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Ed 737 Max Crashes (was Shutdown caused Boeing crash.)

Today’s “The Daily” podcast was a look into Boeing’s president’s appearance before Congress and a brief history of Boeing’s problems.

Here's a link to that podcast:

What Boeing Knew

Transcript

It's basically a summary of Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg testifying before congress. A lot of hard questions were asked. Ted Cruz (of all people) grilled the CEO over text messages between Boeing's top test pilots about problems with MCAS they found on the simulator back in February (before the second crash). Other senators asked him about why he kept saying that he was "accountable" but hadn't taken any kind of pay cut. The CEO started his testimony by mentioning that he grew up on a farm in Iowa, and when he was asked particularly difficult questions he kept going back to this point and repeating that he's an Iowa farm boy like it was some kind of get out of jail free card. After the hearing ended, the mother of one of the victims confronted him about that.
 
As opposed to discovering that the post ... as is ... being a product of The Onion was such a herculean task?

Okay. Whatever.

One sentence is all it takes.

You are clearly quite willing to type a lot in defense of not having to type at all.

Just sayin'

Yes, I am. (Although "a lot" is a relative term.)

What of it? So are you, in pursuit of what is an incredibly trivial complaint.

Just sayin'.

You seem to be taking for granted that this was a valid critique. Not everyone agrees.

Do you think a significant percentage of people would have read that post without clicking on the link or seeing with their browser tool what the link was, and actually believed that it was a real report and not parody.

It may be possible to keep some people from confusing parody with fact to some degree, but it isn't possible for such efforts to be 100% perfect. Any parody is going to be mistaken by some fraction of its readers.

Perhaps we should just forbid parody on the internet altogether. I'm sure it would be a a better place for such Draconian action.

I think such concerns would be better placed critiquing articles which present blatant falsehoods as fact without any way at all offered by the providers to determine that the articles are not based in fact, like, for example, most (if not all) of what comes from Breitbart, Faux News, etc., rather than transparently obvious parodies.

But you go ahead and devote your energies to where you think they are best used.

You don't have to be actively subversive to be an instrument in furthering disinformation spread.

I'm amazed at the lengths people go to in order to not accept a valid critique of their behavior and an explanation of what (albeit unseen) problems can arise from them.

Will you lot either get a ******* room or take it to PM! Thank you

Now, back on topic...

Here's a link to that podcast:

What Boeing Knew

Transcript

It's basically a summary of Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg testifying before congress. A lot of hard questions were asked. Ted Cruz (of all people) grilled the CEO over text messages between Boeing's top test pilots about problems with MCAS they found on the simulator back in February (before the second crash). Other senators asked him about why he kept saying that he was "accountable" but hadn't taken any kind of pay cut. The CEO started his testimony by mentioning that he grew up on a farm in Iowa, and when he was asked particularly difficult questions he kept going back to this point and repeating that he's an Iowa farm boy like it was some kind of get out of jail free card. After the hearing ended, the mother of one of the victims confronted him about that.



Jesus H Tapdancing Christ!! Boeing knew quite a bit more than I thought. I hadn't heard before about the concerns raised in 2015 (before the Max's first flight) that engineers were concerned about driving MCAS off only one AoA sensor, and that it could create a single point of failure scenario. If I had designed a system with such a potential failure mode, my boss would have ripped me a new one right there.
 
Former Boeing manager says he warned company of problems prior to 737 crashes

It just keeps getting worse for Boeing.

“Frankly right now all my internal warning bells are going off,” Pierson said in an email to Scott Campbell, the general manager of the 737 Max program, on June 9, 2018. "And for the first time in my life, I’m sorry to say that I’m hesitant about putting my family on a Boeing airplane."


Pierson said he worried the combination of exhausted workers pushed to produce more, faster, could lead to critical mistakes. He offered a recommendation huge in scope and consequences: shut down the production line for a limited amount of time. He said he believed the workers needed a more stable environment to finish building the planes already in progress.

The advice to shut down production went unheeded. Four months later, a 737 Max built at the Renton plant plunged into the sea near Indonesia. All 189 people aboard the Lion Air flight were killed in the October 2018 crash.

“I cried a lot,” Pierson told NBC News. “I’m mad at myself because I felt like I could have done more.”

Pierson kept up his efforts to draw attention to the plant in the aftermath of the Lion Air crash. He wrote emails to Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg and spoke with the company’s general counsel. Dissatisfied by the responses, he wrote to the Boeing board of directors on Feb. 19, 2019.

“I have no interest in scaring the public or wasting anyone’s time,” Pierson wrote. “I also don’t want to wake up one morning and hear about another tragedy and have personal regrets.”

