Cont: Brexit: Now What? 7th heaven...

[Vixen]

We go to the pub every Tuesday after band practice. The pub is in a well-to-do part of South East Wales that was party of England until 1974. The clientele is pretty mixed by age, is roughly 50/50 incomer (like me and Mrs Don) or local and whilst most incomers are well off, quite a few of the locals are agricultural labourers or have similar poorly paid jobs.

Three members of the band lean left (by US standards, we've all left the Labour Party in recent years so are considered neo-liberals by the current Labour party and hated accordingly) but are probably the only ones over 35 there who do. Most people are Conservative voters.

The pub was agog at the prospect of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister (they don't reckon that Hunt has a chance because he is a "traitor" - i.e. hasn't supported a no-deal Brexit from day 1) and think that he'll be able to get the "unicorns and rainbows" Brexit deal that we've been promised.

If not, they are confident that a no-deal Brexit will be no big deal. The locals are confident that the agricultural subsidies they rely on will increase post-Brexit and the incomers (largely retired senior managers or directors of large companies) reckon that as soon as Brexit is achieved, countries will come begging to the UK for new trade deals - including the EU who will finally come to their senses.

They're happy that the "immigrant problem" will finally be dealt with, though the only immigrants locally are Mrs Don who was from the US originally and a Danish midwife who has been in the UK since she came to start her nurses training 35 years ago, and that as a result locals will have affordable places to live (whilst at the same time incomers' property prices will be maintained and no new properties will have to be built - no, I don't know how that will happen either). All in all they are looking forward to a no-deal Brexit.

Interestingly, one band member who is a dyed in the wool Conservative (though interestingly went to the same school as Jeremy Corbyn) has always insisted that he was a reluctant Remain supporter. Last night he was emboldened enough to state that he had voted Leave not because he wanted to Leave particularly but because of the very poor quality of the Remain campaign. If this is true, it means that after 3 years of lying about voting Leave he is coming clean. If not true then it seems that he, like so many Conservative MPs has jumped ship and changed his position.

The incomers are fine, they are rich enough to be insulated from the worst effects of Brexit (though their children and grandchildren may not) as as retirees, they can afford to pull the ladder up after them. The locals may have a harder time.

Look what happened after the 2008 recessions. One of my elderly relatives who retired 2001, an ordinary worker, gets more in his annuity than another of my relatives who retired recently from a final salary higher management civil job: this downward fall in value directly due to the 208 recession. So all those already retired or about to, in your community, will likely be OK, whereas the next generation are really going to be cursing as the NHS begins to be privately-insued, state pension becomes means-tested, which means their dream of retiring before the statutory age 74 will have to be put on hold as they will now be expected to live 100% on their private pension, or be means tested until it reaches the bare minimum threshold.

House prices will plunge but people will become scared of taking out long term mortgages as their property will be seized by the local authority as soon as they need to go into a care home, leaving nothing for their children when they pop their clogs.

 

[Vixen]

True. A band mate who was, until his retirement a couple of years ago, MD of a UK-based but globally selling bridge manufacturing company has pointed out that his experience of international trade leads him to anticipate that although there will be considerable short-term pain, the real risk to the UK will be in the long term.

Year on year, GDP growth will be somewhat lower than it would otherwise have been. UK business will have less influence on global standards and as a consequence will find itself increasingly on the outskirts of international trade rather than being influencers at the core which in turn will have an impact on whether investment will come to the UK or elsewhere (the UK's share of the EU's inward investment (that is money from outside the EU into the EU) has taken a sharp fall since the Brexit vote).

There won't be bread riots on day 1 of Brexit (which will cause Brexiteers to call it a triumph ), but the UK will gradually slip out of the top 10,15 or 20 of global economies as other economies outgrow us.

And note, the only reason Norway enjoys such wealth is because of North Sea oil. What unique raw material does the UK have?

 

[Vixen]

Likewise, the Brexit vote hit my wife's industry hard eventually leading to her redundancy at the end of last year, she was by far the greater bread winner in the household. I have a small business, two of my biggest regular customers are Polish and German, they've no intention of leaving the UK but I'd be noticeably poorer if they did. And I have a second job selling fine wines to the public, between the income squeeze and uncertainty it's been getting harder every year, this year has been awful so far and as it's commission only and I have to pay my own expenses it can actually end up costing me money. If the currency falls or we introduce tariffs that will be that.

