UK - December 2019 General Election

[Dave Rogers]

I am expecting to hear over the next few weeks that voting for the Tories will lead to a hard brexit, which will be followed by Scotland having indy ref 2 and leaving the union.
How realistic is that second threat if the first condition is met. Hasn't Ireland shown us, and the SNP arguments demonstrated that an independent Scotland in the EU would need a hard border somewhere north of Hadrian's wall? Would Scots really choose that option? Is indy ref 2 an empty threat as far as this campaign is concerned?

Not seeing that, TBH. The whole issue over the Irish border stems from the fact that somewhat over half (currently) of its population feel it should remain in the UK, and somewhat less than half (currently) that it should become part of the Republic of Ireland, and that these two factions have in the past come into violent conflict with covert support from the state each respectively wants to be part of. A hard border either within Ireland or in the Irish Sea is therefore a red rag to one side or the other because it supports the other side's plan of action. A hard Scottish border wouldn't have the same issue because it wouldn't involve Scotland becoming part of a different state that a large part of its population are prepared to kill or die to prevent it becoming part of; it would just involve Scotland becoming an independent country much like any other independent country.

Dave

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

A charismatic and competent left-winger without the taint of historical support for the IRA an anti-Semitism might stand a chance.

I don't have a problem with a centreist leader as long as the party gets to deliver progressive policies. It's be the reverse of the Conservatives, promise anodyne things but when in government, deliver something rather different.

People are voting against their best interests but that's because they've believed the hype that the EU and immigrants are responsible for all the ills in society.

I don't see anyone charismatic and competent enough to stand a chance against the right wing press if they actually come with left-wing policies they will be branded a Marxist throwback just like Corbyn. If they can't get them on supporting terrorists, they will get them on eating a bacon sandwich, being a bit Northern, or driving a car. If they can't find anything they will just make something up.

People believe what they are told by the Mail and the Sun and the Express that's the problem and nothing is going to change until that changes.

 

[Lothian]

Not seeing that, TBH. The whole issue over the Irish border stems from the fact that somewhat over half (currently) of its population feel it should remain in the UK, and somewhat less than half (currently) that it should become part of the Republic of Ireland, and that these two factions have in the past come into violent conflict with covert support from the state each respectively wants to be part of. A hard border either within Ireland or in the Irish Sea is therefore a red rag to one side or the other because it supports the other side's plan of action. A hard Scottish border wouldn't have the same issue because it wouldn't involve Scotland becoming part of a different state that a large part of its population are prepared to kill or die to prevent it becoming part of; it would just involve Scotland becoming an independent country much like any other independent country.

Dave

I was't referring to unionists and separatists taking up arms rather that there would need to be customs checks and import taxes paid on all* goods crossing the England Scotland border,




*Bar a literal handful

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Didn't you say that you weren't going to vote? I'm not sure I see a huge amount of difference between voting against your own self-interest and abstaining so that other people can vote against your self-interest for you.

I said I am going to vote Green if they stand, but that my vote won't make the slightest bit of difference under FPTP.

I have no time for these people who get on their high horse about voting as if that's the key to making a difference.

 

[Andy_Ross]

As I expected, Nigel Farage wants an electoral pact with the Conservatives (which IMO they will enthusiastically agree to) because he doesn't want power, he wants money and influence and having a handful of MPs and the gratitude of the Conservative MP is a great way to achieve that.

Conservative Remainers (like two of the members of Wyld Bird Seed) will vote Conservative and IMO this news means that the Conservative majority could easily be 150-200

Farage is demanding the Tories drop the Brexit agreement and go for a 'clean break' as condition of a pact.
He wants the Tories to become the Brexit Party.
It's not going to happen.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I was't referring to unionists and separatists taking up arms rather that there would need to be customs checks and import taxes paid on all* goods crossing the England Scotland border,




*Bar a literal handful

What happened to the 'technological solutions'?

 

[Dave Rogers]

What happened to the 'technological solutions'?

