Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

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https://virologydownunder.com/past-time-to-tell-the-public-it-will-probably-go-pandemic-and-we-should-all-prepare-now/

These experts warn of something I was suspecting all along. Too much focus on "containment" is actually harmful, because governments are avoiding pushing towards slowing the spread of the virus, with measures such as the closing of schools etc.

This graph shows quite effectively why we need to focus on slowing efforts, so that health systems don´t collapse:
[IMGw=800]https://virologydownunder.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Fig1_Interim-Pre-Pandemic-Planning-Guidance_CDC_Feb2007-1024x780.png[/IMGw]
 
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One of the few things available to curtail the epidemic is social distancing. Avoiding crowds, movie theaters, churches, and other social gatherings.

But most especially closing schools and day-care. A side effect will be loss of about 1/3'rd the workforce who will be home taking care of these kids. While one can, to some degree, get across hygiene procedures to most adults, this will be far harder with children. So I see closing schools and day-care as highly likely.

And that isn't over-reacting though talking about it now can be seen that way. My SWAG is that there is at least a 90% probability we will see this in limited regions and 50% for more wider outbreaks. This all depends on our ability to detect early and regionally contain things.
 
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The Atheist said:
I'm struggling to understand people can be so stupid. This is an international disaster unfolding and idiotic leaders will just things worse.
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I think that you are infected because you are leaving words out of your sentences. Look at these two.
 
marting said:
Meanwhile it seems that test kits in the US aren't reliable

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/a...ing-of-diseases-spread/ar-BB10nglx?li=BBnbcA1

But in a news briefing that was going on about the same time, Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said that she was “frustrated” about problems with the test kits and that the CDC hoped to send out a new version to state and local health departments soon.

The nation’s public health laboratories, exasperated by the malfunctioning tests in the face of a global public health emergency, have taken the unusual step of appealing to the Food and Drug Administration for permission to develop and use their own tests. In Hawaii, authorities are so alarmed about the lack of testing ability that they requested permission from the CDC to use tests from Japan.


Sheesh
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You can't believe her, she's Rod Rosenstein's sister. Seriously, the far right is all over that.

ETA: Linky
 
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The Atheist said:
.. seems impossible to avoid now - it will change the world.
There won't be a single person untouched by it - everyone will have a relative or friend die....nothing is an over-reaction.
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My home (northern Italy) is 8 km far from two villages in quarantine since last Friday for a couple fatalities each. Almost everybody but the restricted ones are going to work regularly, only schools are suspended till next week. We are possibly surrounded by people who are mild cases or have already overcome the disease, many (many) more than the confirmed cases used to compute that "2%" kill rate that seems to me are mostly the few people so seriously hill to be hospitalized. Frankly, I think you are hysterically over-reacting.
 
alfaniner said:
I have to wonder, seen all the ash-laden Catholics around today, if that tradition is an avenue for transmission? After all, you have one priest grinding his thumb into the forehead of each person in the congregation in turn.



Although, mustaches seem to be very popular among American firefighters.
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Mustaches don't block a seal on a face mask.
 
angrysoba said:
It is pretty big. The school year is until the end of March, though, but a lot of the graduation ceremonies and entrance exams and other events will also close.

I was wondering if anyone had some expert reactions to this news in Japan.

Some people welcome the news here, and others are saying it is a massive over-reaction, but these are lay people who might only be correct by accident.
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And the kids will treat it like a prolonged "Snow Day", kids being kids.
 
A further five people in Sweden have been detected infected by covid-19. This applies to three people in Västra Götaland, one person in the Uppsala Region and one person in the Stockholm region, the Public Health Agency writes in a press release on Thursday evening.
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Employees at the Thermo Fisher Scientific company in Uppsala have been asked not to go to work today. The reason is the risk of corona virus infection, the company writes in an internal email to its employees.

A person working at the American company's Uppsala facility may have been exposed to infection through interaction with an infected person. The visit took place during a trip to Germany.

The approximately 700 employees have been invited to work from home during Thursday in a message sent to them during the night. The facility in Uppsala manufactures allergy test equipment and is located in the Fyrislund industrial area.
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Good God!
 
I live in Sacramento. Just read the news about Vacaville, about 50 Miles up the road. Now I am really getting nervous.
And UC Davis medical center, where they took the patient, is just ten miles away..a suburb of Sacramento.
Fun times.....
 
wea said:
My home (northern Italy) is 8 km far from two villages in quarantine since last Friday for a couple fatalities each. Almost everybody but the restricted ones are going to work regularly, only schools are suspended till next week. We are possibly surrounded by people who are mild cases or have already overcome the disease, many (many) more than the confirmed cases used to compute that "2%" kill rate that seems to me are mostly the few people so seriously hill to be hospitalized. Frankly, I think you are hysterically over-reacting.
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I think the rate is two high also for a couple of reasons.
Wouldn’t there have been more deaths in China if the rate was so high and it is so contagious. It was in a highly congested area in China probably for a while before any one was concerned about there being a deadly virus.
Also the cruise ship has been quarantined since the 3rd and the virus was active on the ship for some time before the quarantine. So far there have been 4 deaths and over 700 tested positive. I realize there may be more deaths to come and I don’t know how many on the ship are still critical. I also read in I think USA Today all 4 deaths were people 80 and older.
 
