2018 mid-term election

[Distracted1]

I'm really amused by the notion that talking about how some monkeys are articulate really might be a dog whistle, but it's not "legitimate racism" if it was part of some elaborate trap.

When one stretches what was actually said so far out of shape in order to stick a label on someone, it makes the distorter seem determined to stick that label everywhere.

Again, you make my point for me.

 

[acbytesla]

The only evidence that it is a "dog whistle" is the insistence by some that it is.

Insisting that Gillums use of the loaded term "pigs" is just as un-falsifiable of a claim, that is why I posted it.

It took what? 20posts? To go from an observation that we would be better served not making "RACISM!!" the be-all end-all rallying cry of our party (to the point of requiring any potential supporter to "show their papers" by labeling a potentially racist statement as definitely a racist dog whistle) to :" you are a poser ".

You make my point for me.

Have you forgotten that in order to win a (statewide) election we actually need to get more votes than the opponent?

Oh. You think I made your point for you?

Sorry, you did that for yourself.
NO ONE...
ABSOLUTELY ******* NO ONE
is saying that racism is the 'end all rallying cry' or you have to show your papers. You don't have to agree that Desantis was probably blowing a dog whistle. You don't have to agree that racism is still a problem.

There is no such thing as a monolithic party consensus. You don't have to agree with every party plank....I sure as hell don't. I find it strange that from a white person's perspective that this faux-issue would sway your party allegiance when in my view this is really just a distraction.

 

[Distracted1]

Oh. You think I made your point for you?

Sorry, you did that for yourself.
NO ONE...
ABSOLUTELY ******* NO ONE
is saying that racism is the 'end all rallying cry' or you have to show your papers. You don't have to agree that Desantis was probably blowing a dog whistle. You don't have to agree that racism is still a problem.

There is no such thing as a monolithic party consensus. You don't have to agree with every party plank....I sure as hell don't. I find it strange that from a white person's perspective that this faux-issue would sway your party allegiance when in my view this is really just a distraction.

If you were to review our discussion, you would not find me stating that my party allegiance was swayed.
What you might find, instead are statements by me suggesting that the party's in this race are pretty much set already in who they are going to vote for, and further, that both parties are already thoroughly motivated in the current political climate.

That leaves a battle for those few who are "undecided".

You seem to feel that "DeSantis is a racist!, and his voters are racists!, because it is impossible to use the term 'monkey it up' " is a rallying cry that will draw the larger share of the undecideds our way.
I am concerned that the opposite is true, and such an assertion will push more of them away.

Cute dog, BTW. Some kind of Dalmation mix?

Edited for clarity.

 

[acbytesla]

If you were to review our discussion, you would not find me stating that my party allegiance was swayed.
What you might find, instead are statements by me suggesting that the party's in this race are pretty much set already in who they are going to vote for, and further, that both parties are already thoroughly motivated in the current political climate.

That leaves a battle for those few who are "undecided".

You seem to feel that "DeSantis is a racist!, and his voters are racists!, because it is impossible to use the term 'monkey it up' " is a rallying cry that will draw the larger share of the undecideds our way.
I am concerned that the opposite is true, and such an assertion will push more of them away.

Cute dog, BTW. Some kind of Dalmation mix?

Edited for clarity.

Hell, I don't know if Desantis is a racist, but it sure appears as if he is using racist tactics. And I don't see the Gillum campaign using it as a rallying cry either. If you see what happened you can see that the press etc could see the dog whistle and naturally asked him about it. Also a PAC is clearly making racist robocalls on the behalf of Desantis.

So to say that Gillum and the Dems are making race an issue in this campaign is patently false. But I'm afraid it's going to be a huge issue in this election as the GOP will find subtle ways to make it the issue all the time claiming innocence and accusing the Dems or playing the race card.

As for the dog, I don't know. Looks like Marmaduke to me.

 

[Distracted1]

Hell, I don't know if Desantis is a racist, but it sure appears as if he is using racist tactics. And I don't see the Gillum campaign using it as a rallying cry either. If you see what happened you can see that the press etc could see the dog whistle and naturally asked him about it. Also a PAC is clearly making racist robocalls on the behalf of Desantis.

So to say that Gillum and the Dems are making race an issue in this campaign is patently false. But I'm afraid it's going to be a huge issue in this election as the GOP will find subtle ways to make it the issue all the time claiming innocence and accusing the Dems or playing the race card.

As for the dog, I don't know. Looks like Marmaduke to me.

The GOPs attempts to make it an issue only work if the Dems consistently charge at the red curtain.
We might be better served leaving the fringe cases to wither of their own accord. Minority voters are perceptive enough to know whether they feel they are being insulted or not.

 

[acbytesla]

The GOPs attempts to make it an issue only work if the Dems consistently charge at the red curtain.
We might be better served leaving the fringe cases to wither of their own accord. Minority voters are perceptive enough to know whether they feel they are being insulted or not.

