Cont: Brexit: Now What? 7th heaven...

[catsmate]

With a minority government there's always a chance for everything. In theory just two resignations from either the conservative party or DUP to the independent group could be enough, if all the others hold ranks against Boris. Ten resignations seal his fate, a new election is inevitable.

Mary Lou might develop a spine...

Except that 114 is only 37% of the 313 Tory MPs. To win, Johnson needs to accrue another 43 votes from the 199 MPs who didn't see him as their first choice.

No, the CP membership decide between the two highest scoring candidates.

 

[Information Analyst]

No, the CP membership decide between the two highest scoring candidates.

OK, we're ******, then.

 

[P.J. Denyer]

Besides, that nice Mr Trump said he'd see us right...

Yes, we'll be the 15 year old girl in the pagent changing room of Trumps deal.

 

[The Don]

10 minute Youtube video with one man's view of the 8 Labour MPs who voted against the Labour Party motion a few days ago:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3TOeCKrTIs

 

[a_unique_person]

Funny how old Marxists can morph into libertarians

 

[Jack by the hedge]

<sfx theme from the Dambusters>

Yeah. It's ironic that the side which are in no doubt that they are the patriots, waving their metaphorical union jacks and humming the Dam Busters theme, are the ones happy to destroy the union to get their blue passports. They're almost eager to throw Northern Ireland under the bus, don't care that Scotland will split from the UK and have this movie-simple view that the EU is Germany and Germany are the baddies. They want to re-fight WW2 not to win it, but to live perpetually in a moment where Britain stood alone.

 

[Garrison]

All our politicians seems hopelessly transfixed by the Brexit Party, willing to sacrifice anything if they think it will save their seat.

 

[Nessie]

Yes there is a risk, but Boris Johnson would have a number of things in his favour:

• A newly united Conservative Party whose membership lurve him
• A highly motivated 35%-40% of the electorate who want no-deal and see BoJo as the means to get it
• A Labour Party which is in turmoil
• A Remain movement which doesn't know which way to vote
• A high degree of BoJo brand recognition

I'd call the election if I was in his shoes. I'd be confident of trouncing Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party and the LibDems aren't likely to win enough seats. That's as long as it's clear that BoJo's pro no-deal stance has completely spiked the Brexit Party's guns.



Fair enough but that means that we'd have at least 4 more years of Conservative government at a time when the effects of a no-deal Brexit are being felt - a very small silver lining indeed.

I agree. Johnson, twice elected as London mayor and successful brexit referendum campaigner, has electoral success behind him. I think he can galvanise the Tories who fear oblivion/Corbyn.

I do hope the Tories are the next government, so they can take the hit, especially with a no deal, as reality comes crashing down.

 

[The Don]

All our politicians seems hopelessly transfixed by the Brexit Party, willing to sacrifice anything if they think it will save their seat.

Even though the European elections will IMO be a high water mark for that party, a low turnout and an opportunity to make a protest vote.

 

[The Don]

I agree. Johnson, twice elected as London mayor and successful brexit referendum campaigner, has electoral success behind him. I think he can galvanise the Tories who fear oblivion/Corbyn.

I do hope the Tories are the next government, so they can take the hit, especially with a no deal, as reality comes crashing down.

The problem is that reality will never come crashing down. No matter how bad it gets, the majority of English people will convince themselves that either it's the fault of horrible foreigners and/or it would have been even worse had we been in the EU.

The NHS effectively disappearing - inevitable market forces
A long and deep recession - the EU's fault, and worth the cost
Farmers going out of business due to zero tariff imports - good news for consumers
Businesses leaving the UK - traitors the lot of them

IMO there is literally no combination of outcomes, no matter how dire, that would lead them to think that they made a bad choice and that it was their fault.

 

[Mojo]

Wrong. To get into the last two stage, when the party members get the final say, any candidate needs a third of the MP votes plus one. Boris has already surpassed that number and only has to avoid losing votes in the remaining MP ballots. He's much more likely to increase his vote, unless he says something really stupid (always a possibility with Boris).

Since when has saying stupid things ever lost him votes? The only hole now is that he accidentally says something intelligent, thus alienating his natural support base.

 

[GlennB]

Hilarious TV announcement of the C4 debate in The Grauniad. Seems the writer expected it to be rejected (was he/she drunk? ) but they printed it anyway:

 

[Garrison]

Hilarious TV announcement of the C4 debate in The Grauniad. Seems the writer expected it to be rejected (was he/she drunk? ) but they printed it anyway:

That can't be real...

 

[jimbob]

Hilarious TV announcement of the C4 debate in The Grauniad. Seems the writer expected it to be rejected (was he/she drunk? ) but they printed it anyway:

That can't be real...

