Cont: Brexit: Now What? Magic 8 Ball's up

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I'm still at a total loss for what the "end state" is in all this.

Okay so the deadline passes without a deal. Do we really think that's gonna be the end of Brexit as a concept?
 
I'm not an expert on these matters, but I saw a woman who was supposed to be a constitutional expert interviewed yesterday on some TV news program (BBC or Sky news, I forget which). She was asked the question about a VONC just before prorogation and I've paraphrased the answer she gave.

Maybe she was wrong. :confused: They seem to be making up the rules as they go along.
 
JoeMorgue said:
I'm still at a total loss for what the "end state" is in all this.

Okay so the deadline passes without a deal. Do we really think that's gonna be the end of Brexit as a concept?
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The deadline passes without a deal and the UK crashes out of the EU on WTO terms. In the coarsest terms, Brexit has been achieved but that's just the beginning.

That still leaves the major issue of the future relationship with the EU which may take years or decades to agree, possibly across multiple governments with different opinions regarding Europe and with their own internecine battles - against a background of whatever turmoil a no-deal Brexit has put the UK in; whatever other challenges are presented by negotiating trade deals with the other major economies and trading blocs; and trying to do business in the meantime on WTO terms.

The ultimate end state will be the UK having a completely different set of global trading relationships in a number of years or decades time.

The Brexit fun and games will just be beginning. In the same way that George W Bush was rather preemptive standing in front of a banner, declaring "Mission Accomplished" Brexiteers doing the same on 31 October 2019 in the event of a no-deal Brexit will IMO be a mistake.
 
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BobTheCoward said:
Highest authority: "Nope, I reject. You don't have authority over me. That is what 'highest' means."
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A meeting of MP’s, no matter how comprehensive, isn’t Parliament, so they can’t get together and start making laws. Current law doesn't allow MP's to just get together and call themselves Parliament, and the MP's have to follow these laws. If Parliament were in session it could simply change the law, but it isn't so it cant.


The process for convening and proroguing Parliament is anachronistic but this isn't normally a problem because you can't normally make permanent major changes simply by denying Parliament the ability to vote on it.
 
The Don said:
That still leaves the major issue of the future relationship with the EU which may take years or decades to agree, possibly across multiple governments with different opinions regarding Europe and with their own internecine battles...
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That's also true if we leave WITH a deal. Of course, we'd have the 'transition period' where things stay the same as now, but if you think it will take years or decades to agree then we'd be stuck in the transition stage for years or decades - and the EU would love that.

Better, in my opinion, to make a clean break and give both sides an incentive to negotiate the future relationship more quickly.
 
ceptimus said:
That's also true if we leave WITH a deal. Of course, we'd have the 'transition period' where things stay the same as now, but if you think it will take years or decades to agree then we'd be stuck in the transition stage for years or decades - and the EU would love that.

Better, in my opinion, to make a clean break and give both sides an incentive to negotiate the future relationship more quickly.
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And a few dead bodies is a small price to pay for it right?
 
lomiller said:
A meeting of MP’s, no matter how comprehensive, isn’t Parliament, so they can’t get together and start making laws. Current law doesn't allow MP's to just get together and call themselves Parliament, and the MP's have to follow these laws. If Parliament were in session it could simply change the law, but it isn't so it cant.


The process for convening and proroguing Parliament is anachronistic but this isn't normally a problem because you can't normally make permanent major changes simply by denying Parliament the ability to vote on it.
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How does that square with parliamentary sovereignty? It is a previous parliament controlling a future parliament. If true, one could pass a law that includes the requirement that if they ever try to reverse the law, they immediately go out of session. It isnt limiting future parliament because they simply are not in session.
 
jimbob said:
I think his stunt to prorogue Parliament is his attempt to get out of this.

He's setting it up to blame the EU for the no deal.

He s expects to take some flack for that, so he wants a usable majority somehow.

Prorogue Parliament
Opposition have little option but try for a no confidence vote, and a caretaker government, which will call an election.

Johnson goes to his base, trying to sell the narrative that he tried to deliver Brexit before an election but that it was betrayed and he's forced into the election, which would happen before a no deal, but which wouldn't stop it.
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I disagree. It is not a stunt. There is a conspiracy between BoJo, Dominic Cummings, Nigel Farage, Donald Trump, Steve Bannon, various of the ERG to force the UK into a right-wing dictatorship not dissimilar to the Nazi coup in the 1930's.

Farage,Trump and BoJo might act like buffoons for the cameras but they are nasty characters with undemocratic agendas up their sleeves.
 
