Cont: Brexit: Now What? Part 6. Pick up sticks...

[Nessie]

Just little reminder: Any deal would be worse then membership. Almost by definition…

Not necessarily. Using a golf club as an analogy. Depending on how much you play and use the facilities, you may be better off not being a full time member and just paying for day access. Or you may be better off joining the nearby golf club.

The EU is the golf club, for which the UK had full access and had even negotiated a big discount with the rebate.

Norway, Switzerland and Canada are day members of the EU who pay for varying amounts of access to facilities.

The nearby golf club is the WTO, the ability to strike new deals with other countries and organisations such as the Commonwealth. There is another golf club in EFTA.

Day membership and another club could well be better off for the UK. The EU wants to try and make that not the case.

 

[Klimax]

Not necessarily. Using a golf club as an analogy. Depending on how much you play and use the facilities, you may be better off not being a full time member and just paying for day access. Or you may be better off joining the nearby golf club.

The EU is the golf club, for which the UK had full access and had even negotiated a big discount with the rebate.

Norway, Switzerland and Canada are day members of the EU who pay for varying amounts of access to facilities.

The nearby golf club is the WTO, the ability to strike new deals with other countries and organisations such as the Commonwealth. There is another golf club in EFTA.

Day membership and another club could well be better off for the UK. The EU wants to try and make that not the case.

Definitely wrong. EFTA won't get GB much at all and they'd have to agree to GB's return.

WTO is not club like EU or EFTA, it is base minimum organization for world trade (and EU is member). GB will still have hard time getting back (already got rejected once last year). And since GB will be negotiating all trade agreements on their own, their negotiating power is exceedingly tiny as opposed to EU. (No more existing concessions and no new offers)

And there is no such thing as "day membership". Not sure where are you getting anything like that. (Closest is EEA or Swiss-like mass of agreements)

Still curious how one would create something better then GB already has. What shape it would have, because so far nobody managed to present such thing...

 

[Aber]

What would be REALLY funny? May and the Tories lose the No Confidence motion too. Then they will HAVE to go to an election, which they will lose.

If Labour are smart, the first action when they get into government is pull the eject lever on Brexit. Cancel Article 50 it right there.

A number of problems with that plan:

Labour are not clearly ahead in the polls
Corbyn scores 20% on best PM polls
A lot of Labour seats outside big cities voted Leave - standing on a cancel Brexit manifesto might lose them

 

[Nessie]

Definitely wrong. EFTA won't get GB much at all and they'd have to agree to GB's return.

WTO is not club like EU or EFTA, it is base minimum organization for world trade (and EU is member). GB will still have hard time getting back (already got rejected once last year). And since GB will be negotiating all trade agreements on their own, their negotiating power is exceedingly tiny as opposed to EU. (No more existing concessions and no new offers)

And there is no such thing as "day membership". Not sure where are you getting anything like that. (Closest is EEA or Swiss-like mass of agreements)

Still curious how one would create something better then GB already has. What shape it would have, because so far nobody managed to present such thing...

It was just an analogy to help explain why many do think they would be better off not in the EU club and would prefer a membership like Norway, or even no membership of the EU at all.

I disagree with those people, I do not think there is a better option than being a member of the EU under our existing terms (in particular not in the Euro, and a big rebate).

I am worried that if we try and cancel and say we want to stay, there may be moves to make us join the Euro and lose the rebate.

 

[Nessie]

A number of problems with that plan:

Labour are not clearly ahead in the polls
Corbyn scores 20% on best PM polls
A lot of Labour seats outside big cities voted Leave - standing on a cancel Brexit manifesto might lose them

Opinion polls only have remain back in a small majority. Another referendum is by no means a foregone conclusion.

If we do have one and it is still leave, at least we know we really do have to leave.

If it is remain, but the likely small majority, we are facing yet more uncertainty and the Brexiters will be fully justified demanding another referendum.

Only a massive majority for remaining would stop that and there is no sign of that happening.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Opinion polls only have remain back in a small majority. Another referendum is by no means a foregone conclusion.

If we do have one and it is still leave, at least we know we really do have to leave.

If it is remain, but the likely small majority, we are facing yet more uncertainty and the Brexiters will be fully justified demanding another referendum.

Only a massive majority for remaining would stop that and there is no sign of that happening.

easily accomplished if you let long-term expats vote.

 

[Nessie]

easily accomplished if you let long-term expats vote.

Maybe, plus let 16 years old and above vote and far more remainers go to the polls.

 

[Andy_Ross]

If Labour has been angling for this all along they should be ashamed. Hell of a way to get yourself elected.

Labour official policy is pro brexit though.

An election will change absolutely nothing.

