Cont: Brexit: Now What? Magic 8 Ball's up

[Samson]

Unless Johnson and his ilk are hit by a meteorite or acquire altruism, empathy and rationality (and I know which is by far the more likely) we will leave 31st October with no deal.

If I had a hat I'd really like to be eating it come 1st November when we are still part of the EU, sadly I won't be enjoying that delicacy.

Make some money.

Another UK EU Referendum before end 2020
Brexit Specials
3.00
UK to REVOKE Article 50 in 2019
Brexit Specials
3.75
UK to leave EU with no Brexit Deal before Nov 1st
Brexit Specials
4.00
Another UK EU Referendum before end 2019
Brexit Specials
17.00

 

[ponderingturtle]

I assure you I am not at all sanguine about the fact that so many people can't be bothered to fulfil their most basic responsibilities as citizens of a democracy. I'm saying I blame them, not the people who take advantage of their wilful ignorance, for the consequences.

And the parties behind the vote have a legal obligation not to blatantly lie, but as the vote was not binding it doesn't actually mean anything anyway. If it was binding its decision would have been thrown out.

 

[P.J. Denyer]

When that information is freely available to anyone who bothers to look for it there is really no excuse for believing obvious lies rather than do so.

No-one who isn't already prejudiced against "foreigners" would believe the bendy bananas BS, or any of the other nonsense Leave voters swallowed whole without making the slightest effort to check was actually true.

You're applying a higher standard to the general public than I think is realistic, most people aren't interested enough to fact check against multiple sources, many more will feel that if a Member of Parliament and a National Newspaper tell them the same thing that is multiple sources, after all "the papers couldn't print it if it wasn't true". I think you're seriously underestimating the effect that literally decades of lies can have, or how cynically the fears of people who felt left behind, or had been hurt by Conservative policies were exploited. Yes there is a rump of hardcore racisits, but overall I don't believe the British public are inherently worse (or better) than anyone else, but I do believe that wholesale unopposed manipulation on this scale works.

 

[P.J. Denyer]

I'm really sorry to hear that.

The "no possible downside, only a significant upside" Brexiteers need to hear this kind of thing (not that they'd likely care) to understand the damage that their little "adventure" is already causing.

Yeah, after a heavy session last week a friend of mine (company secretary for a large multinational, pretty secure) started on about how we were going to have to tighten our belts and make some sacrifices to make Brexit a success for the greater good. I don't think he'll ever say anything so stupid around me again....

 

[a_unique_person]

Very surprised if this isn't rejected by the Supreme Court, prorogation is a matter for parliament not the judiciary.

Court rules prorogation illegal.

Not enough popcorn.

 

[P.J. Denyer]

And the parties behind the vote have a legal obligation not to blatantly lie, but as the vote was not binding it doesn't actually mean anything anyway. If it was binding its decision would have been thrown out.

I find it profoundly depressing that 'not being allowed to tell blatant lies without consequence' is considered too high a bar when it comes to our democracy.

 

[The Don]

They did just that. The Parliament legislated the PM needs to ask for another extension until the end of January, if EU sets a different date (or asks for preconditions) Parliament has two (sitting?) days to either accept or reject it. The bill got royal assent just before prorogation.

Therefore if EU agrees to the extension, or at least doesn't reject it outright, UK looks to be Bremaining for a little longer still.

It's not really what one might want, but if EU asks for "either referendum or another general election", Parliament intends to go for the latter anyway, so that should be fine.

McHrozni

No deal is still the default outcome.

All that Parliament has done is to pass a bill to compel the Prime Minister to ask for an extension unless a deal is agreed by 19 October.

If the Prime Minister breaks the law and fails to ask for a deal, he may be sent to prison but there's still nothing on the statute books to prevent a no-deal on 31 October. Parliament may be able to pass something in the remaining days but there's no guarantee that they will be able to agree on something.

If the EU doesn't agree to an extension then the UK crashes out with a no deal.

If the EU agrees to an extension other than 3 months and/or attaches conditions then Parliament would have to agree to this - and there's no guarantee that the fragile no no-deal coalition would stand up to a 2 year extension or a demand for a second referendum or whatever the EU requires.

tl;dr News Youtube about 8 ways Boris Johnson can still get his no-deal

 

[McHrozni]

No deal is still the default outcome.

Yes, but something will happen first with the express intent of preventing a no deal outcome.

If the Prime Minister breaks the law and fails to ask for a deal, he may be sent to prison but there's still nothing on the statute books to prevent a no-deal on 31 October. Parliament may be able to pass something in the remaining days but there's no guarantee that they will be able to agree on something.

If the EU doesn't agree to an extension then the UK crashes out with a no deal.

If the EU agrees to an extension other than 3 months and/or attaches conditions then Parliament would have to agree to this - and there's no guarantee that the fragile no no-deal coalition would stand up to a 2 year extension or a demand for a second referendum or whatever the EU requires.

Again, if Parliament doesn't capitalize on the success.

tl;dr News Youtube about 8 ways Boris Johnson can still get his no-deal

That channel rocks
If they were only a little less keen on Bercow

McHrozni

 

[erwinl]

Unless Johnson and his ilk are hit by a meteorite or acquire altruism, empathy and rationality (and I know which is by far the more likely) we will leave 31st October with no deal.

If I had a hat I'd really like to be eating it come 1st November when we are still part of the EU, sadly I won't be enjoying that delicacy.

