horrifying attack on Jussie Smollett

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theprestige said:
I'd say the simplest explanation is that he and his manager are lying. It requires the least number of people, the least number of events, etc.
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If this is your standard, then the simplest explanation of just about ANY crime report would have to be that the report is a lie.

Alternatively, we might consider that if its a lie we would need a motivation for a lie which seems at least as presented, not to serve anybody's interests too well and would create a considerable risk. We would need at least a few additional events- a phone call coordinating the lie between him and his manager, the additional event and possibly additional people involved in the initial injuries. Aquisition of the noise and fluid. Some as yet undemonstrated thought process that this particular lie with such odd details would be a better cover up/attack on Trumpists/ whatever than a simpler and less falsifiable lie. That's a lot of stuff needed as compared to a pair of bigots.
 
LTC8K6 said:
Well, if the event is a hoax, then the phone call will be in the records as claimed.

A phone call is a good way to add weight to the hoax.
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Seems to be the whole thing got way out of Smollett's control. IMO he thought he could tell a lie and people would sympathise and forget about it. I doubt he thought it through.
 
Cavemonster said:
It isn't hard to imagine good reasons he wouldn't turn over records either. If he at some point called a phone sex line or a suicide hotline for instance. Records can easily be personal in a million ways.



And again, all the records would confirm would be the existence and time of the call that he already told them. If he is being honest then neither phone or records add anything to the case. So not turning either over is fully consistent with him being honest.



There certainly are some red flags, but I would count phone or records among them.
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The thing is, not turning over his records is also consistent with him being dishonest. This is unfortunate, because right now his story has zero corroboration. Not only that, but it has some elements that are consistent with him being dishonest, but not very consistent with him being honest.

What his story really needs right now is some substantive corroboration, and an action from him that is consistent with honesty and not with dishonesty.
 
Cavemonster said:
If this is your standard, then the simplest explanation of just about ANY crime report would have to be that the report is a lie.

Alternatively, we might consider that if its a lie we would need a motivation for a lie which seems at least as presented, not to serve anybody's interests too well and would create a considerable risk. We would need at least a few additional events- a phone call coordinating the lie between him and his manager, the additional event and possibly additional people involved in the initial injuries. Aquisition of the noise and fluid. Some as yet undemonstrated thought process that this particular lie with such odd details would be a better cover up/attack on Trumpists/ whatever than a simpler and less falsifiable lie. That's a lot of stuff needed as compared to a pair of bigots.
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"Why would someone do this?" is really not a good metric by which to judge human behaviour.
 
I think a single broken rib is consistent with a handle bar injury.

I also know that there is a bike sharing rack literally right outside the subway.

My obsession with the scooters is because Detroit is so full of them, but Chicago is full of bike sharing racks.

The Divvy bike rack holds up to 14 bikes, it is right outside the back exit of 2 Illinois Center.

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William Parcher said:
Mike, it's called an alternative hypothesis..........
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When you've shown the need for an alternative hypothesis, we can set about discussing how you propose testing it. At the moment, that "need" appears to me to amount to "I want this attack to be a hoax".
 
MikeG said:
That pile of speculation in your quote fails to account for the witness on the other end of the phone at the time of the attacks who heard the "MAGA" shouts. You're being selective.
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If and when there is evidence of that phone call, then I will change my position accordingly.

Why would you think the police are saying that Smollett is the victim, and not the accused?
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Because he apparently was beaten up. I don’t doubt that.
 
Drewbot said:
.......My obsession with the scooters.......
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You're obsessed with them, but you can't even begin to justify that obsession in relation to this event. Get back to us when you've got plausible answers to this:

MikeG said:
So, we've got no reports yet of witnesses to a scooter crash. We've got no reports yet of a damaged or missing scooter. We've got no reports of him riding a scooter. The police aren't mentioning anything about scooters (indeed, they're saying he is the victim, not a suspect). The scooters are reportedly not available at night anyway. Yet the reason he hasn't handed over his phone records to the police (who could just ask the scooter company for the details anyway) is because he's hiding evidence of having a crash on an electric scooter. It's going to be very difficult to take anything you say seriously ever again.
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I think you'd be pretty brave to try riding a scooter or a bike at 5 degrees.

Especially when the walk you need to make is likely in the 5 minute range.

I do see some Twitter posts talking about a two hour time gap from Subway to apartment, but nothing solid on that.

It seems like we really don't know much about the sequence of events at all yet.
 
baron said:
"Why would someone do this?" is really not a good metric by which to judge human behaviour.
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You need to make that argument to every investigative agency, because they tend to look for motivations as part of their efforts.
 
Supposedly he just got into town that night, so whoever would be targeting him specifically would have needed to know that.

Supposedly went to a bar first, then the Subway, then the friend's apartment.
 
Again we have this weird lopsided skepticism. The fact that no video cameras seem to have recorded his assailants or assault proves it didn't happen. Yet the fact that no cameras recorded him picking up a bike/scooter...
 
Cavemonster said:
You need to make that argument to every investigative agency, because they tend to look for motivations as part of their efforts.
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The point I'm making is that a lack of understanding as to why somebody would behave in a certain way is not a reason to suspect they did not.
 
MikeG said:
When you've shown the need for an alternative hypothesis, we can set about discussing how you propose testing it. At the moment, that "need" appears to me to amount to "I want this attack to be a hoax".
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The leading hypothesis is the original claim which we simplify to "it happened like he says it did." The alternative hypotheses all are variations on "it didn't happen like he said it did and there is some form of hoaxing or lying."
 
LTC8K6 said:
Why do people make ETUFO, alien, and Bigfoot, etc. reports?

None of them saw any such things, and most of them insist they aren't mistaken.
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There are absolutely motivations for all of those claims.

They are discussed in depth in other parts of this forum.

Again we come back to the inconsistency of the critics here. The report that the attackers would say "MAGA Country" makes this claim dubious because that would not be a rational thing to say. But the lack of a rational motivation for concocting an elaborate lie involving multiple people is not an issue because people do weird things.

If you're throwing out rational motivation for Smollett, then NO behavior he suggests from attackers should raise a red flag.
 
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Cavemonster said:
Again we have this weird lopsided skepticism. The fact that no video cameras seem to have recorded his assailants or assault proves it didn't happen. Yet the fact that no cameras recorded him picking up a bike/scooter...
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The one thing that seems to be consistently reported is that the area is loaded with cameras. The police initially thought they'd Shirley have pertinent video because of the camera density.

As for the bike/scooter thing, I think that is trolling.
 
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