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Merged Drone attack on Saudi Oil Production

Well, Israel does have a lot of expertise in using 'kamikaze' drones in exactly this manner, notably against anti-aircraft and radar stations in Syria and elsewhere.

Still, this is too much n-dimensional chess to be a credible plot by Netanyahu.
 
Sarcasm noted - but I would not be too surprised to find out that SA exaggerated the scope of the damage, to the point of producing doctored photos, shutting down undamaged faculties, stopping exports of products that have already been refined, maybe even doing a bit of damage themselves to outdated or non-functional equipment, that sort of thing.

It may not be a false flag, but the Saudis would not want to let a good crisis go to waste. With truth and honesty being vanishingly low priorities for them, they have a lot to work with right now.



Looking that the top image in this BBC Article, it looks like the damage was pretty precise, much more so than just hitting an airfield. These hits seem to have been down to a few meters in precision.

Saudi oil attacks: US says intelligence shows Iran involved

I confess I was only being about half-sarcastic.
 
Sarcasm noted - but I would not be too surprised to find out that SA exaggerated the scope of the damage, to the point of producing doctored photos,

Unless SA is somehow hacking into the US's own surveillance satellites and altering the images before they're transmitted I don't see how this is possible.
 
Sarcasm noted - but I would not be too surprised to find out that SA exaggerated the scope of the damage, to the point of producing doctored photos, shutting down undamaged faculties, stopping exports of products that have already been refined, maybe even doing a bit of damage themselves to outdated or non-functional equipment, that sort of thing.

It may not be a false flag, but the Saudis would not want to let a good crisis go to waste. With truth and honesty being vanishingly low priorities for them, they have a lot to work with right now.



Looking that the top image in this BBC Article, it looks like the damage was pretty precise, much more so than just hitting an airfield. These hits seem to have been down to a few meters in precision.

Saudi oil attacks: US says intelligence shows Iran involved

A lot of massive facilities like oil fields now have a local differential GPSWP set up to assist in operations/repairs. If the attackers had access to that type of signal, sub-meter accuracy would be trivial.
 
Radio just said Iran wasn't just involved but it was launched from Iran.
 
That's a very bold claim and I'd like to see the evidence of that, or at least have it described.
 
Looking that the top image in this BBC Article, it looks like the damage was pretty precise, much more so than just hitting an airfield. These hits seem to have been down to a few meters in precision.

Saudi oil attacks: US says intelligence shows Iran involved


According to this you can get three metres accuracy with civilian GPS these days.


It's hard to get the scale of those targets but I assume they are quite big so civilian GPS may be capable of that accuracy. It does say height is less accurate, and the holes in those domes look to be all at very similar heights.



The only other technology that could get very high accuracy that I know of would be laser guided smart bombs or military grade GPS.


However you then enter conspiracy theory territory there becase



* Iran doesn't have access to military grade GPS.
* I don't know that it would have access to laser guided smart bombs.


Irans premium drone, according to Wiki, does have advanced weapon capabilities including smart bombs. It has been using these in Syria. The qualifier is that it doesn't have many of them and they are only effective in smart mode at relatively short range.


Given that Iran regularly makes misleading claims about their UAVs, and that Shahed-129 made no known drone strikes for its first four years of flight, there were long doubts about the Shahed-129's claim to be a legitimate strike UAV. Since 2016, there is a general consensus that it is in fact a legimitate UCAV capable of lethal force.[19]
Though the Shahed 129 airframe is likely capable of its claimed 1700 km combat range, it relies on a ground control station, which Iranian state media say is limited to a 200 km datalink.[13] Independent analysts are more positive, saying the effective range is likely 300–400 km, but are clear that the drone's reliance on a ground station severely circumscribes its effective range.[3] Other experts say the Shahed 129's datalink could likely not reach even 200 km.[18] The drone can use an autopilot system, similar to that used on the Karrar UAV, to follow predefined way-points beyond its control station's communication range.[20] The Shahed is claimed to have a 24-hour endurance, which is considered plausible but has not been independently verified
 
According to this you can get three metres accuracy with civilian GPS these days.


It's hard to get the scale of those targets but I assume they are quite big so civilian GPS may be capable of that accuracy. It does say height is less accurate, and the holes in those domes look to be all at very similar heights.



The only other technology that could get very high accuracy that I know of would be laser guided smart bombs or military grade GPS.


However you then enter conspiracy theory territory there becase



* Iran doesn't have access to military grade GPS.
* I don't know that it would have access to laser guided smart bombs.


Irans premium drone, according to Wiki, does have advanced weapon capabilities including smart bombs. It has been using these in Syria. The qualifier is that it doesn't have many of them and they are only effective in smart mode at relatively short range.

You can get sub-centimeter GPS accuracy with civilian GPS - but not in real time. It requires multiple readings from a fixed point and post-processing. I am not sure how good real-time processing is when an object is moving some hundreds of miles per hour.

Laser guided smart bombs need something in visual range to point the laser. They would need troops on the ground or another drone to point the laser.

