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Cont: JFK Conspiracy Theories VI: Lyndon Johnson's Revenge

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The only known cause for this is a skipping needle/stylus when recording or, when making a copy.

And here is an example of your persistent misuse of language to cover logical fallacies. Needle-skip is not a "known cause." It is your hypothesized explanation. An alternative hypothesis requires evidence to establish it as superior to the null hypothesis established by scientists: the "known" phenomenon called cross-talk. Prove your case, and stop trying to browbeat your critics.
 
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A step in the right direction.
You admit the only distinguishing criteria was a loud noise at distance, and you admit they are indistinguishable, outside the coincidence of timing, from louder noises.
The BBN listed five criteria before even looking at the oscilloscope graphics in the laboratory:

1. The number of echo patterns had to be around 10 given that there was 5 buildings around Dealey Plaza = 5 facades + 5 corners (refractions).

2. Any echopattern would have an expected duration of around one-quarter to one-half second, given the dimensions of Dealey Plaza (500 ft wide) and the speed of sound.

3. There had to be at least three suspect patterns given it was at least three gunshots.

4. The suspect patterns would have to fall in a sequence of no less than four-and-a-half seconds (the minimum time that the Oswald rifle could be fired, cycled and refired three times) and no more than 15 seconds (the total time that the presidential limousine was on Elm Street).

5. Any such sequence of suspect patterns would have to occur within one minute either side of 12:30 p.m. by the dispatcher's clock, as that was how close the clocks were supposed to be synchronized.

Any issues with this?

By necessity, if the microphone was not at a specific location, where the echoes would be timed differently, due to differing distances, then the interpretation of the pulses is invalid.
Yes. And?

If the synchronisation of the timing is out by a few seconds (let alone an entire minute) the results no longer match the rifle shots and could be anything.
Yes. And?

We know also, from the paper, that despite you attempts to multiply numbers to fit your argument,
What numbers have I multiplied to fit what argument? Be specific, or retract.

that if the microphone was in the one spot where it all fits, that there was total of 5% chance that any or all of the pulses had been misidentified.
Wrong. The four identified rifle shots from behind the limo had a binary correlation between 0.6 - 0.8 which give each one of them at least 95% of being secured as such. The shot from in front at the picket fence, and who had the additional sonar analyzes made on it, was secured with P = 1/100 000 for being something else than a rifle shot from said fence.

On top of this is the topographical order in the data. 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. If the patterns were, lets say, random statics, it should have been all over the place.

This is Scientific proof of five rifle shots, if such a thing ever existed.

Which brings us to the unfortunate fact that we can not show a microphone to be in the right place, at the right time.
Not direct photographic evidence, correct. But:

1. Inference from the existing photographic record show that McLain was in position directly before and after the shooting, that he could have been the MC cop with the stuck mike.

2. That the acoustical evidence proves he was that MC cop.

If you accept more recent analysis of the tapes, or not,
Which ”more recent analysis” are you alluding to here?

is moot, because we can see in the footage and photographs there simply is not a motorbike in, or near enough, to the one position the report allows the patterns to match rifle shots.
Is it not? Show me how you exclude McLain from being at the right spots at the right time.

Ergo: Those six selected impulses could be caused by any number of sources, because we have no measurements against which to calculate echo times, etc.
What? After the preliminary screening in the lab, finding 5 possible candidates + 1 candidate for possible candidate from a pistol or silencer, the BBN performed testing on site in Dealey Plaza. The performed test shots with a Carcano rifle from the snipers nest and from the picket fence on the knoll. They also did test shots with the Carcano drawn in from the window and also with a pistol from grassy knoll.

After this they compared all the test shots with the 6 suspect patterns on the DPD recording and found that 5 of them corresponded with said patterns.

Which is why when asked if the tests proved rifle shots, the man responsible for said tests answered "no".
Wrong:

1. He was responsible of the BBN-part of the investigation.

2. He was asked if the tests proved FOUR rifle shots, and answered, no. Which is technically correct, given that the correct number was FIVE proven rifle shots.

3. The missmatch between the findings in the two investigations (BBN + W&A) and the presentation of said findings is completely the fault of the chief of HSCA, Robert Blakey, forcing BBN and W&A to commit to a ”political compromise”:

1. One identified rifle shot from behind had to be excluded beacause:
"The entry in Table II that occurred at 140.32 sec is a false alarm, because it occurred only 1.05 sec later than earlier correlations also obtained from the TSBD. The rifle cannot be fired that rapidly. Since there are three correlations plausibly indicating the earlier shot, the one occurring 1.05 sec later must be a false alarm."​
Which is circular reasoning a la Robert Blakey, and not grounded in the scientific investigation of the acoustical evidence.

2. The rifle shot from the picket fence was (by Blakey) moved from being number 4 (of 5) to being number 3 (of 4) because it could not be the fatal shot because Oswald killed JFK shooting from behind!!!

This is all Mr. Blakeys doing, not the investigating teams, nor their correct findings.

Blakeys stated reason for this deformation of the investigations results was that his Congressional overseers ”would never accept” the real findings, so to ”save” the shot from the picket fence = conspiracy, they had to soften it a little bit.

I assume you are happy his expertise is somewhat greater than your own?
I have nil expertise in ballistic acoustics. Do you?
 
