2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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theprestige said:
LOL.

China: Coronavirus since November, 3,158 deaths so far (~789 deaths/month)

US: Coronavirus since December, 31 deaths so far (~10 deaths/month)
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Deaths from the flu so far this year in the US- 33,000


This overreaction is hurting us a lot more than the virus.
 
Marcus said:
Deaths from the flu so far this year in the US- 33,000


This overreaction is hurting us a lot more than the virus.
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Does anyone know how many people in China have died of the flu, so far, this season?

How about Iran? Italy?
 
Marcus said:
Deaths from the flu so far this year in the US- 33,000


This overreaction is hurting us a lot more than the virus.
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One of these pathogens is not like the other. You aren't looking at the COVID consequences if you are only comparing total deaths. And we don't know yet what the actual number of deaths will be.
 
Denmark, Wednesday night: 514 cases, 2 in intensive care, so far no deaths, but ...
All schools, high schools, universities will be closed for the next two weeks. All public servants with non-essential jobs are to stay home, all bars and discotheques are asked to close down for the time being ...
Breaking ...
Denmark soon to enter new 'mitigation' phase of coronavirus battle (The Local, 11 March 2020, 15:13 CET+01:00)
Denmark shuts down schools and universities to fight coronavirus pandemic (The Local, 11 March 2020, 21:07 CET+01:00)

COPENHAGEN (Reuters) - Denmark will close all schools and universities and will start sending home all employees in the public sector with non-critical jobs in the coming days to curb the spread of the coronavirus, the prime minister said on Wednesday.
Denmark shuts schools and universities after surge in coronavirus cases (The Star, Thursday, 12 Mar 2020, 4:06 AM MYT - one hour ago)
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dudalb said:
March Madness is one of most popular annual sporting events;and the audience rooting for their teams is a big part of the excitement. GOing to be a fiasco without that.
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Yes. The Koshien High School Baseball tournament might even be the most popular annual sporting event. And now it’s cancelled.
 
Marcus said:
Deaths from the flu so far this year in the US- 33,000


This overreaction is hurting us a lot more than the virus.
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33k with vaccines and meds like Tamiflu. Corona has none of that and is just starting to spread.
 
JeanTate said:
Does anyone know how many people in China have died of the flu, so far, this season?

How about Iran? Italy?
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Total deaths in China from coronavirus as of today, 3,158. Total deaths in the world,4,607. Compare that to flu deaths, just in the US, only this year, 33,000.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


ETA: I haven't found the number of flu deaths in China, but it being much larger than the US, I would expect the flu deaths to be more.
 
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Marcus said:
Deaths from the flu so far this year in the US- 33,000


This overreaction is hurting us a lot more than the virus.
Click to expand...

The per capita death rate for the flu (about 0.1% for the high-end estimate) is much lower than nearly every estimate of the per capita death rate for corona (1% to 3%, some sources even higher).

In the past week, the number of corona cases outside of China has tripled. China seems to have contained it, but China implemented restrictions far beyond what most governments could do.

That's the concern. The flu is bad, but if corona is not contained, it will be much worse, soon. That, and due to the issues with test being in short supply, we are still operating with insufficient information. Until we get much better information, great caution seems prudent.
 
Marcus said:
Total deaths in China from coronavirus as of today, 3,158. Total deaths in the world,4,607. Compare that to deaths, just in the US, only this year, 33,000.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
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Yes. But China has taken the most extreme measures to prevent the virus spreading - the very measures that you complain are worse than the disease.

How do you figure that these deaths would not be substantially different without the measures?
 
Sherkeu said:
You can't compare Italy to the US. Italians use public transport MUCH more than we do, as does much of Europe. Using rail and bus to get around town is essentially non-existent here for the majority of Americans.

For that, you'd need a similarly cold weather place with packed subways, like New York or Massachusetts. And let's go look at the map where we have larger numbers per capita.... NY and MA! Seems to fit. D.C. is primed for it too.

The rest of the country cannot compare. For California to be on par, we should have double the east coast cases by now, even more with our demographics and airport hubs to Asia, but we are at less than half. Most of them in Silicon Valley, as could be predicted with so much travel to China/Korea going on there.

My prediction: CA will get more cases, but there will be no 'crisis' here like Italy. Not even close to it.
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Something to look forward to. I'm keeping a full tank of gas in the car, even if I have to touch that gas pump twice as much and get cooties.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
One of these pathogens is not like the other. You aren't looking at the COVID consequences if you are only comparing total deaths. And we don't know yet what the actual number of deaths will be.
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I agree with of all of these statements. The consequences from coronavirus are already far reaching, the artists and musicians I know, including myself, are in trouble, and anyone with a retirement account with a stock component has seen the numbers decline drastically. The biggest problem is the panic though.


For the numbers of deaths in the US to rival those of the flu, it would have to get much worse than it is in China.
 
From NPR earlier today As Coronavirus In China Wanes, Italy, South Korea See Brunt Of Epidemic (my hilite):

In China, where the epidemic began, the daily case numbers continue to drop. On Wednesday, just 24 new infections were reported, 10 of which involve people who had traveled abroad, suggesting a lower rate of community transmission, according to health authorities.
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I wonder how many, if any, of those ten came from the US?
 
Thanks.

Marcus said:
Total deaths in China from coronavirus as of today, 3,158. Total deaths in the world,4,607. Compare that to flu deaths, just in the US, only this year, 33,000.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
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My hilite.

Do you mean 2020? Or this flu season (which began some time late in 2019)?

ETA: I haven't found the number of flu deaths in China, but it being much larger than the US, I would expect the flu deaths to be more.
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OTOH, given all the lockdowns etc in China these last few months, perhaps the number of flu deaths "this year" is much lower that it would otherwise have been?

I'm trying to follow your logic here: if it were Ebola instead of the coronavirus, would you still make the same comparison? If not, why not?
 
Marcus said:
I agree with of all of these statements. The consequences from coronavirus are already far reaching, the artists and musicians I know, including myself, are in trouble, and anyone with a retirement account with a stock component has seen the numbers decline drastically. The biggest problem is the panic though.


For the numbers of deaths in the US to rival those of the flu, it would have to get much worse than it is has been so far in China.
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FTFY :)
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
:popcorn1

Don't forget you can't see what you don't test for. How many cases do you think are currently circulating?

Official hopes for coronavirus containment fade in California – Los Angeles Times

I can't open the article unless I want to turn adblock off.
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Oh, for sure we have a lot more cases (in fact, I have the symptoms right now so who knows?). Haven't tested hardly anyone! :mad:
However, if it were spreading here like the places with public transport and cold weather did, we'd have our hospitals slammed with cases by now. But we don't.

I think it is just much slower to spread here and milder when it hits.

I'd say CA has at least 5,000 infections (if we tested everyone), most with mild symptoms or none at all. I bet we had hundreds that came back with it directly.
'Back in the day' people came out west specifically because of respiratory issues. Good weather helps, even if you are already sick.
 
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angrysoba said:
Yes. But China has taken the most extreme measures to prevent the virus spreading - the very measures that you complain are worse than the disease.

How do you figure that these deaths would not be substantially different without the measures?
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I don't deny that less restrictive measures would mean more deaths. It's a matter of perspective, though. In the same way that making cars illegal would eliminate highway deaths, locking down the country every winter would cut down on those hundreds of thousands of flu deaths.


Coronavirus is different because it's new and very newsworthy (and facebook worthy). A panic has been inspired that is out of proportion with the danger.
 
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