Cont: Brexit: Now What? Magic 8 Ball's up

[McHrozni]

Anecdotally, very regularly, especially busy families.

Our immediate area is likely less impacted because we have a lot of middle-class people with nice kitchens making food from scratch. It's more likely to impact urban, less well off families who rely on processed food to a much greater extent.

Aha, ty. That would be the Labour base, would it not?

McHrozni

 

[catsmate]

We have no clear idea what kind of shortages of perishable items we may be facing - not least because we have no idea how long customs checking and so on will take after a no-deal Brexit.

Our food industry is like many of our other industries. We have a "just in time" pan-European supply and processing network. For example, even if we have enough milk (at whatever price), we may lack the processing capacity to make all the butter, yoghurt and other dairy products that we need.

We may have enough beef, but we may lack the capacity to create the ready meals that the British population want. Even if there is sufficient food to provide adequate calories for everyone (and even then there is considerable doubt about that), if it isn't of a type and in a form that people want to eat then we will still have a food shortage.

We could be up to our ears in raw swedes and tripe but that doesn't mean that there won't be food shortages

Don't forget toilet paper. The vast majority of the UK's consumption is imported, over 85% IIRR. A couple of weeks delay would be......messy.

 

[ponderingturtle]

Maybe some people in the UK are thinking that maybe the almost total prohibition on private citizens owning any kind of firearm was not such a great idea after all.....you give up the last resort defense against a dictator.

Political assassination has not been historically effective against dictators. See Turkey for a good example of how dictators get set up and that they are actually pretty popular.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

They do not contradict each other. There is nothing to suggest trade will halt if we leave with a no deal.

I didn't say trade would stop. You said that the supply chains are well organised and smoothly running and I pointed out that is aided by being in the EU. You said it wasn't but then went on to say it was.

I am more inclined to believe those whose job it is to wholesale trade in fish that any speculation here or in the press.

If the fish trader is not concerned about overall supply, then I am also not concerned.

Fine, but you are dealing with ONE fish trader who may or may not be well informed. I have given you the facts and pointed out why there is room to be concerned. Did your fish trader address these concerns?

The head of Birds Eye is very concerned and he buys and sells a hell of a lot more fish than your market trader does.

 

[The Don]

Aha, ty. That would be the Labour base, would it not?

McHrozni

Labour base and the Brexiteer base - and the overlap between.

The food supply chain goes far beyond complete ready meals. Very few people don't consume any pre-processed food at all.

 

[McHrozni]

Labour base and the Brexiteer base - and the overlap between.

Fun.

The food supply chain goes far beyond complete ready meals. Very few people don't consume any pre-processed food at all.

That's the case for all of us, it's just the relative percentages that are different. Still, as I said earlier, it is possible to avoid food riots if you supply enough staples.
This is not enough to prevent shortages of course, but it prevents food riots and starvation.

McHrozni

 

[Wudang]

If you visit an independent fishmonger you will usually find a much wider range of fish (and shellfish etc) than you will find in the fish market at Morrison's or Asda. I'm guessing the wholesaler might still be able to sell all the squid, ling, Vietnamese catfish etc he wants to the former whereas selling unfamiliar fish in supermarkets seems to be more of a challenge.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Market is huge no doubt, but how often do Brits use ready and precooked foods? I was looking more into anecdotical stuff to be honest, you come from a posch Brexiteer rural area, it seems to me that's the kind of area that would be impacted the most.

McHrozni

Processed foods are the staple diet of the vast majority of ordinary people I would say.

We eat more than a million fish fingers every day. All cod, haddock or other white fish. None of this is caught in UK waters because UK cod and haddock stocks are protected due to them being hugely depleted. But equally they are about the only fish most Brits eat. Birds Eye is the market leader and make them in Germany and then import the frozen fish fingers. They are looking at a 20% tariff once the initial port chaos calms down. nobody really knows if and when and for how long imports will be affected.

We sell about 200 million portions of good old fish and chips every year. Again almost all cod haddock or other white fish. Half of the market is small independent fish and chip shops. How long would they last without cod and haddock imports? Can they go a month without sales of fish?

Maybe we can all just eat good old british sausages instead? Except 2 thirds of all pork product are imported from the EU.

Roast beef? 35% imported.

Lamb? A third imported.