Tragedy struck again 19 days later. On March 10, 2019, a 737 Max crashed in Ethiopia, killing all 157 people aboard the Ethiopian Airlines flight
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https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-new...he-warned-company-problems-prior-737-n1098536
 
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I saw that report on the news.

But as the long segment continued, I kept waiting for the link between the practices the whistleblower complained about and the failure of the MCAS system that led to the two 737 Max accidents. It never came.

I’m in no way saying that the issues were not egregious enough to conceivably lead to an accident. Only that it appears they did not in these cases.
 
I saw that report on the news.

But as the long segment continued, I kept waiting for the link between the practices the whistleblower complained about and the failure of the MCAS system that led to the two 737 Max accidents. It never came.

I’m in no way saying that the issues were not egregious enough to conceivably lead to an accident. Only that it appears they did not in these cases.

Here's the thing though - there may not be a direct link between the management of Boeing and the failure of MCAS, but it the whole culture at Boeing was toxic. That kind of culture comes down from the hierarchy, and it affects the WHOLE company in all its various departments. I will digress for a moment to explain

With my interest in both Aviation and Space Technology, I have become fairly well read and quite familiar concerning the failings at NASA that led to both the Challenger and Columbia disasters. What I am seeing at Boeing is looking very familiar, particularly such things as "normalisation of deviance", a concept in which, when problems occur, and continue to occur even though no critical failure occurs in a given flight, the engineers start to accept this as a normal failure rather than fully investigating them and trying to ascertain of any of those problems could lead to more serious failure modes

In the case of Challenger, engineers knew that there had been a number of previous occasions when the O-Rings had come close to complete failure, but they tended to minimize their concern. Only one engineer, Roger Boisjoly, truly recognised the potential for catastrophic failure, but he was sidelined by the engineering bosses.

In the case of Columbia, engineers knew that large chunks of insulating foam regularly broke off during launch. This was mostly, early in the launch - low speed low altitude, and was just accepted as normal. No one investigated what might happen if a chunk broke off off after Max Q when the shuttle was travelling at Mach 2+

Now back to the case of Boeing and the Max 8, Boeing knew there were reports of the aircraft pitching nose down against the commands of the pilot. They also knew that some of their own engineers were really concerned that MCAS was not always working the way it was supposed to. While there was a procedure for how to deal with this problem, no-one really checked if those procedures were even feasible. Boeing "normalised this deviance" from correct operations, effectively saying that the pilots would deal with it if it happened.... and then they failed to even tell the pilots about it at all.

In all three cases I have talked about above, it is the toxic and lackadaisical culture that sets the stage for these kinds of errors of judgement to be made. The culture at NASA at those times, and the culture at Boeing now, are strikingly similar - too similar to ignore.

Further reading about the NASA culture at the time of Challenger and Columbia, for those who are interested (its only 9 pages)

https://josephhall.org/papers/nasa.pdf
 
Boeing had also recently been fined for installing parts it knew were faulty on the previous 737 model, the 737NG. The manufacturer of the parts had already shipped them to Boeing them realised the manufacturing process had not met the Boeing requirements, presumably after quality testing processes revealed the error. Boeing just installed them anyway.
 
Boeing had also recently been fined for installing parts it knew were faulty on the previous 737 model, the 737NG. The manufacturer of the parts had already shipped them to Boeing them realised the manufacturing process had not met the Boeing requirements, presumably after quality testing processes revealed the error. Boeing just installed them anyway.

Well once again, that is a matter of poor judgement, a symptom of a slack management attitude to safety.
 
Boeing announces plans to pause production of the MAX.



https://edition.cnn.com/2019/12/16/business/boeing-suspends-737-max-production/index.html


It just goes from bad to worse for Boeing.



Well, given that a) the 737 Max still hasn't been recertified, and that therefore b) there's not a snowball's chance in hell that any airline or leasing company will be placing significant order sizes for the type in the forseeable future..... it follows almost-necessarily that c) Boeing would have to either dramatically slow down or cease production (which, for Boeing in Renton, equates to assembly) of the type once its current aircraft under production had been finished. Boeing also already has hundreds of completed 737 Max aircraft sitting on the tarmac as inventory

Kinda inevitable. The 737 Max line will remain mothballed and component supplier facilities will remain on fairly short notice, in order for assembly to recommence should there be recertification and the resumption of significant order sizes.
 
