Brexit: Now What? Part IV

[Andy_Ross]

The EU doesn't need our money. They want the best trade deal for the EU, which is actually the UK following Norway or possibly Switzerland, which is also a not too bad deal for the UK either.

This was what several Brexit campaigners said was what they wanted in the leave campaign, but that seems to have been forgotten.


Meanwhile we also know that the Civil Service have come up with three scenarios for the situation immediately after Brexit. Option 1 is muddle along. Option 2 is food and fuel shortages and the government having to arrange emergency flights to deliver medicines. Option 3 is apparently "Armageddon" but they think that they can probably avoid option 3.

It doesn't seem worth it for some blue passports made in France, when some EU member states also have blue passports

Don't forget keeping foreigners out!

 

[jimbob]

Freight Transport Association

https://fta.co.uk/media/press-releases/2018/june/brexit-britain-on-the-road-to-nowhere-says-fta

Brexit Britain on the road to nowhere, says FTA
Tuesday 05 June 2018

With three weeks to go until crunch Brexit talks in Brussels, the UK’s leading logistics trade body says that its confidence in Government’s ability to deliver a ‘frictionless’ Brexit that will ‘Keep Britain Trading’ with the EU is fast collapsing. The Freight Transport Association (FTA) is one of the UK’s largest and most influential industry groups, and speaks for the whole of the logistics industry.

As James Hookham, the organisation’s Deputy Chief Executive explains, the lack of progress on the industry’s key demands of government for a trade agreement, means that those in the industry charged with maintaining the country’s supply chain after Brexit are left with no means by which to operate effectively:

“Of the eight demands made in FTA’s list of essentials to ‘Keep Britain Trading’ issued at the beginning of the year, not a single one has been progressed,” he says. “Details of whether or not the country will have a Transition/Implementation Period are still unclear, there is still no decision on what Customs arrangements we will have from March 2019 onwards.

“We keep getting told that all food and agricultural exports to the Continent and Ireland will be checked at EU ports - but there is nowhere to check them, and the system to check them does not exist. We still don’t know if we will be able to employ the 43,000 truck drivers in the UK that are nationals from another member state – that’s 13% of our driver workforce! There is no clarification on whether UK drivers’ qualifications are to be recognised, so they could well be barred from driving their own vehicles on the Continent.

“But the real show stopper is that, under European law, unless an agreement is reached, there will only be 103 international haulage Permits to cover the 300,000 journeys made by British trucks to Europe each year. The logistics industry is being asked to decide who would get a Permit to Drive if there are not enough to go around – in effect, being asked to destroy the businesses of its international haulage members.”

As Mr Hookham continues, with less than 300 days to the UK’s scheduled departure from the European Union, and no progress made on trade talks, the lack of clarity over key issues is eroding the country’s invaluable trading relationships with businesses overseas, and foreign businesses based in Britain:

“All these potential barriers were thrown up by the Government’s decision to leave the Customs Union and the Single Market. In return we were promised that ‘frictionless’ trade would continue through special agreements reached with the EU. Trade talks haven’t even started. In the event of a No Deal Brexit it will be the logistics industry, which operates 24/7 365 days a year, that will have to pick up the pieces of the failure of politicians to agree. No doubt we will face the unwarranted ire of consumers and businesses if goods cannot be delivered on time.

“The industry’s frustration with the lack of progress is building daily. Logistics businesses simply cannot answer their customers’ questions about how they will move goods after Brexit. Manufacturers and retailers are losing faith and fear that post-Brexit Britain is at real risk of becoming nothing more than a series of road blocks at our ports and airports.

“What is really making our members angry is that these real, legitimate concerns are simply being dismissed by some members of the Government on the basis that it will not be in the EU’s interests to impose them. This is a reckless attitude to take and is playing chicken with crucial parts of the British economy and the livelihoods of the seven million Britons in the industry. All the evidence is that the other EU member states are recruiting hordes of border officials to enforce their rule book, regardless of the cost to their businesses and consumers. Expecting economic realism to kick in after 50 years of top-down bureaucracy is a bit of a stretch from UK politicians who have always slammed the EU for its obsession with rules and bureaucracy. The reliance on the other side blinking first is hanging the logistics industry out to dry.

“To date, all the focus has been on what the new Customs arrangements will be. But this misses the point. The real issue will be the lack of permits to allow the trucks carrying the goods to travel to the Continent in the first place. This is the trucking equivalent of the threat to the aviation sector because of the ending of Europe-wide agreements when the UK leaves the Single Market.”

