Canada Election: 2019

[Belz...]

I have no issues with a Liberal minority. Lib/NDP coalition is likely to work for a while.

Yeah, that's what I expected would happen, though I'm disappointed the NDP didn't get more seats, and a little miffed that the Bloc did.

 

[Horatius]

Does that mean they'll start pushing for proportional representation now?

This might be the election that actually does produce some sort of change to the FPTP system. I can't imagine any party is really happy with this outcome!

 

[Steve]

That's Alberta's fault. But if they ask nicely, I'll forgive them.

After I posted that there was a guy on tv showing some of the 80+% conservative ridings in Alberta. That will skew the popular vote numbers fast.

Also interesting that Jody Wilson-Raybould won as an independent. Trudeau won't be happy about that even though it is rather meaningless in the workings of government.

 

[Border Reiver]

Especially the PPC, given that despite their rather vocal online presence produced exactly 0 MPs and failed to get their incumbent leader re-elected (or perhaps because this would be the first election for this party). Had there been a proportional system in place that particular party might have managed up to three seats based on their % of the popular vote.

I'd like to see a shift to a proportional representation system, based on the main geographic regions of the country (Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, the Prairies, BC and the North), be the outcome of this election. Something to ensure that all regions of the country have representation in Cabinet, and that the political demographics of the country are more closely aligned with the breakdown in Parliament. Because right now, AB and SK are shut out of Cabinet and that can only fuel resentment.

 

[Belz...]

Especially the PPC, given that despite their rather vocal online presence produced exactly 0 MPs

To be fair, that's about what a rather vocal online presence is worth.

 

[Segnosaur]

Interesting that Cons are ahead in the popular vote.

Does that mean they'll start pushing for proportional representation now?

I doubt it.

Yes, it may seem the conservatives got 'screwed' this election. But, I doubt the conservatives would think Proportional representation was the solution.

In all of the elections Canada has had, there have only been 2 elections where one party won by getting a majority of the popular vote. (Usually a the winning party gets around 40% of the vote.) If they pushed for proportional representation, then what would happen is that in future elections they would reduce their chance of a majority.

This might be the election that actually does produce some sort of change to the FPTP system.

I doubt it.

Both the Liberals and NDP would be at cross-purposes. The NDP would want some sort of proportional representation (which usually gives them the opportunity for more seats). The Liberals would want some sort of ranked ballot, which gives THEM the chance for more seats.

And both proportional representation and ranked ballots would negatively impact the conservatives, so they would want to keep the status quo.

I can't see either party wanting to give up potential benefits in future elections to correct a problem from a past election.

I can't imagine any party is really happy with this outcome!

Parties have to think long term though.... what's going to be best in future elections. This past election may have been an aberration.

 

[Segnosaur]

I have no issues with a Liberal minority. Lib/NDP coalition is likely to work for a while.

The election map looks... weird.

I know... empty parts of the country with very few people don't really deserve equal representation. But when you look at how each region of the country voted, there is a lot more conservative blue and NDP gold than there is Liberal red. (Looks like the Liberal support was concentrated in a few small geographic areas.)

Map from Wikipedia:

 

[Belz...]

The election map looks... weird.

I know... empty parts of the country with very few people don't really deserve equal representation. But when you look at how each region of the country voted, there is a lot more conservative blue and NDP gold than there is Liberal red. (Looks like the Liberal support was concentrated in a few small geographic areas.)

Map from Wikipedia:

This is entirely expected.

 

[Segnosaur]

The election map looks... weird.

I know... empty parts of the country with very few people don't really deserve equal representation. But when you look at how each region of the country voted, there is a lot more conservative blue and NDP gold than there is Liberal red. (Looks like the Liberal support was concentrated in a few small geographic areas.)

This is entirely expected.

I know there were certain expectations, but it still looks weird.

And there is a lot fewer liberal areas in Quebec and the maritimes than I was expecting. And Ford didn't manage to piss off enough Ontario voters to push more areas to the Liberals.

 

[Belz...]

I know there were certain expectations, but it still looks weird.