I don't disagree. But I don't see it not being made an issue.

 

[Brainster]

Some more indications that the Democrats are going to shoot themselves in the foot again by overreaching in search of the Lost Tribe:

Democrats nominated Jealous, a former NAACP president, to face Hogan. He’s a dream candidate for progressives: a Bernie Sanders acolyte who advocates for single-payer health insurance, free college tuition, and the legalization of marijuana among other liberal priorities. He defeated a relatively moderate, business-friendly opponent in Prince George’s County executive Rushern Baker III, making the argument that the only way to defeat the popular Hogan was by rallying the base across a liberal state like Maryland.

So far, that strategy hasn’t panned out. Republican-aligned groups have spent millions tagging Jealous as an extremist, targeting his single-payer health care proposal. He dropped an expletive at a Washington Post reporter who asked if he was a socialist at a press conference. Public polls show his negatives unusually high for a first-time candidate, and he’s struggling to consolidate support in majority-minority Baltimore City and Prince George’s County. Jealous hasn’t raised money to match his national profile, and is running low on campaign cash, according to new campaign finance filings.

There are others:

The public’s willingness to embrace progressivism will be tested in at least three other pivotal governor’s races in November. In an upset, Florida Democrats nominated Tallahassee mayor Andrew Gillum, another Bernie Sanders ally who would be the first African-American governor of the state. In Arizona, Democrats chose David Garcia, an educator vying to be the first Hispanic governor in over 40 years and whose immigration views are well to the left of typical statewide candidates. And in Georgia, former state legislative leader Stacey Abrams has become a national icon for her strategy of reaching out to new voters instead of relying on persuading suburbanites. In all these races, Democrats are hoping to change the electorate with a message that rallies liberal nonwhite voters to the polls even if it risks losing some typical swing voters.

 

[Craig4]

The point of the obvious dog whistle was to get DiSantist to start talking about race. The one thing a black candidate in a mixed race political contest can't talk about is race. It turns off independent and swing voters. You have to talk about issues impacting the entire state. Gillum wants to paint DiSantis as a black/civil rights issue only politician. To do that he needs DiSantis to respond to his racist comments.

DiSantis needs to dismiss the attempt at race baiting for what it is and talk about wage stagnation, school crowding, flood insurance, red tides and infrastructure. This is stuff Floridians care about.

I realized after writing this that I'd reversed the names. DiSantis is the dirty Trump supporter bigot and Gillum is the black, Democratic opponent. I regret the error.

 

[Slings and Arrows]

I realized after writing this that I'd reversed the names. DiSantis is the dirty Trump supporter bigot and Gillum is the black, Democratic opponent. I regret the error.

That wasn't your only error. But hey, a rose by any other name...

 

[LSSBB]

Some more indications that the Democrats are going to shoot themselves in the foot again by overreaching in search of the Lost Tribe:



There are others:

Yes. Uber-Progressives may attract attention, they don't attract a lot of campaign cash. Or necessarily much marketing savvy.

 

[kellyb]

Yes. Uber-Progressives may attract attention, they don't attract a lot of campaign cash. Or necessarily much marketing savvy.

And then sometimes the "centrists" like Clinton have both and still lose to the Republican.

 

[Craig4]

That wasn't your only error. But hey, a rose by any other name...

The Republican is a Trump supporter that makes him racist by definition. You can be a racist and not support Trump but you can't support Trump and not be a racist.

 

[LSSBB]

And then sometimes the "centrists" like Clinton have both and still lose to the Republican.

The Republicans have been double guarding against Clinton for years, piling accusation after accusation. Not a good data point for a general theory.

 

[Foolmewunz]

Some more indications that the Democrats are going to shoot themselves in the foot again by overreaching in search of the Lost Tribe:



There are others:

I'm not sure I agree that Maryland was winnable. You have a distance-yourself-from-Trump popular GOP governor. His personal charisma with the voters is pretty solid. Jealous has about a zero on the charm meter and Mumbles could enlighten us, but I imagine but the NAACP is not half as relevant in the black community as their own community/city leaders. Quick, name the last three heads of the NAACP? His programs are progressive, not socialist, but he has no government track record and a populist needs to be popular, which he ain't.

Florida and Georgia? The Republicans, in those cases, have made those "possible". It's not the Dems that are possibly losing winnable races but the GOP doing their best to give them a shot. Florida's state politics are pretty conservative and have been getting more so. Georgia? The fact that the Dems are in the race is because the GOP nominated the "It's His Turn" guy. Not only deplorable but a corrupt deplorable at that.

 

[kellyb]

Jealous has about a zero on the charm meter

I've been following him for years, and always found him highly charismatic.

 

[kellyb]

The Republicans have been double guarding against Clinton for years, piling accusation after accusation. Not a good data point for a general theory.

Shut up and stop harshing my mellow!

