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2018 mid-term election

LSSBB said:
The Suburbs? Orange County is a legendary bastion of Republican Party. It's loss is emblematic.
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Orange County is the Suburbs personified.
I am not denying that the loss of once was once the bastion of Concervatism in California is a landmark, but I don't think that conflicts with the GOP having suffered disaster in the suburbs last Tuesday.
 
JoeMorgue said:
It was inevitable. Urban/Rural has always been the big divide in America, not the other things we chatter on about. The "Suburbs" have always been the swing demographic.

There are no Red States and Blue States. America is a huge sea of sparsely populated Red with scattered islands of densely populated Blue. The country side still votes red in the most liberal state in the Union and the cities still vote Blue in the most conservative.

Suburbs are the last great expanse of people who haven't aligned with a tribe yet.
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A lot of political commentators saying that by losing the suburbs, Trump tore down the GOP wall around the house.
Basically,a lot of the gerrymandered GOP SUperdistricts were formed by chopping off GOP leaning Suburbs from the Democratic Urban areas and combining them with solidly red rural districts. When, because of Trump, the surburbs went blue, the wall collapsed.
 
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Stacko said:
About that:

[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/picture.php?albumid=1331&pictureid=11950[/qimg]
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This is staggering. Orange County is and has been easy pickings for Republicans for DECADES. To have every single district go Democrat shows just how awful Trump has been for Republicans.
 
acbytesla said:
This is staggering. Orange County is and has been easy pickings for Republicans for DECADES. To have every single district go Democrat shows just how awful Trump has been for Republicans.
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It's worth noting that the only remaining GOP member of congress from New England is Susan Collins by virtue of not being on the ballot.
 
acbytesla said:
This is staggering. Orange County is and has been easy pickings for Republicans for DECADES. To have every single district go Democrat shows just how awful Trump has been for Republicans.
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There's a lot of local patriotism at play. As our resident libertarian oft tells us, many people think of themselves as citizens of their state, first. Trump's been ignoring and bashing CA for two years. The wildfires thing was post election but it's indicative... the ******** wasn't aware that the district he was accusing of mismanagement was a Republican seat. IMHO when someone pointed out to him that it was a Trump Scale Seven on the YouReallyReallyLoveMe meter, he became all thoughts and prayers and we're sending money so hold on.

The Dems haven't really learned (how many of us use Alabama or Mississippi as catchall metaphors for bigotry), but are starting to figure it out in Texas. Do not slander the residents/citizens of the state just because sixty-whatever per cent support the opposition! You'll lose even more of your forty per cent.
 
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midterms are always a shift against the Party in the White House: Republican losses aren't permanent and voters will 'regress to the mean' as Nate Silver likes to say, when the GOP starts to regress to its mean of a Conservative, not alt-right party.
 
The Great Zaganza said:
midterms are always a shift against the Party in the White House: Republican losses aren't permanent and voters will 'regress to the mean' as Nate Silver likes to say, when the GOP starts to regress to its mean of a Conservative, not alt-right party.
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That's recognized. But what His Trumpiness has to consider is that the inspired voters, and there were many, were out there as an Anti-Trump vote, and the buffoon wasn't even running. How many Trumpettes stayed home? He pretty much did his "now is the time..." call to battle and I suspect he's not going to inspire that many more of them in 2020, and can't win back the ones who've cottoned to the con he worked. With all the recounts and pending results I haven't seen final votes in several states, but it's noteworthy for both sides that some states went Blue, in total vote - PA and AZ being the two most prominent, but that the over-representation of Red congressional districts in Ohio is not just gerrymandering - the state voted red by total population. I think Florida is going to turn out the same.

Gerrymandering has nothing to do with the EC. With only those couple of exceptions, the total statewide vote wins the EC. The Dems have to keep the discontent factor going because sufficient people hate Trump that what's required is to get them out to vote. If they turned out in droves to merely elect Congresspersons who are going to help stop Trump, how many will turn out in 2020. I personally believe that number far exceeds the Trump loyalists who didn't turn out last week.

And... we've got two years for the idiot to alienate even more people.
 
I grew up in Orange County. You bet it was Republican. Its demographics are also changing from a sea of mostly white faces when I lived there (late 60's, 70's) to mostly brown faces.
 
RIP, California GOP: Republicans lash out after midterm election debacle

Politico said:
In the wake of a near-political annihilation in California that has left even longtime conservative stronghold Orange County bereft of a single Republican in the House of Representatives, a growing chorus of GOP loyalists here say there’s only one hope for reviving the flatlining party: Blow it up and start again from scratch.
That harsh assessment comes as Republicans survey the damage from the devastation of a “blue tsunami” in California which wiped out five GOP-held House seats — with more still threatened — while handing every statewide seat and a supermajority to the Democrats in both houses of the state legislature this week.

