Cont: Brexit: Now What? 7th heaven...

[Andy_Ross]

Telegraph journalist and Boris supporter complains to BBC about

Sky News’s Beth Rigby and her editorialising question. Much like yours, shamefully biased.

for asking questions at Boris press conference about some of his past dealings.
Goes onto say

If @BBCNews continues to distort and withhold information from viewers there will be trouble.

 

[GlennB]

Telegraph journalist and Boris supporter complains to BBC about

for asking questions at Boris press conference about some of his past dealings.
Goes onto say

Baby Trump already? Will he soon categorise his total slagging-off of Trump a few years ago as 'fake news'.

 

[ponderingturtle]

Yes, but how can you legislate to avoid the default? What would replace it that might survive a vote? My default is failing to run a 4-minute mile, and no legislation could make me do it even if I were willing.

Make it mandatory to withdraw article 50 if they can not pass a deal.

 

[wobs]

Make it mandatory to withdraw article 50 if they can not pass a deal.

How do you propose to get that through?

 

[wobs]

I've been looking into Leadsom, as she's a candidate for PM. On her wiki pages it reads:

When I came into Parliament, like most people in the country I'd grown up as part of the EU and it's absolutely part of our DNA and I came into Parliament, set up something called the Fresh Start Project, which took hundreds and hundreds of hours of evidence about how the EU impacts on the UK – on everything from immigration to fisheries and so on... During that process I travelled all across Europe with lots of parliamentary colleagues – up to 100 Conservative colleagues supporting this work – to try and get a really decent, fundamental reform of the EU.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrea_Leadsom

Is there a report (or even evidence) for this. Do these Tories have evidence that support their claims about the EU, that we would be better leaving?

 

[ponderingturtle]

My analysis is simple
A no deal Brexit is dead in the water due to numbers in parliament..
Brussels will not renegotiate the Theresa May deal Brexit.
That deal will never get the votes.
Therefore Brexit is in a state of permanent hiatus while business as usual.

Except of course that the EU will not agree to an indefinite extension. And revoking article 50 is also off the table.

 

[McHrozni]

That's a logical way of looking at it, unfortunately that's not the way the British psyche and electorate seem to work

The worse the impact of Brexit and the more dire the outcome, the more likely it is that the "Blitz Spirit" will cut in and rather than losing support, the government will likely gain support and the British people, rather than rejecting a no-deal Brexit will embrace it.

It's called Stockholm complex, but there is a catch: Blitz was not voluntary, the alternative was to let Germany run wild in the continent and ruin the British Empire in the process. Blitz was bad yes, but everyone knew why they had to suffer through.

Brexit is an entirely needless self-inflicted British thing. Half the country is against it and most support comes from people who genuinely bought the lies of Brexit. I doubt it can be equalled to the Blitz. Sure, the British people will say they support the government in the polls due to harsh reality, but this is not about starting an armed uprising.

It is voting again for the people who promised you a free unicorn and got you in a situation that is "not worse than WW2".

Plus the Blitz wasn't that bad in comparison to what was going on elsewhere. Compared to what German towns and cities went through it was almost pleasant - and that was nothing compared to what happened in Russia or Japan. Brexit won't have that.

McHrozni

 

[Vixen]

That's a logical way of looking at it, unfortunately that's not the way the British psyche and electorate seem to work

The worse the impact of Brexit and the more dire the outcome, the more likely it is that the "Blitz Spirit" will cut in and rather than losing support, the government will likely gain support and the British people, rather than rejecting a no-deal Brexit will embrace it.

<sfx theme from the Dambusters>

 

[a_unique_person]

Oh well. You used to laugh at Trump and feel humiliated by the Brexit shambes. Now you have the Brexit shambles and the equivalent of Trump. MBGA!

 

[Puppycow]

It's going to be Boris, isn't it?

They'll go through the motions, but I think the writing is already on the wall.

Boris Johnson tops first ballot in Tory leadership contest

It wasn't even close. 114 to 43 for his closest rival. The only question is, will the "wider Conservative Party" prefer Johnson or whoever else remains on the final ballot?

 

[Puppycow]

Any chance of a vote of no confidence succeeding, to force new elections?

 

[McHrozni]

Any chance of a vote of no confidence succeeding, to force new elections?

With a minority government there's always a chance for everything. In theory just two resignations from either the conservative party or DUP to the independent group could be enough, if all the others hold ranks against Boris. Ten resignations seal his fate, a new election is inevitable.

Will it happen? We don't know.

"They voted for Tony, and yet they now get Gordon, and a transition about as democratically proper as the transition from Claudius to Nero. It is a scandal.
"Why are we all conniving in this stitch-up? This is nothing less than a palace coup, effected by the Brownites, and it is possible only because Tony had run out of road."
-- Boris Johnson, 2007

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

Any chance of a vote of no confidence succeeding, to force new elections?

If Labour cannot get the votes to try and prevent a no-deal Brexit, something that the majority of Conservative MPs are allegedly want to prevent as well (though I think recent events indicate the opposite), then I think their chances of getting a no-confidence motion through are very low indeed and IMO not even worth trying.

With a minority government there's always a chance for everything. In theory just two resignations from either the conservative party or DUP to the independent group could be enough, if all the others hold ranks against Boris. Ten resignations seal his fate, a new election is inevitable.

Will it happen? We don't know.

