Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

[William Parcher]

Unless the US reports its numbers to the WHO, or let's their experts on the ground, it can't get accurate numbers. And we know that this administration isn't interested in getting accurate numbers.

It looks like the hospitals are reporting numbers directly to the press. If this is true then you only need to look at national news to get the numbers.

 

[William Parcher]

I don't know if it was mentioned here that there is a new case in Berkeley, California.

 

[The Atheist]

I wonder too if "self isolation" is good enough to prevent accidental transmission.

You have to hope so, since that's the prime method of control currently in play in NZ, Aussie, UK and several other places.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Unfortunately, the WHO has to tread carefully, politically - it would be dangerous to its funding to piss off the Trump administration.
So it might be that they are for now waiting for the US to report to it instead of taking the numbers of local hospitals directly.
Or not, what do I know?

 

[William Parcher]

So...

Breaking news.

It is now being estimated that the virus can exist on hard surfaces (which have not been sterilised) for up to nine days.

Way upthread it was said by posters that shipped packages would not be dangerous. Are all bets off on that now?

 

[Meadmaker]

Way upthread it was said by posters that shipped packages would not be dangerous. Are all bets off on that now?

I read today on the WHO site that the type of surface matters. Apparently cardboard and paper aren't virus-friendly. It doesn't match my intuition, but that's what they said.

 

[Ulf Nereng]

Very interesting perspective about to be given by the UK, with tests on thousands of intensive care patients to be undertaken to see if it's slipped under the radar.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...nsive-care-patients-to-be-tested-for-covid-19

Plus, if you want to kill someone, during the peak epidemic period looks to be the go:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-be-halted-if-coronavirus-hits-police-numbers

Police are not the only ones. A newsreport this morning mentioned that a firestation had been closed because the firefighters had been in close contact with a confirmed corona patient. Both police and firefighters are often first responders, bringing patients to hospitals.

 

[The Atheist]

And massive growth in numbers today - a 40% increase on yesterday's new case load.

That is not good, plus we're in a situation that probably ten times as many people are out and about with it, spreading it like mad.

Current doubling of official cases took three days.

I think we're very near the point that only hospital admissions and deaths are worth counting.

Might be worth going to China!

 

[Minoosh]

I'm a little bit of a contrarian when it comes to epidemics. I figure a lot of people may be spared infection by *not* going to urgent care of other clinical setting. A waiting room full of sick people seems like a likely place to be exposed. If you take public transport, even more so. For the vast majority of people, one's own immune system is up to the task of fighting the infection. Statistically, observing basic public health hygiene may be the most effective/efficient way to control the spread. It's good to have some testing, obviously, for purposes of tracking the contagion, but not just to assuage the fears of the worried well-ish.

I'm heading out to the grocery store soon and it will probably be the most dangerous place I'll go to this week. I'm not tutoring or subbing this quarter; that helps. With every new batch of kids I experience a low-level immune response, usually without actually getting sick.

But, not knowing if you're contagious while walking around feeling fine is a problem.

In schools now the etiquette is to sneeze/cough in the crook of your elbow. Covering your hand with your mouth was terrible advice. Frequent handwashing/hand sanitizing is also observed, at least by the staff. The kiddos I'm not so sure about.

 

[Roboramma]

The prediction at the forecasting website Good Judgement Project at the moment on the question of how many confirmed cases there will be by March 20th has "between 100,000 and 200,000" at 71%.

More than 200,000 is sitting at only 17%.

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/15...d-health-organization-who-as-of-20-march-2020

They have 10 Coronavirus related questions. The crowd forecasts have a history of being pretty accurate. For those interested you can also try your hand at making some predictions and see how your estimate of the situation as it stands turns out. Some of the other forecasters also offer commentary, and you can see how accurate they've been in the past, though I think you can only see other people's comments and statistics if you sign up on the site (it's free, the data is used in Tetlock's forecasting studies).

 

[William Parcher]

I read today on the WHO site that the type of surface matters. Apparently cardboard and paper aren't virus-friendly. It doesn't match my intuition, but that's what they said.

Okay so the virus is not on the box. It's on the iPhone that's inside the box.

 

[William Parcher]

CNN: Amazon employee in Seattle is down with disease.

 

[Roboramma]

Not sure if this has been posted yet. The WHO's "Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)"

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...na-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

A quote:

Much of the global community is not yet ready, in mindset and materially, to implement the measures that have been employed to contain COVID-19 in China. These are the only measures that are currently proven to interrupt or minimize transmission chains in humans. Fundamental to these measures is extremely proactive surveillance to immediately detect cases, very rapid diagnosis and immediate case isolation, rigorous tracking and quarantine of close contacts, and an exceptionally high degree of population understanding and acceptance of these measures.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Many countries have set up mobile testing units that will test people in their home, precisely to avoid them taking public transport to get a stuffed hospital waiting room.

 

[William Parcher]

What do self isolated people do with their trash bags?

What happens if they need a service person like a plumber or electrician or whatever?

 

[Roboramma]

What do self isolated people do with their trash bags?

The same thing they usually do. In this way they might infect the trash man, but he's probably not going to infect them.

What happens if they need a service person like a plumber or electrician or whatever?

Potentially find a way to deal with the issue themselves, or simply deal with the light not working or the faucet dripping. In the case that the situation is a real emergency, give up on isolation and call an electrician. Potentially avoid contact with said service person and attempt to disinfect surfaces after he/she leaves.

If you are pointing out that isolation is an imperfect measure, that doesn't seem particularly interesting. If it can cut down your probability of infection over some period of time X by a factor of 1000 (or even 10) you may judge it to be worth it.

 

[arthwollipot]

What do self isolated people do with their trash bags?

Take them out as usual. Why would this be a problem?

What happens if they need a service person like a plumber or electrician or whatever?

If I believed that I was infected and someone had to come into my house, I would wear a mask and maintain a physical distance while they worked. I don't see why this should be difficult.

 

[arthwollipot]

Heck, I'm an introvert with social anxiety. I'm pretty much voluntarily isolated for much of the time anyway.

 

[alfaniner]

I went to the pharmacy today to pick up some Breath-Rites nasal strips. It just struck me that that's the exact opposite of something you'd want to wear when exposed to the public. However, it's a nighttime thing needed for aiding sleep.

Anyway, I noticed one section nearby was nearly empty. Looking closer I found it was... the antacids. I found that terrifically odd. I can see not having gotten a shipment of a certain brand, but nearly all of them at the same time? Weird. There's nothing about an outbreak yet, but I'd find it interesting if that was a precursor clue to the start of one -- lots of people with upset stomachs.

Oh and I noticed a new quickly assembled temporary warehouse rack in the middle of the aisle, which was (not) stocking... toilet paper.

 

[The Atheist]

Not sure if this has been posted yet. The WHO's "Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)"

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...na-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

A quote:

Yep, that's the drum I've been banging.

I thought China's response was sensible and it's proven highly effective.

As I drove past a headstone shop with my daughter just now, I commented that they'll be doing very good business shortly.

I still see virtually no countries showing any idea of how to handle the tsunami of serious cases they're about to get. Even best-case scenarios look terrible everywhere.