Why Trump will be reelected

Upchurch said:
This.

I made what I thought was a rational plea aimed towards the Bernie-Bro that, he wins the nomination, Biden is the best chance to get rid of Trump and maybe it would be best to not demonize him if you are going to have to end up voting for him.

Based on the feedback I got from that, I think it's safe to say that Trump has it in the bag.
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I have no doubt that Bernie and his supporters will be blamed for any loss regardless of who the candidate is. It'll either be Bernie's fault because he's too left and moderates won't vote for him, or it'll be Bernie's fault because the Bernie bros didn't turn out for Biden.
 
Parsman said:
I want to make it clear, I am not a fan our our current health care system. I am just very skeptical that M4A, and not allowing any private opitions for health care, is the way to go.
Seems to me we are falsely limiting it to just two choices.
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Why would it be just the two choices? We have had the NHS in the UK for more than 70 years now which covers everyone out of taxation. Despite what some people say it is a good system, if I get in a serious accident and am badly injured or if I develop a long term health condition I will be treated free and for as long as it takes. However if I felt that the care wasn't sufficient I could take out private insurance or pay to go private. Available health care for all doesn't stop there being a private sector and if it is as good in the USA as some Americans seem to think why shouldn't it continue to thrive in a joint system?
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You're right... it shouldn't be limited to just 2 systems. The problem is, the plan that Sanders is proposing (and that many BernieBros here are championing DOES eliminate private insurance. It appears to be completely ideological.
 
This is Bernie's last chance, and there's nobody else like him. If we're not going to elect him in 2020, why even bother voting? Biden, Trump... It's establishment turtles all the way down. Might as well just stay home until AOC comes of age.
 
Upchurch said:
This.

I made what I thought was a rational plea aimed towards the Bernie-Bro that, he wins the nomination, Biden is the best chance to get rid of Trump and maybe it would be best to not demonize him if you are going to have to end up voting for him.

Based on the feedback I got from that, I think it's safe to say that Trump has it in the bag.
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Bernie Bros aren't rational, nor were they ever going to vote for anyone in the party but Bernie, and most of them probably weren't doing that. They are a demographically irrelevant but loud group of uncontrollable nihilistic internet trolls who mostly serve as an excuse for people to dismiss anything remotely antagonistic coming from Bernie supporters. That said...

One of the features of a primary is to get the oppo out before the general. This is happening now. If Biden's prospects in the general are crippled by something coming up in early March then maybe people need to re-evaluate him as a candidate. Or maybe he needs to punt his advisers.

Biden supporters seem to want Bernie supporters to enable their denial by not bringing up issues that will certainly be brought up in the general. As if that makes it all go away when he is up on stage with Trump and stammering out nonsense.

The only way he gets rid of these rumors of cognitive decline is to get on stage for a debate and hold his own. He got to sneak through the last two under the radar because of the number of candidates and Bloomberg as a lightning rod. He got to just pop in with decent energy and semi-canned lines.

I figure he's going to go down in flames unless his camp negotiates a debate format that limits how much he has to think on his feet and how long he has to be up there.
 
Upchurch said:
I wonder if Putin giggles. I bet he's giggling.
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What takes Putin's plan from "evil" to "evil genius" is that by installing Trump he's given American progressives no choice but to go along with his plot to further polarize and divide the nation. If I were him, I'd be giggling for sure. In between my deepwater diving and pen-balancing sessions.
 
Suddenly said:
Bernie Bros aren't rational, nor were they ever going to vote for anyone in the party but Bernie, and most of them probably weren't doing that. They are a demographically irrelevant but loud group of uncontrollable nihilistic internet trolls who mostly serve as an excuse for people to dismiss anything remotely antagonistic coming from Bernie supporters. That said...
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I certainly hope this is true.

Suddenly said:
Biden supporters seem to want Bernie supporters to enable their denial by not bringing up issues that will certainly be brought up in the general. As if that makes it all go away when he is up on stage with Trump and stammering out nonsense.
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I should clarify that I'm a Warren supporter who finds himself in a position to choose between two candidates I'm not-at-all enthusiastic about. I don't want the criticisms of Biden to stop, just the demonization. Despite my disappointment at Warren dropping out, my priority remains getting rid of the Orange *******.
 
d4m10n said:
That appears to be the plan, once again.

No idea how widely the sentiment is shared this time around, but I'm guessing it's at least as bad as before.
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Yes, this is a good reminder that a poorly run campaign by the Democratic party will blame Bernie bros rather than themselves.

25% of Clinton voters in 2008 voted for McCain. Sanders voters did not defect at an unusually high level, rather quite the opposite.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/24/16194086/bernie-trump-voters-study
 
The one and only reason why it currently looks like Trump has a decent chance of winning is the fact that the Democrat establishment might succeed in their quest to give him the easiest imaginable opponent again.
 
Delvo said:
The one and only reason why it currently looks like Trump has a decent chance of winning is the fact that the Democrat establishment might succeed in their quest to give him the easiest imaginable opponent again.
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Because it's super hard to elect old white former VPs to the Presidency, whereas a young black guy with the middle name "Hussain" would be a cake walk?

