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Fun with "Pascal's Wager"

I have to disagree, as I stated before. The original wager was on the basic question of the existence of God. Owing to his own background, and the time he lived in, that translated into accepting the Roman Catholic faith, but that's not officially the content of the wager. It's theist versus atheist. Even if you dispute, as most of us do, either the odds or the validity of the wager, it's a far different proposition from the idea that you must then accept every crackpot notion that comes down the pike. Even the strictest Christian faith allows you some slack, and some room for personal judgment. Even for a down-the-line, dogmatic Catholic, your proposition is a bad bet, both as to the likelihood of its being true, and the likelihood of eternal damnation if I guess wrong. You make the same mistake Iamme and others seem to be making when they argue against skepticism, that once you've accepted any belief at all, you are living in some kind of blind faith about everything. Not all Christians are zombies.

Well, I'm simply trying to bring up the same logical question that I mentioned earlier.

I want to know why the Wager is allowed to count Christianity and not every other religion. If it claims to use logic, then shouldn't there be a reason for that?

And I use the hamburger example because I want to know WHY it's wrong. (and keep in mind that I'm questioning the pure logic of Pascal's Wager here, not necessarily Christianity itself.)

The only answer I can guess is that the stories of Christianity are far more popular than the stories of a single person. But of course, popularity doesn't make things correct. But of course, you could say that it could make one unprovable thing more likely to be correct than another. But if that's the case, why are you a Christian and not a Hindu?

You're now making me have the whole conversation with myself, but hopefully you can see how I'm trying to break the thing down...

(and I know we already had this exchange which is why I was directing it at Iacchus)

Iacchus said:
If it was simply a matter of taking another person's word for it, I would say that it is a complete and utter joke ... and, that in effect there is no God.
How is the word of a person on the phone in the middle of the night different than the word of the person who introduced you to Christianity? Or the word of Matthew, Mark, Luke or John? Why is one more valid than the other?
 
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Well, I'm simply trying to bring up the same logical question that I mentioned earlier.

I want to know why the Wager is allowed to count Christianity and not every other religion. If it claims to use logic, then shouldn't there be a reason for that?

And I use the hamburger example because I want to know WHY it's wrong. (and keep in mind that I'm questioning the pure logic of Pascal's Wager here, not necessarily Christianity itself.)

The only answer I can guess is that the stories of Christianity are far more popular than the stories of a single person. But of course, popularity doesn't make things correct. But of course, you could say that it could make one unprovable thing more likely to be correct than another. But if that's the case, why are you a Christian and not a Hindu?

You're now making me have the whole conversation with myself, but hopefully you can see how I'm trying to break the thing down...

(and I know we already had this exchange which is why I was directing it at Iacchus)


How is the word of a person on the phone in the middle of the night different than the word of the person who introduced you to Christianity? Or the word of Matthew, Mark, Luke or John? Why is one more valid than the other?


In terms of pure logic, I agree the wager falls apart, but on face value, it's only the wager that God exists. In actual terms, because Pascal was a man of his time and place, he assumes that this must require that he adhere to the Catholic faith, which includes, of course a proviso that not believing in God is a grievous sin indeed. This is an obvious flaw in the wager, which makes it, to my mind at least, a foregone conclusion. The dice are loaded.

However, I still think your example fails. If you take the wager on its face value and say "belief in god," it entails no further faith and does not require him to believe in you. It assumes that any belief in any God is a better bet than atheism and stops there. All other bets must be made on their own odds. IN this situation, popularity might well be a significant factor. It certainly is in some things. Is your disbelief in flying saucers based only on scientific evidence, or is it not, at some level, also based on an assessment of who sees them and who doesn't?

If you take the wager at its obvious meaning for Pascal, as I believe he makes pretty explicit, that it means accepting the authority and rituals of the Roman Catholic Church, then with that package, he gets some benefits. The acceptance of authority, a hugely important aspect of most faiths, and especially of the Catholic one, puts the burden elsewhere. The Church gives you some rules on what you must believe and what you may doubt, and a whole slew of official procedures and authoritarian processes by which claims like your hypothetical one could be tested, including the very simple one of asking his priest, in his capacity as an agent of that supreme authority, what he thinks and accepting the priest's authority when he says you're full of BS. He's off the hook. The people who run this operation are not total fools, however odd you may think their doctrines. They must realize that the open trust and faith that they require of their followers runs the risk of credulity about other things as well, and as a result they are quick to assert their authority and to provide safeguards against what they claim as false beliefs, imposture, heresy, etc. Faith, at least of the sort we're talking about here, is not universal and open-ended. I repeat, to be a Christian you need not become a zombie.
 
