UK - December 2019 General Election

[P.J. Denyer]

Probably very happy in Moscow over this.

This we agree on.

 

[dudalb]

That's democracy for ya, folks.

I think that the question which most needs answering is this: how the hell did the Labour party fail to capitalise in this election? The answer, I'm afraid, is (IMO) down to only two things: 1) the muddy and undeclarative Labour policy on Brexit; and 2) Jeremy Corbyn (who's also the chief architect of (1).

Labout has a shocking recent record of electing unelectables (by the whole national electorate, that is) as leader. Even though it's a truism that we vote for MPs and their parties and not for leaders/potential PMs, it's well understood in psephological circles that the choice of leader plays a significant role in the voting intentions of that small number of swing voters in key marginals who make all the difference in any election*. Ed Miliband was a disastrous choice - very few of those swing voters could envisage him as a global statesperson; and in many ways Corbyn was even worse for the same reasons. And what's more, the takeover at the top by the hard left faction resulted in the disillusionment, defection or retirement of many moderate left MPs. Coming back round to (1), Labour is just as split on Brexit that the Conservatives - in fact, very probably much more so. And there was no strong message on Brexit presented to the electorate.

I would be very highly confident that had a statesmanlike moderate such as, say, Chuka Umunna, been installed as Labour leader in 2017, Johnson very probably wouldn't even have tabled a GE for today: he'd have known pretty well that any GE would result in a fair-sized Labour majority.

(And always remember: the good fellows of the US elected the current Presidential incumbent....)


* i.e. there is a vast majority of the electorate who has always and will always vote for whichever political party they're aligned with. It's only ever the relatively tiny number of swing voters in marginal seats who make all the difference.

Pretty much the same in the US. It's the swing voters who decide elections.
Despite the ideologues on both sides of the spectrum who subscribe to the lost tribe school of politics..that there is a vast untapped pool of hard left or hard right voters who are going to come of out of hiding if the right candidates come along.....

 

[LondonJohn]

If this is a joke, it ain't funny,

He's saying that as things stood when he wrote the post, 4 seats had declared for Labour, and 1 seat for Conservative.

But this is always the case. Reason: the earliest constituencies to declare are all inner-city ones, because their dense geography means it's easier to get the ballot boxes to the count quickly. And inner-city constituencies are historically a virtual slam-dunk for Labour in every GE. As the declarations move away from the inner-city constituencies into the more suburban and semi-rural constituencies (most of which estimate their declarations will happen at around 4-5am), there'll be a rush of blue...

But even in those five seats already having declared, there's already a huge shock in respect of that Conservative "1". That one seat is a Conservative gain from Labour in Blythe, which is a heartland Labour constituency that nobody could forsee ever returning anyone other than the Labour candidate. That Con gain is without doubt a bellwether for the election outcome as a whole.

 

[dudalb]

It's not good for the UK that both parties now seem to be dominated by the hard line ideologues.

 

[LondonJohn]

Pretty much the same in the US. It's the swing voters who decide elections.
Despite the ideologues on both sides of the spectrum who subscribe to the lost tribe school of politics..that there is a vast untapped pool of hard left or hard right voters who are going to come of out of hiding if the right candidates come along.....

Yep. I recall reading that this very small minority of the UK electorate - the swing voters in marginal constituencies - probably number in total something between 200,000-250,000. Out of a total UK electorate of something like 46 million.

And the absolute key to winning a GE majority in the UK (whether Lab or Con) is to appeal to this relatively tiny esoteric bunch. It would appear from the exit poll and the nature of the early declarations that the Conservatives appealed to these people far more than Labour did.

 

[dudalb]

Yep. I recall reading that this very small minority of the UK electorate - the swing voters in marginal constituencies - probably number in total something between 200,000-250,000. Out of a total UK electorate of something like 46 million.

And the absolute key to winning a GE majority in the UK (whether Lab or Con) is to appeal to this relatively tiny esoteric bunch. It would appear from the exit poll and the nature of the early declarations that the Conservatives appealed to these people far more than Labour did.

I think the swing vote is proably a lot larger then that.

 

[LondonJohn]

It's not good for the UK that both parties now seem to be dominated by the hard line ideologues.

I would virtually guarantee that the Labour party won't be for much longer....

And actually, I suspect that Johnson might turn out to be a lot less of a problem than many people fear, once he's secured a safe majority in parliament and.....erm.... Got Brexit Done. The teeth of the hard-right ERG will have been massively blunted by the election outcome, and Johnson wil also owe no debt of gratitude to Farage and his crew. I will make a bet now that his first budget and his first year in office might surprise people (and I'm in no way a Johnson cheerleader)

 

[dudalb]

I suspect a major rebellion against Corbyn is going to be undeway in Labor by this time Monday.

 

[SpitfireIX]

It's a good thing in the US Fixed Terms are written into the Constiution, and are almost impossible for politicians to goof around with.
In fact they can't unless they can get two thirds of both houses of Congress to agree, and then Two Thirds of the states to ratify.

US Constitution, Article V:

The Congress, whenever two thirds of both Houses shall deem it necessary, shall propose Amendments to this Constitution, or, on the Application of the Legislatures of two thirds of the several States, shall call a Convention for proposing Amendments, which, in either Case, shall be valid to all Intents and Purposes, as Part of this Constitution, when ratified by the Legislatures of three fourths of the several States, or by Conventions in three fourths thereof, as the one or the other Mode of Ratification may be proposed by the Congress; Provided that no Amendment which may be made prior to the Year One thousand eight hundred and eight shall in any Manner affect the first and fourth Clauses in the Ninth Section of the first Article; and that no State, without its Consent, shall be deprived of its equal Suffrage in the Senate.​

 

[LondonJohn]

I think the swing vote is proably a lot larger then that.

