2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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JeanTate said:
I think North Korea is still saying, officially, that there are no cases. Yet didn’t I read a report that, in fact, many hundred have died from it?

Anyone have very likely reliable sources which say, one way or the other?
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I was curious about this yesterday and read a bunch of 'stuff'.
Officially, they have not had a single case yet Kim himself went onto isolation for a while.

Reliably? I think these facts are reliable:
N. Korea is on a serious lockdown.
Schools closed 30 days.
Major public spaces closed.
Tourism closed. Borders basically sealed for anything other than trade.
Events canceled, such as their Marathon.
Military drills delayed.
Foreigners were quarantined 30 days, then shipped out.
Everyone, at least in Pyongyang, wears a mask. (They don't film anywhere else!)

Less reliable:
China has sent a ton of supplies and techs in there, quietly. (seems like a smart move for them though, right?)
Anyone violating quarantine rules can be executed.
They are closely monitoring about 10k cases.


What exactly is going on inside there? Who knows.
They have little ability to handle such a health crisis, yet great ability to handle movements of their citizens and quarantine sections of the country.

Anyone want to take a guess? It's a viral crapshoot in my mind.
 
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crescent said:
Meanwhile, the dystopian nightmare known as "Germany", with its disaster of a socialist health care system, has drive through coronavirus testing. So does South Korea.

This gets equally worrisome and embarrassing. We (the USA) really, really need to get on the ball about rolling out the tests and testing as many people as possible. Start to get proactive, rather than wondering where it will pop up next after people get sick.
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According to that article, the UK is doing it too. Glad that Germany and UK are following South Korea's lead on this.
 
Tero said:
I have books and articles on viruses on hand and none of them give a good explanation of what mechanism or condition ends an epidemic. Climate moisture etc are hinted at.

That link just above by Planigale seems to assume that the entire adult population is exposed to it. But that would not actually happen, as there are people with little contact to others.

If all are is exposed, then yes, the epidemic wkuld end, as there are no more new bodies to enter.

Unlike flu (could get more virulent if it went past 12 months) SARS/Corona type is not thought to mutate much, so that would not end it.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-coronavirus-isnt-contained/

leaves only transmission slowed down by a lot (at say summer) as a mechanism to stop it suddenly, or by July in the best case.
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Host immunity. Once a significant proportion of the population has had the infection and recovered they cannot get infected again and so the disease will not propagate. Yes there may be isolated populations that escape infection, but small populations cannot maintain circulation of the infection. The critical and uncertain question is, how effective is immunity? The virus does not rapidly mutate (unlike flu) so probably cannot evade the immune system that way, but it does appear that it does not provoke a long lasting immune response like RSV. That means that it probably can continue to circulate, but in a predominantly partially immune population so mortality will be much lower.
 
crescent said:
Meanwhile, the dystopian nightmare known as "Germany", with its disaster of a socialist health care system, has drive through coronavirus testing. So does South Korea.

This gets equally worrisome and embarrassing. We (the USA) really, really need to get on the ball about rolling out the tests and testing as many people as possible. Start to get proactive, rather than wondering where it will pop up next after people get sick.
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This is a question that the US needs to ask. In the UK testing is now so universal that if you have an influenza like illness you will be tested for covid-19 regardless of travel or contact history; it is now routine. Locally if your test is in the lab before 10 AM the result will be out by 4 PM. (Practically that means a next day result.) I find it unbelievable that the US has issues with testing weeks after Europe has it available.

Whilst I cannot speak for the rest of Europe in England during WW2 there was the recognition that public health laboratories were needed to test for TB, food and water quality etc. This resulted in the public health laboratory service. These were laboratories that did public health microbiology but also did microbiology for local hospitals particularly virology. In addition to laboratory scientists they also had some epidemiologists. They were able to develop the national reference laboratories as they were a national service rather than being local. Despite NHS reforms the laboratory service managed to stay as a national service under the label of Public Health England but morphed into clinical and health protection services. This meant there was still a national laboratory service that could develop and rapidly distribute testing, closely tied into epidemiologists and local health protection units. Despite the name changes over eighty odd years the need for a national integrated laboratory and public health service separate from hospital services has been clear. (FWIW they also are responsible for the laboratories at Porton Down where chemical and biological warfare agents are managed together with high risk pathogens such as Ebola.) For US readers it is as if the state public health component to do with infection (and chemical and nuclear) were federalised and part of a national service although having local departments that delivered local services (including contracting with hospitals to provide laboratory services).
 
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Nigel Farage Tweeted

The World Health Organisation is just another club of ‘clever people’ who want to bully and tell us what to do. Ignore.
 
