Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

Status
Not open for further replies.
angrysoba said:
33 million people now under lockdown. Scary stuff whatever the severity of the illness itself because of the strain it will put on people’s lives and medical infrastructure.
Click to expand...

It should cause people to think how futile such isolation will be.
 
Venom said:
An interesting entry about bats:

Also it made me wonder whether the preliminary study that traced the virus to snakes means maybe snakes got it from bats by eating them.
Click to expand...

Coronavirus is endemic in a number of animal species. It will be a while longer before the genetic history is confirmed.

One of those articles said, people drank fresh snake blood in the market. It was supposed to have health properties.:eek:
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
I said, "a really nasty cold no one has immunity to spreading around the world."

If you hear that as "the common cold" then you don't understand what I mean. And if you believe, "The common cold does not cause fatal pneumonia," you are mistaken.

RSV causes common cold symptoms. https://www.cdc.gov/rsv/research/us-surveillance.html
Why aren't people panicked about that?

Pertussis reemerged in epidemic proportions more than a decade ago.
https://www.cdc.gov/pertussis/countries/index.html
Why aren't people panicked about that?

Current influenza status:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/?deliveryName=USCDC_7_3-DM17996
Why aren't people panicked about that?



This new virus strain is going to spread around the world. There's a certain point where it is too late to put the genie back in the bottle and this has passed that point. It will be severe in some populations, especially the elderly and people with pre-existing conditions.

We've not heard yet about cases in India, and countries in Africa.
https://africatimes.com/2020/01/22/theres-mounting-concern-for-africas-exposure-to-new-coronavirus/

China has had a growing financial interest in Africa for a couple decades. It is unlikely there are no cases in African countries yet. One thing we learned in extensive planning when H5N1 flu threatened to explode into a pandemic was the lack of public health infrastructure in many African countries and major cities. India had similar problems.

It was suggested that if a novel fu outbreak wasn't stopped in the first few weeks, we would not be able to stop it. The reason and why that differed from SARS was, with flu one has millions of mild cases that go under the radar.

Assessment of US hospital capacity including ICU capacity was done during flu pandemic planning. With a novel coronavirus there could be a problem but it won't likely be a total disaster.



From WHO

ProMed Moderator comment:


Given all that, what is it you expect me to post? I look at the media hype and my past experience with these threats and want to point out the media is very much hyping this story. Yes, they should be reporting about the attempts of China to isolate whole cities. That's a huge story. The cases showing up in different countries is an important story.

But they continue to call it "the deadly coronavirus" Do they call influenza, "the deadly influenza"? The deadly pertussis outbreak? The media might commonly add those adjectives from time to time, generally about clusters of deaths that occur intermittently.

This is a bad pathogen. No one has immunity. It is going to spread around the world like a wildfire. The fatality rate will not be in the millions, maybe 10s of thousands worldwide, but not millions. It will be high among older people and people with preexisting conditions. I fit that category because I'm on a high dose of prednisone.

I already checked, waterless hand cleaners with high enough alcohol content will destroy the virus on your hands. I already wash my hands all the time. I will be making sure I have waterless hand cleaner in my car and purse. I'll be more conscientious about all that for a while.

There is nothing to panic about. And it is going to spread.
Click to expand...

Fatality rate is deaths / 100,000 infected, not an absolute number. (If you are going to be picky with others use terms correctly yourself.)

This desktop model of a coronavirus pandemic predicted global deaths of 65 million over 18 months.
http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/videos.html
This is probably a more reliable estimate than your opinion.
 
Planigale said:
Fatality rate is deaths / 100,000 infected, not an absolute number. (If you are going to be picky with others use terms correctly yourself.)

This desktop model of a coronavirus pandemic predicted global deaths of 65 million over 18 months.
http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/videos.html
This is probably a more reliable estimate than your opinion.
Click to expand...
Yeah yeah, excuse my meaningless error. :rolleyes:

In the meantime re that desktop model: it's a model of a generic pandemic, not this one. Where did you get the idea that planning was about this coronavirus?

From the link
Event 201 simulates an outbreak of a novel zoonotic coronavirus transmitted from bats to pigs to people that eventually becomes efficiently transmissible from person to person, leading to a severe pandemic. The pathogen and the disease it causes are modeled largely on SARS, but it is more transmissible in the community setting by people with mild symptoms.
Click to expand...