It turns out they only apply to consignments carried by pack unicorn.

Dave

 

[Dave Rogers]

Farage is demanding the Tories drop the Brexit agreement and go for a 'clean break' as condition of a pact.
He wants the Tories to become the Brexit Party.
It's not going to happen.

That's good, because if the Tories don't go for it then the Brexit Party will clip as many votes off them as they can manage, and if they do go for it then I suspect they'll be too extreme for a lot of Brexit supporters who'll just haveto vote Labour.

Dave

 

[Ethan Thane Athen]

It can work. Here in Finland there is a capped limit to how much the elderly need to contribute towards 24/7 care (iirc it is circa €600-€700 pa max for a hospital bed in a personal room). Thus the rich get to keep their assets and pass it on to the next generation. How is this done, people do pay a higher percentage in income tax but then the average state pension is €2,400 pcm (based on lifetime earnings), university education is free and no-one need worry if they are pregnant or ill as new parents get up to three years leave with their job kept safe.

It's a new SDP government in place but had been a right wing coalition and the True Finns (perusuomalaiset, persut for short) are even more keen on a welfare state for all despite being right wing. So not even a left wing idea.

So there are different models. Even if care for the elderly is eased, it doesn't necessarily follow that the better off are penalised.

I love the Nordic countries. They seem easily the closest to having got the balance right between market and state.

 

[Ethan Thane Athen]

I remember arguing vociferously for a Yes in that referendum, not on the grounds that AV was a good idea, but on the grounds that if it was a No vote we'd be told that the British people had ratified FPTP and that was decided, forever.

But in reality (and I've seen the figures worked through somewhere), AV is even more inclined to favour the "big two" and wouldn't have helped in the slightest. It was an absolute stroke of genius of Cameron to substitute "PR" with an option that's nothing like PR and could be knocked over like an Aunt Sally.

I only remember it vaguely but I do remember thinking 'Damn, that's not PR, that's some rubbish alternative designed to lose the vote' when it came out and wondering how the hell they'd got away with limiting it that way. Total con.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Farage is demanding the Tories drop the Brexit agreement and go for a 'clean break' as condition of a pact.
He wants the Tories to become the Brexit Party.
It's not going to happen.

The thing is of course you have to differentiate between what these people say they want, what they actually want, what is within the realms of possibility and what will actually happen.

The handlers and funders of Farage, Bojo, Trump etc call the shots. So if they don't want Brexit Party spoilers competing with Tories or vice versa it won't happen.

BP will focus on Labour seats quite probably and maybe a few remainer Tories or rebels.

 

[Ethan Thane Athen]

The only people who think he is a horrid leader are the non-dom tabloid press, Tories and LibDems.

Funny dat.

Not true. I know plenty of Labour supporters (I live in one of the safest Labour seats in the country) who don't like him.

I'm a centrist chameleon - I have voted, Tory, Labour, LibDem and Green depending on candidate and party policies. I have a smidgen of respect for Corbyn in that he's one of a vanishingly few politicians who seems to believe in what he stands for (though he was worryingly inept about the whole stance on Brexit as he clearly hates the EU but just for completely different reasons to the Tories) - in a similar way to which I had enormous respect for Tony Benn, even though I disagreed with almost all his views, as he stuck to his principles and beliefs. However, I think Corbyn is a rubbish leader and possibly the only Labour leader who could lose an election against a party that has been as appalling as the Tories, with a leader as inept as Boris.

I curse the day Labour elected the wrong Milliband brother and then panicked and shifted back to an outdated mode of left wing politics.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Nigel says if he doesn't get a pact with Boris his party will contest every seat.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Nigel says if he doesn't get a pact with Boris his party will contest every seat.

And Boris said we would leave the EU on Oct 31st. Lying liars lie.

