Cont: Brexit: Now What? Magic 8 Ball's up

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McHrozni said:
That's not a hung Parliament.

That's a hung, drawn and quartered Parliament. You can't build a government without either SNP or LibDems (both, if you don't have the Conservatives).

Those two would have certain preconditions to entering a government, I'm sure.

McHrozni
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You need to factor in Brexit Party, the DUP and then Change or whatever they are called this week. but any election where the Tories lose seats is not good for them and you wonder why they would call an election in that case. But I think the polling in the next election is likely to be off right now as there will no doubt be all kinds of tactical shennanigans in the offing.
 
Archie Gemmill Goal said:
You need to factor in Brexit Party, the DUP and then Change or whatever they are called this week. but any election where the Tories lose seats is not good for them and you wonder why they would call an election in that case. But I think the polling in the next election is likely to be off right now as there will no doubt be all kinds of tactical shennanigans in the offing.
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There's one more factor to consider. If Tories lose and a new government is formed by a coalition of, say, Labour+SNP+LibDem+whomever and that coalition stops Brexit, that's not necessarily bad for Tories. They can simply campaign on "delivering on the referendum" five years later or whenever the fragile anti-Brexit coalition collapses.

Remember, BJ and Farage don't want Brexit at all. It's their golden goose after all, why kill it?

McHrozni
 
Farage certainly don't, but I'm not so sure about Johnson. Just like Thatcher is still fawned over for having crushed the trade unions and privatised a lot of industry, Johnson would be fawned over in perpetuity for having finally removed the UK from the EU.

There would be plenty sinecures lined up (the JCB gig and that column in the Torygraph were only the start of it) for someone with that kind of pedigree.
 
KDLarsen said:
Farage certainly don't, but I'm not so sure about Johnson. Just like Thatcher is still fawned over for having crushed the trade unions and privatised a lot of industry, Johnson would be fawned over in perpetuity for having finally removed the UK from the EU.

There would be plenty sinecures lined up (the JCB gig and that column in the Torygraph were only the start of it) for someone with that kind of pedigree.
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Hmm. Maybe. Johnson is not dead set on delivering Brexit if someone else gets the blame for the failure, that's for sure.

McHrozni
 
In today's episode of 'the government think they are above the law' No 10 have declined to give a sworn statement to the court detailing why they wish to prorogue parliament - presumably because they don't want to lie to the court.
 
Arcade22 said:
Spanish farmers? Really? I guess you've given up hope on the German car makers forcing their Government to give into Britain's demands to have their cake and eat it too.
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Cars don't rot quite as quickly as fresh fruit and vegetables.
 
P.J. Denyer said:
Why would they do that if "they need us more than we need them"?
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  • Because they're sick of the continued extensions?
  • Because they don't like their news and politics distracted by the ongoing Brexit story?
  • Because there might be some reward for them from the UK in the long term?
  • Because they don't particularly like the EU themselves?
But I agree they probably won't. The big powers in the EU are desperate to entice/force the UK into remaining (with the help of the UK remainer MPs), and the smaller countries in the UK will most likely go along with the big powers for fear of reprisals.
 
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ceptimus said:
Cars don't rot quite as quickly as fresh fruit and vegetables.
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True, but then again fruit and vegetables are easier to re-purpose and/or redirect. It doesn't change the fact that Leavers were sure that BMW and Mercedes would twist Angela Merkel's arms and Germany would force the EU to come crawling back to the negotiating table and give the UK exactly what we wanted (as soon as we worked out what that might be). The idea that Spanish farmers would do so is equally fanciful IMO.

Then again, my first car was a 1981 Austin Allegro so maybe they do rot faster :p
 
ceptimus said:
  • Because they're sick of the continued extensions?
  • Because they don't like their news and politics distracted by the ongoing Brexit story?
  • Because there might be some reward for them from the UK in the long term?
  • Because they don't particularly like the EU themselves?
But I agree they probably won't. The big powers in the EU are desperate to entice/force the UK into remaining (with the help of the UK remainer MPs), and the smaller countries in the UK will most likely go along with the big powers for fear of reprisals.
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This is not a description of reality. The "big powers" in the EU - and the rest of us as well - aren't happy about the UK leaving, primarily because it'll cause economic hardship, primarily in the UK, which is a big market. We are also not keen on the EU leaving without a deal, because the hardship will be much greater than it otherwise would have been, and it will be many years until trade is up and running again. That said, the EU recognizes the right of the British people to make bad decisions and the EU aren't interested in forcing or even enticing the UK to remain members a minute longer than they want to. Doing so would be bad politics for the rest of the member states.

Ceptimus, it's time for you to realize that the rest of the EU aren't going to be a whipping boy for you anymore. If you want to leave, get the **** out, but don't pretend to blame the rest of us for your own inadequacies.
 
ceptimus said:
Cars don't rot quite as quickly as fresh fruit and vegetables.
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The point was that if the economic interests of German car makers, and all other car makers in the EU, weren't important enough to override the general interest in the integrity of the EU, then there's no way the concerns of Spanish farmers, and all the other farmers throughout the EU, were going to matter. Yes it would be sad if the farmers were going to suffer economically because the UK left the EU without a trade agreement, but all the governments of the remaining member states have agreed there are more important things at stake here, especially since the impact will be far less severe on other member states.

As has been pointed out since before the referendum was held: The EU can't be seen to be playing favorites here by prioritizing interests of certain national economic sectors over the interests of all individual member states.
 
If Brexit does result in an election on 14 October, it turns out that it would have the effect of disenfranchising observant Jews*

Tens of thousands of religiously observant Jews will be unable to go to a polling station to vote on 14 October if a general election is called for that day, critics have warned.

The date slated for a proposed election clashes with the first day of Succot, a Jewish religious festival.

Observant Jews cannot vote on this day because activities associated with work - including writing - are prohibited on major festivals.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49561792

And here's me thinking that Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party were the raging anti-Semites :rolleyes:

In truth this is almost certainly an oversight, but had had it been Labour calling the election date, the right wing press would have been up in arms.

* - well unless they choose to vote by post
 
Tory MP Philip Lee has crossed to the floor to join the Lib Dems, meaning the Govermnent no longer holds a working majority.
 
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