Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

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Wouldn't that be ironic, Mexico closing the US border.

We've now had the second death (70 yr one of the first two patients, in critical care)

News says the number is 12 now, 10 in King County and 2 in Snohomish.
 
There's some speculation the outbreak spread from Evergreen Hospital to the nursing home from a patient who was seen at the hospital then returned to the home.

Stay tuned.

:popcorn1
 
Iran has a fatality rate of 7% according to this.

Iran has thousands more cases than they're saying. I doubt it's even intentional, just the result of pathetically weak government and health systems combined with lack of testing facilities.

They will probably have a higher death rate than developed countries, but other places will do worse.
 
Wouldn't that be ironic, Mexico closing the US border.

We've now had the second death (70 yr one of the first two patients, in critical care)

News says the number is 12 now, 10 in King County and 2 in Snohomish.

If this was in response to my post (I'm not sure), but I live in Guatemala. Sorry if I assume the wrong post you were responding to!

If so, I was referring to Guatemala closing the border to Mexico and people vsiting from other countries
 
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Iran has thousands more cases than they're saying. I doubt it's even intentional, just the result of pathetically weak government and health systems combined with lack of testing facilities.

They will probably have a higher death rate than developed countries, but other places will do worse.

^^^And This^^^ If this hits my country we are royally F'D. No strong central gov't, massive poverty and VAST areas with little to no health care and sanitary standards.:eek:
 
We're going to Costco tomorrow. My wife has suggested getting some TP. And we'll get some of the Glucerna that's about half her diet.
I'm thinking of sending a message to the stockbroker tomorrow that I'll ride it out like I always have.
 
Wouldn't that be ironic, Mexico closing the US border.

As an aside this is one of those myths that people who always have opinions about the border states but don't live there seem to hold.

In reality Mexico is quite extremely vigorous about enforcing their borders! We were quite surprised by that caravan because as much as mexico likes to unofficially tax those moving south into mexico, they normally are quite brutal about those coming north into mexico
 
Iran has a fatality rate of 7% according to this.

'Unseen and undetected': How Iran became the epicentre for coronavirus in the Middle East
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-...picentre-of-the-coronavirus-outbreak/12014792

I am guessing this will be replicated in countries without the social organisation of western countries or China, or perhaps there is a more virulent strain in Iran.

I wouldn't think so. They just have detect less of the cases. Or report. Dead person is easier to detect. Also it's Iran. Don't waste time thinking about their numbers.
 
I wouldn't think so. They just have detect less of the cases. Or report. Dead person is easier to detect. Also it's Iran. Don't waste time thinking about their numbers.

Yeah, the deputy health minister didn’t even know he had it until he was coughing and spluttering and wiping his brow while denying the scale of the problem was as bad as inside sources said it was.

I’m afraid they rank even lower than Japan so far in their handling of this so we can’t really trust that they have meticulously identified and added the minor cases among the general population.
 
If this was in response to my post (I'm not sure), but I live in Guatemala. Sorry if I assume the wrong post you were responding to!

If so, I was referring to Guatemala closing the border to Mexico and people vsiting from other countries

I did think you lived in Mexico because we have have another member living there. :o
 
Cases outside China have doubled in the past three days.

The previous doubling took four days, the one prior to that five.

The growth is now exponential, and even if extreme measures are taken, it's too late, because it's clear cases have been going undetected.

My guess is an official count of a million cases outside China by 10 March + 2days.

The high rate of increase in confirmed cases outside of China is mostly from increased testing after an initial delay recognizing it in many places. I think the average R0 outside China is around 3 but the incubation average time is 5 to 6 days with the start of symptoms being the most contagious point. There's some catch up then it should follow the R0/5 day ramp.

My SWAG is 50K confirmed by March 12th and probably about 150K more actual but obviously not detected.
 
This will end. This will end. You look at flu season. I said 26,000 people. I never heard of a number like that: 26,000 people, going up to 69,000 people, doctor, you told me before. 69,000 people die every year — from 20 to 69 — every year from the flu. Think of that. That's incredible. So far, the results of all of this that everybody is reading about — and part of the thing is, you want to keep it the way it is, you don't want to see panic, because there's no reason to be panicked about it — but when I mentioned the flu, I asked the various doctors, "Is this just like flu?" Because people die from the flu. And this is very unusual. And it is a little bit different, but in some ways it's easier and in some ways it's a little bit tougher, but we have it so well under control, I mean, we really have done a very good job.

I don't think it's inevitable. It probably will. It possibly will. It could be at a very small level or it could be at a larger level. Whatever happens, we're totally prepared. We have the best people in the world. You see that from the study. We have the best prepared people, the best people in the world. Congress is willing to give us much more than we're even asking for. That's nice for a change. But we are totally ready, willing, and able to — it's a term that we use, it's "ready, willing, and able." It's going to be very well under control. Now, it may get bigger. It may get a little bigger. It may not get bigger at all. We'll see what happens. But regardless of what happens, we're totally prepared.
 