Well, given that a) the 737 Max still hasn't been recertified, and that therefore b) there's not a snowball's chance in hell that any airline or leasing company will be placing significant order sizes for the type in the forseeable future..... it follows almost-necessarily that c) Boeing would have to either dramatically slow down or cease production (which, for Boeing in Renton, equates to assembly) of the type once its current aircraft under production had been finished. Boeing also already has hundreds of completed 737 Max aircraft sitting on the tarmac as inventory

Kinda inevitable. The 737 Max line will remain mothballed and component supplier facilities will remain on fairly short notice, in order for assembly to recommence should there be recertification and the resumption of significant order sizes.

I am planning a trip through the USA (on my way to England) in 18 to 24 months time. I will be researching to make sure that I don't fly on any airlines flying the 737 Max.

I'm sure I'm not the only one who would be doing this.
 
I am planning a trip through the USA (on my way to England) in 18 to 24 months time. I will be researching to make sure that I don't fly on any airlines flying the 737 Max.

I'm sure I'm not the only one who would be doing this.

Um that would be all of them, no one can fly them at this time.

I think that by now they are going over the entire plane with a fine tooth comb and it will be fine when/if it gets recertified to fly. They are not just going to patch the MCAS system, but looking at everything like they should have done the first time instead of taking Boeing's word for it.
 
I am planning a trip through the USA (on my way to England) in 18 to 24 months time. I will be researching to make sure that I don't fly on any airlines flying the 737 Max.

I'm sure I'm not the only one who would be doing this.

Um that would be all of them, no one can fly them at this time.

I think that by now they are going over the entire plane with a fine tooth comb and it will be fine when/if it gets recertified to fly. They are not just going to patch the MCAS system, but looking at everything like they should have done the first time instead of taking Boeing's word for it.

If they aren't flying in 18-24 months, Boeing really has a problem.

Someone on the news said something about Boeing not having shut down the line in 20 years. I'm not sure what they were referring to unless it was the SPEEA strike of early 2000.
 
If they aren't flying in 18-24 months, Boeing really has a problem.

Someone on the news said something about Boeing not having shut down the line in 20 years. I'm not sure what they were referring to unless it was the SPEEA strike of early 2000.



Or is it something like a reference to the 757 line shutting (in Everett I think) in the early 2000s?
 
Um that would be all of them, no one can fly them at this time.

I think that by now they are going over the entire plane with a fine tooth comb and it will be fine when/if it gets recertified to fly. They are not just going to patch the MCAS system, but looking at everything like they should have done the first time instead of taking Boeing's word for it.



Yep. I'll be absolutely as confident flying in a 737 Max if/when they get recertified than on any other commercial airliner. In fact, probably slightly more confident - since, as you point out, now everyone (from Boeing itself through to the regulatory agencies through to the airlines through to the insurance companies) will be giving the entire design and assembly of the 737 Max the n-th degree of scrutiny this time around.
 
If they aren't flying in 18-24 months, Boeing really has a problem.

Someone on the news said something about Boeing not having shut down the line in 20 years. I'm not sure what they were referring to unless it was the SPEEA strike of early 2000.

Can it? It is too big to fail after all, how would it get saved to prevent an airbus monopoly in that situation?
 
Can it? It is too big to fail after all, how would it get saved to prevent an airbus monopoly in that situation?


Well firstly, the 737 Max is only one aircraft size/configuration. Its Airbus competitor type is the A320/A320Neo. Boeing's big company bet is still the Dreamliner (and rumoured multiple size variants in a future Dreamliner series).

Plus the 737 Max was nothing more than an iteration of the 737 model (though of course it's one part of that iteration which has caused all the problems). It's still entirely based on the basic 737 platform though. So in fact - and especially given that the previous iterations of the 737 have been the most popular, and among the most profitable, commercial aircraft in history - it would be entirely feasible for Boeing to revert back to making the previous version of the 737 (the 737 NextGen) on the same line, and retro-converting the existing inventory of 737 Max aircraft to the same previous spec.

There seems little doubt in the industry that Boeing has medium-term plans to abandon the 737 marque (and after all, the basic airframe design is now over 50 years old!!) in favour of a ground-up-designed new model with similar capacity, range and intended usage. It would actually be a huge surprise if Boeing is not already in (confidential, of course) advanced development of such an aircraft; it's likely that the 737 Max was only intended as a stop-gap marginal improvement to the 737 while development of the new aircraft was taking place.

Boeing has without doubt taken a big reputational hit over this - not only for the flaws in the design itself, but also (and probably moreso) for its long refusal to admit to faults/problems until its hand was forced. But reputations can be restored, and it will take a lot more than this for Boeing to concede any sector of the commercial aviation market (let alone all of it) to Airbus or anyone else.
 

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