Bitcoin - Part 2

Status
Not open for further replies.
ponderingturtle said:
who is increasing their bitcoin holdings now and why? Why hasn't it crashed deeper?
Click to expand...
Simple answer:- speculators. The smart ones know that the price is determined solely by sentiment, which comes in waves.

For one reason or another the sentiment may turn sour and people sell, causing the price to drop even more as panic sets in. A clever 'investor' watches this wave develop and buys when it is close to the trough. As the 'bear' wave ends sentiment turns positive and the price increases, causing others to join in for fear of missing out. Of course this doesn't last either, so the cycle repeats.

An experienced 'investor' knows that the price is driven by people's emotions, so he isn't just watching the price. He's also looking at volume, reading news reports, and checking social media to see where the sentiment is going. A big investor can also manipulate sentiment with well timed announcements and large transactions.

Day to day prices jump up and down 'randomly', so buying and selling on the spot price is just gambling. But over a longer period the waves become predictable. Bitcoin currently has one wave with a period of about 1 week, and another of about 2 months. A smart 'investor' can make consistent money by synchronizing his transactions to these waves. The only problem is that the tide is going out, so the waves are getting smaller. Eventually they may become so weak that 'investing' in bitcoin is not profitable enough.

One reason Bitcoin hasn't crashed completely is that professional speculators are still getting enough out of the game to stay in it. When will it end? Perhaps never. It all depends on how long they can keep the waves of sentiment going. But so far Bitcoin has followed the typical behavior of a bubble, and with no fundamentals to give it real value there is no reason to believe it won't continue down that path.
 
The_Animus said:
But you're welcome to use his TA or your own and become rich and famous
Click to expand...
I don't think people become rich and famous either by using his TA ... or by investing in cryptos after the peak price of the bubble had passed.
 
psionl0 said:
Why? Is it different this time?
Click to expand...
There are two "times" in any speculative bubble:

Time before the peak
Time after the peak

I think the peak has passed. The loss of two thirds of the December value over a period of general decline of half a year is an indicator of this, and I wouldn't risk my shirt to bet that the decline will be reversed and the bubble will reinflate.
 
Craig B said:
In December if I said, you're going to lose all your money if you buy more Bitcoin. But you only lost two thirds of your money over six months? Am I psychic? Or is the optimist who says it'll carry on going up and you stand to make millions. Is the optimist psychic?

Neither. But people who said "don't buy any more" were predicting along the right general lines, weren't they?
Click to expand...

We didn't have a statement that said don't buy anymore. We had a statement of a specific price.
 
Craig B said:
There are two "times" in any speculative bubble:

Time before the peak
Time after the peak

I think the peak has passed. The loss of two thirds of the December value over a period of general decline of half a year is an indicator of this, and I wouldn't risk my shirt to bet that the decline will be reversed and the bubble will reinflate.
Click to expand...
You didn't answer the question.
 
BobTheCoward said:
We didn't have a statement that said don't buy anymore. We had a statement of a specific price.
Click to expand...
if you concluded from the specific prediction that you shouldn't buy more Bitcoin that would have been right, even if the specific prediction was exaggerated.
 
Craig B said:
The question was, is it different this time? Which "time" do you think we're in?
Click to expand...
Do you think you are fooling anybody? You are always saying that "this time it is different" (the price will never reach its previous high).

So far, the scenario is unfolding exactly the same way as it did after its high in December 2013 and you are repeating the same posts that were made 4 years ago.
 
psionl0 said:
So far, the scenario is unfolding exactly the same way as it did after its high in December 2013
Click to expand...
No, it isn't.

2013 Bitcoin Bubble Fueled by Suspicious Trading Activity on Mt. Gox
Willy controlled many different accounts. According to the study, Willy appeared roughly seven hours after Markus became inactive.

The data cited by the report indicates that Willy would purchase 10–19 bitcoins at a time until an amount equal to $2.5 million worth of bitcoins had been purchased. Willy would then make a new account and repeat the process...

Willy acquired 268,132 bitcoins in exchange for $112 million. Much like Markus, Willy did not actually pay for his bitcoins.

“Hence, together, these unauthorized traders ‘acquired’ around 600,000 bitcoins by November 2013,” says the study. “Perhaps unsurprisingly, this is very close to the number of bitcoins (650,000) that Mt. Gox claimed to have lost when it folded in early 2014.”
Click to expand...

The spike in 2013 was caused by fraudulent activity on a single exchange. Without this fraud the price probably would have continued to languish until some other event caused interest to spike.

That scenario is quite different from the bubble that peaked last year, which was fueled by the general public becoming aware of bitcoin and opportunities for speculation. It has now achieved media saturation so there is little room for expansion, and it should (if sentiment doesn't turn universally sour) settle down to a more realistic price just like similar 'fiat-busters' such as gold and silver have done.

Craig B may have been wrong about last time (and who could blame him for not knowing the real cause of that spike), but this time it really is different. The difference isn't in the price fluctuations (which so far are following a similar pattern) but in the environment. In 2013 bitcoin was still a largely unknown curiosity. In 2017 interest peaked when it hit the mainstream and attempted to become a conventional commodity, an event which is unlikely to occur again. Different scenario, different result.