This will end. This will end. You look at flu season. I said 26,000 people. I never heard of a number like that: 26,000 people, going up to 69,000 people, doctor, you told me before. 69,000 people die every year — from 20 to 69 — every year from the flu. Think of that. That's incredible. So far, the results of all of this that everybody is reading about — and part of the thing is, you want to keep it the way it is, you don't want to see panic, because there's no reason to be panicked about it — but when I mentioned the flu, I asked the various doctors, "Is this just like flu?" Because people die from the flu. And this is very unusual. And it is a little bit different, but in some ways it's easier and in some ways it's a little bit tougher, but we have it so well under control, I mean, we really have done a very good job.

I don't think it's inevitable. It probably will. It possibly will. It could be at a very small level or it could be at a larger level. Whatever happens, we're totally prepared. We have the best people in the world. You see that from the study. We have the best prepared people, the best people in the world. Congress is willing to give us much more than we're even asking for. That's nice for a change. But we are totally ready, willing, and able to — it's a term that we use, it's "ready, willing, and able." It's going to be very well under control. Now, it may get bigger. It may get a little bigger. It may not get bigger at all. We'll see what happens. But regardless of what happens, we're totally prepared.


Strong and stable! :thumbsup: ;)
 
But regardless of what happens, we're totally prepared.

I'm hope that's parody, because nobody is prepared for what's happening.

That's fair enough, because no country can afford to have a massive number of intensive care beds & units standing by for a pandemic.

I repeat this again - every 'flu season, hospitals are under extreme pressure.

Covid-19 is at least ten times deadlier than any 'flu this century, and to make it even happier, it's far more contagious because there's no immunity in humans. It also needs massive investment in highly expensive medical technology.

You're in London. See if you can find out how many intensive care beds there are in London, because if the virus infects 50% of people in the first year, London would need to provide at least 250,000 intensive care beds at an average occupancy of at least two weeks. That's 10,000 people at any one time.

Do you think there's anywhere near 10,000 intensive care beds in all UK, let alone London?

I'm not saying that's going to happen - although I fear it probably will - but if it does, claiming to be prepared for it is naive to the extreme. I haven't even taken into account the reduction in working health professionals during the outbreak due to their own infection.

No country on the planet is able to be prepared for this. By far the best plan is to follow China and place harsh restrictions to ensure the peak is no more 10% of the above figures, and even then, all systems would struggle with those numbers.
 
Here's an interesting article in the NYT. (For those that don't have a subscription, you can usually get three free articles a month and it's the first of the month.)

Coronavirus May Have Spread in U.S. for Weeks, Gene Sequencing Suggests

I think someone mentioned that already so here are some relevant excerpts:
Researchers who have examined the genomes of two coronavirus infections in Washington State say the similarities between the cases suggest that the virus may have been spreading in the state for weeks.

...

The first patient, a man in his 30s, has recovered after being treated in a hospital isolation unit. The later patient, a teenager, had a mild enough illness to recuperate at home.

According to a statement by the Snohomish Health District, the teenager was unaware that he was being tested for the coronavirus. His case came to light on Friday because he went to a clinic on Feb. 24 to be tested for the flu, and his sample was shared with the Seattle Flu Study, which tested it for a variety of pathogens including the new coronavirus.

Tests have been performed on about 1,000 samples from the study, Dr. Lindquist said, with only one positive result thus far. “So it’s not like it’s super prevalent,” he said of the virus.
I look at that lab data often during the flu season. Sentinel samples are collected and analyzed and reported as what percent of samples collected were flu and what percentage were something else. It's a great system given it only randomly turned up the teen's coronavirus. He'd gone in and was cultured for flu as part of this sentinel sample monitoring.


On Saturday, local health officials in Seattle said that delays in being able to test for the virus had slowed identification of community cases, meaning those who did not travel to places with major outbreaks or have contact with known patients. “If we had the ability to test earlier, I’m sure we would have been able to identify patients earlier,” said Dr. Jeffrey Duchin, health officer for Seattle and King County.

Of course Trump eliminated funding to be more readily prepared to gear up for such an event, you know, build that wall and all.


Edited by Loss Leader: 
Quoted material edited for length. Please do not make lengthy quotes of materials available elsewhere on the internet.
 
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Yes. Agreed. It will end. And if you are over 60 years old or in poor health or unlucky then you run the risk of it being the end as in the late rjh01.

I could be wrong, but I think the man who said it is almost twenty years over 60.

I'm hope that's parody, because nobody is prepared for what's happening.

Not parody, exactly, but indistinguishable from parody if my hunch about the origins of Matthew Best's post is correct.
 
Does anyone think WHO has become a bit too politically correct about naming conventions for infectious diseases.

It comes across as too generic of a name "coronavirus disease 2019". It makes the public think "coronavirus" is a new type of virus.
 
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