Cont: Brexit: Now What? Magic 8 Ball's up

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ceptimus said:
I'm very glad that May's deal didn't pass as we now have a chance of getting either a better deal, or no deal (which in my opinion would also be better) under Boris.
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That's super, and very 2016:

We are going to get a deal which is of huge value and possibly of greater value ... We are going to get the best possible deal for trade in goods and services.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37642902


...but you'll want to keep in mind that your view is a minority one, and has been for some time:

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politic.../04/what-do-public-think-about-no-deal-brexit

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opini...membership_referendum#Post-referendum_polling

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questio...u-without-a-deal-which-would-you-support-2-3/

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questio...n-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/euref2-poll-of-polls/


BritainThinks survey, January 2017:

Bregrets? I’ve found very few. Polls show remainers are getting over it

Leavers are punching the air over Brexit, and even those who voted to stay in the EU now appear to be coming to terms with the result of the referendum
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https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ets-remainers-polls-leavers-brexit-referendum


BritainThinks survey, June 2019:

Divided, pessimistic, angry: survey reveals bleak mood of pre-Brexit UK

‘I can’t recall such despair,’ says top pollster, and 72% of population fear divisions will get worse
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https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ry-survey-reveals-bleak-mood-of-pre-brexit-uk
 
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Mojo said:
Would you care to explain why neither of those would have satisfied the referendum mandate?

ETA: you’ll need to explain exactly what the referendum provided a mandate for, and why “BRINO” wasn’t it.
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Standard pro-Leave bait and switch. Offer all sorts of Soft Brexits before the Referendum, whilst denying No Deal is a real option, then after the Referendum insist that only No Deal is "real Brexit."
 
ceptimus said:
Why on earth would Brexiters ever vote for either of those BRINO ideas? They were even more remain than May's terrible deal.
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Here's one Brexiteer explaining why:

https://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-single-market-brexit-campaign-customs-union-2018-1

A few snippets:

"We could construct a relationship with the EU that more closely resembled that of Norway or Switzerland - except that we would be inside the single market council, and able to shape legislation"

"We need to stay in the council of ministers of the internal market. In my view, the British have done good things for Europe."

"We have the free movement of goods meaning French companies can buy important things like infrastructure in the UK and we benefit."

Here's a video of various Brexiteers justifying "BRINO".



Does that answer your question?

McHrozni
 
catsmate said:
And this staggeringly irrelevant point means......?
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It means that Ceptimus is conveniently forgetting that the Conservatives had 327 seats after the 2017 election, whilst all the other parties (not including SF) had 315. Also that some "opposition" MPs are also pro-Leave, and have voted accordingly.

The Party has a majority of one.

The Party has always had a majority of one.

Long live Big Boris!
 
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McHrozni said:
FTFY, YW :)

McHrozni
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The questions in your second version would be the correct ones to use in a second referendum (if one is held) given that leave already won the first referendum so now all that remains to be decided is the manner of leaving.

Obviously the question would change to, 'How should the UK leave the EU?'

Any referendum can't make the EU offer a deal, so the deal on offer (e.g. Mrs May's) would need to be specified.

This also assumes that the EU is willing to offer a further extension allowing the referendum to be held.
 
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GlennB said:
Anyhoo ... now an improbably expensive advertising campaign kicks off, starting today, preparing Brits for a 31st Oct hard brexit *

"One leading advertising industry source pointed out that this [£100M] figure was substantially higher than the amount spent on traditional advertising in the UK by major consumer brands such as Amazon, Tesco and Asda in the whole of 2018."

I wonder if there will be outright lies?

* Silly me, but I thought Parliament had a say in such things.
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It's also eleven times the amount the government spent on their leaflet before the Referendum, which many Leavers (naming no names) got so worked up about.
 
GlennB said:
Anyhoo ... now an improbably expensive advertising campaign kicks off, starting today, preparing Brits for a 31st Oct hard brexit *

"One leading advertising industry source pointed out that this [£100M] figure was substantially higher than the amount spent on traditional advertising in the UK by major consumer brands such as Amazon, Tesco and Asda in the whole of 2018."

I wonder if there will be outright lies?