What does that even mean?
 
SuburbanTurkey said:
25% of Clinton voters in 2008 voted for McCain. Sanders voters did not defect at an unusually high level, rather quite the opposite.
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Are you implicitly arguing that Clinton and McCain are (at least roughly) as close together ideologically and politically as Sanders and Trump? If not, why do you think 2008 is a useful comparison here?

Seems to me that Sanders and Trump are vastly further apart than the Senators from NY and AZ who worked together on various bipartisan efforts. Between that and increasing levels of negative partisanship across the board, we should have expected a sharp decline in defection from the losing Democrat to the GOP nominee.

SuburbanTurkey said:
...a poorly run campaign by the Democratic party will blame Bernie bros rather than themselves.
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Had McCain won, would you have held the #PUMA voters blameless?
 
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d4m10n said:
Are you implicitly arguing that Clinton and McCain are (at least roughly) as close together ideologically and politically as Sanders and Trump? If not, why do you think 2008 is a useful comparison here?

Seems to me that Sanders and Trump are vastly further apart than the Senators from NY and AZ who worked together on various bipartisan efforts. Between that and increasing levels of negative partisanship across the board, we should have expected a sharp decline in defection from the losing Democrat to the GOP nominee.
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I'm saying that Sander's defectors in the general were not a deciding factor. Some level of defection is normal, and it seems that Sanders defectors were quite small. If anything, Sanders supporters were more party-loyal than normal.

HRC apologists are only looking at these numbers because they are desperate to explain why the margins were so close in these pivotal states. It couldn't be that HRC was a weak candidate that did not adequately prioritize these states. No, it's the bad man that did it.

Bernie spoilers is a myth that establishment dems tell themselves so they don't have look inward and question why they lost the race.

d4m10n said:
Had McCain won, would you have held the #PUMA voters blameless?
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I think such a framing fundamentally misunderstands the voter-candidate relationship. Voters don't owe a candidate their vote. Candidates have to earn them.
 
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SuburbanTurkey said:
I'm saying that Sander's defectors in the general were not a deciding factor.
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Any factor that put Trump over the top in key swing states is a deciding factor, by definition. Once again, here are the numbers:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/900164807961305088

This doesn't mean that other factors such as the Comey announcement or "HRC was a weak candidate" are necessarily ruled out. There need not be exactly one deciding factor in a close election.

SuburbanTurkey said:
I think such a framing fundamentally misunderstands the voter-candidate relationship. Voters don't owe a candidate their vote.
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Since you dodged the question by bringing up an unrelated issue, I'll put you down for blameless.
 
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d4m10n said:
Any factor that put Trump over the top in key swing states is a deciding factor, by definition. Once again, here are the numbers:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/900164807961305088
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Yes, and traffic was the reason I was late to work today. Sure, I overslept and left 20 minutes late, but if there wasn't the normal amount of traffic, I would have made it. I mean, there was less traffic than normal, but it wasn't 0 traffic, so it was a deciding factor in my lateness.

Should I blame traffic for being late? Of course not. But if there was no traffic, I wouldn't have been late.

Defecting primary voters are a constant of political life. Sanders voters were actually more loyal than most to the party. They didn't cost Hillary the election.

If PUMA voters had cost Obama the election, I'd have serious questions to the viability of an Obama candidate. I'd wonder why so many voters found him unacceptable, or at the least preferred McCain. Primary voters aren't slaves to the party.
 
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Great. Who to blame when Trump is re-elected is a far, far, far secondary concern to him not getting re-elected.

To use the traffic metaphor when I'm dying of a heart attack in the back of an ambulance and the ambulance driver looks back and goes "Don't worry, it's not my fault, the drawbridge is up"... my heart is going to magically fix itself.
 
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SuburbanTurkey said:
Yes, and traffic was the reason I was late to work today.
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I get that you want to pin everything on HRC, as if she was totally in the driver's seat, but I don't think this analogy really works for me. Everyone who deliberately affected the outcome bears moral responsibility here, including the Bernie voters who went for Trump.
 
SuburbanTurkey said:
25% of Clinton voters in 2008 voted for McCain. Sanders voters did not defect at an unusually high level, rather quite the opposite.
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Yes its true.... a lot of Clinton supporters ended up voting for McCain, even more so than BernieBros supporting Trump.

But here's the thing: McCain would have at least been competent. As Obama said, "I think I was right and Mitt Romney and John McCain were wrong on certain policy issues, but I never thought that they couldn’t do the job.".

Compare that to the BernieBros who ended up supporting Trump... Not only are they picking someone who is even further away from the policies that Sanders was proposing, they were picking someone who was clearly unsuitable for the job: A racist con-artist who was a habitual liar.

As an analogy, the Clinton/McCain situation is like wanting a Big Mac and finding out your local McDonalds is closed, so you go to Burger King for a whopper instead. On the other hand, the Sanders/Trump situation is like wanting a Big Mac, finding the McDonald's is closed, and deciding to eat a dead bird you found on the side of the road.
 
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