Cont: Brexit: Now What? 7th heaven...

[Andy_Ross]

You forgot giving the Daily Mail another reason to complain about the BBC.

They were complaining that the audience for the debate had some people in it that weren't 'pro Tory'

Apparently it was despicable and shows the BBC are biassed against Boris and should be shutdown immediately.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Boris waljed back on his new agreement and out by October position.
Now it is just 'feasible'

 

[Klimax]

And then there were three. Still looking like Boris is going to lead the charge back to the times were sooo much better (mid 1700's)

And then there will be none.

Love reference to Agatha Christie's Ten Little Indians.

 

[KDLarsen]

Sounds like some tories are concerned about a potential Johnson v Gove matchup, owing to the bad blood between them and how it would reflect on the party in the forthcoming leadership contest. Good riddance, I say.

 

[KDLarsen]

So Hunt and Johnson are the final two.

 

[jimbob]

Johnson, Gove or Hunt.

What a choice to have make. I almost felt sorry for the Conservative members but then I remembered their views on, and enthusiasm for, a no-deal Brexit.

Two Tory MPs spoiled their ballots this time round

 

[Garrison]

The daily mail never complains when you get right wing extremists spouting off on TV. They will be loving the debates.

On the contrary, they have gotten very vexed over several of the people allowed to ask questions, which is clearly far more important than the candidates performance.

 

[Garrison]

Now its Johnson or Hunt, a choice on a par with asking would you rather be shot or hung?

 

[Lothian]

Sounds like some tories are concerned about a potential Johnson v Gove matchup, owing to the bad blood between them and how it would reflect on the party in the forthcoming leadership contest. Good riddance, I say.

Looks like Johnston had arranged tactical voting on behalf of his supporters to oust Gove.

Javid had 34 votes. 3 of his supporters came out publicly supporting Johnston meaning none of the other 31 or the one of the two spoiled papers who managed to tick a box voted for Johnston.

That seems unlikely. Therefore some of Johnston's previous supporters switched. Probably for Hunt.

 

[catsmate]

New Zealand is politically insane.
We declare we are going carbon neutral while increasing population at the fastest rate in the world, while also having the most absolutely secure borders in the world, and zero ability for refugees to arrive.
Jacinda Ardern is a disaster and a bare faced liar. Good luck with BJ.

Wow, so much crap in two sentences.

 

[The Atheist]

Jacinda Ardern is a disaster and a bare faced liar. Good luck with BJ.

Yeah, but she's a pretty little thing, breast-fed at the UN (after all the delegates had gone home), cried a lot over the Chch massacre and wore a scarf for a week.

So Hunt and Johnson are the final two.

If it's Hunt, at least tabloid-ready nicknames spring to mind more easily.

 

[McHrozni]

BBC is reporting 160 thousand Tory party members. From links provided by The Don earlier in the thread we can summarize they had no more 125 thousand members a few months ago, I think that info may be faulty. Given the information we have I think their numbers started to rise after the Brexit referendum in 2016, they mostly gobbled up former UKIP members.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48711077

If true this fully explains their idiotic enthusiasm for a no deal Brexit and creates a significant question mark about how accurate is the gauge of party members for their electoral support. It is at least partially true, such large shifts in membership is by definition self-selective.

McHrozni

 

[Lothian]

Looks like Johnston had arranged tactical voting on behalf of his supporters to oust Gove.

Javid had 34 votes. 3 of his supporters came out publicly supporting Johnston meaning none of the other 31 or the one of the two spoiled papers who managed to tick a box voted for Johnston.

That seems unlikely. Therefore some of Johnston's previous supporters switched. Probably for Hunt.

Apparently 5 MPs, Chris Philp, Chris Skidmore, Mims Davies, Kevin Foster and Mike Wood, said they would vote for Johnston when Javid went out. That means at least 2 of Johnston's supporters switched. Hunt beat Gove by 2..... Interesting to see if Gove becomes a Hunt attack dog.

 

[The Don]

BBC is reporting 160 thousand Tory party members. From links provided by The Don earlier in the thread we can summarize they had no more 125 thousand members a few months ago, I think that info may be faulty. Given the information we have I think their numbers started to rise after the Brexit referendum in 2016, they mostly gobbled up former UKIP members.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48711077

If true this fully explains their idiotic enthusiasm for a no deal Brexit and creates a significant question mark about how accurate is the gauge of party members for their electoral support. It is at least partially true, such large shifts in membership is by definition self-selective.

