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The Trump Presidency: Sweet/Sweat 16

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I don't think I'm a CTist. But after learning that the Saudi Oil hit resulted in a comparatively small 5% reduction in output, my first thought was "wag the dog." If the Houthi claim of a drone strike turns out to be bogus, I really do see it as possible that the Saudis themselves could have arranged this sabotage, with or without Trump Admin complicity, to serve two goals. Sic the US on their rival, Iran, and give Trump a potential popularity boost among the gung ho, "F! yeah, America!" electorate.

It's against character though. The Saudis will gleefully butcher people with chainsaws, ram planes into towers, and genocide co-religionists, but they wouldn't do something that makes them look foolish or weak.
 
Trump Tweets

Beautiful evening in New Mexico with Great American Patriots!

We are all united by the same love of Country, the same devotion to family, and the same profound faith that America is blessed by the eternal grace of ALMIGHTY GOD!

Bound by these convictions, we will campaign for every vote & we will WIN the Great State of NEW MEXICO in 2020!

If you want to stop the drug smugglers, human traffickers, and vicious MS-13 gang members from threatening our communities and poisoning our youth, you have only one choice — you must elect more REPUBLICANS! #KAG2020

He can say that and keep a straight face. He does have an incredible talent for something.

The "same devotion to family" is the part that stunned me. The man who has cheated on all 3 of his wives, who never changed a diaper, and who thought that men who help with the children are 'acting like wives' and believed his part in the family was only to make the money thinks that is family 'devotion'.:jaw-dropp
 
The "same devotion to family" is the part that stunned me. The man who has cheated on all 3 of his wives, who never changed a diaper, and who thought that men who help with the children are 'acting like wives' and believed his part in the family was only to make the money thinks that is family 'devotion'.:jaw-dropp

He can pick Tiffany out of a line-up, what more can you want in a devoted family man?
 
I don't think I'm a CTist. But after learning that the Saudi Oil hit resulted in a comparatively small 5% reduction in output, my first thought was "wag the dog." If the Houthi claim of a drone strike turns out to be bogus, I really do see it as possible that the Saudis themselves could have arranged this sabotage, with or without Trump Admin complicity, to serve two goals. Sic the US on their rival, Iran, and give Trump a potential popularity boost among the gung ho, "F! yeah, America!" electorate.



See, this is what distinguishes a plausible theory about a conspiracy from a "conspiracy theory" as a term of art.

There's nothing obviously fantastical about anything you've said there. The attack is relatively small and uncomplicated, such that a small group of dedicated agents could carry it out and keep it a secret. The attack used known, off the shelf equipment, and used it in the way it was designed to be used (hell, just cross out "Saudi" and pencil in "Iran", and that's exactly what the officials are saying happened). It directly implicates the people the alleged conspirators want to attack. The damage is just enough to justify their goals, without doing significant or lasting harm to their own capabilities. And the target was public enough to make a point, but controlled enough that they can prevent anyone else from finding evidence to contradict their claims.

Sure, it's probably still ********, but there's really no way for us to tell.
 
The "same devotion to family" is the part that stunned me. The man who has cheated on all 3 of his wives, who never changed a diaper, and who thought that men who help with the children are 'acting like wives' and believed his part in the family was only to make the money thinks that is family 'devotion'.:jaw-dropp
I don't think that's true.

Not that I doubt Trump has sexist views about the women-folk carrying for the children. I just don't really think Trump has made any real money.

He's racked up debt on behalf of the family though, and spent through money inherited, so there's that.
 
after learning that the Saudi Oil hit resulted in a comparatively small 5% reduction in output


The reported 5% reduction refer to world production. That is 50% of Saudi production, which was 10% of world production. Or maybe export it was. But definitely no small thing.
 
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after learning that the Saudi Oil hit resulted in a comparatively small 5% reduction in output
The reported 5% reduction refer to world production. That is 50% of Saudi production, which was 10% of world production. Or maybe export it was. But definitely no small thing.
True, that 5% was for global production, and doesn't really reflect the much more significant impact in Saudi Arabian production.

But, Saudi Arabia has already restored much of its capacity (up to 70% of normal production now) and is expected to be at full capacity "sooner than expected".

Meanwhile, the attacks have elevated oil prices (even after they reach full production, prices may remain high, because of perceived 'risk'), and several countries have started to dip into their strategic reserves. Both of those will benefit Saudi Arabia, at least in the mid-term.

Now, that doesn't mean that Saudi Arabia was behind the attack. But it does suggest the attacks did not have a serious impact on Saudi Arabia.