In other news:

Javid is seething that Rasputin Cummings summarily fired Javid's media advisor prior to an important announcement. Looks like Cummings is our true leader these days.

And Raab announced a huge support package of £3M (3 quid per expat :rolleyes:) to advise expats on how to best complete their applications for continued residence in the EU; while such applications might be guaranteed to fail, especially given the awful decisions and suffering already being heaped on EU citizens in the UK trying to secure their residence after many years of being solid, valuable citizens.

You actually couldn't make this up, but what I fear is they're going to wash their hands of any expat woes, either way. It meshes nicely with the NHS bombshell they dropped the other day.

I think it's reasonable to be pretty scared, whoever you might be that's caught up in this crap in some way. We seem to have our mini-Goebbels pulling the strings.
 
BobTheCoward said:
I'm getting confused around the highest authority part.

Highest authority: "we are in session"

Lower authority: "I asked another lower authority to make you out of session. You are out of session now."

Highest authority: "Nope, I reject. You don't have authority over me. That is what 'highest' means."

This is where I get confused about parliamentary sovereignty. How can a lower authority put the highest authority out of session?
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Think of it like a court. Evidence presented outside of a sitting court is immaterial. Likewise parliament has to be formally declared in session for bills to be presented and laws passed.

Ceptimus' ridiculous idea that MP's can still meet and vote during suspension fails to mention that.
 
BobTheCoward said:
That....clears it up. Thank you.

But that means part of parliament with authority over prorogation approved prorogation on itself? It was an action by parliament?
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It was a Privy Council made up of senior members of the government.

The Queen has no power to object to their demands (throw back to bad King John and the setting up of the Magna Carta that took away divine right of monarchs and established a bill of rights thus enabling parliament to determine running the affairs of the country). However, constitutionally, parliament and the Supreme Court (and indeed all courts) are subject (owned) by the Queen. Hence the nicety of the PM conferring with her and higher officials bowing and scrapping even though they make the rules.

Now do you get it?
 
Archie Gemmill Goal said:
It was an action of the Crown yes.

One reason why prorogation is not the same as the normal break for conference season (and why people like Ceptimus who say it is are lying) is that prorugation suspends all activity of Parliament including the Lords.

Normally the Lords would continue to have sat and snoozedduring Conference season and normally a lot of parliamentary work would still continue. Prorugation stops everything except constituency work.

If it was 'business as usual' as the liars claim then they wouldn't have done it at all.
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FIFY
 
ceptimus said:
That's also true if we leave WITH a deal. Of course, we'd have the 'transition period' where things stay the same as now, but if you think it will take years or decades to agree then we'd be stuck in the transition stage for years or decades - and the EU would love that.

Better, in my opinion, to make a clean break and give both sides an incentive to negotiate the future relationship more quickly.
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Presumably you feel yourself smugly safe from uncertainty and a hostile environment.
 
Vixen said:
I disagree. It is not a stunt. There is a conspiracy between BoJo, Dominic Cummings, Nigel Farage, Donald Trump, Steve Bannon, various of the ERG to force the UK into a right-wing dictatorship not dissimilar to the Nazi coup in the 1930's.

Farage,Trump and BoJo might act like buffoons for the cameras but they are nasty characters with undemocratic agendas up their sleeves.
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You left out the ultimate string puller in all of this:Putin.
 
GlennB said:
In other news:

Javid is seething that Rasputin Cummings summarily fired Javid's media advisor prior to an important announcement. Looks like Cummings is our true leader these days.

And Raab announced a huge support package of £3M (3 quid per expat :rolleyes:) to advise expats on how to best complete their applications for continued residence in the EU; while such applications might be guaranteed to fail, especially given the awful decisions and suffering already being heaped on EU citizens in the UK trying to secure their residence after many years of being solid, valuable citizens.

You actually couldn't make this up, but what I fear is they're going to wash their hands of any expat woes, either way. It meshes nicely with the NHS bombshell they dropped the other day.

I think it's reasonable to be pretty scared, whoever you might be that's caught up in this crap in some way. We seem to have our mini-Goebbels pulling the strings.
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Maybe some people in the UK are thinking that maybe the almost total prohibition on private citizens owning any kind of firearm was not such a great idea after all.....you give up the last resort defense against a dictator.
 
dudalb said:
Maybe some people in the UK are thinking that maybe the almost total prohibition on private citizens owning any kind of firearm was not such a great idea after all.....you give up the last resort defense against a dictator.
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We also lack an armed police force and have a very small army. So who is going to force the British public at gun point to accept a dictatorship?
 
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