Capsid said:
Yes it can infect other species. Given it’s zoonotic potential it’s not surprising....
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But when you jump species, the pathogen may not be well adapted right away to the new species so it may not be efficient spreading the pathogen forward.
 
Captain_Swoop said:
Boris says it might be best if we just 'grit our teeth' and bear it. Let it run it's course unchecked, get it over quick and do the least economic damage.
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Short sighted no to notice what that would do to overburden the NHS and kill off a lot of people with unrelated medical problems.

For example, with no blood drives our blood bank is seriously short of blood.
 
White House Says They Are Taking No Coronavirus Safety Precautions

White House Press Secretary Stephanie Grisham is denying that they are taking any safety precautions to prevent the spread of coronavirus.

Grisham said in a statement provided to PoliticusUSA, “Reports that the White House has issued formal guidelines to staff instructing them to limit in-person interactions and meetings are completely false. While we have asked all Americans to exercise common-sense hygiene measures, we are conducting business as usual. I want to remind the media once again to be responsible with all reporting.
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https://www.politicususa.com/2020/03/09/white-house-coronavirus-safety-precautions.html
 
Maybe the Trump stuff could go in the thread about Trump and coronavirus, because this is about the disease, not another Trump thread.
 
deadrose said:
More interesting news, it looks as if all the cases here stem from that one original case who had traveled to Wuhan.

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1236799358718185472
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Reading further down, there are a lot of 'official' recommendations and policies not to test.

I can agree with this: It puts staff at risk to test and one criteria for testing is to guide clinical decisions. Clinical decisions wouldn't change if you just assume it is COVID re quarantine.

On the other hand, what a way to let the public trust fall off a cliff. :mad:
 
The Atheist said:
Maybe the Trump stuff could go in the thread about Trump and coronavirus, because this is about the disease, not another Trump thread.
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Kind of hard to keep the POTUS' disastrous beliefs and actions out of the discussion. It's not like Trump lives on and rules his own island.
 
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Meanwhile, the children aspect is still unknown, with what seems like two competing theories, as per this Wired article: https://www.wired.com/story/kids-can-get-covid-19-they-just-dont-get-that-sick/

Specifically, these options:

As people age, that lung environment changes. It gets pelted with pollen and pollution and the body responds with inflammation. A history of inflammation may impact how well you do with coronaviruses.
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[T]hat somehow kids may be leveraging their previous immune responses to the cold-causing coronaviruses they’re constantly being assaulted with.
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Option 1 seems the lest likely to me. Like everywhere, China has high susceptibility to hayfever, and Wuhan has a rate of
19.3%
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. Add to that, the fact that cities in China have horribly polluted air, and I think if option 1 were correct, we'd be seeing plenty of very sick kids, and we are not.

Option 2 makes more sense - in winter, there isn't a minute where kids aren't coughing, sneezing and blowing their noses in class, and colds sweep through schools. Maybe kids are somehow parlaying their constant exposure of mild coronaviruses in the fight against Covid-19?

That would also explain part of the reason why the very old are more susceptible - kids are potentially kept away from granny when they have a cold, so their exposure is much less.

I also wonder if vitamin D is a factor, because it just doesn't seem to be as catching in the summer countries as the winter ones, and kids obviously spend more time in the sun in general terms.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
It's not like Trump lives on and rules his own island.
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While that's true, there is a whole thread dedicated to just Trump and Covid-19, so it seems a bit unnecessary to pollute this thread with his incessant Tweets.

I'd rather discuss the actual disease here.
 
The Atheist said:
Meanwhile, the children aspect is still unknown, with what seems like two competing theories, as per this Wired article: https://www.wired.com/story/kids-can-get-covid-19-they-just-dont-get-that-sick/

Specifically, these options:





Option 1 seems the lest likely to me. Like everywhere, China has high susceptibility to hayfever, and Wuhan has a rate of . Add to that, the fact that cities in China have horribly polluted air, and I think if option 1 were correct, we'd be seeing plenty of very sick kids, and we are not.

Option 2 makes more sense - in winter, there isn't a minute where kids aren't coughing, sneezing and blowing their noses in class, and colds sweep through schools. Maybe kids are somehow parlaying their constant exposure of mild coronaviruses in the fight against Covid-19?

That would also explain part of the reason why the very old are more susceptible - kids are potentially kept away from granny when they have a cold, so their exposure is much less.

I also wonder if vitamin D is a factor, because it just doesn't seem to be as catching in the summer countries as the winter ones, and kids obviously spend more time in the sun in general terms.
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A fairly recent meta-study supports the idea that vitamin D protects vs respiratory diseases (eg flu) by helping the immune system:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5yVGmfivAk&t=652s
 
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