Should we fear Bernie?

[Distracted1]

You weren't implying it, but I think others have been. The ones who keep complaining of "Bernie Bros", and "progressives". I think some of them will stay home sulking if Sanders is the candidate.

A very small fraction, perhaps.
I think far fewer than the other way around, however.

The "not Sanders" Democrats are, for the most part, just fine with Sanders as POTUS.
Their opposition stemming mostly from the expectation that he can't become POTUS.

They will turn out.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Finally! It only took what, ten thousand years of civilization to learn that? I think there may be a naive cloistered nun or a four year old who hasn't learned it yet.

There's a difference between accepting that something is an avoidable fact of life and treating it as a positive.

 

[TragicMonkey]

Maybe, and I disagree with that from them just as much as I do from Sanders supporters. The priority should be to reverse the conservative gains, not push progressive agendas; that can be done later.

Ah, but what if the path to reversing conservative gains is best pursued BY pushing progressive agendas? The people want X, so why not push for X, rather than pushing for Not Y And Maybe Eventually We'll Think About X?

 

[TragicMonkey]

There's a difference between accepting that something is an avoidable fact of life and treating it as a positive.

Agreed. There is also a difference between stating a fact and endorsing the thing it describes.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Agreed. There is also a difference between stating a fact and endorsing the thing it describes.

"I'm going to henpeck you whenever you complain about the thing but that doesn't mean I'm endorsing it" is a Trumper tactic I'm surprised to see from you.

So that's it then? The pretensions have just all be dropped. The Bernie Sanders supporters are using their votes to strong arm their candidate into the nomination in the way other candidate's supporters are not doing.

When argued into a corner the conclusion is... the thing we said they were doing from day 1?

 

[Belz...]

Ah, but what if the path to reversing conservative gains is best pursued BY pushing progressive agendas?

Interesting hypothetical.

Is it the case, though?

 

[TragicMonkey]

"I'm going to henpeck you whenever you complain about the thing but that doesn't mean I'm endorsing it" is a Trumper tactic I'm surprised to see from you.

Not even remotely so. I meant that remarking on what I think is happening in no way indicates I approve of or welcome it.

So that's it then? The pretensions have just all be dropped. The Bernie Sanders supporters are using their votes to stron garm their candidate into the nomination in the way other candidate's supporters are not doing.

Perhaps they are. It's within the rules of the system, and quite possibly it's how the system is supposed to function. It's a democracy, after all, shouldn't the majority get its way in this?

 

[TragicMonkey]

Interesting hypothetical.

Is it the case, though?

I think it is, but I am by nature a rational optimist. Which is why I prefer Warren to the rest of the bunch.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Perhaps they are. It's within the rules of the system, and quite possibly it's how the system is supposed to function. It's a democracy, after all, shouldn't the majority get its way in this?

Nobody is arguing about anyone's right to do something. If Bernie gets the nomination and gets trounced by Trump in the general I'm not going to be trying to overturn the outcome or anything like that.

I'm just saying that's a bad outcome.

 

[TragicMonkey]

Nobody is arguing about anyone's right to do something. If Bernie gets the nomination and gets trounced by Trump in the general I'm not going to be trying to overturn the outcome or anything like that.

I'm just saying that's a bad outcome.

Well, duh.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Well, duh.

Then what is your issue exactly?

Right now the Bernie Sander Supporters' "My way or I'm taking my ball and going home" mentality is making it less likely that the Democratic Party will nominate a candidate that defeat Trump in the general election.

That's all I've ever said. What part of that do you disagree with?

 

[Trebuchet]

Ah, but what if the path to reversing conservative gains is best pursued BY pushing progressive agendas? The people want X, so why not push for X, rather than pushing for Not Y And Maybe Eventually We'll Think About X?

Interesting hypothetical.

Is it the case, though?

Absolutely not, in my opinion. Progressive agendas scare many people.

 

[TragicMonkey]

Then what is your issue exactly?

Right now the Bernie Sander Supporters' "My way or I'm taking my ball and going home" mentality is making it less likely that the Democratic Party will nominate a candidate that defeat Trump in the general election.

That's all I've ever said. What part of that do you disagree with?

I disagree that the Sanders supporters who would refrain from voting for another Democrat are sufficient in number to actually cause that Democrat to lose to Trump. I don't think their numbers are significant; they are certainly loud, but that does not mean they are numerous. Nor is it certain anyone threatening to boycott the election actually would do so.

As for my "issue" I have none. You're the one who seems to be taking everything personally. I recommend chillaxation by 1) watching a cute puppy video, 2) eating a nice snack, and 3) voting for Warren, who is better than the others.

 

[TragicMonkey]

Absolutely not, in my opinion. Progressive agendas scare many people.

So do vaccination, dentistry, and anal sex. Nevertheless these things are worth pursuing.

Eta: not simultaneously.

 

[Segnosaur]

I disagree that the Sanders supporters who would refrain from voting for another Democrat are sufficient in number to actually cause that Democrat to lose to Trump. I don't think their numbers are significant; they are certainly loud, but that does not mean they are numerous.

In 2016, Trump won Michigan by ~11,000 votes. He won Wisc. by ~23,000 vote. And he won Penn. by ~44,000 votes.

In the primaries, Sanders got 570,000 votes in Wisc. and ~599,000 votes in Mich, and ~732,000 votes in Pennsylvania.