That's my expectation as well.

But Samson was so adamant that a No Deal was impossible, I wanted to know his thoughts about it.

 

[Ethan Thane Athen]

You're applying a higher standard to the general public than I think is realistic, most people aren't interested enough to fact check against multiple sources, many more will feel that if a Member of Parliament and a National Newspaper tell them the same thing that is multiple sources, after all "the papers couldn't print it if it wasn't true". I think you're seriously underestimating the effect that literally decades of lies can have, or how cynically the fears of people who felt left behind, or had been hurt by Conservative policies were exploited. Yes there is a rump of hardcore racisits, but overall I don't believe the British public are inherently worse (or better) than anyone else, but I do believe that wholesale unopposed manipulation on this scale works.

And it doesn't help that the general public are, to a depressing extent, thick as ****...

 

[Pixel42]

Yeah, after a heavy session last week a friend of mine (company secretary for a large multinational, pretty secure) started on about how we were going to have to tighten our belts and make some sacrifices to make Brexit a success for the greater good. I don't think he'll ever say anything so stupid around me again....

My (leave voting, 81 year old) sister was telling me last week how we coped with rationing after the war, we can cope with it again etc. I said "the difference is that this will be entirely self inflicted". To my surprise this actually seemed to give her pause, and she quickly changed the subject.

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1171721092500791296

The Scottish court has found unanimously that the Prime Minister misled the Queen

In effect, the court has held that Boris Johnson lied to the Queen so as to obtain prorogation

Wow

Just, wow

Not seen a court decision like this in thirty years of constitutional geekery

More in the rest of that thread.

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1171733869537693696

Given the statements from number 10 about not complying with the Scottish court decision, Lord Chancellor
@RobertBuckland
has to consider his position carefully

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1171743709148454913

Our judges are renowned around the world for their excellence and impartiality and I have total confidence in their independence in every case.

 

[wobs]

Thought this might have been brought up by now:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...top-boris-johnson-eu-phil-hogan-a9099461.html

The British and Irish governments are both eyeing a return to the EU’s original Brexit backstop plan, rejected by Theresa May, as a way of breaking the deadlock, reports suggest.

The so-called “Northern Ireland-only” backstop was rejected by the former prime minister during talks because it put a customs and regulatory border down the Irish sea – a move strongly opposed by the DUP and many Tories.

 

[KDLarsen]

I find it profoundly depressing that 'not being allowed to tell blatant lies without consequence' is considered too high a bar when it comes to our democracy.

Indeed. I can't remember where I read it (probably in a column in The Guardian), but someone found it thoroughly annoying that the UK electoral system basically relies on a gentleman's agreement not to break the rules.

Cummings came in, saw the flaw in that, and exploited it for maximum disruption. And it's clear he's not finished yet, as we've just seen with the 'rogue' prorogation, as well as the leaks that Johnson was planning to ignore the Benn Bill. He's been noted as having a serious grudge against not only the EU, but also the UK political system as a whole, ie. parliament and the civil service.

And, as the column also pointed out, it's remarkable that someone like Cummings, who has been found in contempt of parliament, is now so close to the center of power. Even more remarkable is the fact that he's still avoiding having to answer to parliament.

 

[lomiller]

For once I agree with Bob. If people choose not to take the time to properly inform themselves about the issues and people they are voting for, and simply swallow the most blatant and transparent of lies simply because they fit with their prejudices, then they have only themselves to blame when they are manipulated into voting against their own interests.

Voters having psychic powers to know which side is lying can’t be a requirement for democracy to function. “This isn’t what we thought, we need to change course” is an essential part of democracy.

I see the attraction to the idea that if you fell for such an obvious lie, you deserved what you got, but everyone makes mistakes from time to time, it’s important to allow them the opportunity to correct the. Also, why make everyone suffer for the mistakes of some. Plus, few remainers thought that a no-deal Brexit was something the government would actually aim for, so it’s not like they got it right either.

 

[Vixen]

Interesting times. The decision says the prorogation is null so presumably that means Parliament was in effect never prorogued and should be sitting today not withstanding an appeal later.

How this plays out practically I have no idea.

They'll have to dig Black Rod out of her bath chair. A darned nuisance if she's sent all her gear off to the dry cleaners ready for storage until October

What does she do the rest of the year?

 

[Tolls]

Cummings came in, saw the flaw in that, and exploited it for maximum disruption.

It predates Cummings.
This is just more flagrant.

It's a continuation of Thatcher's dismantling of the norms of British politics at the end of the 70s. Not an inevitable outcome, but nothing was put into place to stop it.

 

[Andy_Ross]

An exciting week for Boris

Defeated in 6 votes.
Lost 2 members of his cabinet team and his brother.
Relinquished control of the order paper.
Threatened with the prospect of prison if he ignores legislation.
Lost the case for porogation.
Found to have lied to the Queen.

 

[The Don]

An exciting week for Boris

Defeated in 6 votes.
Lost 2 members of his cabinet team and his brother.
Relinquished control of the order paper.
Threatened with the prospect of prison if he ignores legislation.
Lost the case for porogation.
Found to have lied to the Queen.

He also managed to:

• Have a MP defect to the LibDems in the middle of a debate
• Reduce his narrow operating majority into a significant deficit by purging his own party

 

[Andy_Ross]

That was last week