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...0834740f3bcd35#block-5d80e37b8f0834740f3bcd35
 
Another day, another investigation:

From: https://thehill.com/homenews/house/461604-house-committee-launches-investigation-into-chao
The House Oversight and Reform Committee on Monday launched an investigation into Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao over whether she is using her office to benefit herself and her family. The investigation follows a series of reports alleging that Chao used her role in the Trump administration to boost Foremost Group, a shipping company founded by her father, and initially didn't divest from stock in a major construction company.

Remember, Chao is the wife of The Turtle, a.k.a. Moscow Mitch. Hopefully it will harm is attempt to get re-elected to the senate.
 
See, this is what distinguishes a plausible theory about a conspiracy from a "conspiracy theory" as a term of art.

There's nothing obviously fantastical about anything you've said there. The attack is relatively small and uncomplicated, such that a small group of dedicated agents could carry it out and keep it a secret. The attack used known, off the shelf equipment, and used it in the way it was designed to be used (hell, just cross out "Saudi" and pencil in "Iran", and that's exactly what the officials are saying happened). It directly implicates the people the alleged conspirators want to attack. The damage is just enough to justify their goals, without doing significant or lasting harm to their own capabilities. And the target was public enough to make a point, but controlled enough that they can prevent anyone else from finding evidence to contradict their claims.

Sure, it's probably still ********, but there's really no way for us to tell.

Conspiracy theories always start out as conspiracy hypotheses. If an investigation fails to support a conspiracy hypothesis and instead finds only evidence that refutes it, then it is upgraded to a conspiracy theory.
 
Conspiracy theories always start out as conspiracy hypotheses. If an investigation fails to support a conspiracy hypothesis and instead finds only evidence that refutes it, then it is upgraded to a conspiracy theory.

And I remain ever ready to jettison my notional constructs whenever evidence contradicts them.

Some more, then... ;)

The location of the drone hits on the tanks were almost astonishingly regular, in position, orientation and size. The claim that the directionality pointed to Iran immediately raised a red flag in my mind, because drones are by nature precisely controllable. If Iran were to be the culprit, might they choose to hit such that the direction did not so clearly point back to them, like the accusing finger of God? Or if Saudi skullduggery were afoot, might they desire to suggest this directionality?
 
I wasn't blaming him and it doesn't matter which POTUS gave it out. That doesn't change my point that it seems strange POTUS's give out awards for sports accomplishments when there is a HoF for each sport that does exactly that. A HoF that Mo has already been inducted into.

As was previously noted, Mo can't get enough love for Trump. The Yankees management is the same way. They count Trump as a friend.

I have no respect for Mo in this regard. He's done philanthropy, and he was the best reliever to ever play the game of baseball, but he's a ******* for supporting Trump. He's a ******* for going on Fox and talking him up. There's a reason he didn't do this while he played baseball with the same enthusiasm he is now. The fans.

I don't disagree with you. Unless a sports figure has actually done something significant for the good of the nation, I don't see why they're appropriate recipients of the nation's top civilian medal. And I don't think there's any doubt that Trump issued the medal because of Mo's loyalty to Trump.
 
Conspiracy theories always start out as conspiracy hypotheses. If an investigation fails to support a conspiracy hypothesis and instead finds only evidence that refutes it, then it is upgraded to a conspiracy theory.

I think they're all just "conspiracy theories," personally.
Because this not science, a theory about a conspiracy, a conspiracy hypothesis, and a conspiracy theory are different ways of describing the same thing.

Some conspiracy theories turn out to be true. Some end up disproven. Some are totally implausible form the get-go, and others are quite plausible.

You can call the real or at least plausible stuff "conspiratorial politics", too, though.

https://www.skeptiker.ch/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Political-paranoia-v.-political-realism.pdf

Political paranoia v. political realism: on distinguishing between bogus conspiracy theories and genuine conspiratorial politics

Scholars and intellectuals often fail to pay sufficient attention to the
historical and political importance of conspiratorial politics, that is, real-world covert and clandestine activities. This is primarily because they rarely make an effort to distinguish conceptually between such activities, which are a regular if not omnipresent feature of national and international politics, and bogus ‘conspiracy theories’, elaborate fantasies that purport to show that various sinister, powerful groups with evil intentions, operating behind the scenes, are secretly controlling the course of world events.
Bale’s purpose is to provide a clear analytical distinction between actual conspiratorial politics and ‘conspiracy theories’ in the pejorative sense of that term, and to suggest that research methods appropriate to investigating and analysing the former have long been available.