At a glance, this is not a deadly coronavirus like SARS. It's not a deadly disease like ebola. It's not the deadly influenza pandemic that still hasn't arrived.

Like I said, it's "a really nasty cold no one has immunity to spreading around the world."
 
Last edited:
Only a matter of time before the conspiracy kooks panic over this. Any kind of disease outbreak sets them off bigtime.
And the media is now pushing this to the top of the list..just below the impeachment.
 
Last edited:
dudalb said:
Only a matter of time before the conspiracy kooks panic over this. Any kind of disease outbreak sets them off bigtime.
And the media is now pushing this to the top of the list..just below the impeachment.
Click to expand...

I hope the impeachment is below Harry and Megan.
 
dudalb said:
Only a matter of time before the conspiracy kooks panic over this. Any kind of disease outbreak sets them off bigtime.
And the media is now pushing this to the top of the list..just below the impeachment.
Click to expand...

Saw a few social media comments about this being a human population control or some stupid ****. What a poor disease to use as a human pest control. Our Cold War forefathers would be embarrassed.
 
Al Jazeera is reporting breaking news from Beijing that one of the doctors involved in treating patients in Wuhan has died from a confirmed infection of 2019-nCoV.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
Coronavirus is endemic in a number of animal species. It will be a while longer before the genetic history is confirmed.

One of those articles said, people drank fresh snake blood in the market. It was supposed to have health properties.:eek:
Click to expand...

Sure, but given that mammal to mammal transmission is more common and presumably easier, it's kind of interesting that they came up with snakes.
 
I still think bats are the source of this outbreak, if it's ever found. Bats are the source of a bunch of other coronavirus diseases.

Look at this paper from yesterday.

Most of it is over my head but it was found that nCoV-2019 genetic makeup is 96% identical to a certain bat coronavirus.
 
The first Australian case of coronavirus has been confirmed, with a man being held under isolation in a Melbourne hospital.

News of the case came after Chinese authorities said the death toll from the outbreak had jumped to 41, with 1,287 confirmed cases.

Source
 
novaphile said:
The first Australian case of coronavirus has been confirmed, with a man being held under isolation in a Melbourne hospital.

News of the case came after Chinese authorities said the death toll from the outbreak had jumped to 41, with 1,287 confirmed cases.

Source
Click to expand...

I just hope they isolated him before he passed it onto others. The first GP to correct say to a person who has not been to China, nor knows anyone who has "I think we need to test for Coronavirus" and then the test comes back positive deserves a medal. I just hope this never happens.
 
rjh01 said:
I just hope they isolated him before he passed it onto others.
Click to expand...

I'm going with the experience of the futile Mexico City lockdown in 2009, when it had reached NZ before the quarantine went into effect.

Considering there are lots of mild cases, there will be huge numbers of people who haven't and won't be tested, but are all over the world, passing it on.

It's out, it's about, and there's no measures that will contain it.

I should start a poll on what the final death toll will be - my entry would be ~3 million worldwide.
 
One other prediction I'll make on the back of the forthcoming pandemic is that the financial fallout will tip the world into recession.
 
So, here in China everyone is wearing surgical masks all the time. My (uninformed) understanding was that these will help prevent the spread of infections when those who are sick wear them, but don't really help protect healthy people from becoming infected.

I'm curious if anyone knows if this is accurate or not? (I should probably try to research this myself, and will do so later, but it might be a valuable addition to this thread to have some clarity on this point).
 
The Atheist said:
I'm going with the experience of the futile Mexico City lockdown in 2009, when it had reached NZ before the quarantine went into effect.

Considering there are lots of mild cases, there will be huge numbers of people who haven't and won't be tested, but are all over the world, passing it on.

It's out, it's about, and there's no measures that will contain it.

I should start a poll on what the final death toll will be - my entry would be ~3 million worldwide.
Click to expand...

The final world wide death toll would be unknown. Many people in poor countries would die from it and are buried without getting counted. But we would know the death toll of many countries that have good medical conditions. My guess is that you are right in that most people who get it will recover without treatment. The majority of those killed would be either children or the elderly or other vulnerable groups. Doubt if the death tolls in these places would be more than 0.1%.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom