Yes, I am aware of your opinion. The more I think about it, the more unlikely it seems to me. Of course, much of controversy is expected but civil war? Hardly. Killings, seriously object to the jewish culture. If some clashes occur, they will be really marginal.
Zionism is not Jewish culture. If anything it's in the process of killing Jewish culture and assuming its identity. Zionism did not achieve its ends in 1949 and disband as an ideology. Its ends include the Land of Israel, as understood from the Histories. That is not the aim of all Israelis, far from it, but it continues to be the aim of a powerful segment of Israel. That segment was originally motivated by rational, secular nationalism - complete control of the Jordan and the lower Litani were regarded as vital for a viable state - but of late religion has had to be recruited to keep the momentum going. Very, very dangerous. Originally the religious rhetoric was meant to motivate the Christians who made Israel possible. The weird travesty of Judaism displayed in the Gaza Strip this summer is not programmed for compromise.
Then there's the military to think about. Where would they be in a normal, secure state?
What would they be? "Israel is the Army, the Army is Israel". Slogans do come back and bite you on the arse sometimes. The army has become much more professional since the First Intifada, much more Middle Eastern, and has spent a lot of time with the settlers - perhaps more than they have with normal Israelis. The prospect of peace could well lead to a split in the military, perhaps even a coup.
Then there's the Russians, but best not go there. All in all, a civil war is still on my list of most likelies. Assuming some good prospect of a two-state solution, of course, which is seriously hypothetical.
Today, I was reading in The Economist about Israel's miracle in High Techonology. People who do have to lose something they have created, they are very cautius when it comes to conflicts.
Israel is not noted for being cautious about conflicts. Eager to start them, reluctant to end them, yes, but not cautious. Ideology is the problem, not rationality.
Also, note that during the evacuation of Gaza we didn't have any really serious episodes apart from the understandable demonstrations. Gaza was a serious test.
The retreat from Gaza has provided the betrayal, a potent element in civil division. Right up to the last moment the hold-outs were declaring that it wouldn't happen, the Army wouldn't do it, the god would intervene, the Israeli people would intervene. But it happened. Israel turned against them, so it isn't Israel, it's the Anti-Israel. Stir that into a teenage audience and see what happens a few years down the line.