 

[Andy_Ross]

May knew she would lose weeks and weeks ago.
She has wasted all that time on the inevitable.

 

[DreadNiK]

If it is remain, but the likely small majority, we are facing yet more uncertainty and the Brexiters will be fully justified demanding another referendum.

I'd be fine with best 2/3

 

[P.J. Denyer]

Leaving with no deal is the only actual option left, if we are to leave as agreed in 73 days time;

"If".

No Brexit needs to be back on the table.

 

[Nessie]

May knew she would lose weeks and weeks ago.
She has wasted all that time on the inevitable.

I think she was hoping the loss could be made small, so she could claim it was the least worst option and keep on going. Clearly that is not possible and we have to leave with no deal or ask for more time to do a new deal, which could also involve a general election or another referendum.

 

[Information Analyst]

It has been obvious for a long time that we are getting a 'no deal' Brexit.
there will be no second ref, there will be no extension, no plan 'B' and no revoking of 50.

The glass-half-empty side of me has thought that this was the game plan of certain elements all along, but the glass-half-full side of me hoped that such idiocy could not possibly prevail.

 

[P.J. Denyer]

May knew she would lose weeks and weeks ago.
She has wasted all that time on the inevitable.

The only difference between those weeks and the preceding two and a half years was it's blatancy. The mishandling of this situation has been so bad that it's impossible not to suspect it was deliberate.

 

[Information Analyst]

The justification is that England has demonstrated that it is not the least bit prepared to do any type of Brexit at all right now. It has been a cack-handed almighty ****-up across the board. So what everyone needs to do is settle, then set a sensible course of action, make much better plans, then trigger Article 50 again later when everyone is "ready". Hopefully a LOT later. Like decades later.

The problem there is that the millions manipulated by Dominic Cummings et al into voting leave are a cage that cannot now be un-rattled. Being in Australia you won't be seeing the daily vox pops on TV of borderline angry people blithely demanding, "we should just leave!" These are the people who bought all the false and/or contradictory promises of the Leave campaigners, assured that leaving the EU would be the answer to their lives, which they thought could not get any more **** than they already are. These are people galvanised by lies who still do not understand that what they were sold is unachievable.

 

[Information Analyst]

If Labour has been angling for this all along they should be ashamed. Hell of a way to get yourself elected.

Corbyn has always been anti-EU. A chance at getting to be PM is a bonus.

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

I suspect the Tories would welcome a general election, and would probably also welcome losing said election. Let someone else be in charge while the **** rains down, and then swoop in again next time as saviours.

 

[Nessie]

Corbyn has always been anti-EU. A chance at getting to be PM is a bonus.

His angle could be, OK, we stay in the EU, but without this, that, the next and we pay even less.

 

[McHrozni]

What would be REALLY funny? May and the Tories lose the No Confidence motion too. Then they will HAVE to go to an election, which they will lose.

If Labour are smart, the first action when they get into government is pull the eject lever on Brexit. Cancel Article 50 it right there. Let everything go back to how it was previously and plan to do Brexit later when "conditions are better". Never mind the bleats from the Fromages of the world. Give them a swift kick in the arse for making your lives miserable the last two years instead.

The justification is that England has demonstrated that it is not the least bit prepared to do any type of Brexit at all right now. It has been a cack-handed almighty ****-up across the board. So what everyone needs to do is settle, then set a sensible course of action, make much better plans, then trigger Article 50 again later when everyone is "ready". Hopefully a LOT later. Like decades later.

If Labour were smart we'd know of their plan for Brexit by now.

Corbyn is basically parroting Mogg - we want a better deal, without ever explaining what it would entail. Basically any description of a "better" deal involves being tied closer to the EU, negating any possible upsides of Brexit and making Bremain the obviously better choice.

From the start the options for the UK, were, in descecnding order of quality:
1. Bremain
2. No deal (or minimal deal) Brexit
3. everything else

Anything that keeps significant ties to the EU with customs union and whatnot also erases any possibility of UK benefitting from Brexit in any way. In other words all options that aren't either Bremain or No deal are just exercises in damage control. UK gets hammered in all of them but at least one of the amputations was below the elbow, to use a medical equivalent.

However Corbyn, always a moron, managed to screw up the finest possibility in a generation to construct and establish a firm Labour majority for a decade or more, one that would enable him (or at least those that share his views) to remake the country in their image.

Instead, despite all the incompetence and bad news around the government, Labour is within the margin of error of the Conservative party. That's the true shambles of Brexit right there.

McHrozni

 

[ohms]

Instead, despite all the incompetence and bad news around the government, Labour is within the margin of error of the Conservative party. That's the true shambles of Brexit right there.

Indeed. That speaks volumes as to the current state of British politics.