Supposedly, 12% of Sanders supporters in the 2016 election ended up voting for Trump. (https://www.npr.org/2017/08/24/5458...voters-ended-up-supporting-trump-survey-finds)

Assuming Wisc. and Mich. follow that pattern, it gave ~68,000 more votes for Trump in Wisc. ~72,000 more votes in Michigan, ~88,000 more votes in Penn. than if those Sander supporters decided to stick to the Democrats, far above Trump's margin of victory. And had Hillary won those states, she would have become president.

So basically the unhappy BernieBros seem to have tipped the 2016 election in favor of trump.

Now, would the same thing happen in 2020? Would approximately 1 in 10 BernieBros jump over to Trump again if Sanders loses? Who knows. After 4 years of Trump, maybe they have learned their lesson.... holding your nose and voting for a democrat is better than the dumpster-fire that is the Trump administration. But who knows? If it ends up being a brokered convention, or Bloomberg ends up winning, maybe the same pattern will repeat itself... enough Sanders supporters voting for Trump to swing a few key states.

 

[CORed]

Bernie's been in government for a few decades now. He seems like a nice guy who's never been able to do much with his ideas.

But happens if he wins? What happens if all of his ideas suddenly are backed by major power?

Millenials don't remember the evils of Socialism but many Gen Xers and Boomers do. We remember the Gulags, the Berlin Wall, the Khmer Rouge, the barbed wire, the purges, the brutally put down revolutions.

Bernie's supporters say "oh no, that wouldn't happen here, this time it will be peaceful, freedom-loving Socialism".

Well I've read the agenda of the DSA, which Bernie is a member of. They want to destroy capitalism, end national borders. They want to put the means of production and industry and wealth into the hands of "The People", which means mass-nationalization of industry, corporations, banks, the engines of commerce.

Every national manifestation of Socialism that the world has ever seen, has been an economic disaster, a human rights disaster, or both. Do we really want to give it another shot????

A few observations: What Bernie advocates is not Soviet style communism, but more like a European style welfare state. Something much more like Sweden or France than the Soviet Union or East Germany. For another, there isn't really very much of it he can actually implement without the approval of Congress. Remember that Obama couldn't even get single-payer healthcare passed with a Democratic majority in both houses. It will depend on who gets elected to Congress along with him, but it seems pretty likely that very little of his program will actually pass.

 

[Distracted1]

In 2016, Trump won Michigan by ~11,000 votes. He won Wisc. by ~23,000 vote. And he won Penn. by ~44,000 votes.

In the primaries, Sanders got 570,000 votes in Wisc. and ~599,000 votes in Mich, and ~732,000 votes in Pennsylvania.

Supposedly, 12% of Sanders supporters in the 2016 election ended up voting for Trump. (https://www.npr.org/2017/08/24/5458...voters-ended-up-supporting-trump-survey-finds)

Assuming Wisc. and Mich. follow that pattern, it gave ~68,000 more votes for Trump in Wisc. ~72,000 more votes in Michigan, ~88,000 more votes in Penn. than if those Sander supporters decided to stick to the Democrats, far above Trump's margin of victory. And had Hillary won those states, she would have become president.

So basically the unhappy BernieBros seem to have tipped the 2016 election in favor of trump.

Now, would the same thing happen in 2020? Would approximately 1 in 10 BernieBros jump over to Trump again if Sanders loses? Who knows. After 4 years of Trump, maybe they have learned their lesson.... holding your nose and voting for a democrat is better than the dumpster-fire that is the Trump administration. But who knows? If it ends up being a brokered convention, or Bloomberg ends up winning, maybe the same pattern will repeat itself... enough Sanders supporters voting for Trump to swing a few key states.

What concerns me more are the 88,000 MI (as an example) voters who cast a ballot- but left the POTUS spot blank.

These voters IMO were not Democrats who could not bring themselves to vote for Clinton. They were Republican voters who could not bring themselves to vote for Trump, and were willing to tacitly let Clinton win.
Far fewer of them (IMO) will be willing to tacitly support Sanders by not voting for the Republican candidate.

Sanders will "wake the sleeping conservatives".

 

[Tero]

If you are in front of Bernie's death panel, you must extend your life for 2 weeks with cash. Other than that, you are OK. Bernie will apply proven cures and tax you.
and me for the bill.
https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-...tudies-agree-medicare-for-all-saves-money?amp

 

[Cabbage]

Yeah but nobody from the other side is going to come to our side.

Moderate and conservative Democrats were already going to vote for whoever the Democratic nominee was. That's why they are Democrats. They are already, by definition, on your side.

Which is problem because... we lost the last election. Everybody remembers that right? You all haven't slipped into some alternative dimension where Sanders is the incumbent right?

Protecting the eggs that are already in your basket isn't enough when all the eggs in the basket weren't enough to win you the last election.

But no the narrative from the Democrats and especially the Bernie Bros has been nothing but "Whatever you do, don't try to reach out to other groups and get them on ours side because the eggs in our basket are so skittish they might all bolt."

It's how "Centrist" (da da dum, lightning strike, scare chord on the piano) has become their go-to boogeyman. But there's no more defeatist attitude in politics then "Whatever you do, don't try to appeal to the most people."

We lost 2016 because enough people in America thought the socialist takeover of America had started because the black guy tried to give them health care. Maybe, just maybe, leaning even harder into that narrative isn't a great plan.

I think you're being a little too cocksure about what is merely your opinion.

 

[angrysoba]

Because he will alienate what will be the key portion of the electorate.

Texas will still go red. California blue.

Sanders will cost us PA, MI, and likely even WI.

Lose all of Hillary Clinton’s gains, you mean? Oh wait...