Cont: Brexit: Now What? Part 6. Pick up sticks...

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

What would be REALLY funny? May and the Tories lose the No Confidence motion too. Then they will HAVE to go to an election, which they will lose.

If Labour are smart, the first action when they get into government is pull the eject lever on Brexit. Cancel Article 50 it right there. Let everything go back to how it was previously and plan to do Brexit later when "conditions are better". Never mind the bleats from the Fromages of the world. Give them a swift kick in the arse for making your lives miserable the last two years instead.

The justification is that England has demonstrated that it is not the least bit prepared to do any type of Brexit at all right now. It has been a cack-handed almighty ****-up across the board. So what everyone needs to do is settle, then set a sensible course of action, make much better plans, then trigger Article 50 again later when everyone is "ready". Hopefully a LOT later. Like decades later.

There are no opinion polls that show that Labour would win a General Election if it were called now. I think most that I have seen put Labour still trailing the worst Government in living memory by a significant margin and bear in mind that the intricacies of our system mean that Labour would need a decent few percentage points of a lead in votes over Tories to get a majority in seats.

Also bear in mind that Labour are not campaigning on stopping Brexit. They are campaigning on 'we can do Brexit better by coming up with another unicorns and fairies deal'. Corbyn is actually more pro-Brexit than May.

This is something that sticks in my craw regarding Corbynites painting him as a saviour. He is one of the fromages.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Just little reminder: Any deal would be worse then membership. Almost by definition…

Indeed. And this is the nub of the issue.

For those who want to leave the EU, pretty much any deal is worse than leaving with no deal because it will no doubt tie us into obligations and responsibilities to the EU.

For those who want to stay, pretty much any deal is worse than staying because it loses rights and benefits of EU membership.

Of course what the leavers don't seem to acknowledge is that while they see a bright future for us on the other side of the desert the country may not survive the trip intact. They raise some salient points but they don't seem to understand why they are salient. It is likely that the UK would be in the backstop indefinitely. Why? Because the EU are evil and will keep us tied in to their evil clutches as long as they can right? No! Because there is no solution to the border issue in Ireland and nobody has proposed one other than magic technology.

The overriding feeling watching the debate last night is that absolutely NOTHING has changed in 2 and a half years. We are still watching the same arguments play out time and time again. Because reality hasn't changed. And reality is what some of the leavers are arguing against.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Definitely wrong. EFTA won't get GB much at all and they'd have to agree to GB's return.

WTO is not club like EU or EFTA, it is base minimum organization for world trade (and EU is member). GB will still have hard time getting back (already got rejected once last year). And since GB will be negotiating all trade agreements on their own, their negotiating power is exceedingly tiny as opposed to EU. (No more existing concessions and no new offers)

And there is no such thing as "day membership". Not sure where are you getting anything like that. (Closest is EEA or Swiss-like mass of agreements)

Still curious how one would create something better then GB already has. What shape it would have, because so far nobody managed to present such thing...

The only benefit I would see to EEA or EFTA would be as a temporary stopgap for say 5 years. It would allow to disentangle some elements of EU membership while not affecting some of the key things that are stumbling blocks.

In 5 years when the dust has settle we could then revisit the situation and ask a 2nd referendum - should we leave entirely or should we rejoin the EU.

 

[BobTheCoward]

I think the EU should reject an extension. If other countries see it can get extended until the UK gets a deal it likes, then it reduces a risk to leaving. The UK may need to be made an example of.

 

[JoeMorgue]

For those who want to leave the EU, pretty much any deal is worse than leaving with no deal because it will no doubt tie us into obligations and responsibilities to the EU.

For those who want to stay, pretty much any deal is worse than staying because it loses rights and benefits of EU membership.

Which is exactly why some variation of that is probably going to happen. It's classic political compromise, nobody gets what they want.

 

[jeremyp]

An opinion poll on the various options;

https://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/change-britain-poll-dec18/

Canada type deal 29%
Norway type deal 21%
Customs only union 19%
UK to stay full member of EU 17%
Hard brexit no deal 15%

But, 50% are also against May's deal and 35% are for it. Basically, the British public want a new deal, but have no agreement on what it should be.

OK 79% of people don't want a Norway type deal and the other 21% haven't thought it through.

 

[catsmate]

The DUP is against many things

Catholics
Abortion
A hard border
A soft border
No border
Evolution
Fiscal competence
The 21st Century
The 20th Century
Anything after the battle of the Boyne
ETA:Gay rights
The Colour green​

Evolution, geology and science in general.