 

[Rolfe]

I am expecting to hear over the next few weeks that voting for the Tories will lead to a hard brexit, which will be followed by Scotland having indy ref 2 and leaving the union.
How realistic is that second threat if the first condition is met. Hasn't Ireland shown us, and the SNP arguments demonstrated that an independent Scotland in the EU would need a hard border somewhere north of Hadrian's wall? Would Scots really choose that option? Is indy ref 2 an empty threat as far as this campaign is concerned?

Polling has shown that relatively few people care about customs checks on the Scottish border. It's much shorter than the internal border in Ireland, it mostly runs along the top of the Cheviots where it doesn't bother anyone, and there are relatively few minor roads crossing it. It also doesn't run through the middle of farmyards or pubs as the Irish one does. The number of people who would be inconvenienced or care about it is quite small.

It also doesn't have a history of people blowing things up and shooting people. Most people who actually have a passport know that customs checks between countries where there is reasonable goodwill on both sides are no big deal. Scotland certainly has no ill will, and I suspect a post-Brexit England won't be able to affort to develop any.

 

[Worm]

We must repatriate this swimming pool!

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Polling has shown that relatively few people care about customs checks on the Scottish border. It's much shorter than the internal border in Ireland, it mostly runs along the top of the Cheviots where it doesn't bother anyone, and there are relatively few minor roads crossing it. It also doesn't run through the middle of farmyards or pubs as the Irish one does. The number of people who would be inconvenienced or care about it is quite small.

It also doesn't have a history of people blowing things up and shooting people. Most people who actually have a passport know that customs checks between countries where there is reasonable goodwill on both sides are no big deal. Scotland certainly has no ill will, and I suspect a post-Brexit England won't be able to affort to develop any.

A lot depends on the future UK/rUK relationship with England. I would imagine that it could be a pain to import/export to/from Scotland via England to/from the EU if things are not plain sailing in terms of customs unions etc in future.

Of course there is no need to go via England but would probably need a fair amount of investment to put in place new direct routes to Rotterdam, Calais etc.

I think a border between Scotland and England would be psychologically bothersome for a lot of people and it's obviously less good than a customs union. But whether it would be a deal breaker, who knows.

 

[The Don]

The only people who think he is a horrid leader are the non-dom tabloid press, Tories and LibDems.

Funny dat.

I was a Labour Party member for 25 years and have voted Labour in every General Election since 1987 (the first one I was able to vote in) - I think he is a horrid leader.

Wyld Bird Seed's bassist has voted Labour for even longer (he is older than I and has voted Labour since 1979) - he thinks Corbyn is a terrible leader.

The bassist's daughter is only 25 and was a member of Labour until last year until last year when she resigned from the party because of Corbyn's terrible leadership and stance on Brexit.

Our next door neighbours have voted Labour for over 50 years and have been party members for most of that time - they think Corbyn is a terrible leader.

 

[Rolfe]

A lot depends on the future UK/rUK relationship with England. I would imagine that it could be a pain to import/export to/from Scotland via England to/from the EU if things are not plain sailing in terms of customs unions etc in future.

Of course there is no need to go via England but would probably need a fair amount of investment to put in place new direct routes to Rotterdam, Calais etc.

I think a border between Scotland and England would be psychologically bothersome for a lot of people and it's obviously less good than a customs union. But whether it would be a deal breaker, who knows.

We need to redevelop our historical direct trading links with the continent in any case. These have been deliberately strangled in order to keep Scotland dependent on England and to skew the balance of payment figures by being able to claim that anything exported from an English port is an English export, even if it drove there non-stop in a lorry from Dundee. Look at the export figures for Scotch whisky from England. England doesn't produce Scotch whisky.

There has been polling about this. Very few people care and they're almost entirely the ones who aren't going to be voting SNP or Yes in the first place, so in electoral terms it doesn't much matter.

 

[Lothian]

There has been polling about this. Very few people care and they're almost entirely the ones who aren't going to be voting SNP or Yes in the first place, so in electoral terms it doesn't much matter.

Do you have a link?