GBP has fallen by 25% against the EUR in recent times.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

And note, the only reason Norway enjoys such wealth is because of North Sea oil. What unique raw material does the UK have?

Think there is at least a slight clue in the question

 

[The Don]

And note, the only reason Norway enjoys such wealth is because of North Sea oil. What unique raw material does the UK have?

We seem to have an overabundance of hubris, nostalgia and jingoistic pride but I'm not sure of their value or uniqueness.

 

[Hellbound]

We seem to have an overabundance of hubris, nostalgia and jingoistic pride but I'm not sure of their value or uniqueness.

Well, some of your political parties have definitely mined that resource to produce value for themselves...but yeah, it's not unique. Lately seems there's a worldwide over-supply

 

[The Don]

Think there is at least a slight clue in the question

tbh there are big differences in the reserves each country enjoys relative to population size and the way that historic revenues have been managed.

Norway appears to have invested theirs in infrastructure and sovereign wealth funds, the UK seems to have frittered ours away on living beyond our means and/or making sure that rich people and corporations are taxed as little as possible.

Norway seems to have more than twice the proven oil reserves of the UK - maybe three times and around 10 times the gas reserves but only 8% of the population - it makes for quite a different equation. Now if Scotland were to become independent and get almost all the UK's reserves then that would be a different story, for Scotland looking forwards (though past revenues will be forever lost).

 

[Francesca R]

one band member who is a dyed in the wool Conservative (though interestingly went to the same school as Jeremy Corbyn)

Well until a couple of years ago Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn lived in the same borough (along with me and a few hundred k others)

 

[Andy_Ross]

And note, the only reason Norway enjoys such wealth is because of North Sea oil. What unique raw material does the UK have?

North Sea Oil.
But Britain pissed the money up the wall and gave it to the wealthy.

 

[Andy_Ross]

tbh there are big differences in the reserves each country enjoys relative to population size and the way that historic revenues have been managed.

Norway appears to have invested theirs in infrastructure and sovereign wealth funds, the UK seems to have frittered ours away on living beyond our means and/or making sure that rich people and corporations are taxed as little as possible.

Norway seems to have more than twice the proven oil reserves of the UK - maybe three times and around 10 times the gas reserves but only 8% of the population - it makes for quite a different equation. Now if Scotland were to become independent and get almost all the UK's reserves then that would be a different story, for Scotland looking forwards (though past revenues will be forever lost).

I can guarantee that if Scotland gets independence they will end up getting very little of the oil.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

… I don't want Bresit-types bleating about how it's all going to work out in the end, as the economy slides.

I want this to work out pretty much from the off.
None of Rees-Moggs "we won't see benefits for up to 50 years" ********.

Why do I want that?
Because I don't want to be paying squit diddly for someone else's deranged fantasies. And I don't want my kids having to pick up the tab for morons...

"Up to 50 years" means my kids' entire working lives. (Except of course they'll have to work into their eighties now.) As our nation declines into international irrelevance I'm not going to forgive the liars who peddled a tale of rainbow-farting unicorns nor the gullible morons who voted for it.

 

[P.J. Denyer]

North Sea Oil.
But Britain pissed the money up the wall and gave it to the wealthy.

IIRC the Thatcher Government sold the exploitation rights cheap on the argument that they'd make more on taxing the profits, then cut corporate taxes and fell victim to 'creative' accountancy etc.

 

[McHrozni]

And note, the only reason Norway enjoys such wealth is because of North Sea oil. What unique raw material does the UK have?

No. The only reason Norway enjoys such wealth is because it's populated by Norwegians. The North Sea oil helped a lot in bringing the said wealth about, but you have countries with more and more easily accessible oil wealth who do not get to enjoy it quite so readily (Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Angola, Venezuela, Brunei, ...). You also have countries without significant natural wealth who also are quite wealthy (Iceland, Finland, Sweden, Denmark), many of whom share a history with Norway.

Wait, those four all do. What a coincidence

McHrozni

 

[McHrozni]

Hm, this is interesting:

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...f-no-deal-brexit-are-a-million-to-one-against

“It is absolutely vital that we prepare for a no-deal Brexit if we are going to get a deal,” he said. “But I don’t think that is where we are going to end up – I think it is a million-to-one against – but it is vital that we prepare.”