My view on the earth is that it's a young earth. My view is [it was created in] 4000 BC.

Edwin Poots, MLA for Lagan Valley

You’re telling me that cosmic balls of dust gathered and there was an explosion.
We’ve had lots of explosions in Northern Ireland and I’ve never seen anything come out of that that was good

Mervyn Storey, former education minister.

Certainly not, and there are plenty of other people in this society who don't believe it either.

Mervyn Storey, former education minister when asked if he believed in Darwinism.


Blood donations.

I think that people who engage in high-risk sexual behaviour in general should be excluded from giving blood.

And so someone who has sex with somebody in Africa or sex with prostitutes, I am very reluctant about those people being able to give blood

Edwin Poots, MLA for Lagan Valley


Women doing things outside the home.

Her most important job is wife, mother and daughter.

Edwin Poots, MLA for Lagan Valley on his own leader, Arlene Foster.


Homosexcuality.

I think these sorts of relationships are immoral, offensive and obnoxious.

I am pretty repulsed by gay and lesbianism. I think it is wrong. I think that those people harm themselves and – without caring about it – harm society. That doesn't mean to say that I hate them – I mean, I hate what they do.

Ian Paisley Jr, MP for North Antrim and son of the party's founder.

I have a very lovely psychiatrist who works with me in my offices and his Christian background is that he tries to help homosexuals trying to turn away from what they are engaged in.

And I have met people who have turned around to become heterosexual.

Iris Robinson

The facts show that certainly you don't bring a child up in a homosexual relationship ... that a child is far more likely to be abused or neglected ... in a non-stable marriage.

Jim Wells, former deputy speaker of the Northern Irish Assembly,

Muslims.

I'll be quite honest, I wouldn't trust them in terms of those who have been involved in terrorist activities. I wouldn't trust them if they are devoted to Sharia Law. I wouldn't trust them for spiritual guidance. Would I trust them to go down to the shops for me, yes I would, would I trust them to do day-to-day activities... there is no reason why you wouldn't....Why are you so concerned about Muslims and not poor people like me?

Peter Robinson, former first minister for Northern Ireland.


Climate change.

I don’t care about C0₂ emissions to be quite truthful...I still think climate change is a manmade con.

Sammy Wilson, former MP for East Antrim, and former Northern Irish Assembly environment minister


Rihanna.

[She was in an] inappropriate state of undress....
..If someone wants to borrow my field and things become inappropriate, then I say, ‘Enough is enough’...
I felt Rihanna was in more of a state of undress than a bikini top...Everybody needs to be acquainted with God and to consider his son, the Lord Jesus Christ, and his death and Resurrection

Alan Graham, a DUP alderman for North Down Borough Council

 

[Darat]

I think the EU should reject an extension. If other countries see it can get extended until the UK gets a deal it likes, then it reduces a risk to leaving. The UK may need to be made an example of.

That's a tad counter productive. All the UK need to do is withdraws our letter, so the next day send a new letter and hey presto we have a 2 year extension.

 

[catsmate]

Not necessarily. Using a golf club as an analogy. Depending on how much you play and use the facilities, you may be better off not being a full time member and just paying for day access. Or you may be better off joining the nearby golf club.

The EU is the golf club, for which the UK had full access and had even negotiated a big discount with the rebate.

Norway, Switzerland and Canada are day members of the EU who pay for varying amounts of access to facilities.

The nearby golf club is the WTO, the ability to strike new deals with other countries and organisations such as the Commonwealth. There is another golf club in EFTA.

Day membership and another club could well be better off for the UK. The EU wants to try and make that not the case.

EFTA has pre-emptively blackballed Britain.
The WTO is a green field.

 

[catsmate]

Maybe, plus let 16 years old and above vote and far more remainers go to the polls.

Drag things out for a couple of years and hope for a couple of hard winters? That should change the demographics nicely.

 

[BobTheCoward]

That's a tad counter productive. All the UK need to do is withdraws our letter, so the next day send a new letter and hey presto we have a 2 year extension.

That doesn't seem to be what the judge said when he said the revoking can be unilateral. He did say it had to be in "unequivocal and unconditional decision". I think the same judge would say that it was never revoked in that situation.

 

[jeremyp]

Yet 2nd referendums are bad

The second referendum was bad. Look at the mess it got us into. A third referendum might be the way to get us out of the deadlock situation, but the question will have to be worded really carefully.