What's weird about it? It looks like a less fractured but more colourful map than what we see for US elections.

 

[Thanz]

I think that when you look at it there is really a divide on rural/urban lines. Cities (not alberta/sask) tended to vote left (Liberal/NDP/Green) while the rest voted more conservative. You really see it in Ontario with Liberal support in Windsor, London, GTA, Ottawa. Even the more rural ridings the liberals won tend to have a larger city (Thunder Bay, the Sault)

 

[Belz...]

Hey, Thanz!

We don't see much of you lately. Good to see you.

 

[Segnosaur]

What's weird about it?

I already mentioned a few things... I thought the Liberals would hold more seats in Atlantic Canada and Quebec, I'm surprised they didn't get a few more seats in the Toronto area, after Ford pissed off so many people.

I do think its problematic when a ruling party is unable to obtain ANY seats in certain geographical areas.

It looks like a less fractured but more colourful map than what we see for US elections.

The U.S. elections are also problematic, so saying we are better than the U.S. is a bit like saying Leprosy is better than Ebola.

 

[dudalb]

I don't suppose you know anything about the province in question, right?

Hell, guy probably never heard of Montcalm or Wolfe and skipped US History the day the French and Indian Wars were discussed.

 

[dudalb]

I think that when you look at it there is really a divide on rural/urban lines. Cities (not alberta/sask) tended to vote left (Liberal/NDP/Green) while the rest voted more conservative. You really see it in Ontario with Liberal support in Windsor, London, GTA, Ottawa. Even the more rural ridings the liberals won tend to have a larger city (Thunder Bay, the Sault)

This is nothing new. The Urban and Rural devide goes back centuries;major issue in Tudor England for example.

 

[dudalb]

Especially the PPC, given that despite their rather vocal online presence produced exactly 0 MPs and failed to get their incumbent leader re-elected (or perhaps because this would be the first election for this party). Had there been a proportional system in place that particular party might have managed up to three seats based on their % of the popular vote.

I'd like to see a shift to a proportional representation system, based on the main geographic regions of the country (Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, the Prairies, BC and the North), be the outcome of this election. Something to ensure that all regions of the country have representation in Cabinet, and that the political demographics of the country are more closely aligned with the breakdown in Parliament. Because right now, AB and SK are shut out of Cabinet and that can only fuel resentment.

US tried to solve the problem of keeping the smaller in population states from being trampled by the larger states with the US Senate where each state,regardless of population, has two members.
Quite a few people here want to change that, I am not so sure because it would only inflame an already divisive Urban Rural split in the US.

 

[dudalb]

So Trudeau hangs on by his fingernails...

 

[Steve]

So Trudeau hangs on by his fingernails...

Well, a little more that that. Initially I think the alliance with the NDP will be quite amicable and strong enough to pass legislation. Where it could fall apart will be on environmental issues such as pipelines. If Liberals behave(no more scandals) and the NDP brings down the minority government over one of their not nationally supported pet issues I can see a return to a Liberal majority

 

[Segnosaur]

US tried to solve the problem of keeping the smaller in population states from being trampled by the larger states with the US Senate where each state,regardless of population, has two members.
Quite a few people here want to change that, I am not so sure because it would only inflame an already divisive Urban Rural split in the US.

Canada already sort of does that.... While ridings usually have ~75,000 voters, those in Ontario/Quebec/B.C. have closer to 80,000 voters per riding, while the maritimes and territories have under 70,000. This gives a little more political weight to smaller provinces than they would otherwise have based on population alone.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_of_Canadian_federal_ridings

 

[Segnosaur]

Well, a little more that that. Initially I think the alliance with the NDP will be quite amicable and strong enough to pass legislation. Where it could fall apart will be on environmental issues such as pipelines. If Liberals behave(no more scandals) and the NDP brings down the minority government over one of their not nationally supported pet issues I can see a return to a Liberal majority

I guess the big question now is how strong/formal will an alliance be. Will they go all the way and have NDP members appointed to Cabinet? (Rare in this type of parliamentary system, but possible.) Some sort of formal agreement? Or just ad hoc support on an issue by issue basis?