 

[Mumbles]

I'm not sure I agree that Maryland was winnable. You have a distance-yourself-from-Trump popular GOP governor. His personal charisma with the voters is pretty solid. Jealous has about a zero on the charm meter and Mumbles could enlighten us, but I imagine but the NAACP is not half as relevant in the black community as their own community/city leaders. Quick, name the last three heads of the NAACP? His programs are progressive, not socialist, but he has no government track record and a populist needs to be popular, which he ain't.

The NAACP's more relevant lately, and Jealous is well-liked as far as NAACP heads go, but...

First, compared to groups like BLM, they aren't much to younger people. Jealous was the start of turning that around, and actually relatively well-known after helping pull the NAACP back into protests that weren't stupid and getting certain local chapters under control (LA chapter, I'm looking at you intently!), but that's about all. As far as charisma goes, he's got a lot, but not at Obama levels.

Hogan is notably apart from Dolt 45 - from refusing to even attend the 2016 RNC convention, to mitigating the federal tax hike, to letting the AG go after Cheeto Benito's various white supremacist schemes. He's done reasonably well at crisis management (although not so good at long-term prevention, I'll note - but there's a lot that went into c flooding twice in under 2 years), and has the usual incumbent advantage in good economic times. Even some dem legislators are outright endorsing him over Jealous.

...and a large part of this is that they're working for veto-proof majorities, and gerrymandering the GOP out of power at every other level. a Dem governor can put pressures on them that a republican governor can't, just by using party apparatus. SO having Hogan there kinda works for them, too.

And the major lefty out of touch candidate wasn't Jealous (who is fairly mainstream as far as most issues go), it was Chelsea Manning, and I don't think Sen. Cardin even bothered mentioning her by name before winning about 80% of his primary vote.

 

[Foolmewunz]

I've been following him for years, and always found him highly charismatic.

The NAACP's more relevant lately, and Jealous is well-liked as far as NAACP heads go, but...

First, compared to groups like BLM, they aren't much to younger people. Jealous was the start of turning that around, and actually relatively well-known after helping pull the NAACP back into protests that weren't stupid and getting certain local chapters under control (LA chapter, I'm looking at you intently!), but that's about all. As far as charisma goes, he's got a lot, but not at Obama levels.

Hogan is notably apart from Dolt 45 - from refusing to even attend the 2016 RNC convention, to mitigating the federal tax hike, to letting the AG go after Cheeto Benito's various white supremacist schemes. He's done reasonably well at crisis management (although not so good at long-term prevention, I'll note - but there's a lot that went into c flooding twice in under 2 years), and has the usual incumbent advantage in good economic times. Even some dem legislators are outright endorsing him over Jealous.

...and a large part of this is that they're working for veto-proof majorities, and gerrymandering the GOP out of power at every other level. a Dem governor can put pressures on them that a republican governor can't, just by using party apparatus. SO having Hogan there kinda works for them, too.

And the major lefty out of touch candidate wasn't Jealous (who is fairly mainstream as far as most issues go), it was Chelsea Manning, and I don't think Sen. Cardin even bothered mentioning her by name before winning about 80% of his primary vote.

Thanks, guys. I imagine I'll see more of him in coming weeks/months and I admit I've had limited exposure to him. Were I a Maryland voter, I'd be voting for him. I was really just addressing the article's assumption that the Maryland State House should be a Democratic slam dunk. I'll take my previous assumptions with a grain of salt.

 

[Mumbles]

Thanks, guys. I imagine I'll see more of him in coming weeks/months and I admit I've had limited exposure to him. Were I a Maryland voter, I'd be voting for him. I was really just addressing the article's assumption that the Maryland State House should be a Democratic slam dunk. I'll take my previous assumptions with a grain of salt.

That's what I figured you were mostly addressing. And you were largely correct in what you said - I'm definitely voting for Jealous, but Hogan was the easy favorite right from the start. He's popular in his own right, it's an off-presidential year election, the state's doing pretty well, he's the incumbent. Everything here favors him.

 

[Brainster]

Thanks, guys. I imagine I'll see more of him in coming weeks/months and I admit I've had limited exposure to him. Were I a Maryland voter, I'd be voting for him. I was really just addressing the article's assumption that the Maryland State House should be a Democratic slam dunk. I'll take my previous assumptions with a grain of salt.

I don't think I or the guy who wrote the article thought the race was a slam dunk. The article makes it clear that Hogan, the sitting Republican governor, is quite popular (although potentially vulnerable in a blue wave election). The point is that Jealous made an explicit argument for the Lost Tribe in his campaign (see the part that I highlighted in my post). The claim is that by rallying the base, they could somehow overcome Hogan's popular appeal. This is the Lost Tribe theory in a nutshell, that there is a group of voters who have disengaged but will suddenly turn out in droves if a candidate would only espouse policies sufficiently far to the left.

Rush Limbaugh and many other yakkers on the Right buy into it 100% as well, although of course they claim that the Lost Tribe consists of a bunch of conservatives wandering in the wilderness.