Cont: Brexit: Now What? Magic 8 Ball's up

[Nessie]

You realise these two sentences contradict each other?

They do not contradict each other. There is nothing to suggest trade will halt if we leave with a no deal.

I am more inclined to believe those whose job it is to wholesale trade in fish that any speculation here or in the press.

If the fish trader is not concerned about overall supply, then I am also not concerned.

 

[Nessie]

That's a tad extremist; one could claim that there was no food shortages during and after the second world war given that definition.

Lettuce and other salad products from Spain, flowers from the Netherlands and some types of fish.

Your comparison with WWII rationing is a new form of Godwin's Law.

 

[Nessie]

Finally ! A group of working people who stand to gain from Brexit.

If you make or sell GB stickers, you stand to make a bundle in the near future, especially in Northern Ireland.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-49558563

Perhaps the UK sticker industry will help to plug the gaps made by post-Brexit shrinkage to the financial services, manufacturing (which is currently rapidly contracting), haulage and retail sectors.

A couple of weeks ago, for the first time, I bought a GB sticker for going to Ireland. I just kept in my bag, as a just in case.

I saw no vehicle displaying a sticker. There are so many who will refuse to display one, that I suspect it will not be enforced.

It is only UK government advice, there is nothing about needing one from the Irish.

 

[McHrozni]

Unless it is sitting in a port rotting of course, in which case nobody gets any fish. But are you seriously suggesting people are going to switch to mackerel and chips instead of cod or haddock?

Possibly not, but that is not a food shortage, it is refusing to eat something else that is a perfectly acceptable substitute.

What Archie wrote is the very definition of a food shortage. It is not the kind of shortage that would lead to famine, probably not even food riots though.

Please remind me, was that widely campaigned on during the Brexit campaign? "There will be shortages, but we promise you very few will actually starve to death if we leave the EU, so vote for Leave!"

Was that a selling point for Brexit?

McHrozni

 

[Nessie]

"No credible alternative" is the "No true Scotsman" fallacy. You get to define what is and what is not 'credible' and so are able to reject every plan except your own.

Talking about credible, you were going to back up your claim that Tory leavers did not cause May's deal to be repeatedly voted down and for us to be presently looking at a no deal Brexit.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Lettuce and other salad products from Spain, flowers from the Netherlands and some types of fish.

Your comparison with WWII rationing is a new form of Godwin's Law.

Terrys chocolates including Chocolate Oranges, Lots of Cadbury products, all Rowntree's and Fry's, Quality Street.
All imported from Europe now.

Toblerone, Kinder Eggs, Belgian Chocolates.

It's a nightmare!

 

[The Don]

Lettuce and other salad products from Spain, flowers from the Netherlands and some types of fish.

Your comparison with WWII rationing is a new form of Godwin's Law.

We have no clear idea what kind of shortages of perishable items we may be facing - not least because we have no idea how long customs checking and so on will take after a no-deal Brexit.

Our food industry is like many of our other industries. We have a "just in time" pan-European supply and processing network. For example, even if we have enough milk (at whatever price), we may lack the processing capacity to make all the butter, yoghurt and other dairy products that we need.

We may have enough beef, but we may lack the capacity to create the ready meals that the British population want. Even if there is sufficient food to provide adequate calories for everyone (and even then there is considerable doubt about that), if it isn't of a type and in a form that people want to eat then we will still have a food shortage.

We could be up to our ears in raw swedes and tripe but that doesn't mean that there won't be food shortages

 

[erwinl]

A couple of weeks ago, for the first time, I bought a GB sticker for going to Ireland. I just kept in my bag, as a just in case.

I saw no vehicle displaying a sticker. There are so many who will refuse to display one, that I suspect it will not be enforced.

It is only UK government advice, there is nothing about needing one from the Irish.

Well. In priciple there's already a landcode 'sticker' on your numberplate. So I don't think it would be necessary to add a seperate sticker.

On the other hand.
I do remember getting this folder from the British customs at Dover, while waiting for the ferry, the sunday after the brexit vote that we would have to buy a land code sticker the next time we wanted to visit the UK by car, as the police would have to see from which country you came from.

Uhm. No. Piss off with your stupid stickers. Just look at our number plate. It clearly says which country we come from. Better use the money spend in making these folders to buy the police some glasses or teach them to read.

A shame I did not keep that folder, for I threw it away in disgust.
It did make me wonder though, how fast this was printed and distributed, as the vote had only been two days before.

 

[McHrozni]

We have no clear idea what kind of shortages of perishable items we may be facing - not least because we have no idea how long customs checking and so on will take after a no-deal Brexit.

Our food industry is like many of our other industries. We have a "just in time" pan-European supply and processing network. For example, even if we have enough milk (at whatever price), we may lack the processing capacity to make all the butter, yoghurt and other dairy products that we need.

We may have enough beef, but we may lack the capacity to create the ready meals that the British population want. Even if there is sufficient food to provide adequate calories for everyone (and even then there is considerable doubt about that), if it isn't of a type and in a form that people want to eat then we will still have a food shortage.

We could be up to our ears in raw swedes and tripe but that doesn't mean that there won't be food shortages

How common is consumption of ready meals across UK?

As a continental I can still remember what I bought the last time I had one, a chicken fillet in cheeze sauce and some rice. It was sometime in 2009 or 2010, I think. I had between five and seven ready meals in my life total thus far.

McHrozni

 

[catsmate]

Less than 75%, given that a chunk of it is caught in other EU waters.

Which I'm sure won't be effected by Brexit...

 

[Tolls]

30% of our food comes in from the EU.
Remove the free flow of goods, which a No Deal would do, and that is scuppered.
In addition, much of the 20% that comes from other countries is via trade agreements that are EU agreements, and will vanish via a No Deal, since we would fall back to WTO terms.