If you just looked at the price variations you might think they are (even 'exactly') the same, but that would be making the same mistake as people who rely on Technical Analysis. The price is ultimately determined by people's emotions, so any prediction based purely on price is iffy. The whole World now knows about bitcoin, interest has peaked, and sentiments are becoming more realistic. Numerically bitcoin could still go to the moon, but emotionally it has jumped the shark. Bitcoin has run out of the resource it needs to go higher - not technology, not electricity, not capital - suckers.
 
Roger Ramjets said:
The spike in 2013 was caused by fraudulent activity on a single exchange. . . . . .

That scenario is quite different from the bubble that peaked last year, . . . .
Click to expand...
It is interesting to see that you suddenly don't consider Bitfinex and its associated "tether" currency to be fraud anymore. It has been claimed by some to be the primary driver of the December price peak.
 
psionl0 said:
Do you think you are fooling anybody? You are always saying that "this time it is different" (the price will never reach its previous high).

So far, the scenario is unfolding exactly the same way as it did after its high in December 2013 and you are repeating the same posts that were made 4 years ago.
Click to expand...
You are stating that the price will again exceed its December high, and that people would be well advised to buy into Bitcoin now, because it will go up eternally like a collectible Ming Dynasty vase.

I would hesitate to give such advice. How long do you think a current investor should be prepared to wait before this recovery takes place?
 
Craig B said:
if you concluded from the specific prediction that you shouldn't buy more Bitcoin that would have been right, even if the specific prediction was exaggerated.
Click to expand...

If you conclude something that isn't the prediction, and that turns out to be right, thst doesn't say anything about he wrong prediction other than it is wrong.
 
Mycroft said:
Except pricing is still in dollars, or another local currency, and the bitcoin exchanged for the product is whatever the equivalent is.
Click to expand...
It is likely to stay that way indefinitely unless a government officially accepts it as a unit of accounting and that is unlikely to happen while ownership is concentrated in a handful of private hands.
 
Exactly the Same as Last Time?

Bitcoin's Price Declines Over Q2 for First Time on Record
In the case of bitcoin's Q2 price movements, it turns out history didn't repeat.

As the three-month period came to a close this week, the final figures indicate bitcoin fell 8 percent according to CoinDesk's Bitcoin Price Index (BPI), snapping a 7-year win streak for the market's leading cryptocurrency...

History shows, the moving average is a make or break level for BTC. For instance, BTC's last bear market ended with an upside break (marked by a square) of the 75-week EMA at the end of 2015 and what followed was a two-year long bull market.

So, while there is a reason to be optimistic, bulls are cautioned against being too ambitious as the long-term descending trendline is still intact.
Click to expand...
But don't worry Bitcoiners, this technical analysis doesn't mean anything. Instead listen to Wall Street shills gurus, they know what they are talking about!

Wall Street’s Tom Lee Says Bitcoin Price to Hit $22K by Year’s End, ‘Can Reach $25K’
Financial market research firm Fundstrat’s Tom Lee defended his position that Bitcoin (BTC) could trade at anywhere from $22,000 to $25,000 by the year’s end, in two CNBC interviews Thursday, July 5.

Lee, a notorious Bitcoin bull, is famous for his prediction in January that Bitcoin would hit $25,000 by the end of 2018, later saying in March it would reach a staggering $91,000 by 2020.

Speaking on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” segment Thursday morning, Lee at first appeared to have somewhat toned down his bullish outlook by saying that “it’s not out of the question that [BTC] could be over the $20,000 by the end of the year.” Lee based his rationale for the new estimate on the historic correlation between Bitcoin’s price and mining costs, which he says by the end of the year will be around $9,000 per coin mined.
Click to expand...
To get there in the next 6 months it will have to go up like a rocket, exactly the same as last time! Don't miss out, buy Bitcoin now!!!
 
Roger Ramjets said:
Bitcoin's Price Declines Over Q2 for First Time on Record
As the three-month period came to a close this week, the final figures indicate bitcoin fell 8 percent according to CoinDesk's Bitcoin Price Index (BPI), snapping a 7-year win streak for the market's leading cryptocurrency...
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
:sdl: :sdl: :sdl: You have really outdone yourself in your desperate search to find somebody who disagrees with me. This time you uncovered somebody who read the price chart with a cane! :sdl: :sdl: :sdl:

The "7-year win streak" started in September 2015 and ended in December 2017. Prior to that, the price had been in free fall for about 21 months (the current losing streak is only 8 months old).
 
psionl0 said:
:sdl: :sdl: :sdl: You have really outdone yourself in your desperate search to find somebody who disagrees with me. This time you uncovered somebody who read the price chart with a cane! :sdl: :sdl: :sdl:

The "7-year win streak" started in September 2015 and ended in December 2017. Prior to that, the price had been in free fall for about 21 months (the current losing streak is only 8 months old).
Click to expand...
The "current losing streak" followed on from a crazy speculative bubble that dominated the financial press, and made millionaires out of some lucky punters. These things only happen once in the life of an object of speculation. Let me put it another way. I really will be surprised if the price goes up again and booms pass the December level on the way up fast, making people stupendously rich as it does so. If that happens, I will be surprised. And I will admit I was wrong about the popping of the bubble.

Now you tell me in what circumstances, asssuming they come to pass, you will admit that your optimism about the price has been refuted. I will say you are right when the price booms past $19000 on the way up fast. When and why will you come to the conclusion that it will or won't? In other words, may I take it that your 21 months is a limit, and if it doesn't happen by then it's not going to, in your opinion?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom