Cont: Brexit: Now What? Magic 8 Ball's up

[Darat]

Would you be interested in a signature bet on turnout?

I don't bet.

 

[jimbob]

This is it. I think there are massive problems with every party right now, but when the time comes I'm going to look at the polls in my constituency and vote for whoever is most likely to beat the Tory candidate.

I'm in a Labour/Tory Marginal (historically probably more Tory than Labour as it was Tory through the 70's until 1997, then Tory 2010 and 2015. Now Labour again, with the first constituency MP that actually seems to do work and engage with her constituency. Luckily, she's now pro-Remain, partly because she thinks our constituency has moved from Leave to Remain.

 

[jimbob]

Hmmm...didn't he also take a risk in assuming that Corbyn wouldn't agree to the general election? If they had said yes, then the Tories would then have to worry about the Brexit Party peeling off votes from them.

I'm pretty sure Johnson Cummings assumed Corbyn would agree to an election. Was counting on it, in fact, and is now in serious trouble because Corbyn refused to walk into his trap.

But he'd have been in a position to time the election for post-Brexit, and I strongly suspect that that is exactly what he would have done.

Interesting times. Too interesting.

No he needed the election *before* October 31st. So he could claim to still be on track to deliver Brexit, and be the True Candidate Of Brexit whilst not having the ********* of no-deal actually biting. An election when the newspapers are reporting the chaos of yellowhammer, and people are suddenly confronted with the consequences of no deal would lead to proponents getting punished in the ballot box.

In other words, I agree with Pixel42

 

[Information Analyst]

I'm pretty sure Johnson Cummings assumed Corbyn would agree to an election. Was counting on it, in fact, and is now in serious trouble because Corbyn refused to walk into his trap.

I think the bottom line is that Cummings is seriously deluded by his own warped view of the world, and he seeks to change reality to fit his views, rather than change his views to fit reality

 

[GlennB]

I'm reading that Johnson has likened himself to The Incredible Hulk - the angrier he gets the stronger he gets.

Christ on a pogo stick, how bad can this get?

 

[a_unique_person]

Never go full retard, Boris.

 

[angrysoba]

I think the bottom line is that Cummings is seriously deluded by his own warped view of the world, and he seeks to change reality to fit his views, rather than change his views to fit reality

Maybe Cummings isn’t nearly as smart as his reputation that’s been bolstered by his portrayal by Engelbert Humperdinck and been bought into by much of the media.

 

[Vixen]

That opinion polls give the Tories a lead, will further convince Boris he can defy Parliament and the courts and leave. He has the people's support.

He is in a strong position with that lead, as he can point to him being the democrat and Parliament and the courts being anti-democracy and the will of the people.

And like his beloved Winston Churchill, he will fail in an election.

AFAICS the opinion polls seem to be the tabloids like DM cherry picking what suits their agenda as headline news: ignoring any positive findings for Labour or Corbyn and concentrating on the bits they like.

I wouldn't believe a word they say when it comes to opinion polls.

If it's their own poll, well it would swing to 'Leave and Leave Now' as that is what their self-selected readers will rally around.

 

[Vixen]

I don't have a high opinion of Cameron, to say the least, but when he says that Johnson is a liar who is wholly using Brexit to further his own career, I think we can probably assume a certain degree of truth. Feels to me more like it falls into the "well, duh" category than the "this seems unlikely" one.

It is said the first wife hates the second wife but is friends with the third.

It seems Cameron has broken the rule.

 

[Vixen]

What I mean is he wouldn't have a court order at the point he sent the second letter. He wouldn't be "in court" as he wouldn't be sued for it before he sent it.

But why would the court order him not to send the second letter and hold him in contempt? That is what I'm asking for the applicable case law.

Look. Imagine you get a parking ticket. You appeal. The parking fine people say, no, pay up.

So, you pay up but then immediately recall your payment.

Does that mean you have fulfilled your obligation?

Think about it, Bob. Does that mean those nice parking fine people have no legal redress. Well, you'll have a shock when they send you notice the penalty has now increased several fold and will carrying on doing so until you do as you are told.

Be a clever Dick by all means.

 

[Vixen]

Maybe he is going to stun everyone with GATT 24.

Maybe his chest will expand, turn green and he'll burst out of his grey suit.

 

[Vixen]

I would suspect that the youth vote is disproportionately represented (ie lower) in those polls. I can see there being a very strong push by the youngsters (under 22) at a grassroots level to get their fellow youngsters to vote, and those votes will be primarily split between Labour, LibDems and Green party.

Yep. People too young to vote in 2016 are probably now chomping at the bit to have their say.

 

[Vixen]

It is possible we will see the so called "Churchill" effect, if the UK leaves on the 31st October, in any following election.

The Brexit party will be redundant, and the Liberals have prematurely cornered themselves as a remain party. The electorate being sick of Brexit will not want to return to the subject but rather focus on the issues facing the country.

The focus on Brexit voters has often included immigration as being the main reason, but I remember hearing and reading that many in the North of England and Wales voted to leave as a big middle finger protest vote to a perceived London centric UK.

I do not think that the political antics over the last few years in London will have impressed these voters much.

In addition, Boris has recently promised all this money for extra police, NHS etc, out of nowhere, and it will be easy for others to propose a manifesto pledging extra spending based on these figures. Again, premature promises from BoJo who probably thought an early election was in the bag.

In the future hustings, debates and political broadcasts, the Tories would not be able to diss completely any proposed increased spending plans based on these figures by other parties leading up to election, since they will be admitting to the lies of their leader.

If anti London centric feelings remain strong and the Brexit Party and Liberals fall out of contention, Labour, even with Corbyn, might do surprisingly well. If Labour fights on poverty, social divides, North South differences then they could do much better than expected.

Problem is, there is a strong anti-London 'men in suits' attitude in Scotland, yet they voted overwhelmingly to stay and rarely vote Conservative.

 

[Vixen]

Never go full retard, Boris.

I love Ben Stiller. So funny. I never tire of watching the Meet the Fokkers films (or Bridget Jones / Hugh Grant)

 

[The Don]

Boris Johnson is still persevering with the fiction that there's a deal to be had with the EU that's markedly different to Theresa May's deal. The EU hasn't utterly discounted it, but has repeatedly said that the UK hasn't actually come up with any proposals.

Reports suggest Mr Johnson and his team are considering a plan to keep Northern Ireland more closely aligned to the EU after Brexit, which they hoped would remove the need for the Irish backstop.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49709430

This idea has been floating around for some time but reports are that the proposed scope of the agreement are far to narrow and that the requirements of the Good Friday Agreement have not been properly addressed.

The EU aren't impressed:

However, EU officials who have been involved in the Brexit talks say they have not seen the progress around the negotiating table that the UK is talking about, said the BBC's Brussels reporter Adam Fleming.

 

[GlennB]

Boris Johnson is still persevering with the fiction that there's a deal to be had with the EU that's markedly different to Theresa May's deal. The EU hasn't utterly discounted it, but has repeatedly said that the UK hasn't actually come up with any proposals.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49709430

This idea has been floating around for some time but reports are that the proposed scope of the agreement are far to narrow and that the requirements of the Good Friday Agreement have not been properly addressed.

The EU aren't impressed:

Everything being said by UK Gov. lately smacks of 'doing a ceptimus' and getting ready to blame the EU for whatever outcome. Truly depressing.

 

[The Don]

Everything being said by UK Gov. lately smacks of 'doing a ceptimus' and getting ready to blame the EU for whatever outcome. Truly depressing.

Yup.

There has been literally no effort to do anything else. This leads me to think that a no-deal Brexit and the associated turmoil is what the architects of Brexit had in mind all along and that the last three and a bit years have just been an exercise in trying to move the blame onto everyone else.

After all, if the architects of Brexit wanted anything other than a no-deal, they could have had the ERG vote in favour of Theresa May's deal and then moved the negotiations so as to get the kind of post-Brexit deal they thought ideal.

The real shame is that enough of the UK electorate have now been convinced that

• Brexit is desirable/inevitable regardless of the type of Brexit
• A no-deal Brexit would at worst be a slight inconvenience
• The Labour Party are dangerous and must not form a government at all costs
• Blame for a no-deal belongs somewhere else than squarely on the shoulders of the Brexiteers

 

[Vixen]

Everything being said by UK Gov. lately smacks of 'doing a ceptimus' and getting ready to blame the EU for whatever outcome. Truly depressing.

I should think the EU are sick of the antics of Farage, Widdecombe, May and de Pfeffel.

They have behaved little better than hooligans. The average EU MEP is likely shocked at the lack of respect and sheer contempt exhibited by these self-important n'er-do-wells with an inflated sense of the own innate superiority.

 

[jimbob]

I'm reading that Johnson has likened himself to The Incredible Hulk - the angrier he gets the stronger he gets.

Christ on a pogo stick, how bad can this get?

Even Chris Morris would have balked at having Mark Ruffalo tweeting to the PM about how the Hulk always failed on his own .

ETA

Boris Johnson forgets that the Hulk only fights for the good of the whole. Mad and strong can also be dense and destructive. The Hulk works best when he is in unison with a team, and is a disaster when he is alone. Plus...he’s always got Dr. Banner with science and reason.

 

[gypsyjackson]

I'm reading that Johnson has likened himself to The Incredible Hulk - the angrier he gets the stronger he gets.

Christ on a pogo stick, how bad can this get?

The former Chief Economist at the NFU posted this on FB earlier:

Really? So here’s what I remember from the tv series of the Incredible Hulk.
1. It all spiralled from of an unsupervised experiment, triggered by self-pity as the protagonist sought to find deeper meaning in something that was just accidental
2. Rather than revel in the hulk, he was trying to find a cure, as if he’d rather it hadn’t happened
3. He couldn’t settle, living a nomadic lifestyle, always moving on at the end of the episode, unable to share his secret with the locals and seemingly haunted by the potential threat that his actions might damage people.
4. Despite being a fantastic scientist, rarely did David banner get to practice his expertise and focus on what he was good at. Instead, a series of short term jobs just to survive.

All in all, a fairly depressing story arc for a tv series. Really can’t see why the PM thought the hulk reference was appropriate.