"They voted for Tony, and yet they now get Gordon, and a transition about as democratically proper as the transition from Claudius to Nero. It is a scandal.
"Why are we all conniving in this stitch-up? This is nothing less than a palace coup, effected by the Brownites, and it is possible only because Tony had run out of road."
-- Boris Johnson, 2007

McHrozni

That was then, this is now. In much the same way that Mitch McConnell used to think that appointing someone to SCOTUS in the final year of a presidency was undemocratic when a Democrat was in the White House but is perfectly fine with the idea if it were to fall to President Trump.

That said, I don't think Labour stand much chance of forming the next government in any case. A Conservative Party under Boris would just have received several months non-stop coverage of the leadership election. Given that a fair chunk of the electorate seem to vote for the party they have heard most of, most recently, regardless of policies I think Boris would be well advised to call a snap election if and when he becomes leader.

If he promises a hard Brexit, the Brexit Party supporters will return to the Conservative fold, he'll get a bunch of support for the Tories from people who recognise him from the telly and Labour will leak support to LibDems because of their pro-Brexit stance, enough to stop Labour getting elected, but not enough to get too many more LibDem MPs.

 

[The Atheist]

It's going to be Boris, isn't it?

Yes indeed. Two Bullingdon Boys this century. This decade even.

Mummy must be so proud.

I believe if you check back, I said he'd be next PM the day May told Parliament she was quitting.

 

[Information Analyst]

It's going to be Boris, isn't it?

They'll go through the motions, but I think the writing is already on the wall.

Boris Johnson tops first ballot in Tory leadership contest

It wasn't even close. 114 to 43 for his closest rival. The only question is, will the "wider Conservative Party" prefer Johnson or whoever else remains on the final ballot?

Except that 114 is only 37% of the 313 Tory MPs. To win, Johnson needs to accrue another 43 votes from the 199 MPs who didn't see him as their first choice.

 

[Samson]

We must deliver Brexit
We must deliver Brexit

Suicide is painless.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4gO7uemm6Yo

 

[ceptimus]

Except that 114 is only 37% of the 313 Tory MPs. To win, Johnson needs to accrue another 43 votes from the 199 MPs who didn't see him as their first choice.

Wrong. To get into the last two stage, when the party members get the final say, any candidate needs a third of the MP votes plus one. Boris has already surpassed that number and only has to avoid losing votes in the remaining MP ballots. He's much more likely to increase his vote, unless he says something really stupid (always a possibility with Boris).

All the opinion polls say that the party members will choose Boris over any other candidate, so again, it seems that the only person who could stop Boris becoming PM is Boris himself.

 

[McHrozni]

That was then, this is now. In much the same way that Mitch McConnell used to think that appointing someone to SCOTUS in the final year of a presidency was undemocratic when a Democrat was in the White House but is perfectly fine with the idea if it were to fall to President Trump.

True. Both should be talked about incessantly, I think.

That said, I don't think Labour stand much chance of forming the next government in any case. A Conservative Party under Boris would just have received several months non-stop coverage of the leadership election. Given that a fair chunk of the electorate seem to vote for the party they have heard most of, most recently, regardless of policies I think Boris would be well advised to call a snap election if and when he becomes leader.

Just like Theresa May did you mean? That worked really well.

If he promises a hard Brexit, the Brexit Party supporters will return to the Conservative fold, he'll get a bunch of support for the Tories from people who recognise him from the telly and Labour will leak support to LibDems because of their pro-Brexit stance, enough to stop Labour getting elected, but not enough to get too many more LibDem MPs.

Indeed, this is not out of the question. Splitting of Labour vote is indeed a real danger. On the other hand, losing two "easiest elections in history" in a row might get Corbyn out of leadership spot permanently, so the silver lining would be there.

It would still be a smelly, squishy turd, just like it was before. But it would have a strand of silver lining, so that's a plus.

McHrozni

 

[McHrozni]

Wrong. To get into the last two stage, when the party members get the final say, any candidate needs a third of the MP votes plus one. Boris has already surpassed that number and only has to avoid losing votes in the remaining MP ballots. He's much more likely to increase his vote, unless he says something really stupid (always a possibility with Boris).

I agree with everything but the last adjective. He has to say something really vote repulsing, but "stupid" isn't the right adjective, he's been saying stupid things for three years straight.

Something that needs another qualifier, besides stupid.

All the opinion polls say that the party members will choose Boris over any other candidate, so again, it seems that the only person who could stop Boris becoming PM is Boris himself.

Yeah, and by some margin. He has majority support in one recent poll.

It really puts democratic deficit in perspective, doesn't it?

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

Just like Theresa May did you mean? That worked really well.

Yes there is a risk, but Boris Johnson would have a number of things in his favour:

• A newly united Conservative Party whose membership lurve him
• A highly motivated 35%-40% of the electorate who want no-deal and see BoJo as the means to get it
• A Labour Party which is in turmoil
• A Remain movement which doesn't know which way to vote
• A high degree of BoJo brand recognition

I'd call the election if I was in his shoes. I'd be confident of trouncing Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party and the LibDems aren't likely to win enough seats. That's as long as it's clear that BoJo's pro no-deal stance has completely spiked the Brexit Party's guns.

Indeed, this is not out of the question. Splitting of Labour vote is indeed a real danger. On the other hand, losing two "easiest elections in history" in a row might get Corbyn out of leadership spot permanently, so the silver lining would be there.

It would still be a smelly, squishy turd, just like it was before. But it would have a strand of silver lining, so that's a plus.

McHrozni

Fair enough but that means that we'd have at least 4 more years of Conservative government at a time when the effects of a no-deal Brexit are being felt - a very small silver lining indeed.