Mr Hookham is adamant that Britain’s supply chain requires decisions now, in order to provide the required logistics support to the nation’s business community, but is frustrated that no decisions are being made:

“Over the past year, we have continued to push the Government on what needs to be agreed to ‘Keep Britain Trading’ after Brexit. Yet with less than ten months to go until the country is set to leave the EU, we have nothing agreed and there is every prospect of another flunked summit at the end of this month. Kicking the can down the road to October may be easy for politicians but by then the Christmas delivery season will be in full swing for the logistics sector and another four months of planning time will have been lost. Our members want to make things work, but our hands are tied. With “Armageddon” scenarios apparently being developed by Whitehall to cope with a No Deal Brexit next March even the Government seems to think it may be all over!”

FTA is hosting a one day conference, entitled Keep Britain Trading, on 20 June 2018 at 1 Great George Street, London SW1 to enable logistics operators to discuss the arrangements which need to be implemented for a smooth Brexit. Speakers will include Robin Walker MP from the Department for Exiting the EU, as well as Karen Wheeler, Director General of the Cross Government Border Delivery Group. To find out more, and book a place, please visit https://fta.co.uk/events/preparing-leaders-in-logistics-for-brexit

 

[Garrison]

I don't think that even this is completely true, certainly at the highest level. I still believe Boris and Gove wanted a slim defeat in order to stage a party political coup. The actions of many other leaders of the Leave campaigns also suggests they "didn't want a victory, they just wanted to fight" as they line up foreign passports, residencies etc.

I'm quite certain that's what Farage and UKIP wanted. After a defeat they could rail against the 'fixed' referendum and maybe pick up a few more percentage points at the polls and some more Tory defectors, victory doomed them to oblivion.

May I suspect was a true brexiteer, gambling that loyalty to the leader even over a platform she didn't agree with was the best shot at power and worked out for her, in a 'careful what you wish for' way.

 

[Amazer]

Thank you. Yes there are two issues. The GFA, and Brexit. The EU insisted on the linkage. I do not think that the EU has provided a solution; except in saying that the UK has to remain part of the common travel / trade area and subject to the ECJ. Essentially the EU is saying that the UK can check out of the EU but it can never leave.

At most the EU has told the UK that it needs to decide what it wants. Does it want to uphold the GTA and seperate NI from the rest of the UK (backstop solution) and thus honouring the English decision to leave the EU, CU and SM. Does it want to uphold the GTA and maintain the UK union which would require the whole of the UK to go for the Norway option. This has been repeatedly rejected by the UK. Or does it want the hardest Brexit of all, ditch the GTA but which would require a hard border between the UK and the EU (and thus between NI and the RoI).

The Good Friday agreement is between the UK and the Republic of Ireland, the EU is not party to the agreement. Ireland as part of the EU is entitled to participate in the negotiations between the UK and the EU, but the EU should not be party to negotiations between RoI and the UK. I would argue that at most the EU should have said that the RoI like all other members of the EU ultimately would have a veto on any agreement. The RoI could then have said that they would veto any agreement if no agreement over the GFA could be reached. It is not up to the EU to say whether any arrangements on the border between RoI and the UK meet the GFA that is a decision that the RoI and the UK need to come to.

Since the RoI has been given veto power when it comes to this issue... I think it's safe to say that the decision whether the GFA is upheld lies with Ireland. Just because the EU is negotiating on behalf of Ireland (and the other 26) doesn't mean that RoI has no say in the matter.

Besides, the GFA was made possible because both the UK and RoI were in the EU at the time. I don't think the possibility of either party leaving the EU was considered at the time. It does mean that the EU is a stakeholder too though.

 

[Planigale]

At most the EU has told the UK that it needs to decide what it wants. Does it want to uphold the GTA and seperate NI from the rest of the UK (backstop solution) and thus honouring the English decision to leave the EU, CU and SM. Does it want to uphold the GTA and maintain the UK union which would require the whole of the UK to go for the Norway option. This has been repeatedly rejected by the UK. Or does it want the hardest Brexit of all, ditch the GTA but which would require a hard border between the UK and the EU (and thus between NI and the RoI).


Since the RoI has been given veto power when it comes to this issue... I think it's safe to say that the decision whether the GFA is upheld lies with Ireland. Just because the EU is negotiating on behalf of Ireland (and the other 26) doesn't mean that RoI has no say in the matter.

Besides, the GFA was made possible because both the UK and RoI were in the EU at the time. I don't think the possibility of either party leaving the EU was considered at the time. It does mean that the EU is a stakeholder too though.

This sounds a little racist picking on one 'ethnic' group. The decision was made by the UK population as a whole. Some people in all parts of the UK and of varying ethnicity voted one way and some others. You might just as well blame the proletariat for not listening to the educated classes.

The UK does not need nor should it go for the Norway option. There was no Norway option when Norway negotiated its relationship with the EU. There was no Swiss option when Switzerland negotiated its relationship with the EU. There will be a UK EU relationship, this will be unique and it will not be the same as Canada, the same as Turkey, the same as Israel, the same as Norway or the same as Switzerland. All these countries have their own bespoke relationship with the EU. It is foolish tp think that the EU can only slot new international relations into a preformed model. This is a multibillion pound negotiation for that money it will be bespoke not off-the-peg.