Ah well at least we can eat chips right? We have potatoes! Well...nope because we are self-sufficient in potatoes but import most of the processed potato products like frozen chips that people actually use. Nobody makes their own chips anymore.

Fruit and veg? F'ed.

Chicken? We make about 60% of what we eat by weight but we have a problem because Brits only like to eat breast meat so we end up exporting the dark meat and importing the white meat meaning that it's actually a lot more than 40% of a shortfall.

Oh and what do you do with the chickens? If the ports are f'ed? You can't export them. You can't let them live for welfare reasons and there isn't enough cold storage capacity so you will need to slaughter them and incinerate them. But there isn't enough incineration capacity to do the job in the UK so you will have chicken meat rotting somewhere. God knows what problems that will cause.

Has all of this been considered and mitigated by the Government who are desperate to make it happen? Would you trust BJ to have this under control?

 

[McHrozni]

Processed foods are the staple diet of the vast majority of ordinary people I would say.

We eat more than a million fish fingers every day. All cod, haddock or other white fish. None of this is caught in UK waters because UK cod and haddock stocks are protected due to them being hugely depleted. But equally they are about the only fish most Brits eat. Birds Eye is the market leader and make them in Germany and then import the frozen fish fingers. They are looking at a 20% tariff once the initial port chaos calms down. nobody really knows if and when and for how long imports will be affected.

We sell about 200 million portions of good old fish and chips every year. Again almost all cod haddock or other white fish. Half of the market is small independent fish and chip shops. How long would they last without cod and haddock imports? Can they go a month without sales of fish?

Maybe we can all just eat good old british sausages instead? Except 2 thirds of all pork product are imported from the EU.

Roast beef? 35% imported.

Lamb? A third imported.

Ah well at least we can eat chips right? We have potatoes! Well...nope because we are self-sufficient in potatoes but import most of the processed potato products like frozen chips that people actually use. Nobody makes their own chips anymore.

Fruit and veg? F'ed.

Chicken? We make about 60% of what we eat by weight but we have a problem because Brits only like to eat breast meat so we end up exporting the dark meat and importing the white meat meaning that it's actually a lot more than 40% of a shortfall.

Oh and what do you do with the chickens? If the ports are f'ed? You can't export them. You can't let them live for welfare reasons and there isn't enough cold storage capacity so you will need to slaughter them and incinerate them. But there isn't enough incineration capacity to do the job in the UK so you will have chicken meat rotting somewhere. God knows what problems that will cause.

Has all of this been considered and mitigated by the Government who are desperate to make it happen? Would you trust BJ to have this under control?

Hmm.

From the looks of it this means a reduction in meat consumption by about 50% and a switch from fried to boiled potatoes. If it didn't come with a collapse in fruit and vegetable intake Brexit might as well be a national diet plan, resulting in improved overall health.

So ... almost an upside for Brexit!

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

Hmm.

From the looks of it this means a reduction in meat consumption by about 50% and a switch from fried to boiled potatoes. If it didn't come with a collapse in fruit and vegetable intake Brexit might as well be a national diet plan, resulting in improved overall health.

So ... almost an upside for Brexit!

McHrozni

One of the side effects of WWII rationing with the low sugar, low meat content, high vegetable content and so on combined with a levelling of the playing field was that people in the UK were, on average, better nourished than they were pre-war.

 

[ceptimus]

No doubt the Spanish farmers will be very happy to accept that lorry loads of their produce will sit, rotting and unpaid for, in ports due to trading difficulties after Brexit. "It's for the good of the EU", they will say, "so we're quite happy to lose our income."

 

[The Don]

No doubt the Spanish farmers will be very happy to accept that lorry loads of their produce will sit, rotting and unpaid for, in ports due to trading difficulties after Brexit. "It's for the good of the EU", they will say, "so we're quite happy to lose our income."

Doesn't matter how cross they are, if it's a lack of capacity on the UK side to cope with the volume of customs and bio-security inspections post-Brexit, there's little they can do about it.

In any case, the EU market is sufficiently large and sufficiently well integrated to absorb any additional capacity - possibly to the detriment of imports from outside the EU.

edited to add.....

Of course the issue is asymmetrical. In the event of a complete breakdown in trade between Spain and the UK, Spain stands to lose a market accounting for 7% of its exports very inconvenient but likely recoverable from, the UK endures major shortages of some food items.