He said there was a new feeling of “common sense breaking out” among MPs in favour of passing a deal, despite many of his Eurosceptic backers believing he is readying himself for a no deal Brexit.
-- BJ Baboon

It seems like BJ will try to pass the WA one more time. Maybe the 'plan' is to ask the EU for a few more concessions, fail, claim victory and pass the agreement, then blame the EU for demanding UK holds up the treaty it just ratified.

He can't be stupid enough to believe EU will really cave in to him this time around, can he?

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

Hm, this is interesting:

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...f-no-deal-brexit-are-a-million-to-one-against

“It is absolutely vital that we prepare for a no-deal Brexit if we are going to get a deal,” he said. “But I don’t think that is where we are going to end up – I think it is a million-to-one against – but it is vital that we prepare.”

He said there was a new feeling of “common sense breaking out” among MPs in favour of passing a deal, despite many of his Eurosceptic backers believing he is readying himself for a no deal Brexit.
-- BJ Baboon

It seems like BJ will try to pass the WA one more time. Maybe the 'plan' is to ask the EU for a few more concessions, fail, claim victory and pass the agreement, then blame the EU for demanding UK holds up the treaty it just ratified.

He can't be stupid enough to believe EU will really cave in to him this time around, can he?

McHrozni

I think that Boris Johnson has learned from President Trump that it's perfectly acceptable to tailor the message to the audience even if it completely contradicts something you said 5 minutes ago or intend to say in 5 minutes time.

IMO Boris Johnson has no plan beyond becoming Prime Minister.

 

[McHrozni]

I think that Boris Johnson has learned from President Trump that it's perfectly acceptable to tailor the message to the audience even if it completely contradicts something you said 5 minutes ago or intend to say in 5 minutes time.

IMO Boris Johnson has no plan beyond becoming Prime Minister.

That too is a tantalizing option, true.

If that's the case he should be given the chalice. Bottoms up!

McHrozni

 

[Francesca R]

IIRC the Thatcher Government sold the exploitation rights cheap on the argument that they'd make more on taxing the profits, then cut corporate taxes and fell victim to 'creative' accountancy etc.

Not disagreeing with that but worth pointing out that HMRC tax on oil income is significantly higher than standard corporation tax.

Also Scottish nationalists are typically opposed to this, not so much because they believe in low tax on big business of course, but because "Westminster" is doing the taxing.

 

[Dave Rogers]

"Up to 50 years" means my kids' entire working lives.

Since I'm only 59, it could also mean the remainder of mine.

Dave

 

[The Don]

Given that both of the Prime Ministerial candidates are quite prepared for the UK to leave the UK with no-deal, perhaps this may be timely:

Japan's foreign minister has told the BBC that he is "very concerned" about the implications of a no-deal Brexit.

Taro Kono told the Today Programme that the 1,000 Japanese companies operating in the UK were concerned about the "negative impact" on their operations if the UK leaves the EU without a deal.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48783525

Then again, it's likely "Project Fear" spreading misinformation from foreign agents provocateur which originated from so-called "experts" so it can be happily ignored - sunny uplands and all that

Cold water is also poured on the prospect of a quick trade agreement with Japan:

He also cast doubt on the ability of the UK to sign a new trade deal with Japan - or other nations - before leaving the EU on 31 October.

The UK has said it wants to join the trade pact known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership. He said that while this was possible, negotiations could not take place until the UK had left the EU.

While Japan would be happy to negotiate a new trade deal with the UK, "I think you have get out of the EU first before you can negotiate".

Asked if a free trade deal with Japan could be agreed by 31 October, he said: "I don't think so".

 

[McHrozni]

Given that both of the Prime Ministerial candidates are quite prepared for the UK to leave the UK with no-deal, perhaps this may be timely:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48783525

Then again, it's likely "Project Fear" spreading misinformation from foreign agents provocateur which originated from so-called "experts" so it can be happily ignored - sunny uplands and all that

Cold water is also poured on the prospect of a quick trade agreement with Japan:

"He's just a bureocrat that wasn't directly elected in a far off, non-white land. What does he know anyway?"

McHrozni