I was kind of wondering if the drones were Yemeni built (based on Iranian designs, themselves based on Chinese designs) but with Iranian avionics. Easier to get some relatively small electronics in than to get in a big missile. That would also allow Iran to give the Saudis a bloody nose while still maintaining plausible deniability.

The Yemenis/Houti have ample reason to do this. They seem to be winning the war despite the best efforts of the Kingdom. They may hope a few kicks will give the Kingdom enough motivation to finally back off from an unwinnable war.
 
Yemeni forces hit Saudi oilfields with drone attacks.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-49703143

I've wondered for some time why more rebel forces don't use this kind of technology - freely available, easy to set up, high chance of escape for the pilots, and we can add highly effective. Why fly a 737 into a building when you can fly a drone carrying 20 lbs of C4?

Of the top of my head because:

  1. Because flying a drone over 700 km from your base requires far more technology than just a box cutter and a fake bomb.
  2. Because it's easier to conceal a 737 full of passangers by claiming a medical emergency on board than a drone that has no business being there in the first place.
  3. Because 737s routinely fly all over the world and a stock of sutiable planes already exists, you need to build the drones from scratch.
  4. Because a single drone with 20 lbs of C4 won't do. This attack was carried out by 10-20 vechiles (drones or ballistic missiles), each filled with far more than just 20 lb of C4. I figure 200 lb each, probably more. Setting refineries ablaze is more difficult than you might think.
  5. Because a single 737 would do the above all by itself.

I'm not saying this wasn't carried out by drones, but attacks such as these using drones are more sophisticated than you might think. Drones with the capabilities required to carry out these attacks would not be something anyone can get their hands on, certainly not "small, cheap, off the shelf machines" as commonly touted.

Given the murdering Saudi's use of drones in Yemen, I'd say this is fair tactics and well aimed, hitting the despots where they hurt most: the pocket.

There's no love lost between me and the Saudis, but I'd still like to note this was a deliberate attack on a civilian target. Those are usually frowned upon.

McHrozni
 
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According to this you can get three metres accuracy with civilian GPS these days.

It's hard to get the scale of those targets but I assume they are quite big so civilian GPS may be capable of that accuracy. It does say height is less accurate, and the holes in those domes look to be all at very similar heights.

The only other technology that could get very high accuracy that I know of would be laser guided smart bombs or military grade GPS.

I'll just leave this here.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GLONASS

Decimeter accuracy was possible with GPS some 30 years ago. Russians are behind, but not that far behind - and you wouldn't necessarily need decimeter accuracy for this attack.

McHrozni
 
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On Saturday, Saudi Oil fields and oil processing facilities were attacked by 10 drones, cut the Kingdom's oil production in half.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2019/09/14/a-recipe-for-100-oil/
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...abia-drone-attack-is-a-strike-at-oil-s-future

The origin seems to be Jemen, but Pompeo is already certain that the real culprit is Iran.

Do you remember some five years back, when the talented metalworkers in rebel ranks in eastern Ukraine were able to take two old cars, a tractor undercarriage, a discarded hospital bed and parts of a Ferris wheel and combine them to build T-72M3 tanks indistinguishable from the ones fielded by Russia (and only Russia)?

Same thing.

McHrozni
 
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Do you remember some five years back, when the talented metalworkers in rebel ranks in eastern Ukraine were able to take two old cars, a tractor undercarriage, a discarded hospital bed and parts of a Ferris wheel and combine them to build T-72M3 tanks indistinguishable from the ones fielded by Russia (and only Russia)?

Same thing.

McHrozni


I don't think so.
 
You can get sub-centimeter GPS accuracy with civilian GPS - but not in real time. It requires multiple readings from a fixed point and post-processing. I am not sure how good real-time processing is when an object is moving some hundreds of miles per hour.

Laser guided smart bombs need something in visual range to point the laser. They would need troops on the ground or another drone to point the laser.

I was kind of wondering if the drones were Yemeni built (based on Iranian designs, themselves based on Chinese designs) but with Iranian avionics. Easier to get some relatively small electronics in than to get in a big missile. That would also allow Iran to give the Saudis a bloody nose while still maintaining plausible deniability.

The Yemenis/Houti have ample reason to do this. They seem to be winning the war despite the best efforts of the Kingdom. They may hope a few kicks will give the Kingdom enough motivation to finally back off from an unwinnable war.


The Shahed 129 uses the off the shelf https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rotax_914 Rotax 914 for propulsion.


It also can be remotely controlled, which would presume the use of real time video. The 129 can carry guided bombs with a range of 6km. The UAV remote control is limited to about 300km would just make it to Iranian soil. But according to Wiki they can only build three 129 a year so they can't have many of them.


The impact points on the four large, round targets all seem to imply the weapons were fired from about the same starting point. And, by coincidence, the 129 can carry four guided bombs.


So, a simple one way UAV is probably out of the question. The Shahed could do it but the precision seems to be more than it would be capable of.
 
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That's not what I'm reading in that link.

Russians claim the civilian GLOSNASS to be equal to the GPS, actual capability is classified. I sincierly doubt their technology is significantly worse than US techology was 30 years ago - and even if it were, accuracy of 1 meter (ten times worse than what US had 30 years ago) is enough for precision required here.

McHrozni
 

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