We only supply half of our own food.

We do not possess food warehouse space to cover that.
Not when a large amount of the warehouse space from October onwards has been prebooked well in advance, as it is every year.

No...we won't starve.
But yes, we'll have a crappy Christmas.

Great work, everyone!

And by "everyone" I mean the twats driving this idiocy.

ETA: But of course some fishmonger in Brum clearly has a better grasp of the intricacies of trade networks...

 

[The Don]

How common is consumption of ready meals across UK?

As a continental I can still remember what I bought the last time I had one, a chicken fillet in cheeze sauce and some rice. It was sometime in 2009 or 2010, I think. I had between five and seven ready meals in my life total thus far.

McHrozni

Ready meals are a big deal in the UK

UK – the largest market for ready meals in Europe
With regard to the market in Western Europe, Euromonitor reports that the combined value amounted to EUR 24 billion in 2017 with the market expected to grow to EUR 27 billion by 2022. The UK ready meals market is the largest in Europe and has posted an average of 2.5% year-on-year growth since 2003. In 2017, the retail value amounted to EUR 5.5 billion. France and Germany also have a well-established ready meals market.

https://agricultureandfood.co.uk/kn...-matters/2018/october/the-rise-of-ready-meals

That's full meals. If individual processed components in an otherwise cooked from scratch meal (for example a bought in slow cooked lamb shank served with freshly cooked vegetables) then likely it's even larger.


edited to add....

I now regularly have them. When I go Oop North to visit Daddy Don, I don't want to leave any perishable waste so I typically have a "healthy" single serving microwavable meal for my lunches. I can then just wash and recycle the containers. Something like this isn't haute cuisine but it's easy.

https://groceries.morrisons.com/web...rrito/445147011?param=fresh+ideas&from=search

 

[Arcade22]

Hammond says Johnson wrong to claim progress being made in Brexit talks
Q: Dominic Raab says the Benn bill will undermine the negotiations.

Hammond says it will certainly delay it.

But he says the government is being “disingenuous”. He says “there is no progress”. Boris Johnson was given 30 days by Angela Merkel to come up with a solution to the backstop. Twelve days later nothing has happened.

Q: Johnson says it is the fault of the rebels.

Hammond says Johnson is talking “nonsense”.

He says “no progress is being made” because “the UK government has tabled no proposals”.
He says there are no alternative arrangements for the backstop that would meet the UK’s red lines.
He says he wants to see the UK’s proposals published. He wants to see them submitted to the EU, and he wants to see the EU’s response.
He says there is not even a UK negotiating team.

Just like i said:

So why hasn't BJ published it in detail? If the EU was somehow refusing to consider these completely reasonable solutions to the Irish border problem why hasn't he shown them? Where are the white papers?

Oh that's right, the white papers say they are not credible alternatives that can be delivered on time. That's why they are not showing them.

 

[McHrozni]

Ready meals are a big deal in the UK

https://agricultureandfood.co.uk/kn...-matters/2018/october/the-rise-of-ready-meals

That's full meals. If individual processed components in an otherwise cooked from scratch meal (for example a bought in slow cooked lamb shank served with freshly cooked vegetables) then likely it's even larger.

Market is huge no doubt, but how often do Brits use ready and precooked foods? I was looking more into anecdotical stuff to be honest, you come from a posch Brexiteer rural area, it seems to me that's the kind of area that would be impacted the most.

McHrozni

 

[catsmate]

"No credible alternative" is the "No true Scotsman" fallacy. You get to define what is and what is not 'credible' and so are able to reject every plan except your own.

Or you could read the government's own report....

 

[a_unique_person]

So why hasn't BJ published it in detail? If the EU was somehow refusing to consider these completely reasonable solutions to the Irish border problem why hasn't he shown them? Where are the white papers?



Oh that's right, the white papers say they are not credible alternatives that can be delivered on time. That's why they are not showing them.

They are in the same filling cabinet as Trump's Mexican trade deal.

 

[The Don]

Market is huge no doubt, but how often do Brits use ready and precooked foods? I was looking more into anecdotical stuff to be honest, you come from a posch Brexiteer rural area, it seems to me that's the kind of area that would be impacted the most.

McHrozni

Anecdotally, very regularly, especially busy families.

Our immediate area is likely less impacted because we have a lot of middle-class people with nice kitchens making food from scratch. It's more likely to impact urban, less well off families who rely on processed food to a much greater extent.

 

[catsmate]

Best way for Boris to succeed if the rebel alliance succeed on foisting a further delay on him is to persuade one of the EU member country leaders to veto any further extension. Hungary's Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, could perhaps do it.

Any bribe paid to Hungary by the UK in return for the favour would probably have to be kept secret - or the EU might veto the veto.

Ah yes, bribing a foreign leader to frustrate the will of parliament, very democratic...

 

[Castro]

You don't even need his kind of evidence. If BJ wanted a agreement with the EU before brexit and knew of a credible alternative to the backstop, then why hasn't he published a report clearly showing how it would work in theory and practice? The answer is because there are no credible alternatives and he's just bluffing about his sincerity of securing a agreement.

Johnson seems only interested in talking to his base of hard brexiters and of course alternative arrangements for backstop exist in their alternate reality world. It's easy, they just have to say so. Actually these guys remind me of bigfooters.

 

[Darat]

Lettuce and other salad products from Spain, flowers from the Netherlands and some types of fish.



Your comparison with WWII rationing is a new form of Godwin's Law.

Rubbish. You claim not being able to get the food you want isn't food shortage, during and after the 2nd world war there was plenty of foods that weren't rationed, therefore according to your reasoning there wasn't food shortage. You can't have it both ways if you want to use consistent reasoning.