Oh yes, the total UK swing vote is way larger. But the only swing voters who actually matter and stand to make a material difference are the ones who vote in the key marginal constituencies, of which there are (depending on your cut-off point of course) around 40-50 (out of 650 total). It's only the swing voters in those specific constituencies that matter.

 

[dudalb]

I would virtually guarantee that the Labour party won't be for much longer....

And actually, I suspect that Johnson might turn out to be a lot less of a problem than many people fear, once he's secured a safe majority in parliament and.....erm.... Got Brexit Done. The teeth of the hard-right ERG will have been massively blunted by the election outcome, and Johnson wil also owe no debt of gratitude to Farage and his crew. I will make a bet now that his first budget and his first year in office might surprise people (and I'm in no way a Johnson cheerleader)

If Johnson is smart...a big big if...he knows thata lof of the people who voted for him would turn on him in a minute..he does not seem to have the Cult Of Personality thing going for him the way that Trump does..and would hesistate on insisting on really unpopular legislatation.]

 

[Ethan Thane Athen]

But who decides what is critical national infrastructure....
And forgive me if I get the feeling you don't like the market very much anyway.

Ha, I didn’t understand your earlier reply to me (about not blaming Labour) but now I think I get it, you have me down as a Corbyn supporter. That’s really funny. I think Corbyn is a complete idiot and I’m not even a Labour supporter - right of centre, Liberal Democrat / wetish Tory is probably more my speed.

Anyway, to answer your question, water, power, roads and railways (not necessarily the trains) and probably communications (basic infrastructure at least). Definitely not things like car manufacturing etc - I just about remember the bad old days of British Leyland.

 

[Ethan Thane Athen]

Problem with Corbyn is he was flawed enough so that even if the Tory press lied about him, the lies were believable.

Yes, I think that’s a good point.

 

[dudalb]

Oh yes, the total UK swing vote is way larger. But the only swing voters who actually matter and stand to make a material difference are the ones who vote in the key marginal constituencies, of which there are (depending on your cut-off point of course) around 40-50 (out of 650 total). It's only the swing voters in those specific constituencies that matter.

I have read that the vote that put Trump in the White House was less then 25'000 in a few swing states because of the electorial college...which need to be gotten rid of or at least modified.

 

[dudalb]

Yes, I think that’s a good point.

I don't think that Corbyn is anti semitic, for example, but his hobnobbing with some of the more extreme "Anti Zionist" made him vulnerable to the charge.
He never understood that as Party Leader he would be under a lot more scrutiny then he was as the leader of a faction in the Labor Party. Should have dumped some of his radical connections the instant he was elected party leader. He came off like the eternal college radical.

One big concern I have is that Sanders is sort of a American Corbyn.Just to scary for mainstream voters.

 

[trustbutverify]

The first stage is grief

But the following stages should involve accepting that there were serious problems with Corbyn

Before this debacle, talk like that would have been considered war-mongering, Zionist treason within Labour's power center. It probably will remain that way for quite a while.

I would have voted for Corbyn's party, Had I held British citizenship. But with my nose firmly clamped.

 

[LondonJohn]

I suspect a major rebellion against Corbyn is going to be undeway in Labor by this time Monday.

Oh I suspect that Tom Watson and Emily Thornberry (at the very least) had already put the mechanism of a challenge in place before polling day. They will have either sounded out or secured funding sources, and built a support team from amongst other senior Labour MPs.

And as such, I fully expect things to be well underway by Monday. I expect Corbyn to announce he's stepping down (following the election of a new leader) some today (Friday). Things will be going gangbusters behind closed doors today and over the weekend as potential candidates try to figure out what level of support they might muster, and how they'll pay. I also imagine that the bosses of the 7 largest trades unions will be fairly heavily engaged today and over the weekend.

Interesting times ahead.....

 

[Ethan Thane Athen]

I don't think that Corbyn is anti semitic, for example, but his hobnobbing with some of the more extreme "Anti Zionist" made him vulnerable to the charge.
He never understood that as Party Leader he would be under a lot more scrutiny then he was as the leader of a faction in the Labor Party. Should have dumped some of his radical connections the instant he was elected party leader.

Absolutely. He’s old school militant Labour and one of their trends was support of the PLO. Much more anti Israel than anti Jew. As I think, most of the supposedly anti-Semitic stuff in the Labour Party is - though I’m sure there are some genuine issues as well. His dealing with it was pathetic though, which kept it rumbling on.

 

[dudalb]

Ha, I didn’t understand your earlier reply to me (about not blaming Labour) but now I think I get it, you have me down as a Corbyn supporter. That’s really funny. I think Corbyn is a complete idiot and I’m not even a Labour supporter - right of centre, Liberal Democrat / wetish Tory is probably more my speed.

Anyway, to answer your question, water, power, roads and railways (not necessarily the trains) and probably communications (basic infrastructure at least). Definitely not things like car manufacturing etc - I just about remember the bad old days of British Leyland.

Agree with water, power and roads, but not so sure about railways. You don't see much clamor in the US for the Railroads to be nationalized.
Communications I disagree with. Don't want a government monopoly on the Internet.

 

[Arcade22]

Probably very happy in Moscow over this.

Corbyn is the Russian friendly one. I think that they would rather have a "pro-peace" candidate like him, who is hostile to NATO and would probably oppose doing anything about Russian military aggression, even if he is in the end overruled by everyone else (like with Trump).