How is the word of a person on the phone in the middle of the night different than the word of the person who introduced you to Christianity? Or the word of Matthew, Mark, Luke or John? Why is one more valid than the other?
My belief in God is simply a matter for me to decide ... no one else. If there is a heaven and hell, then "I" am ultimately responsible for who I am. The responsibility falls directly upon my shoulders in other words. While at the same time, it doesn't preclude me from listening to what others have to say on the matter.
 
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In terms of pure logic, I agree the wager falls apart, but on face value, it's only the wager that God exists. In actual terms, because Pascal was a man of his time and place, he assumes that this must require that he adhere to the Catholic faith, which includes, of course a proviso that not believing in God is a grievous sin indeed. This is an obvious flaw in the wager, which makes it, to my mind at least, a foregone conclusion. The dice are loaded.
Yes. Especially because, when you get beyond face value, the laws of various religions are mutually exclusive. Simply believing in a God doesn't get you off the hook. You have to choose one. That's the point where I ask "Why Christianity?" But I've already said that, and I think we see eye to eye here.

However, I still think your example fails. If you take the wager on its face value and say "belief in god,"
For this particular example, I'm not taking it at face value. I'm challenging it as an actual logical argument for belief in God. From that standpoint, it seems that actually subscribing to that logic opens you up to things like that.

But if you don't use it as an actual logical argument, and you simply ignore or dismiss extreme cases like that, then you aren't really using logic. At that point, I feel that I've exposed the holes in it...which is all I want to do.

It certainly is in some things. Is your disbelief in flying saucers based only on scientific evidence, or is it not, at some level, also based on an assessment of who sees them and who doesn't?
I would bet against "flying saucers." But my reason isn't because the people sighting them seem stupid. Third World fishermen caught that fish that was believed to be extinct. I didn't disbelieve it because they were poor or uneducated. I simply waited until it was being reported all over the news with the pictures. Within a short time, it was. So I guess I tend more towards evidence.

If you take the wager at its obvious meaning for Pascal, as I believe he makes pretty explicit, that it means accepting the authority and rituals of the Roman Catholic Church,
I'm not challenging Pascal himself. Christianity might have been all he really knew in terms of religion. I'm questioning modern people who have Google and world news and still "choose" Christianity when using the Wager as an argument.

then with that package, he gets some benefits. The acceptance of authority, a hugely important aspect of most faiths, and especially of the Catholic one, puts the burden elsewhere. The Church gives you some rules on what you must believe and what you may doubt, and a whole slew of official procedures and authoritarian processes by which claims like your hypothetical one could be tested, including the very simple one of asking his priest, in his capacity as an agent of that supreme authority, what he thinks and accepting the priest's authority when he says you're full of BS. He's off the hook. The people who run this operation are not total fools, however odd you may think their doctrines. They must realize that the open trust and faith that they require of their followers runs the risk of credulity about other things as well, and as a result they are quick to assert their authority and to provide safeguards against what they claim as false beliefs, imposture, heresy, etc. Faith, at least of the sort we're talking about here, is not universal and open-ended. I repeat, to be a Christian you need not become a zombie.
So are you saying, basically, that Christianity is a lot more organized and thus seems more credible than a guy on the phone? I agree. But if organization and apparent believability are the criteria...there are a load of religions and government systems that are very organized and successful that Christians ignore. The logic seems to break down there as well.

And that's why I ask the hamburger question. I'm not saying "You should be getting me hamburgers!" I'm asking why they wouldn't, and then breaking the logic down from there...

Iacchus said:
My belief in God is simply a matter for me to decide ... no one else. If there is a heaven and hell, then "I" am ultimately responsible for who I am. The responsibility falls directly upon my shoulders in other words. Yet at the same time, it doesn't preclude me from listening to what others have to say on the matter.
So you don't consider it a matter of reason? I can at least understand that.

What do you think of Pascal's Wager? Do you think it's logical? Do you support other Christians who use that to justify their religion?
 