Well the author seems to be standing by it:

https://twitter.com/AliCatterall/status/1140215921526620160

He seems to have been asked to take his original tweet down, from the comments to that.

 

[McHrozni]

Yes there is a risk, but Boris Johnson would have a number of things in his favour:

• A newly united Conservative Party whose membership lurve him
• A highly motivated 35%-40% of the electorate who want no-deal and see BoJo as the means to get it
• A Labour Party which is in turmoil
• A Remain movement which doesn't know which way to vote
• A high degree of BoJo brand recognition

I'd call the election if I was in his shoes. I'd be confident of trouncing Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party and the LibDems aren't likely to win enough seats. That's as long as it's clear that BoJo's pro no-deal stance has completely spiked the Brexit Party's guns.

Sounds a lot of what went through the mind (or equivalent) of Theresa May in 2017. But yeah, it could work all right this time, if Remain vote is split between Labour and LibDem and Brexit vote is united behind BJ.

Fair enough but that means that we'd have at least 4 more years of Conservative government at a time when the effects of a no-deal Brexit are being felt - a very small silver lining indeed.

It's still watery, smelly feces all right. But with a silver lining.

McHrozni

 

[McHrozni]

The problem is that reality will never come crashing down. No matter how bad it gets, the majority of English people will convince themselves that either it's the fault of horrible foreigners and/or it would have been even worse had we been in the EU.

The NHS effectively disappearing - inevitable market forces
A long and deep recession - the EU's fault, and worth the cost
Farmers going out of business due to zero tariff imports - good news for consumers
Businesses leaving the UK - traitors the lot of them

IMO there is literally no combination of outcomes, no matter how dire, that would lead them to think that they made a bad choice and that it was their fault.

I'm sure there is a sizable minority of Englishmen who really do have those opinions. It is somewhere in the 20-40% of the electorate, but not more. They were deluded by the promises of the Brexit campaign and have since identified themselves with Brexit - if there is something wrong with Brexit, there is something wrong with them, so of course they will support Brexit, come what may, and claim any and all faults of Brexit are faults of other actors.

It's an emotional argument and reasoning won't work against them. On the upside, I think the people who genuinely can't be convinced of the flaws of their ways are on the low end of the spectrum, perhaps just 15-20% of the electorate. The others can be drawn away at any point with a steady diet of reality. This is based on my personal observations of such issues for the lower boundry of support for emotional arguments of this nature.

The same goes for any such argument - Brexit, Trump, vaccines, 9/11 twoofers, Moon hoax, Flat Eartherism ... all these and other stuff we love to hate in these parts of the internet have a maximum reach of some 15-20% of the public, those who can't be rescued from their dellusions no matter what you do. This point is reached by few, but Brexit and Trump were prolific enough to get there and beyond. Getting below the 15-20% treshold is nigh-on impossible, but reaching it is achievable. Painful perhaps, but achievable.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

Just had a four-page A4 leaflet from the EFDD (the grouping the Brexit Party belongs to) shoved through the door.

It strawmanned a series of Remain arguments and reassured us that a no-deal Brexit would be just fine - without giving any specifics as to why.

If only I had a parrot cage I'd have found a use for it.

 

[McHrozni]

Just had a four-page A4 leaflet from the EFDD (the grouping the Brexit Party belongs to) shoved through the door.

It strawmanned a series of Remain arguments and reassured us that a no-deal Brexit would be just fine - without giving any specifics as to why.

If only I had a parrot cage I'd have found a use for it.

Can you give us a picture? My Norwegian blue parrot is under the weather and needs some extra stuffing, I think this would be perfect. Plus I'd like to see how their propaganda looks like for obscene reasons.

Thanks in advance

McHrozni

 

[catsmate]

Hilarious TV announcement of the C4 debate in The Grauniad. Seems the writer expected it to be rejected (was he/she drunk? ) but they printed it anyway:

Why? It's an accurate summary of the debate.

Live: Britain’s Next PM – The Channel 4 Debate
6.30pm, Channel 4
That the UK is bound for hell in a hand-assisted vehicle, there is little doubt. All that remains is to discover which of these escapees from Pandora’s box will taxi us there; a more wretched collection of dissemblers, idiots, narcissists and people who have mistakenly taken drugs is difficult to imagine under one studio roof, but here we are. An asbestos-clad Krishnan Guru-Murthy meets the contenders before an audience drawn from across this broken isle. God actually help us.
Ali Catterall

 

[The Don]

Can you give us a picture? My Norwegian blue parrot is under the weather and needs some extra stuffing, I think this would be perfect. Plus I'd like to see how their propaganda looks like for obscene reasons.

Thanks in advance

McHrozni

Already recycled I'm afraid.......