Cont: Brexit: Now What? Magic 8 Ball's up

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I think they know the most about their supply chain and how it is going to work with border checks.

Fishermen are expecting serious problems and there is no particular reason to expect that a randomly chosen small businessman like a fishmonger will be particularly knowledgeable about his supply chain.

If fishermen hit problems then this will impact fishmongers regardless.

Just some facts - The majority of UK catch is exported, about 75% with the vast majority to the EU, we import more than we catch in total - and that includes cod, haddock, salmon, prawns and tuna.

We don't have enough RN support to police our fisheries and problems are expected as well

 

[Nessie]

Fishermen are expecting serious problems and there is no particular reason to expect that a randomly chosen small businessman like a fishmonger will be particularly knowledgeable about his supply chain.

If fishermen hit problems then this will impact fishmongers regardless.

Just some facts - The majority of UK catch is exported, about 75% with the vast majority to the EU, we import more than we catch in total - and that includes cod, haddock, salmon, prawns and tuna.

We don't have enough RN support to police our fisheries and problems are expected as well

I am talking about potential food shortages. If we export 75% of our catch to the EU, then if that cannot be exported, it will stay in the UK and we will have lots of fish for Fridays.

There will be other problems, major ones, just not food shortages.

 

[Lothian]

I think they know the most about their supply chain and how it is going to work with border checks.

-------------
What is the most popular fish in the UK?
The top ten is as follows:
Salmon
Tuna
Cod
Haddock
Warmwater prawns
Coldwater prawns
Mackerel
Pollack
Scampi
Sardines

What seafood is imported into the UK?
In 2010, a total of 687,054 tonnes of seafood worth £2.23 billion was imported into the UK.
The countries the UK receives imports from reflects our traditional tastes in seafood:
Cod, haddock and other white fish come from Iceland and the Faroe Islands.
Salmon from Norway.
Salmon and pollack from the USA.
Cold water prawns from Denmark and Canada.
Tuna from Mauritius and the Seychelles.
Warmwater prawns from Thailand, India and Bangladesh.
-------------link
We import £1bn more fish than we export.

I think we have a deal with the Faroes not the others
I think fishing will be affected less than other industries

Rather than being a shortage of fish I think it will be more that we have different non traditional fish in our fishmongers.
Ling, megrim, anglerfish and saithe. The latter freely caught around sewer outlets. Yum!

 

[KDLarsen]

Johnson playing the "Oh woe is me..."-card, saying he doesn't want an election, but that parliament voting for Benn bill tomorrow will result in Brexit being postponed, which he doesn't want to do.

 

[catsmate]

I think they know the most about their supply chain and how it is going to work with border checks.

I really rather doubt it. Few retailers have any idea of the complexity of the supply chain that provides them with goods.

 

[catsmate]

I am talking about potential food shortages. If we export 75% of our catch to the EU, then if that cannot be exported, it will stay in the UK and we will have lots of fish for Fridays.

Except for the inability to substitute different product, the lack of transport resources, the lack of suitable storage resources and the lack of planning on how exactly the unwanted fish that would be exported magically replaced the imported fish.

There will be other problems, major ones, just not food shortages.

This is just blind optimism.

 

[Mojo]

None. BJ will delay the election until after Halloween. BJ promised we will leave on the 31st October come what may. While he can deliver that the gammons will love him. If on 1 November we are still in the EU his stock value falls. Labour want to fight a weak BJ not a strong one.
1. Push though a law change preventing a no deal brexit
2. Refuse to back a GE
3. Wait until 1 November
4. Call for a vote of no confidence.

Corbyn's ego may stop the above.

As might his desire for Brexit.

 

[Mojo]

A Norway style deal would be a sensible way to implement the referendum result. It would take us out of the EU while maintaining a lot of the links that would allow us to manage the exit.

It would be a sensible first step towards a greater level of disconnection if that's what the country wants and equally if the country decided to return to the EU it would be a manageable re-entry.

That’s why the Brexiteers don’t want it.

 

[Information Analyst]

[Dup]

 

[Information Analyst]

St Swinson of Remain** isn't going to float in and do anything - hell, she might lose her seat to the SNP (again).

**Remind me how much campaigning she actually did for Remain the first time round? I know that Jeremy Corbyn was virtually absent and only appeared at 15 pro-remain rallies, sent 100 or so pro-remain tweets, and appeared stating the pro-remain position about 120 times in the media, during the 46 days, but oddly I can't find any record for Jo Swinson.

