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Brexit: Now What? Part IV

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Information Analyst said:
Your position appears to boil down to, "the EU should mop up the milk the UK has spilled, and then give the UK a free new full bottle (a pint, obviously)."
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IMO it's typical of the Brexit attitude of "We voted for change, it's your responsibility to ensure it's a positive one".
 
ceptimus said:
While the EU are only prepared to dictate rather than negotiate, any policy short of outright capitulation is unrealistic. The only remaining option, unless the EU change their stance, is a no deal Brexit.
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The golf club analogy, again:

I will not pay for club membership, but I want one of the following:

1. Free golf
or
2. Access to the bar and restaurant.

The club is refusing both options, yet it's the club's fault for being intransigent? But you've prepared the ground quite well and will be able to blame any negative outcome on the EU. There's a name for that fallacious kind of reasoning, and I think you know what it's called.
 
The Don said:
Not really, they're still arguing about the basic approach - does the UK intend enter into the transitional period with a fixed end point or will it be open-ended.
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That's not really a basic approach, it's where the (approximately) three-way bargaining process has brought things to. The end point seems fairly clear to me and is essentially no final exit from the EU customs union. I think the net influence behind the "No Irish border" objective is several times higher than that behind the leave / hard brexit one (barring technological magic that allows them to co-exist).

And this calculation is nothing more than comparing the size of the coalition that supports no Irish border (IE almost everyone) with that that supports hard brexit. (The latter is approximately a small subset of the former. At least I have not found a single Brexiteer who has said that re-establishment of an Irish north-south border is OK, has anyone else?)
 
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Francesca R said:
That's not really a basic approach, it's where the (approximately) three-way bargaining process has brought things to. The end point seems fairly clear to me and is essentially no final exit from the EU customs union. I think the net influence behind the "No Irish border" objective is several times higher than that behind the leave / hard brexit one (barring technological magic that allows them to co-exist).

And this calculation is nothing more than comparing the size of the coalition that supports no Irish border (IE almost everyone) with that that supports hard brexit. (The latter is approximately a small subset of the former. At least I have not found a single Brexiteer who has said that re-establishment of an Irish north-south border is OK, has anyone else?)
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Why does everyone seem to think that brexit supporters were so dumb to think that they were not voting for a hard irish boarder just because all the ones they meet are that dumb? After all brexit means brexit.
 
ponderingturtle said:
Why does everyone seem to think that brexit supporters were so dumb to think that they were not voting for a hard irish boarder just because all the ones they meet are that dumb? After all brexit means brexit.
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Because It was not well reported. None of the foreseeable consequences of Brexit were well reported. Every single problem that has arisen, especially the Irish border issue should have been raised by competent journalists at every turn. This did not happen.

People used to representative democracy were only used to being presented with viable options.

One of the tabloids, on the morning after the vote, listed what we in the UK had lost (or were going to lose) and the over-riding response to that was "Why didn't anyone mention this before the vote"
 
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ponderingturtle said:
Why does everyone seem to think that brexit supporters were so dumb to think that they were not voting for a hard irish boarder just because all the ones they meet are that dumb? After all brexit means brexit.
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Can you cite a brexiteer (politician) saying they think an Irish border is the best solution?

BTW my spell check changes brexiteer to beech tree. So behind the times.
 
3point14 said:
Because It was not well reported. None of the foreseeable consequences of Brexit were well reported. Every single problem that has arisen, especially the Irish border issue should have been raised by competent journalists at every turn. This did not happen.

People used to representative democracy were only used to being presented with viable options.

One of the tabloids, on the morning after the vote, listed what we in the UK had lost (or were going to lose) and the over-riding response to that was "Why didn't anyone mention this before the vote"
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The Irish border issues were raised pre-vote but were dismissed as Project Fear. We were told that post Brexit the current border arrangements could be carried forward . We were also told that we could leave the customs union to negotiate our own trade deals. The suggestion was we could have both when in reality there has always been a need to choose which we want.

May has done a great job so far of not making any difficult decisions. At some point she will have to and I expect the public to be annoyed with the result.

The signs are we are going to remain in the customs union, the single market, with free movement of people all under the review of the ECJ while paying more that we did previously. On the plus side we wont have to bother ourselves with European Parliament elections as we will have no say in the setting of the rules we will need to abide to.
 
Francesca R said:
The end point seems fairly clear to me and is essentially no final exit from the EU customs union.
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It's not that clear as there are claims that December's agreement committed to Northern Ireland staying in the customs union AND the single market. This seems to be inconsistent with the DUP's "no border in the Irish Sea" position, so I think we are some way from a deal.
 
Lothian said:
The signs are we are going to remain in the customs union, the single market, with free movement of people all under the review of the ECJ while paying more that we did previously. On the plus side we wont have to bother ourselves with European Parliament elections as we will have no say in the setting of the rules we will need to abide to.
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Not too bad. I knew project fear was over-egging it.
 
Lothian said:
The signs are we are going to remain in the customs union, the single market, with free movement of people all under the review of the ECJ while paying more that we did previously. On the plus side we wont have to bother ourselves with European Parliament elections as we will have no say in the setting of the rules we will need to abide to.
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I simply cannot see May surviving a Conservative Party conference on that platform.
 
Aber said:
It's not that clear as there are claims that December's agreement committed to Northern Ireland staying in the customs union AND the single market. This seems to be inconsistent with the DUP's "no border in the Irish Sea" position, so I think we are some way from a deal.
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It is not inconsistent with the rest of the UK also remaining in the Customs union and single market.

Of course they don't want to say this so plainly, so they are describing it at "aligning tariffs" however that is a euphemism for remaining in the Customs union and Single market.
 
Lothian said:
The signs are we are going to remain in the customs union, the single market, with free movement of people all under the review of the ECJ while paying more that we did previously. On the plus side we wont have to bother ourselves with European Parliament elections as we will have no say in the setting of the rules we will need to abide to.
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I'll take that as the second best possible outcome.
 
Aber said:
It's not that clear as there are claims that December's agreement committed to Northern Ireland staying in the customs union AND the single market. This seems to be inconsistent with the DUP's "no border in the Irish Sea" position, so I think we are some way from a deal.
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It would actually be useful if the DUP as a whole was onside with McCausland in preferring a N-S border to a NI-GB one (assuming that is the bloke's position).
 
Aber said:
I simply cannot see May surviving a Conservative Party conference on that platform.
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I agree, but what are the alternatives ?

  • NI staying in the customs union and EEA. Hard border in the Irish Sea
  • Hard Brexit and collapse of the GFA

I expect that the Conservatives to choose the latter :(.
 
3point14 said:
Because It was not well reported. None of the foreseeable consequences of Brexit were well reported. Every single problem that has arisen, especially the Irish border issue should have been raised by competent journalists at every turn. This did not happen.
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Again obvious problems everyone saw them and chose to vote anyway. They know about at contentious border and vote for hard borders, why is that not a mandate?
 
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