The latest blow came Thursday, when Democrat Katie Porter, an UC Irvine professor, defeated Republican Rep. Mimi Walters in a district which represents the beating political heart of Orange County.

“I believe that the party has to die before it can be rebuilt. And by die — I mean, completely decimated. And I think Tuesday night was a big step,’’ says veteran California GOP political consultant Mike Madrid. “There is no message. There is no messenger. There is no money. And there is no infrastructure.”
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Stacyhs said:
I grew up in Orange County. You bet it was Republican. Its demographics are also changing from a sea of mostly white faces when I lived there (late 60's, 70's) to mostly brown faces.
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Still 62% white according to Wikipedia. The next big demographic is 33% Hispanic (of any race, so some of this group is counted in the white category too), followedy by 17% Asian.
 
Trebuchet said:
Exactly. For some reason the Republican reaction to losses for some years now has been to move further to the right. McCain and Romney were widely derided for being insufficiently conservative.
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In fairness, both parties have the same debate over and over again. Be centrist to get moderate voters, or move left/right to motivate the base. That's been the subject of discussion for decades now.

Giving up the apathetic moderates for the motivated outliers worked pretty well for the Republicans until this election. Now we'll see if the Dems do the same or not.
 
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Stacyhs said:
I grew up in Orange County. You bet it was Republican. Its demographics are also changing from a sea of mostly white faces when I lived there (late 60's, 70's) to mostly brown faces.
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I wouldn't say mostly at all. But it is diversifying.
 
crescent said:
In fairness, both parties have the same debate over and over again. Be centrist to get moderate voters, or move left/right to motivate the base. That's been the subject of discussion for decades now.

Giving up the apathetic moderates for the motivated outliers worked pretty well for the Republicans until this election. Now we'll see if the Dems do the same or not.
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This is a nutshell is why I'm hoping for mass adoption of automatic voter registration and vote at home or other things that make voting easier for everyone. Get participation up, and those moderates might not be so apathetic anymore.
 
crescent said:
In fairness, both parties have the same debate over and over again. Be centrist to get moderate voters, or move left/right to motivate the base. That's been the subject of discussion for decades now.

Giving up the apathetic moderates for the motivated outliers worked pretty well for the Republicans until this election. Now we'll see if the Dems do the same or not.
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I think, to over simplify quite a bit, the problem is we have two kinds of "Centrist" in America and two big kinds of "issues."

For the big, broad issues that aren't a single discrete thing; the economy; defense; domestic policy; the general "feel" of "how is the country is doing" level... the centrist here are generally made up of people who, to some varying degree, don't agree with the two big party's stance(s) on one or more of the issues.

Now with the "hot button" single point of disagreement issues; abortion, death penalty, stem cells, Deep Dish vs Thin Crust... these "centrists" are made up both people who don't agree with the two major parties (although these tend to be more simple "Yes or No" questions without as much nuance as the broader issues) and, and I think this number is probably bigger, people who don't see these things as a big deal.
 
Stacyhs said:
I grew up in Orange County. You bet it was Republican. Its demographics are also changing from a sea of mostly white faces when I lived there (late 60's, 70's) to mostly brown faces.
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Funny how those two go together.

Gee I wonder if that's why the Dems here want illegal aliens voting, porous borders and sanctuary cities? Almost seems like some sort of plan, hmmm.

Thanks for clearing that up. I mean they sure seem insistent on bringing illegals here - it makes total sense now.
 
mgidm86 said:
Funny how those two go together.

Gee I wonder if that's why the Dems here want illegal aliens voting, porous borders and sanctuary cities? Almost seems like some sort of plan, hmmm.

Thanks for clearing that up. I mean they sure seem insistent on bringing illegals here - it makes total sense now.
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You realize the vast majority of brown people are already in the country legally as citizens and can move where they would like to, right?
 
mgidm86 said:
Funny how those two go together.

Gee I wonder if that's why the Dems here want illegal aliens voting, porous borders and sanctuary cities? Almost seems like some sort of plan, hmmm.

Thanks for clearing that up. I mean they sure seem insistent on bringing illegals here - it makes total sense now.
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Er.. Do you realise that illegal immigrants can't vote?
 
mgidm86 said:
Funny how those two go together.

Gee I wonder if that's why the Dems here want illegal aliens voting, porous borders and sanctuary cities? Almost seems like some sort of plan, hmmm.

Thanks for clearing that up. I mean they sure seem insistent on bringing illegals here - it makes total sense now.
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Citation needed. Seriously, you sound like Trump. Go ahead and cite even ONE dem here who has stated a desire for any of those things. I'll wait.
 
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