Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

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smartcooky said:
This virus apparently has a kill rate of 2% - that is a devastating rate - it is disconcerting to see certain politicians and media personalities spinning this and saying "its only 2%". Its irresponsible and dangerous.
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That's going to be a bagatelle compared to hospitals trying to fit thousands of people into dozens of intensive care beds while 40% of their own staff are sick.

If this isn't isn't handled well, it will be a disaster of unimaginable proportions. A truly earth-changing event.

I have zero confidence in Jacinda and her cronies handling this and can see a scenario the opposite of affordable houses: promise 100,000 and deliver 47. With Covid, they'll be planning for 47 cases and get 1,000,000.

My bad feeling about it is being exacerbated by the hour right now.

angrysoba said:
This will really be a problem if it turns out to be bi-phasic.
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Holy Black Plague, Batman!

That's terrible news if it's more than a minuscule proportion of cases.

Jesus, if people have been in intensive care and recover only to fall sick again, I wouldn't bet on their survival chances.
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So, we have a dozen countries reporting first infections today, and India hasn't had a case since 31 January.

Yeah, right.

Where is the WHO right now? This is so obviously a pandemic - why the delay in calling it?
 
Ah, I see someone else has picked up the rather obvious point that Iran's case number of 141 does not gel with their 22 deaths and zero serious cases.

Iran has the highest number of deaths outside China, but they're only 5th in case number.

Maths says their case numbers should be in the 2000-range. Just a short count of 1860-odd.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/coronavirus-global-fears_n_5e574ef4c5b66622ed769918
 
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It´s going to spread very quickly in Spain, the official message here is "don´t panic, this is just like a normal flu" (https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020/02/26/actualidad/1582744701_468958.html), and practically no containment or isolation measures are being applied, no practical information is being offered as to how people should react if suspecting infection... We have the most useless corrupt government ever, what could we expect...
 
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Two new cases confirmed in UK

Two more patients have tested positive for coronavirus in England, bringing the total number of UK cases to 15.
They have been transferred to specialist NHS infection centres in Liverpool and London, the Department of Health said.
The virus was passed on while they were in Italy and Tenerife, said England's chief medical officer Prof Chris Whitty.
Ministers have said they expect more cases to emerge.
The new patients are being treated at specialist centres at the Royal Free Hospital, London, and the Royal Liverpool Hospital.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51656609
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
More ignorance on masks on the local news: a beard will block the exhalation valve. Where does this crap come from, rumors in the news room?

What idiots, it's so basic. Facial hair interferes with a tight seal on your face.
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The Late Show with Stephen Colbert:
Coronavirus Fears Are Reshaping Global Facial Hair Trends
 
Captain_Swoop said:
Of for the BBC to re show the old 1970s 'post apocalypse' drama series 'Survivors'
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However, I recommend The Giving Plague is not only educational: about virus evolution. It's also good literature. It has a very atypical unreliable narrator. I've read it with a couple of high school English classes. Most students, in particular the bright ones, like it. The others don't get it at all.
 
US man returning from China suspected he had the virus, got tested. Turns out he only had the flu. Also go stuck with a $3,500 bill. That's the price you pay in the US for doing the right thing.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-test-medical-bill-china-us-miami-osmel-martinez-azcue-a9358146.html

If the virus gets a serious foothold here in the US, it is going to run absolutely rampant. Our lack of universal health care and sick-leave job protections means that people will have very strong reasons to ignore anti-epidemic measures.
 
But the rest is business as usual, I guess; the reason why all precautions in this case are too little too late.
 
dann said:
But the rest is business as usual, I guess; the reason why all precautions in this case are too little too late.
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No, not exactly. A lot of sports and cultural events have been called off, or played behind closed doors. Companies have been either instructing workers to telecommute, or changing their hours around.

Yeah, who knows what effect it will have and the basis of the decision-making, but we can only go from here.
 
alfaniner said:
That right there. That's really big.
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It is pretty big. The school year is until the end of March, though, but a lot of the graduation ceremonies and entrance exams and other events will also close.

I was wondering if anyone had some expert reactions to this news in Japan.

Some people welcome the news here, and others are saying it is a massive over-reaction, but these are lay people who might only be correct by accident.
 
Planigale said:
If you were designing a bioweapon the first thing you would do is limit its transmissibility, you don't want bioweapons infecting your troops. You don't want a weapon with a long asymptomatic incubation, that is mostly mild in its effects. A biphasic weapon would be especially bad as it could then recur in captured troops or areas requiring the occupying forces to divert resources and being a risk to occupying forces. Ebola might be a good weapon, minimal person to person transmission other than by direct contact, rapidly fatal, with a low case of asymptomatic shedding. Organism causing D&V that aren't fatal might also be good, norovirus has rapid onset and can be disabling and is very infectious. In addition most attempts at bio-engineering leave obvious evidence. There are the insertion sequences left behind if you insert genes. Viruses that are cultured for any length of time tend to become attenuated. The idea this is a bio-weapon is just silly.
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I think your reasoning here is spurious. Just because it doesn't look like you expect a perfected bioweapon to look, that doesn't mean it can't be a product of bioweapons research. All they'd need to be doing is tinkering with coronavirus to see if they could weaponize it, and they'd be producing several strains of the stuff. This thing doesn't have to be the destination, just a stop along the way.

It is not as if the emergence of yet another zoonotic coronavirus was not expected, really there is nothing about this outbreak that was not foreseen as being likely. I think it is worth remembering how unlikely the emergence of HIV was since it required genetic reassortment between a monkey and a chimpanzee virus then for that virus to infect a human and then be onwardly transmitted. But with billions of people and many years, unusual events do occur.
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I agree that a naturally occurring event is by far the most plausible answer.
 
Abooga said:
It´s going to spread very quickly in Spain, the official message here is "don´t panic, this is just like a normal flu" (https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020/02/26/actualidad/1582744701_468958.html), and practically no containment or isolation measures are being applied, no practical information is being offered as to how people should react if suspecting infection... We have the most useless corrupt government ever, what could we expect...
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That's terrible and the kind of reaction which will cost lives.

I'm struggling to understand people can be so stupid. This is an international disaster unfolding and idiotic leaders will just things worse.

SuburbanTurkey said:
If the virus gets a serious foothold here in the US, it is going to run absolutely rampant. Our lack of universal health care and sick-leave job protections means that people will have very strong reasons to ignore anti-epidemic measures.
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Then it might help to change attitudes.

I wrote a piece yesterday in which I say that if this runs rampant - as seems impossible to avoid now - it will change the world.

There won't be a single person untouched by it - everyone will have a relative or friend die.

The Great Zaganza said:
Want Trump to take the problem seriously?

Tell him that people at his rallies might be infected.
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What you need to worry about is postponement of the election.

angrysoba said:
Some people welcome the news here, and others are saying it is a massive over-reaction, but these are lay people who might only be correct by accident.
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I think we're at a stage where nothing is an over-reaction.

5% of people needing intensive care is pretty easy to work out, but I don't think many people yet realise what that means.
 
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