Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

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Roboramma said:
So, here in China everyone is wearing surgical masks all the time. My (uninformed) understanding was that these will help prevent the spread of infections when those who are sick wear them, but don't really help protect healthy people from becoming infected.

I'm curious if anyone knows if this is accurate or not? (I should probably try to research this myself, and will do so later, but it might be a valuable addition to this thread to have some clarity on this point).
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It looks like it. Here is a quote
A surgical mask is not to be confused with a respirator and is not certified as such. Surgical masks are not designed to protect the wearer from inhaling airborne bacteria or virus particles and are less effective than respirators, which are designed for this purpose.[13]
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surgical_mask

Anyone who wants a more reliable source can find one themselves and post it here.
They can start by reading this https://www.ccohs.ca/oshanswers/prevention/respiratory_protection.html
 
Roboramma said:
So, here in China everyone is wearing surgical masks all the time. My (uninformed) understanding was that these will help prevent the spread of infections when those who are sick wear them, but don't really help protect healthy people from becoming infected.

I'm curious if anyone knows if this is accurate or not? (I should probably try to research this myself, and will do so later, but it might be a valuable addition to this thread to have some clarity on this point).
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If you absolutely have to rely on respiratory protection, the masks are not enough. Typical surgical masks were never intended to and never tested for protecting the wearer.

First, they need a tight seal around your face. Air will follow the path of least resistance.

Second the filter ability matters. None of these masks filter out virus sized particles. The heavier masks with face seals filter out 2 micron sized particles. Most viruses are smaller than one micron. They will filter out tuberculosis bacteria. They also aren't practical to wear around all day long.

But most of these respiratory viruses are not airborne. They are droplet spread. Droplets are large wet things which can be stopped by a tight fitting surgical mask.

A surgical mask with a reasonably tight fit and eye protection will protect you if someone coughs in your face. But so will staying a good 3 feet away from people.

Droplets are also contaminating surfaces and people touch them then touch their faces.

Given how infectious this pathogen is, we can't yet say if it is all airborne or mostly droplet spread. Truly airborne viruses are floating around as single viral particles and if the air is too saturated they are going to go around a mask. Stay away from crowded indoor areas. Out in the open is safer because the viruses are going to be in more diluted concentration.
 
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Roboramma said:
So, here in China everyone is wearing surgical masks all the time. My (uninformed) understanding was that these will help prevent the spread of infections when those who are sick wear them, but don't really help protect healthy people from becoming infected.

I'm curious if anyone knows if this is accurate or not? (I should probably try to research this myself, and will do so later, but it might be a valuable addition to this thread to have some clarity on this point).
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One of the main things that can stop a person from catching something, is if they never touch the "soft entry" points after having recently touched a contaminated surface.

So... if the face mask reminds a person not to touch their eyes, nose or mouth without washing their hands, it could prevent an infection.

The mask could also offer a little protection against air born fluids that contain the virus, but I'd suggest not much.

In usual medical settings, masks are used to prevent contamination getting into the patient via a wound/surgery etc.
 
Seems a bit futile to isolate sufferers on arrival at airports. On board the aircraft, they've just been kept for hours in close proximity to tens or hundreds of other passengers, who are by then likely infected but not yet showing symptoms.

How long before the authorities admit that they are powerless to prevent the virus from spreading globally?
 
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ceptimus said:
Seems a bit futile to isolate sufferers on arrival at airports. On board the aircraft, they've just been kept for hours in close proximity to tens or hundreds of other passengers, who are by then likely infected but not yet showing symptoms.

How long before the authorities admit that they are powerless to prevent the virus from spreading globally?
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And those exposed passengers all walk away while the person with symptoms is detained.

One thing that came up with flu pandemic planning was that the airlines could not tell us later who all the people on the plane were and where they went. Airlines are supposed to have corrected that deficiency. Years later, I doubt plans are still in place in all the airports.

They are in most medical facilities in the US that did the initial planning. That they asked Trebuchet if he'd been in China is a good sign clinics are following protocols.
 
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Roboramma here's a Chinese doctor who thinks he got infected through his eye.

His illness began with a little conjunctivitis.
 
Venom said:
Roboramma here's a Chinese doctor who thinks he got infected through his eye.

His illness began with a little conjunctivitis.
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Actually, that's not farfetched. That's why I mentioned eye protection. All these people are covering their nose and mouth and not realizing these viruses can enter through your eyes as well.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
Actually, that's not farfetched. That's why I mentioned eye protection. All these people are covering their nose and mouth and not realizing these viruses can enter through your eyes as well.
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Yeah, eyes are one of those "soft entry points"

So face masks and eye shields...

Fortunately, as a formerly regular commuter cyclist, I have both of these things.
 
Four cases confirmed in Aussie, further emphasising the futility of the Chinese lockdowns.

I'd say the actual number of infections right now is probably 100k, not the 1000 confirmed cases.

The big unknown at the moment is whether the virus mutates now it's got a new animal infected.
 
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Apparently it has an R-Naught or R0 of somewhere between 2.5 and 3.5 which makes it considerably dangerous and likely to spread regardless of quarantines. No one knows the fatality rate for sure but on Twitter I've seen reports that initial WHO numbers are somewhere from 3-14% but there are suspicions the Chinese are underreporting. It is spread by air from human to human and it is possible to transmit it before showing any symptoms.