 

[catsmate]

The second referendum was bad. Look at the mess it got us into. A third referendum might be the way to get us out of the deadlock situation, but the question will have to be worded really carefully.

"Listen carefully you semi-literate morons. Are you actually stupid enough to want to devastate the UK'c economy for decades?
YES I am an idiot, let's leave the EU.
NO I'm not an idiot."

 

[Ethan Thane Athen]

That is the issue;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46887683

"Here in Brussels, frustration hung in the air. With 73 days to go until Brexit day, Jean-Claude Juncker and European Council President Donald Tusk appealed (once again) for clarity from the UK.
"MPs keep saying what they don't want," fumed one of their colleagues. "They reject this deal. They reject no deal. They need to decide now what it is they will agree to."

They want this magic deal where they don't belong to the EU but still have all the benefits (until they can get even better ones) but none of the responsibility.

Failing that, a return to the days of empire would be good...

What's really frustrating is that the leavers who were sold a lie (as opposed to those that are just idiots who think leaving will magically turn the clock back to before we joined - forgetting things were a bit rubbish even then) still want to leave, even with no deal, because it's all so much fuss and nonsense they just (magic thinking again) want it all over so we can get back to being 'great'. And worse, a fair few remainers don't want another referendum because they are resigned to 'we lost and I'm sick of it, let's just get it done now'.

It's why you don't have referendums on important matters that are complicated - because the majority of people will not spend the time necessary to understand the implications. They will just vote with gut instinct or whatever fantasy story sounded good to them.

 

[jeremyp]

What would be REALLY funny? May and the Tories lose the No Confidence motion too. Then they will HAVE to go to an election, which they will lose.

If Labour are smart, the first action when they get into government is pull the eject lever on Brexit. Cancel Article 50 it right there. Let everything go back to how it was previously and plan to do Brexit later when "conditions are better". Never mind the bleats from the Fromages of the world. Give them a swift kick in the arse for making your lives miserable the last two years instead.

The justification is that England has demonstrated that it is not the least bit prepared to do any type of Brexit at all right now. It has been a cack-handed almighty ****-up across the board. So what everyone needs to do is settle, then set a sensible course of action, make much better plans, then trigger Article 50 again later when everyone is "ready". Hopefully a LOT later. Like decades later.

Consider this. If the government loses the motion of no confidence, they have 14 days to try to get a majority to win a motion of confidence. If they fail to do that, Parliament is then dissolved and a general election held 25 working days later. There are 73 days until hard Brexit.

The time scales will be so tight at the general election that the incoming government will have only two options: hard Brexit or stop Brexit (at least for a while). If the incoming government (don't be too confident that it will be Labour) does not want hard Brexit, they will have to withdraw Article 50 or ask the EU for an extension. Either way, they will probably have a manifesto promise to suspend Brexit which will allow them to ignore the referendum.

Hmm, I started this post to argue why there shouldn't be a general election. I think I've come around to the point of view that there should be one.

 

[Amazer]

I think the EU should reject an extension. If other countries see it can get extended until the UK gets a deal it likes, then it reduces a risk to leaving. The UK may need to be made an example of.

I don't think the UK needs to be made an example of... at the same time I don't see what a (limited) extension would achieve.

Given yesterdays result, minor tweaks to the current agreement aren't going to sway enough MP's to get it through the house. But if May can make a credible plan on how to get this agreement through parliament then I see no reason to deny a limited extension.

 

[Wudang]

But if May can make a credible plan on how to get this agreement through parliament then I see no reason to deny a limited extension.

That "if" is so big it has thousands of smaller "if"s trapped in orbit around it.

 

[jeremyp]

"Listen carefully you semi-literate morons. Are you actually stupid enough to want to devastate the UK'c economy for decades?
YES I am an idiot, let's leave the EU.
NO I'm not an idiot."

My brother's idea for the referendum was that you get ten questions on facts about the EU in a questionnaire and the number you get right is the number of votes you have.

 

[3point14]

haven't thought it through.

Brexit in a nutshell.

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

If Labour were smart we'd know of their plan for Brexit by now.

Not sure I agree with that. To have a plan and let people know what it is is to invite criticism. Because, as you say, there is no good plan. At the moment, Labour can be the people going "see? We're much better than them! Look how bad May's plan is!", rather than "see? May's plan is terrible! But so is ours!"