So you don't consider it a matter of reason? I can at least understand that.
I'm not sure what you mean? It certainly does matter that I be able to reason it out for myself.

What do you think of Pascal's Wager? Do you think it's logical? Do you support other Christians who use that to justify their religion?
I don't know? It all depends on whether you think God is looking for suckups or not?
 
Yes. Especially because, when you get beyond face value, the laws of various religions are mutually exclusive. Simply believing in a God doesn't get you off the hook. You have to choose one. That's the point where I ask "Why Christianity?" But I've already said that, and I think we see eye to eye here.


For this particular example, I'm not taking it at face value. I'm challenging it as an actual logical argument for belief in God. From that standpoint, it seems that actually subscribing to that logic opens you up to things like that.

But if you don't use it as an actual logical argument, and you simply ignore or dismiss extreme cases like that, then you aren't really using logic. At that point, I feel that I've exposed the holes in it...which is all I want to do.


I would bet against "flying saucers." But my reason isn't because the people sighting them seem stupid. Third World fishermen caught that fish that was believed to be extinct. I didn't disbelieve it because they were poor or uneducated. I simply waited until it was being reported all over the news with the pictures. Within a short time, it was. So I guess I tend more towards evidence.


I'm not challenging Pascal himself. Christianity might have been all he really knew in terms of religion. I'm questioning modern people who have Google and world news and still "choose" Christianity when using the Wager as an argument.


So are you saying, basically, that Christianity is a lot more organized and thus seems more credible than a guy on the phone? I agree. But if organization and apparent believability are the criteria...there are a load of religions and government systems that are very organized and successful that Christians ignore. The logic seems to break down there as well.

And that's why I ask the hamburger question. I'm not saying "You should be getting me hamburgers!" I'm asking why they wouldn't, and then breaking the logic down from there...


So you don't consider it a matter of reason? I can at least understand that.

What do you think of Pascal's Wager? Do you think it's logical? Do you support other Christians who use that to justify their religion?


I guess what I'm saying in a sense is that once Pascal has made his wager and accepted Catholicism, he doesn't have to get you burgers. If he made a different bet, and bet on some other religion that had no mechanism for evaluating claims that god wants him to get you burgers, he might be out of luck, but the wager is not a continuing one. He makes it once on the first set of odds, and need not continue wagering after that. His choice is for a religion with enough authority to exempt him from burger duty.

As for flying saucers, I wasn't thinking so much "stupid people see them," or the like, as evaluating the veracity of people who never see them. Probably a a poor example on my part.

I entirely agree that Pascal's wager is not a logically sound proposition for any modern Christian, and as I've said before I don't think it really was for Pascal either.
 
My belief in God is simply a matter for me to decide ... no one else. If there is a heaven and hell, then "I" am ultimately responsible for who I am. The responsibility falls directly upon my shoulders in other words. While at the same time, it doesn't preclude me from listening to what others have to say on the matter.

Is there some aspect of your belief in God that doesn't come in some part from something a human being told you? How have you decided who to listen to and who not to?
 
I'm not sure what you mean? It certainly does matter that I be able to reason it out for myself.

I asked you how you decide who you trust in regards to your faith, and you said it's just a matter for you to decide yourself.

That gave me the impression that you don't bother with reason when deciding your religious beliefs. Which I would understand.

But now you're saying do. I would ask more but I don't want to get too far off-topic.

I don't know? It all depends on whether you think God is looking for suckups or not?

Well, in your opinion, is God looking for suckups?
 
An example of a Zen koan from Alan Watts', Behold the Spirit ...

In answer to a question about the meaning of Reality an old master simply held up his fly-whisk, and another master asked one of his monks to explain the action. "The master's idea," replied the monk, "was to elucidate the spiritual along with the material, to reveal truth by means of an objective reality." "Your understanding," said the master, "is all right as far as it goes. But why are you in such a hurry to make theories about it?" At this the monk asked, "What, then, will be your explanation?" The master held up his own fly-whisk.
This is hilarious! :D
 
Originally Posted by c4ts :
Evidently this is not an all-powerful God as well, because an all-powerful God could restructure justice as he saw fit until it was just to create someone damned to eternal torment.


...just like an all-powerful God can change the laws of logic so that an unliftable rock becomes a logical possibility?!