I'd say that all says we need to take it super seriously. And the videos I've seen coming out of Wuhan don't calm my nerves, hospitals are stacking dead bodies in the hallways, some are apparently closing while the Government is constructing an emergency field hospital to only treat infected patients.



I'm not going to pretend I'm expert but from my lay perspective this looks to have the best potential for a 1918 type pandemic of anything I've seen in my lifetime.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
Yeah yeah, excuse my meaningless error. :rolleyes:

In the meantime re that desktop model: it's a model of a generic pandemic, not this one. Where did you get the idea that planning was about this coronavirus?

From the link

At a glance, this is not a deadly coronavirus like SARS. It's not a deadly disease like ebola. It's not the deadly influenza pandemic that still hasn't arrived.

Like I said, it's "a really nasty cold no one has immunity to spreading around the world."
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It is a model of a coronavirus pandemic. Obviously not the current one as it was modelled last year. The estimated R0* and fatality rates in the model are equivalent to current estimates. This model is the best currently available for an estimate of the impact of this virus unless infection control procedures can limit its spread. More information with more accurate estimates of critical transmission values will become available. The best estimate we have is millions of deaths.

Any action early in an outbreak / epidemic to slow spread is worth while as it spreads the epidemic overtime, a pandemic over 2 years is far easier to manage than over 1 year. It also gives more time for diagnostic, treatment and vaccine development.

*An R0 > 1 means that each case infects more than one person, i.e. it is not self limiting. MERS has an R0 <1, SARS has an R0 = 2-4.
https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/368/bmj.m308.full.pdf
 
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Travis said:
No one knows the fatality rate for sure but on Twitter I've seen reports that initial WHO numbers are somewhere from 3-14% but there are suspicions the Chinese are underreporting.
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While the death rate appears at that level, the information coming from specialists suggests that it's nowhere near 3%. My best estimate is that it's somewhere between common cold and influenza on the death scale - between 0.01 and 0.04%.

I admit, I was thrown off by the early numbers in terms of fatality rates, but it's nowhere near that levels you're thinking. There are clearly tens or hundreds of thousands of people with the virus right now. The "official" total of 1400 is a joke.

Never mind the odd brown bread dude in the corridors at hospitals, at an infeection rate of ~3, with current numbers of infected, you'd be seeing dead bodies in the street.

I'd even venture that in the northern winter, a lot of people going to hospitals actually have influenza or an ordinary cold.
 
Travis said:
Apparently it has an R-Naught or R0 of somewhere between 2.5 and 3.5 which makes it considerably dangerous and likely to spread regardless of quarantines. No one knows the fatality rate for sure but on Twitter I've seen reports that initial WHO numbers are somewhere from 3-14% but there are suspicions the Chinese are underreporting. It is spread by air from human to human and it is possible to transmit it before showing any symptoms.


I'd say that all says we need to take it super seriously. And the videos I've seen coming out of Wuhan don't calm my nerves, hospitals are stacking dead bodies in the hallways, some are apparently closing while the Government is constructing an emergency field hospital to only treat infected patients.



I'm not going to pretend I'm expert but from my lay perspective this looks to have the best potential for a 1918 type pandemic of anything I've seen in my lifetime.
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Coming from the WHO or not, those are simply not scientific evidenced based numbers.

It will take antibody testing of a representative group to determine the actual numbers of infections. Even without underreporting, you have to find the unrecognized cases.
 
Planigale said:
It is a model of a coronavirus pandemic. Obviously not the current one as it was modelled last year. The estimated R0* and fatality rates in the model are equivalent to current estimates. This model is the best currently available for an estimate of the impact of this virus unless infection control procedures can limit its spread. More information with more accurate estimates of critical transmission values will become available. The best estimate we have is millions of deaths.

Any action early in an outbreak / epidemic to slow spread is worth while as it spreads the epidemic overtime, a pandemic over 2 years is far easier to manage than over 1 year. It also gives more time for diagnostic, treatment and vaccine development.

*An R0 > 1 means that each case infects more than one person, i.e. it is not self limiting. MERS has an R0 <1, SARS has an R0 = 2-4.
https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/368/bmj.m308.full.pdf
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This is more nonsense. That hypothetical model was for a highly lethal pathogen.

:rolleyes:

If you want to wallow in needless fear, be my guest.
 
Travis said:
I'm not going to pretend I'm expert but from my lay perspective this looks to have the best potential for a 1918 type pandemic of anything I've seen in my lifetime.
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Now that's some bull ****

So far it looks quite like the SARS or MERS outbreaks in size and scope up until this point.
 
Dr.Sid said:
Well China is either over-reacting, or under-reporting. My bet would be the second. They are scared poopless.
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I believe you have to understand the cultural influence on their reaction.

One, they were criticized for their inadequate reaction to SARS.

Two, they probably have an inadequate health infrastructure in many of the affected areas.

Three, they were facing extensive population movement with the new year holiday. People all travel home.

Four, we should ask Roboramma for his insight.
 
Venom said:
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So far it looks quite like the SARS or MERS outbreaks in size and scope up until this point.
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No it doesn't!!!!!!

Some people in this thread apparently don't remember what the SARS pandemic was like.


And BTW, the SARS and MERS outbreaks are nothing like each other. If they were there would have been mass fatalities at the last couple Haj pilgrimages.
 
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