That's a bit of a snide thing to say, given that not only was Swinson not the leader of the Lib-Dems in 2016, she was not even an MP at the time. How much media attention do you think she would have got, even if she had been campaigning?

 

[Information Analyst]

I am talking about potential food shortages. If we export 75% of our catch to the EU, then if that cannot be exported, it will stay in the UK and we will have lots of fish for Fridays.

Less than 75%, given that a chunk of it is caught in other EU waters.

 

[Nessie]

-------------
What is the most popular fish in the UK?
The top ten is as follows:
Salmon
Tuna
Cod
Haddock
Warmwater prawns
Coldwater prawns
Mackerel
Pollack
Scampi
Sardines

What seafood is imported into the UK?
In 2010, a total of 687,054 tonnes of seafood worth £2.23 billion was imported into the UK.
The countries the UK receives imports from reflects our traditional tastes in seafood:
Cod, haddock and other white fish come from Iceland and the Faroe Islands.
Salmon from Norway.
Salmon and pollack from the USA.
Cold water prawns from Denmark and Canada.
Tuna from Mauritius and the Seychelles.
Warmwater prawns from Thailand, India and Bangladesh.
-------------link
We import £1bn more fish than we export.

I think we have a deal with the Faroes not the others
I think fishing will be affected less than other industries

Rather than being a shortage of fish I think it will be more that we have different non traditional fish in our fishmongers.
Ling, megrim, anglerfish and saithe. The latter freely caught around sewer outlets. Yum!

I think that we will experience a change in diet more than food shortages.

Not transporting food and eating locally is good for the environment.

 

[Nessie]

I really rather doubt it. Few retailers have any idea of the complexity of the supply chain that provides them with goods.

It was the Birmingham food market, where wholesale meets retail. It was a wholesale fish trader who was being interviewed. He is intimately familiar with the market and supply chain.

 

[Nessie]

Except for the inability to substitute different product, the lack of transport resources, the lack of suitable storage resources and the lack of planning on how exactly the unwanted fish that would be exported magically replaced the imported fish.



This is just blind optimism.

Having worked for a paper merchant in a wholesale food market and lived in a fishing village, the supply chain is quite simple and organised.

Fishermen land fish (British, Icelandic, EU), which are bought remotely and often in advance by the market traders. The fish is then transported to the wholesale market for the retailers to purchase.

The catch and demand varies significantly by day and the market is used to large fluctuations.

The majority of shellfish is transported abroad, that is where the biggest issue lies.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I am talking about potential food shortages. If we export 75% of our catch to the EU, then if that cannot be exported, it will stay in the UK and we will have lots of fish for Fridays.

There will be other problems, major ones, just not food shortages.

Unless it is sitting in a port rotting of course, in which case nobody gets any fish. But are you seriously suggesting people are going to switch to mackerel and chips instead of cod or haddock?

 

[GlennB]

Unless it is sitting in a port rotting of course, in which case nobody gets any fish. But are you seriously suggesting people are going to switch to mackerel and chips instead of cod or haddock?

Or mussels and chips? Actually, that sounds good to me, but I like shellfish.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Having worked for a paper merchant in a wholesale food market and lived in a fishing village, the supply chain is quite simple and organised.

And you don't think that has anything to do with being in the EU?

 

[Nessie]

Unless it is sitting in a port rotting of course, in which case nobody gets any fish. But are you seriously suggesting people are going to switch to mackerel and chips instead of cod or haddock?

Possibly not, but that is not a food shortage, it is refusing to eat something else that is a perfectly acceptable substitute.

 

[Nessie]

And you don't think that has anything to do with being in the EU?

No, since the fish markets and trading routes have been going on since forever.

The EU, as in the free market it provided has made that trade simpler and that is going to stop.

 

[jeremyp]

A Norway style deal would be a sensible way to implement the referendum result. It would take us out of the EU while maintaining a lot of the links that would allow us to manage the exit.

It would be a sensible first step towards a greater level of disconnection if that's what the country wants and equally if the country decided to return to the EU it would be a manageable re-entry.

Given where we are I think a lot of people would accept it as a compromise though of course nothing less than nuking Europe from orbit will satisfy the slobbering idiots of the Brexit party and the ERG

Did you read any of the rest of my post?

There is no way any Brexiteer would accept a Norway deal unless they are totally stupid. The Norway deal is exactly the same as being in the EU except we don’t have any control over EU policy.

Personally, I would be ok with it if it was that or a more radical Brexit, but I’d still want to know why don’t we just stay in.