 

[McHrozni]

One of the side effects of WWII rationing with the low sugar, low meat content, high vegetable content and so on combined with a levelling of the playing field was that people in the UK were, on average, better nourished than they were pre-war.

I know. It won't be worse than the Blitz!

McHrozni

 

[Worm]

The independent fishmonger etc. is a lovely thought, but currently rather impractical.

I'm a pretty middle class guy, I make most of our meals myself, from scratch. I rarely visit a local fishmonger, butcher or baker or whatever for one simple reason - I work. Almost all of the lovely local shops are only open during the working day, when I'm not around. I do a certain amount at the weekend, but that can only get you so far.

Our local supermarkets may not carry a massively exciting range of fish or meat - though they're not bad - but at least they are open when I have the option of shopping.

There are other options that could make all this work - but they will take time to fit in, you're talking about pretty fundamental cultural and economic changes.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

No doubt the Spanish farmers will be very happy to accept that lorry loads of their produce will sit, rotting and unpaid for, in ports due to trading difficulties after Brexit. "It's for the good of the EU", they will say, "so we're quite happy to lose our income."

Or they will just send the lorries to Germany.

It's not a choice that is being made by the EU so it's nothing to do with 'being good for the EU' if you could put your persecution complex to one side for a minute you might realise that.

 

[KDLarsen]

Some interesting polling coming out ahead of the suspected snap election, suggesting that while the Tories might lose a few seats (including all their seats in Scotland), Labour will lose even more, resulting in yet another hung parliament.

Conservatives 311 -6
Labour 242 -20
Lib Dems 21 +9
SNP 52 +17

Rest of the parties would remain unchanged.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/en...ll-analysis-shows_uk_5d6d8e61e4b0cdfe05745b9f

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

The independent fishmonger etc. is a lovely thought, but currently rather impractical.

I'm a pretty middle class guy, I make most of our meals myself, from scratch. I rarely visit a local fishmonger, butcher or baker or whatever for one simple reason - I work. Almost all of the lovely local shops are only open during the working day, when I'm not around. I do a certain amount at the weekend, but that can only get you so far.

Our local supermarkets may not carry a massively exciting range of fish or meat - though they're not bad - but at least they are open when I have the option of shopping.

There are other options that could make all this work - but they will take time to fit in, you're talking about pretty fundamental cultural and economic changes.

And that's the rub. We are talking about 2 separate things. The chaos of no-deal in the short term and the negative effects of no-deal in the long term.

In the long term food prices will probably rise for most things people want but pretty much everything will still be available. In the short term nobody really knows what we will see, but the likelihood is that it will certainly be chaotic for a while if for no other reason than the public will panic buy.

 

[Arcade22]

No doubt the Spanish farmers will be very happy to accept that lorry loads of their produce will sit, rotting and unpaid for, in ports due to trading difficulties after Brexit. "It's for the good of the EU", they will say, "so we're quite happy to lose our income."

Spanish farmers? Really? I guess you've given up hope on the German car makers forcing their Government to give into Britain's demands to have their cake and eat it too.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Some interesting polling coming out ahead of the suspected snap election, suggesting that while the Tories might lose a few seats (including all their seats in Scotland), Labour will lose even more, resulting in yet another hung parliament.

Conservatives 311 -6
Labour 242 -20
Lib Dems 21 +9
SNP 52 +17

Rest of the parties would remain unchanged.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/en...ll-analysis-shows_uk_5d6d8e61e4b0cdfe05745b9f

What's the rub if BJ goes through with expelling people from the party?

You have to imagine some of them at least would make a good fist of standing as independents if they need to.

 

[McHrozni]

Some interesting polling coming out ahead of the suspected snap election, suggesting that while the Tories might lose a few seats (including all their seats in Scotland), Labour will lose even more, resulting in yet another hung parliament.

Conservatives 311 -6
Labour 242 -20
Lib Dems 21 +9
SNP 52 +17

Rest of the parties would remain unchanged.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/en...ll-analysis-shows_uk_5d6d8e61e4b0cdfe05745b9f

That's not a hung Parliament.

That's a hung, drawn and quartered Parliament. You can't build a government without either SNP or LibDems (both, if you don't have the Conservatives).

Those two would have certain preconditions to entering a government, I'm sure.

McHrozni