You're saying that God's laws would be arbitrary; that if God says so, then it is ok to mutilate babies. And then goodness, or justice, no longer have any meaning.

Can God create an object to heavy for him to lift? Yes. Then can God lift it? Yes. But God does not do such a thing, he has the ability to do it, but he does not.

So then you ask how I could know God won't change the laws of logic? How could I know that God won't break promises, sin, cause himself not to exist?

Is not breaking his promises a limitation to power? no. Is not being able to sin a limitation to power? no. Is not being able to not exist a limitation to power? no.

On the other hand, it is my limitation of power to have the ability to break promises, sin, and not exist.
 
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What's the point of the "koan" story? That reality exists outside of theories? If that's your point, just say so.
 
What's the point of the "koan" story? That reality exists outside of theories? If that's your point, just say so.
Ah, but it would just be a theory now wouldn't it? ... Or, if it wasn't, how would I know? :)
 
Can God create an object to heavy for him to lift? Yes. Then can God lift it? Yes. But God does not do such a thing, he has the ability to do it, but he does not.
You have no way of knowing that he does not, since anything God says, God can simultaneously contradict, and not let you know any of it. You forget that even though God does not appear to behave certain ways, you've already left the boundaries of logical discourse. It does no good to assume any kind of consistent behavoir when the entire concept of "consistency" no longer has meaning.

So then you ask how I could know God won't change the laws of logic? How could I know that God won't break promises, sin, cause himself not to exist?
Though you may think you have the answers and believe what others say on this subject (or you might not), breaking the confines of thought itself means you will never, ever, know, not now, not in a million years, not if God himself gave you all the answers, not even if you actually did know, or knew everything there is to know and everything that is not there to know. "Possibility," "impossibility," "contradiction," and other things no longer apply. Once the entire structure of knowledge becomes meaningless, anything anybody says goes, and pattern recognition no longer holds up. You're dealing with absurdity here.

Is not breaking his promises a limitation to power? no. Is not being able to sin a limitation to power? no. Is not being able to not exist a limitation to power? no.
Since all ideas about what this sort of God is doing or is not doing hold no more weight than pure speculation, it doesn't matter if God doesn't do something. God might be doing it and not doing it at the same time, in the same sense, but preventing you from finding out, and it would appear to you no different.

On the other hand, it is my limitation to power to have the ability to break promises, sin, and not exist.
This isn't really about promises anyway. A God powerful beyond logic can keep promises by breaking them, and break promises by keeping them. If this isn't making any sense to you, that's because it shouldn't.

The solution is to say that things like justice and logic exist outside of and independantly from God, and therefore he is subject to them. Therefore, God can't do anything illogical (and therefore he is not omniscient), and he is capable of both just and unjust actions.
 
You have no way of knowing that he does not, since anything God says, God can simultaneously contradict, and not let you know any of it.

God's nature is to be all-powerfull, therefore he "decides" based upon his nature, because God cannot change. (not changing is in this case not a limitation to power either) If Gods nature is to be all-powerfull and he "decides" based upon that nature, then He "decides" the more powerfull route because he must in order to be all-powerfull. The more powerfull route is not to break promises, not to sin, or not to not exist. Rather than breaking promises, sinning, or not existing.
 
Ah, but it would just be a theory now wouldn't it? ... Or, if it wasn't, how would I know? :)
If your point has merit, you should be able to make it clearly. The only people that hide behind obscure quotations and unfunny jokes are the ones unwilling or unable to support their position.
 
If your point has merit, you should be able to make it clearly. The only people that hide behind obscure quotations and unfunny jokes are the ones unwilling or unable to support their position.
There is no position, outside of the position that you assume.
 
There is no position, outside of the position that you assume.
Because if you have a position, you might be proven wrong. Mmhmm. I get it now.

What was your stance on Pascal's Wager again? Do you agree with it or not? What about other people who use it? Does God want suck-ups?
 
Because if you have a position, you might be proven wrong. Mmhmm. I get it now.

What was your stance on Pascal's Wager again? Do you agree with it or not? What about other people who use it? Does God want suck-ups?
No, I don't claim to be fully read up on Pasca's wager. However, the way that you and some of the other folks around here present it, I think the idea is entirely foolish.
 

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