 

[McHrozni]

I'm quite certain that's what Farage and UKIP wanted. After a defeat they could rail against the 'fixed' referendum and maybe pick up a few more percentage points at the polls and some more Tory defectors, victory doomed them to oblivion.

I concur.

May I suspect was a true brexiteer, gambling that loyalty to the leader even over a platform she didn't agree with was the best shot at power and worked out for her, in a 'careful what you wish for' way.

That's one of the two plausible scenarios. However, I dislike it, because it assumes Brexiteers didn't have a plan, at all. It assumes none of them, from Theresa May down, even considered Brexit and didn't even attempt to do so in the next two years, even after they triggered it last March. There's incompetent, then criminally incompetent, then you're a danger to society incompetent, then this. It's just too much, in my humble opinion.

As as result I prefer the other solution, that she doesn't even want Brexit and is actually engaged in sabotage. The plot finally started to work, the public opinion is slowly turning against Brexit, a necessary precondition for it to be reversed. Once the public opinion truly turns it will be comparatively easy to put a stop to the charade. Harmful, certainly, but not nearly as harmful as the armageddon scenario of the hardest Brexit of them all.

Her actions in the next year or so will tell us which is true.

McHrozni

 

[Aber]

Meanwhile we also know that the Civil Service have come up with three scenarios for the situation immediately after Brexit. Option 1 is muddle along. Option 2 is food and fuel shortages and the government having to arrange emergency flights to deliver medicines.

It is clear in the Sunday Times article that the "food and fuel shortages" are from a scenario where the EU slows down the flow of its exports to the UK, effectively a form of blockade. While civil servants plan for all eventualities, this is not under the UK's control.

 

[Craig B]

This sounds a little racist picking on one 'ethnic' group. The decision was made by the UK population as a whole. Some people in all parts of the UK and of varying ethnicity voted one way and some others. You might just as well blame the proletariat for not listening to the educated classes..

We know bevolution is treated as a farce. Keep reminding us please, so that the voters in the smaller countries will be moved to proceed to the complete dissolution of the Union.

 

[Amazer]

It is clear in the Sunday Times article that the "food and fuel shortages" are from a scenario where the EU slows down the flow of its exports to the UK, effectively a form of blockade. While civil servants plan for all eventualities, this is not under the UK's control.

Not a blockade but a slowdown is predictable result of suddenly having a border that wasn't there before.

Sent from my SM-J700F using Tapatalk

 

[Planigale]

We know bevolution is treated as a farce. Keep reminding us please, so that the voters in the smaller countries will be moved to proceed to the complete dissolution of the Union.

So remind me how did people in wales vote? Or do smaller countries only count when they agree with your prejudice? So we can say 2/4 home nations voted one way or the other; the tie break went to the overall majority. Does it make it better if we say that it was those working class Northern English that voted for Brexit dragging the snobby middle class southerners along?

 

[Amazer]

This sounds a little racist picking on one 'ethnic' group. The decision was made by the UK population as a whole. Some people in all parts of the UK and of varying ethnicity voted one way and some others. You might just as well blame the proletariat for not listening to the educated classes.

I don't think it's racist to refer to the inhabitants of England as English...YMMV.


Sent from my SM-J700F using Tapatalk

 

[The Don]

So remind me how did people in wales vote?

Yes, Wales is an odd one. We voted for Brexit 52.5% to 47.5%, a recent poll shows that Remain is only just the most popular view - but well within polling error and yet there is a significant majority in favour of remaining in the customs union. Nearly 60% also think that they'd be better off remaining in the single market.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/majority-people-wales-think-would-14562856

So perhaps, as with so many of these things, it comes down to what the post-Brexit situation turns out to be. If it results in the UK leaving the single market then Welsh opinion may change.

Or do smaller countries only count when they agree with your prejudice? So we can say 2/4 home nations voted one way or the other; the tie break went to the overall majority. Does it make it better if we say that it was those working class Northern English that voted for Brexit dragging the snobby middle class southerners along?

Not really, and that doesn't particularly stand up to scrutiny in any case. The voting patterns seemed to be more urban (or possibly urbane ) vs. suburban and rural. Plenty of middle class southerners in leafy green belt towns voted to Leave, plenty of northern working class people in cosmopolitan northern cities voted to Remain.

Any Brexit will IMO provide extra impetus for Scottish independence, any Brexit which threatens relationships with Ireland and the GFA will put pressure on Northern Ireland and a hard Brexit may cause the Welsh to rethink our relationship with the EU.