* Silly me, but I thought Parliament had a say in such things.
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The magic money tree has been shaken until it's roots are loose.
 
ceptimus said:
The questions in your second version would be the correct ones to use in a second referendum (if one is held) given that leave already won the first referendum so now all that remains to be decided is the manner of leaving. Obviously the question would change to, 'How should the UK leave the EU?'
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No, that question is already settled. Over 48% of population voted for status quo. If anything over 1% of the electorate that voted Leave does not consent to no deal the only options left are with a deal or else no Brexit.

Leavers would have a leg to stand on if the result was somewhere north of 60-40. That would be grounds to see Brexit, come hell or high water. They are, however, taking a 52-48 result as if it were 96-4. War is an acceptable result in the later scenario, but Brexit Britain is facing a civil war over upholding a 52-48 result that would be ruled invalid if it were binding.

Mchrozni
 
Watching BBC Breakfast this morning, yet again a reporter suggested that Labour MPs in constituencies that had a Leave majority will incur the wrath of voters if they try to stop a No Deal Brexit. This was brought into sharp relief when the Conservative MP Antoinette Sandbach - who is openly opposed to No Deal - was interviewed a few minutes later, and not once was reminded that her constituencies backed Leave by 52.2%. Nor was it mentioned that that she still managed to get re-elected in 2017 with a 12,000 majority, despite having campaigned for Remain at the 2016 Referendum.

Sandbach also said that she only heard about the deselection threat "through the press."
 
P.J. Denyer said:
The magic money tree has been shaken until it's roots are loose.
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It had better hang on for dear life. The confidence-and-supply agreement with the DUP runs out at the end of the current parliamentary session, and there's nothing to suggest they'll ease off the throttle were Johnson to rely on them for the next session as well.
 
Information Analyst said:
Watching BBC Breakfast this morning, yet again a reporter suggested that Labour MPs in constituencies that had a Leave majority will incur the wrath of voters if they try to stop a No Deal Brexit. This was brought into sharp relief when the Conservative MP Antoinette Sandbach - who is openly opposed to No Deal - was interviewed a few minutes later, and not once was reminded that her constituencies backed Leave by 52.2%. Nor was it mentioned that that she still managed to get re-elected in 2017 with a 12,000 majority, despite having campaigned for Remain at the 2016 Referendum.

Sandbach also said that she only heard about the deselection threat "through the press."
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Its amazing how much the media shape a narrative that suits them regardless of whether it is true or not. They are just as culpable as the liars in the Commons and elsewhere.
 
ceptimus said:
I'm not clear what you mean by your last sentence. Which vote are you talking about?

  • The referendum itself? We will never really know how they voted in that - just as we don't know how Corbyn voted: it was a secret ballot and we only have the word of those who have publicly said how they voted.
  • The article 50 vote? I think Ken Clarke was the only Tory to vote against that.
  • A different one?
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As I said, the votes on May's deal, you know, the lady who was PM, who negotiated a deal to leave and it was voted on, repeatedly in Parliament.

That her deal was rejected by Parliament is in part due to Tory leavers voting against it.

That is why we are at the situation we are in now, with no deal looking very likely. The one attempt so far at a deal, May's deal, was voted down.
 
"No deliverable alternative to the backstop"

And the lies of BoJo and the Brexiteers are (again) exposed.

All potential solutions to the post-Brexit Irish border are fraught with difficulty and would leave smaller businesses struggling to cope, experts have said, as leaked government papers outline major concerns just two months before Britain is due to leave the EU.
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A report summarising the findings of the government’s official “alternative arrangements” working groups concluded that there are issues with all the scenarios put forward to try to replace the backstop arrangement. There are also specific concerns over whether any technological solution could be delivered to monitor cross-border trade.
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The dossier marked “official-sensitive” prepared for the EU Exit Negotiations Board is dated 28 August. It details how the findings of all advisory groups informing the government on the Northern Irish border are being kept deliberately under wraps to try to avoid hampering Britain’s intended renegotiation of the backstop agreed to by Theresa May.
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the damning report shows there is no single deliverable solution at present, despite the fact Johnson is almost a third of the way through the “30 days” target that the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, gave him to come up with a fresh border proposal.
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Johnson’s claim that a hard border could be avoided with mobile checks of livestock and crops was dismissed by experts as the most unlikely option to work. The report said: “Overall there were a number of concerns surrounding the deliverability of technological facilitations.”
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Questions were also raised over whether a trusted trader scheme – the current favourite for a border solution – would require infrastructure to set it up.
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More details at The Guardian.
 
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