Cont: Brexit: Now What? Magic 8 Ball's up

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The Don said:
If you've been expelled from the party, you cannot stand for election as a member of the party.

Local constituency members get to choose between candidates but Westminster has the power to ensure that certain people aren't able to be considered as candidates.
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It does change the dynamic of the deselection, however.

Deselecting a member can be taken as an insult by that member.

When the local party reinstates them, they are essentially saying "if you refuse to consider them, now you're insulting all of us."
 
Reading between the lines, Mike Pence seems to have been having a go at Leo Varadkar to back down over Brexit (remember when Obama's mention that the UK may be at the back of the trade deal queue was unacceptable meddling, that seems decades ago). Leo Varadkar is having none of it:

The Republic of Ireland must stand its ground on the Brexit deal amid a "critical" period in political history, Leo Varadkar has said.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has confirmed he will visit Dublin on Monday to meet the taoiseach.

Mr Johnson is facing a showdown in Westminster as MPs aim to stop a no-deal Brexit.

Mr Varadkar made his remarks during a press conference with US Vice President Mike Pence, who is on a two-day visit.

But Mr Pence urged Ireland and the EU to "negotiate in good faith" with the UK.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-49563469
 
I don’t see Brexit halting food imports unless the UK does something truly stupid, like trying to nationalize EU owned assets. IMO, the most likely scenario is simply an increase in food prices, not shortages.
This is still bad since you now have a stagflation, the combination of a shrinking economy and high inflation. My guess is the BoE goes after inflation first, which has the effect of exacerbating the economic downturn.

The Don said:
Doesn't matter how cross they are, if it's a lack of capacity on the UK side to cope with the volume of customs and bio-security inspections post-Brexit, there's little they can do about it.
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You are assuming that the UK will actually bother to enforce it’s borders post Brexit, my guess is that it probably won’t. Obviously, it will be the international community will eventually force the UK to get some control, but I don’t expect much on Nov 1.
 
lomiller said:
I don’t see Brexit halting food imports unless the UK does something truly stupid, like trying to nationalize EU owned assets. IMO, the most likely scenario is simply an increase in food prices, not shortages.
This is still bad since you now have a stagflation, the combination of a shrinking economy and high inflatio
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The shortages would be due to insufficient ability to move through customs and massive back ups at the border not anything like blockade. And add to that the increase in tariffs under WTO rules and you could have serious shortages and significantly more expensive food.
 
lomiller said:
I don’t see Brexit halting food imports unless the UK does something truly stupid, like trying to nationalize EU owned assets. IMO, the most likely scenario is simply an increase in food prices, not shortages.
This is still bad since you now have a stagflation, the combination of a shrinking economy and high inflation. My guess is the BoE goes after inflation first, which has the effect of exacerbating the economic downturn.
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I'm not sure anyone is suggesting that they will halt, but most industry experts are expecting significant problems with perishable goods.

lomiller said:
You are assuming that the UK will actually bother to enforce it’s borders post Brexit, my guess is that it probably won’t. Obviously, it will be the international community will eventually force the UK to get some control, but I don’t expect much on Nov 1.
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Ah, taking back control of our borders by conspicuously abdicating control over our borders......:rolleyes:
 
Arcade22 said:
The point was that if the economic interests of German car makers, and all other car makers in the EU, weren't important enough to override the general interest in the integrity of the EU, then there's no way the concerns of Spanish farmers, and all the other farmers throughout the EU, were going to matter. Yes it would be sad if the farmers were going to suffer economically because the UK left the EU without a trade agreement, but all the governments of the remaining member states have agreed there are more important things at stake here, especially since the impact will be far less severe on other member states.

As has been pointed out since before the referendum was held: The EU can't be seen to be playing favorites here by prioritizing interests of certain national economic sectors over the interests of all individual member states.
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We haven't left yet. The argument was always that EU companies would force the EU to provide a good trade deal once we've left.

Remember, the EU refuses to discuss the future trade deal until after we've left. If remoaner MPs get their way, we'll never get the chance to find out whether or not the German car companies and other European manufacturers and farmers will attempt to influence the EU to provide a good trade deal.
 
ceptimus said:
We haven't left yet. The argument was always that EU companies would force the EU to provide a good trade deal once we've left.
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No it wasn't, it was that they would intercede to ensure that the UK would have its demands met prior to Brexit.
 
ceptimus said:
We haven't left yet. The argument was always that EU companies would force the EU to provide a good trade deal once we've left.

Remember, the EU refuses to discuss the future trade deal until after we've left. If remoaner MPs get their way, we'll never get the chance to find out whether or not the German car companies and other European manufacturers and farmers will attempt to influence the EU to provide a good trade deal.
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The brexiteer argument in 2016 was that German car makers would not let us leave without a deal. We would retain free trade at all times.

See voteleavetakecontrol.org.

Were they lying then or are you lying now?
 
Lothian said:
Johnston has ordered UK reps to stop attending EU meetings. It would be funny if he ordered us to veto but our rep was lying on a beach in Florida so couldn't vote :)
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If said rep has more brains than a Brexiteer, he'll not be anywhere near Florida for a fortnight or two. :) :p
 
Lothian said:
The brexiteer argument in 2016 was that German car makers would not let us leave without a deal. We would retain free trade at all times.

See voteleavetakecontrol.org.

Were they lying then or are you lying now?
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tbh it could be both ;)
 
The Don said:
No it wasn't, it was that they would intercede to ensure that the UK would have its demands met prior to Brexit.
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Rendered impossible by the EU's refusal to discuss a trade deal until after we've left. A very clever negotiating tactic by the EU.

David Davis tried to oppose that EU negotiating policy, but was overruled by Mrs May.
 
ceptimus said:
Rendered impossible by the EU's refusal to discuss a trade deal until after we've left.
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Not at all, for example they could have insisted that EU requirements that resulted in the backstop could have been dropped.

Face it, the UK is less important than Brexiteers assumed.
 
The Don said:
Ah, taking back control of our borders by conspicuously abdicating control over our borders......:rolleyes:
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It’s clear at this point, most Brexiters have zero idea what being outside the EU actually entails, so it’s not exactly news that they used borders as a buzzword without knowing how they work.
 
SezMe said:
What is the Benn bill? How does it affect Brexit? When is the vote? Etc.

Sorry for the Yank ignorance.
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It basically requires the PM to go back to the EU and request an extension before no deal becomes a reality.

In other words it blocks Bojo from simply waiting until the clock runs out to leave without a deal.
 
Archie Gemmill Goal said:
Otherwise known as the ******* rules! It's spelled out in Article 50.
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Typical ******* foreigners, reading and understanding the rules; turning up to negotiations prepared and with all their ducks in a row; and having a clear idea about what they want and how to go about getting it.

Not at all like the proper Corinthian approach that David Davis, his colleagues and his successors have brought to the Brexit process.
 
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