 

[Klimax]

Remember the MA; address the argument not the arguer.

That's what I did... Or do you self-identify with your argument?

ETA: And "you" was for Leavers, not you personally. (Forgot how bloody ambiguous English can be)

 

[Francesca R]

Their plan is too get us to sign up to a binding international treaty that guarantees our payments before finalizing negotiations on trade.

The EU could have made financial settlement a red line issue last December instead of allowing the fudge it allowed (so that the next phase of negotiations could start). Does not comport with your hypothesis really.

 

[Information Analyst]

This sounds a little racist picking on one 'ethnic' group. The decision was made by the UK population as a whole. Some people in all parts of the UK and of varying ethnicity voted one way and some others. You might just as well blame the proletariat for not listening to the educated classes.

The majority of English and Welsh voters chose Remain, while the majority of Scottish and NI voters chose Leave, but still substantial numbers in each part of the UK votes differently. It is also a fact that English Leave voters outnumbered Welsh, Scottish, and NI voters of either choice.

It was always entirely possible that a big enough English Leave majority could over-ride Remain majorities - or even complete unanimity - in the other three, or that big enough Remain majorities in the other three could have over-ridden a lower English Leave majority. As it was, we got the divisive mish-mash that actually happened.

 

[jimbob]

Yes, Wales is an odd one. We voted for Brexit 52.5% to 47.5%, a recent poll shows that Remain is only just the most popular view - but well within polling error and yet there is a significant majority in favour of remaining in the customs union. Nearly 60% also think that they'd be better off remaining in the single market.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/majority-people-wales-think-would-14562856

So perhaps, as with so many of these things, it comes down to what the post-Brexit situation turns out to be. If it results in the UK leaving the single market then Welsh opinion may change.




Not really, and that doesn't particularly stand up to scrutiny in any case. The voting patterns seemed to be more urban (or possibly urbane ) vs. suburban and rural. Plenty of middle class southerners in leafy green belt towns voted to Leave, plenty of northern working class people in cosmopolitan northern cities voted to Remain.

Any Brexit will IMO provide extra impetus for Scottish independence, any Brexit which threatens relationships with Ireland and the GFA will put pressure on Northern Ireland and a hard Brexit may cause the Welsh to rethink our relationship with the EU.

Yes, that included most of Dad's friends to his bemusement and sadness.

 

[Lothian]

They want (and need) our money. Their plan is too get us to sign up to a binding international treaty that guarantees our payments before finalizing negotiations on trade. Then they will reject all compromise positions on trade ensuring a no deal Brexit but with us still having to pay.

I think you are sadly mistaken there will be a deal and it will be super fantastic for us because they are sooo desperate.

IDS says the EU is DESPERATE for trade arrangement - and UK has BIG threat to make it happen. said a “no deal” Brexit would be a “disaster” for the Brussels bloc but warned that option is still on the table for the UK.

Liam Fox says securing a free trade deal with the European Union should be “one of the easiest in human history”

John Longworth, Leave Means Leave co-chair says we hold the aces, and the EU is desperate for a deal.

David Davis said the EU is desperate for a deal with the UK.

Lord Digby Jones says Lord Digby Jones: Europe Are DESPERATE For A Deal With Us

 

[Lothian]

The majority of English and Welsh voters chose Remain, while the majority of Scottish and NI voters chose Leave,

Other way round, the delusional ****wits were the majority in England and Wales

 

[Craig B]

So remind me how did people in wales vote? Or do smaller countries only count when they agree with your prejudice? So we can say 2/4 home nations voted one way or the other; the tie break went to the overall majority. Does it make it better if we say that it was those working class Northern English that voted for Brexit dragging the snobby middle class southerners along?

Who's not counting Wales? I'm not demanding anything other than an informed vote on the terms on which we will leave, before that step is taken.

It is you who are saying the votes of Wales have no significance. And that anyone who disagrees with the outcome of the referendum vote is a racist and a snob.

Brexit is testing the devolution settlement to destruction, as it is threatening the agreements that have ended bloodshed in NI.

 

[3point14]

Brexit is testing the devolution settlement to destruction, as it is threatening the agreements that have ended bloodshed in NI.

It's almost like it's a *********** awful idea!

Lawson knows it, he wants to be sure he can still live in France.
Farrage knows it, he wants to be sure his children have EU passports
Chris the Kiwi knows it, he wants to be sure he has Maltese citizenship
Redwood knows it, he advises his clients not to invest in the UK
Oh, and Aarron's just a ****. And denies Russian involvement in his life when not even asked about it...


If we knew nothing else at all, the above would be a fair indication that what we're about to embark upon is one of the most ill advised ventures the UK has proposed in my lifetime.

I have never been more pleased in my life not to have had children. They would have been poor and therefore, in a post exit from the EU world, **********.