William Parcher said:
I think that you are infected because you are leaving words out of your sentences. Look at these two.
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Haha! Typing while eating breakfast appears to be a lot like posting drunk.

wea said:
My home (northern Italy) is 8 km far from two villages in quarantine since last Friday for a couple fatalities each. Almost everybody but the restricted ones are going to work regularly, only schools are suspended till next week. We are possibly surrounded by people who are mild cases or have already overcome the disease, many (many) more than the confirmed cases used to compute that "2%" kill rate that seems to me are mostly the few people so seriously hill to be hospitalized. Frankly, I think you are hysterically over-reacting.
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I hope I am, but the evidence says otherwise.

Several countries have been testing quite widely - UK for one - that isn't picking up infections of any kind, so the idea that lots of people have it doesn't seem all that realistic.

The WHO, Imperial College London and the CDC all seem pretty comfortable with the idea that the death rate is 1-2%, so I'm taking their word for in the lack of evidence to the contrary.

South Korea and the Diamond Princess are excellent sources of evidence, because their testing regimes are so rigid. They aren't showing loads of asymptomatic cases and are conforming to the ratios of severe illness and death at this stage.
 
Abooga said:
This graph shows quite effectively why we need to focus on slowing efforts, so that health systems don´t collapse:
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This is what I've been saying from the start.

One good thing is, containment attempts lead to mitigation of the spread, so as long as action is taken, it will hopefully produce the desired result, because "broken" will be a highly inadequate description of what happens to health systems if it hits as hard as it possibly could.
 
SuburbanTurkey said:
US man returning from China suspected he had the virus, got tested. Turns out he only had the flu. Also go stuck with a $3,500 bill. That's the price you pay in the US for doing the right thing.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-test-medical-bill-china-us-miami-osmel-martinez-azcue-a9358146.html

If the virus gets a serious foothold here in the US, it is going to run absolutely rampant. Our lack of universal health care and sick-leave job protections means that people will have very strong reasons to ignore anti-epidemic measures.
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The bill was for the ED visit, not because they thought he had coronavirus. Public health is still the only lab doing (allowed to do) coronavirus testing.

Of course he had deceptive-advertising-doesn't-cover-much insurance that had been against the law under the ACA until the GOP gutted it.
 
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angrysoba said:
It is pretty big. The school year is until the end of March, though, but a lot of the graduation ceremonies and entrance exams and other events will also close.

I was wondering if anyone had some expert reactions to this news in Japan.

Some people welcome the news here, and others are saying it is a massive over-reaction, but these are lay people who might only be correct by accident.
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I don't think it's an overreaction.

They just closed a high school here (Bothell, WA) but mostly for disinfection.

https://www.kuow.org/stories/bothell-high-school-closed-over-covid-19-concern

Could be a mistake, might be better to have closed for two weeks to see if any more cases turn up.

I wasn't in that high school but I was just in two elementary schools in the same school district on Tues. Makes you think it might turn up anywhere when ti gets here.
 
The Atheist said:
36 right now: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

You'd think at least a few of them will die.
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Thank you for the link.

Yes, it's killing mostly oldies and sickies, but it's definitely knocking over others as well. The main thing isn't even the deaths, but the need for intensive care beds, while trying to protect health workers.
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In something even approaching a worst case scenario how could there be enough.

I found this from the link you gave me.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#who

Importantly, in emerging viral infection outbreaks the case-fatality ratio is often overestimated in the early stages because case detection is highly biased towards the more severe cases.

As further data on the spectrum of mild or asymptomatic infection becomes available, one case of which was documented by Chan and colleagues, the case-fatality ratio is likely to decrease.
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I suspect in the end the rate will go down because there must have been many unreported cases in Wuhan. I hope so.
 
Here's the next big outbreak waiting to happen:

Reuters: South Korea says flight attendant infected with virus worked Los Angeles route

She also might have sparked an outbreak in Israel, time will tell. But they've had other exposures, there were passengers on the flight that had been exposed in the South Korean church and one person arriving from China that had the viruses.

The flight attendant worked on Korean Air’s flight KE017 from Seoul’s Incheon airport to Los Angeles on Feb. 19, and on the return flight KE012 on Feb. 20, Yonhap news agency and other media reported. A South Korean official familiar with the case verified those flight details, adding that between flights the woman had stayed in Los Angeles overnight.

“She took a flight after showing symptoms, and we are investigating people who had contact with the employee on the flight,” the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said in a statement on Thursday.
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The crewmember had been on a Korean Air KE958 flight from Israel to Incheon on Feb. 15-16, the KCDC said. The passengers on that flight included a South Korean religious group that 31 coronavirus cases have been traced to.
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