Very few notions nowadays generate as much intellectual resistance,
hostility and derision within academic circles as a belief in the historical
importance or efficacy of political conspiracies. Even when this belief is
expressed in a very cautious manner, limited to specific and restricted
contexts, supported by reliable evidence and hedged about with all sorts of
qualifications, apparently it still manages to transcend the boundaries of
acceptable discourse and to violate unspoken academic taboos. The idea that
particular groups of people meet together secretly or in private to plan various
courses of action, and that some of these plans actually exert a significant
influence on particular historical developments, is typically rejected out of
hand and assumed to be the figment of a paranoid imagination. The mere
mention of the word ‘conspiracy’ seems to set off an internal alarm bell that
causes scholars to close their minds in order to avoid cognitive dissonance and
possible unpleasantness, since the popular image of conspiracy both fundamentally challenges the conception most educated, sophisticated people have about how the world operates and reminds them of the horrible persecutions that absurd and unfounded conspiracy theories have precipitated or sustained in the past.

So strong is this prejudice among academics that, even when clear evidence of a plot is inadvertently discovered in the course of their own research, they frequently feel compelled, either out of a sense of embarrassment or a desire to defuse anticipated criticism, to preface their account of it by ostentatiously disclaiming a belief in conspiracies.4 They then often attempt to downplay the significance of the plotting they have uncovered

A number of complex cultural and historical factors contribute to this
reflexive and unwarranted reaction, but it is perhaps most often the direct
result of a simple failure to distinguish between ‘conspiracy theories’ in the
strict sense of the term, which are essentially elaborate fables even though
they may well be based on kernels of truth, and the activities of actual
clandestine and covert political groups, which are a common feature of
modern politics. For this and other reasons, serious research into genuine
conspiratorial networks has at worst been suppressed, as a rule discouraged,
and at best looked on with condescension by the academic community. An
entire dimension of political history and contemporary politics has thus been
consistently neglected.5

It is clear, then, that there are fundamental differences between ‘conspiracy theories’ and actual covert and clandestine politics, differences that
must be taken into account if one wishes to avoid serious errors of historical
interpretation. The problem is that most people, amateurs and professionals
alike, consistently fail to distinguish between them. On the one hand, the
overwhelming majority of the self-appointed ‘experts’ who concern themselves with alleged conspiracies are in fact ‘conspiracy theorists’ in the
negative sense outlined above. They seriously and passionately believe in
the existence of vast, preternaturally effective conspiracies that successfully
manipulate and control historical events behind the scenes, though
they typically disagree vehemently with one another about exactly who is
behind those conspiracies
. This vocal lunatic fringe tends to discourage
serious researchers from even investigating such matters, in part because the
latter do not wish, understandably, to be tarred by the same soiled brush. In
the process, however, most have unfortunately failed to heed the important
qualification that Richard Hofstadter made in his analysis of the ‘paranoid
style’ of political thinking, namely, that real conspiracies do exist, even
though they do not conform to the elaborate and often bizarre scenarios
concocted by conspiracy theorists
.18 How, indeed, could it be otherwise in a world full of intelligence agencies, national security bureaucracies, clandestine revolutionary organizations, economic pressure groups, criminal cartels, secret societies with hidden agendas, deceptive religious cults, political front groups and the like?
 
The claim that the directionality pointed to Iran immediately raised a red flag in my mind, because drones are by nature precisely controllable. If Iran were to be the culprit, might they choose to hit such that the direction did not so clearly point back to them, like the accusing finger of God? Or if Saudi skullduggery were afoot, might they desire to suggest this directionality?

I had the same thought/red flag. In context of Trump and Bolton's resignation, and Trump floating the idea of getting back on better terms with Iran, I think Pompeo seemed awfully eager to find a reason to blame and demonize Iran over it. ("Iran attacked the world's oil supply.")
 
Mr. Class is at it again.

The diarrhea of the mouth symptoms are showing, again.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/17/politics/donald-trump-cokie-roberts-death/index.html

"I never met her. She never treated me nicely. But I would like to wish her family well. She was a professional, and I respect professionals," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One en route to California. "I respect you guys a lot, you people a lot. She was a real professional. Never treated me well, but I certainly respect her as a professional."

He never met Cokie but is criticizing her for never treating him nicely!!! He's never met me, either. Am I subject to the same implicit criticism? The statement should have been a simple "I never met her and didn't know her, really, but I would like to wish her family well. Thoughts and Prayers blah blah...." He has to interject the bit about her not being nice to him, though. That's the Trump litmus test. Every news story or development has to be filtered through "How does this effect Trump?"
 
Don't worry. It's been confirmed that "locked and loaded" has nothing to do with military action.





"Locked and loaded" means that we have an independent energy supply. Somehow.
They're really getting desperate in their efforts to explain his insane proclamations.

Well, other than that, there's always the Putin angle.

Putin spokesman says to back down, White House backs down immediately.

Speaking of Russia, though...

Explosion at Russian Virology Research Center In Siberia Near Kazakhstyan. Not to Worry Says Russia.

Umm, hopefully, nothing especially bad was unleashed.
 
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