McHrozni

I'd be interested to know where the BBC got its "up to 160,000" figure from as the latest semi-authoritative figure is 124,000 from April 2018.

Ah, it seems that it came from the Conservatives themselves who have claimed this figure.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...ter-important-task-no-wonder-tory-membership/

 

[McHrozni]

I'd be interested to know where the BBC got its "up to 160,000" figure from as the latest semi-authoritative figure is 124,000 from April 2018.

Ah, it seems that it came from the Conservatives themselves who have claimed this figure.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...ter-important-task-no-wonder-tory-membership/

Hm. 36,000 seems awfully close to the numbers of UKIP party prior to their disintegration.

It looks like my specunalysis to the main cause for Conservative support for no-deal Brexit was alarmingly close to reality.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

Hm. 36,000 seems awfully close to the numbers of UKIP party prior to their disintegration.

Then again, many or most of them will have joined the Brexit Party, though whether there's anything to stop someone joining more than one party is a good question.

It looks like my specunalysis to the main cause for Conservative support for no-deal Brexit was alarmingly close to reality.

McHrozni

IMO looks like you have a hammer and you're on a nail hunt.

There has been a strong Eurosceptic wing of the Conservative Party for decades and the membership being predominantly old, white and male are right in the sweet spot for no-deal Brexit support. Conservative supporters broke 60/40 for Leave and IMO it's reasonable to expect that members, who are more Conservative (and conservative) than just supporters will have been even more enthusiastic about Brexit.

I don't think that there has to be any extraordinary explanation for the current opinions of the Conservative Party members involving large numbers joining from UKIP whilst large numbers of "moderate" Conservatives are leaving. Instead IMO it just represents a distillation of the views of the party membership at the time of the referendum.

 

[Tolls]

As I said before, over that poll of what tory members would be willing to sacrifice for a No Deal. It's a surprise that as many as 30% would balk at sacrificing everything.

That the party consists of nutters is no great surprise.
These are the people that thought IDS would make a good leader.

 

[Lothian]

Then again, many or most of them will have joined the Brexit Party, though whether there's anything to stop someone joining more than one party is a good question.

Nothing to stop you but I suspect most parties will forbid it in their rules.
Labour banned people in momentum I mean militant, (easy mistake!). Voting for another party apart from labour also gets you expelled so joining one will certainly be a no-no.

 

[The Don]

Nothing to stop you but I suspect most parties will forbid it in their rules.
Labour banned people in momentum I mean militant, (easy mistake!). Voting for another party apart from labour also gets you expelled so joining one will certainly be a no-no.

Unless you're Kate Hoey, her support for the Brexit Party seems to have had no negative consequences

 

[McHrozni]

Then again, many or most of them will have joined the Brexit Party, though whether there's anything to stop someone joining more than one party is a good question.

There was a two-year gap between UKIP becoming irrelevant and Brexit party being formed.

IMO looks like you have a hammer and you're on a nail hunt.

While acknowledging the board is being held together by long, thin bits of metal that look similar to nails.

They could be screws of course, but they're covered and we can't tell with a sufficient degree of certainty.

There has been a strong Eurosceptic wing of the Conservative Party for decades and the membership being predominantly old, white and male are right in the sweet spot for no-deal Brexit support. Conservative supporters broke 60/40 for Leave and IMO it's reasonable to expect that members, who are more Conservative (and conservative) than just supporters will have been even more enthusiastic about Brexit.

I don't think that there has to be any extraordinary explanation for the current opinions of the Conservative Party members involving large numbers joining from UKIP whilst large numbers of "moderate" Conservatives are leaving. Instead IMO it just represents a distillation of the views of the party membership at the time of the referendum.

It's a bit of both, their relative importances are the crux of the debate. Both happened, the question is to what degree. If the 2016 number of 124 thousand members is accurate and if the 2019 number of 160 thousand members is also accurate, then a significant number of people joined recently and they skewed numbers towards the insane options and my hypothesis is the main factor. This depends on a recent and major shift in Conservative party membership, if it happened in 2016-19 it certainly happened due to Brexit and since we know what the result was the only rational conclusion is there was a causal relationship between the two.

If one or both of those numbers are inaccorate and no significant shifts of membership happened, then the shift was mostly or overwhelmingly the distillation you mention and your hypothesis is the main factor. New members joining and old ones leaving had a minor effect in this case.

Both happened to some extent though, it's just a question of scale.

McHrozni