2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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The Atheist said:
Yet the kids didn't pass it on to many others, or the rate would have continued. I think that means asymptomatic cases don't pass it on readily.

And yes, getting kids to understand social distancing ain't gonna happen.

We have a few kids at the local schools wearing masks all day. I even saw a fat boy running in one the other day and he was struggling so much he took it off and threw it away.
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Yep, that seems to be the case. Kids don't get near as sick as older adults, or even young adults. Seems reasonable they don't shed as much virii as adults. And their R0, while it didn't decrease, was much lower than adults. Hence they didn't keep overall population R0 from getting reduced. We are lucky.
 
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Worldometer has nice page about different methods of estimating mortality: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#who-03-03-20

It mentions different studies done in China, how the time from detection to death is important, it also compares the data with method death/(death+recovered) and so on.

Generally it's just too soon to tell. But it ends on high note:

Finally, we shall remember that while the 2003 SARS epidemic was still ongoing, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported a fatality rate of 4% (or as low as 3%), whereas the final case fatality rate ended up being 9.6%.
 
Captain_Swoop said:
Boris says it might be best if we just 'grit our teeth' and bear it. Let it run it's course unchecked, get it over quick and do the least economic damage.
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The UK has a certain reputation in the USA of being filled with masochists. "Oh, oh whip me on the bum again... please!" Some of the opinions offered during Brexit intensified this stereotype. "It will be glorious! We will all join and suffer together just like during the Blitz."

Is Boris into this too?
 
US FDA has issued a warning that Scam Artist/Snake Oil Salesmen will attempt to cash in on the virus by peddling phony cures.Sadly, we have already seen a little of that, we will see a lot more. Jude Law in "Contagion" has many real world counterparts.
 
dudalb said:
US FDA has issued a warning that Scam Artist/Snake Oil Salesmen will attempt to cash in on the virus by peddling phony cures.Sadly, we have already seen a little of that, we will see a lot more. Jude Law in "Contagion" has many real world counterparts.
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It's funny. The reason I don't like him may be just that one movie :D
 
Dr.Sid said:
It's funny. The reason I don't like him may be just that one movie :D
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Law has been doing quite a few villians ever since ;most recently in Marvel's "Captain Marvel".
And at the performance of COntagion I attenend, the audience cheered the scene where he gets busted.
 
Boston, the most Irish city in America, just cancelled it's St Patrick's Day parade because of the virus.
God, it has to be really serious for that to happen....
 
Giordano said:
The UK has a certain reputation in the USA of being filled with masochists. "Oh, oh whip me on the bum again... please!" Some of the opinions offered during Brexit intensified this stereotype. "It will be glorious! We will all join and suffer together just like during the Blitz."

Is Boris into this too?
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No, he is a millionaire with properties abroad, he can clear off and wait it out.
 
And Seattle has cancelled its annual Friends of the Library book sale, which means it is Really Serious here. Comic-con was understandable, since Con Crud is already a well-known phenomenon. The annual Womxn's (their spelling) March was disappointing, but to separate Seattle from the most anticipated event outside of Christmas? From their beloved books? That's tantamount to sending around the daily Dead Collection cart.
 
theprestige said:
dudalb said:
Boston, the most Irish city in America, just cancelled it's St Patrick's Day parade because of the virus.
God, it has to be really serious for that to happen....
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Or the Boston Irish are melodramatic duncebags.
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Mebbe.

Then again, mebbe not.

OTOH, we just had 5 new cases reported today in Wake County, all of whom brought it back from a Biogen conference they had attended in Boston at the end of February.

Also, from the same report;

More than two dozen people around the country who attended the Boston conference Feb. 24-27 have tested positive for the virus, including an Indiana resident. The Indiana patient also spent time at Biogen’s Research Triangle Park office last week before driving home, Wake officials said Monday.
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theprestige said:
Or the Boston Irish are melodramatic duncebags.
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I don’t think so. It is hardly unique around the world.

A lot of events around the world are being cancelled or are going ahead behind closed doors.

The Six Nations rugby tournament, the sumo tournament here in Osaka is taking place with no spectators, and the baseball season is being delayed. All the schools are closed, and oh...Not sure if you heard this but the whole of Italy is in lockdown now.

We’re expecting some announcement in Japan today. Not sure what it is yet....
 
I think North Korea is still saying, officially, that there are no cases. Yet didn’t I read a report that, in fact, many hundred have died from it?

Anyone have very likely reliable sources which say, one way or the other?
 
Giordano said:
The UK has a certain reputation in the USA of being filled with masochists. "Oh, oh whip me on the bum again... please!" Some of the opinions offered during Brexit intensified this stereotype. "It will be glorious! We will all join and suffer together just like during the Blitz."

Is Boris into this too?
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No, I think he is going for the "blood, toil, tears and sweat" message. Unlike the Potus he is going for 'things are going to be a disaster'; if they are a disaster he told the truth and did the best he could, if they are not a disaster he saved the country. In the short term he can probably get the country to rally around which if things go badly he needs, and if it doesn't he has lost nothing. FWIW I think he is probably right, expect to hear comments about how we got through the Blitz and we can get through Corona virus.
 
Latest word from the nursing home in Kirkland. They got the results back from 35 more tests. 31 were positive, 1 was negative, and 3 were "inconclusive". Yes, they're still trying to test the residents. That should tell you something about the availability of actual tests.

Of the 20 deaths so far in the county, 19 of them have been from this nursing home. Two of the new positives were people who died before their test results came back.
 
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deadrose said:
....Yes, they're still trying to test the residents. That should tell you something about the availability of actual tests....
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Meanwhile, the dystopian nightmare known as "Germany", with its disaster of a socialist health care system, has drive through coronavirus testing. So does South Korea.

This gets equally worrisome and embarrassing. We (the USA) really, really need to get on the ball about rolling out the tests and testing as many people as possible. Start to get proactive, rather than wondering where it will pop up next after people get sick.
 
crescent said:
Meanwhile, the dystopian nightmare known as "Germany", with its disaster of a socialist health care system, has drive through coronavirus testing. So does South Korea.

This gets equally worrisome and embarrassing. We (the USA) really, really need to get on the ball about rolling out the tests and testing as many people as possible. Start to get proactive, rather than wondering where it will pop up next after people get sick.
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This is the Trump era version of proactive. Wait long enough and everyone who is going to get sick will have.

Think of all the money saved from not doing needless tests.

Thanks, Donnie.
 
I have books and articles on viruses on hand and none of them give a good explanation of what mechanism or condition ends an epidemic. Climate moisture etc are hinted at.

That link just above by Planigale seems to assume that the entire adult population is exposed to it. But that would not actually happen, as there are people with little contact to others.

If all are is exposed, then yes, the epidemic wkuld end, as there are no more new bodies to enter.

Unlike flu (could get more virulent if it went past 12 months) SARS/Corona type is not thought to mutate much, so that would not end it.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-coronavirus-isnt-contained/

leaves only transmission slowed down by a lot (at say summer) as a mechanism to stop it suddenly, or by July in the best case.
 
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