And here is an example of your persistent misuse of language to cover logical fallacies. Needle-skip is not a "known cause." It is your hypothesized explanation. An alternative hypothesis requires evidence to establish it as superior to the null hypothesis established by scientists: the "known" phenomenon called cross-talk. Prove your case, and stop trying to browbeat your critics.
You don’t get it do you.

1. The evidence is there no matter what the cause behind it.

2. The only known cause of this to happen is a skipping needle/stylus.

It doesn’t matter what caused the proven 59 seconds delay between the Bellah cross talk and the Decker ditto. The only thing that matters is that it is there and that it refutes the claim that Deckers simulcast proves that the 5 identified rifle shots have to been recorded one minute after the real shooting.

The claim is refuted. Do you get it?
 
Can't you even begin to understand how logic and argumentation work? You're the one with the unproven claim that the needle skipped. That means you have to provide persuasive evidence of that claim. No one here is required to produce evidence to disprove your silly suspicions or hypotheses. Once again, and for all time, don't try to shift your burden of proof to us.
I know how logic and argumentation work, no worries. But, I still don’t know how mind reading works. Maybe I’m a slow learner?

Do you? Know that? How mind reading works?
 
2. The only known cause of this to happen is a skipping needle/stylus. [...] Do you get it?

Once again, you are ill-equipped for this, whether by education or disposition. Just because Dr. James Barger speculated, in response to the National Academy's exhaustive and fully supported rebuttal, that two causes MIGHT account for the one-minute problem (needle-skip or over-recording) does not mean that his defensive speculations prove anything. Speculations gain no support simply because they are uttered by a scientist.

I strongly suggest that you go over to alt-assassination or one of the other spooky-tale lists and peddle your nonsense there. You are making no progress here. It's not your natural habitat.
 
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It is proven that the timing between the Bellah cross talk and the Decker ditto differ from the real timing with exactly 59 seconds = the Decker cross talk doesn’t prove that the identified 5 rifle shots was recorded one minute after the real event and therefore could not be rifle shots.

The only known cause for this is a skipping needle/stylus when recording or, when making a copy.

More accurately: There is a difference in the time between the Decker and Bellah crosstalks as recorded on Channel I and Channel II. In particular, the time is about 30 seconds shorter on Channel II.

There is a simple explanation for this: the Channel II Gray Audograph stopped recording for some time while Channel I dictabelt did not.

NRC's response to Thomas states (p. 210):

"Both channels of the DPD recording systems were signal activated; i.e., if the transmission stopped for more than 3 or 4s, the recorder stopped recording until a new transmission occurred. Since a transmitter on Channel 1 (with the stuck-open microphone) was continuously transmitting during the relevant period, there was no dead time (even though there were long stretches with no voice), so the recording time on Channel 1 was the actual time elapsed. But Channel 2 may have had some dead time, and thus increments of the recording time on Channel 2 may be less than the actual time elapsed."

Below is a video of a Gray Audograph in operation. I don't think it is the same model the DPD had at the time, but it is from the same company and from a similar time period. Notice that even when the machine is set to record, it only actually records when it is receiving an input.



Simple hypothesis: a recording device that was designed not to record continuously did not record continuously.

More than that, the above-cited NRC report analyzed the existing recordings for skips and repeats in order to correct for them. One recording of Channel II had no skips or repeats in the relevant time (between "Go to the hospital" and the first apparent shot). Another one did have some, but correcting for them yielded the same conclusion. The apparent shots were not recorded during the assassination.

There is no photographic record of the spots in the critical time sequence. McLain is the only MC-police who COULD have been there and then. Process of elimination.

Yes, so much for that. Do you have anything else?

Synchronizing photographs and films of the assassination shows that McLain reached the location of the first shot after the last shot was fired. This was demonstrated in a video posted earlier in the thread.
 
Once again, you are ill-equipped for this, whether by education or disposition. Just because Dr. James Barger speculated, in response to the National Academy's exhaustive and fully supported rebuttal, that two causes MIGHT account for the one-minute problem (needle-skip or over-recording) does not mean that his defensive speculations prove anything. Speculations gain no support simply because they are uttered by a scientist.
Trash talking your opponent doesn’t make you more clever or your arguments stronger. It’s the opposite.

1. NRC stated that the Decker cross talk proved that the 5 impusle patterns on cha-1 was recorded one minute AFTER the real shooting and therefore proving the acoustcal investigations wrong.

2. Another cross talk from officer Bellah proves this statement by NRC wrong beacause the time sequence between this and the Decker ditto is exactly 59 seconds longer on the recording than in real time.

This is the claim. Deckers cross talk doesn’t prove the acoustics findings wrong.

Do you get it?

I strongly suggest that you go over to alt-assassination or one of the other spooky-tale lists and peddle your nonsense there. You are making no progress here. It's not your natural habitat.
So far, you are the nonsense guy, not me.

Prove me wrong.
 
No, you don't. Sorry. You're so far in the hole that you don't even get that you don't get it.
Do you have anything besides trashing your opponent? Like, evidence and good arguments pertaining to the issue at hand?

Show me.
 

Okay. I concur in Stamuel's explanation, based on evidence and lucid argument, at message #1487 above. He explains and supports the null hypothesis, noting the NRC-suggested difference between a stuck-open microphone, which recorded continuously, and a transmission-activated recording, which recorded, as designed, discontinuously. Hence the seeming time-gap. Do you see how that is a sensible, well-defended position? Do you see how vastly different it is from the mere assertion of suspicions and hypothesis, followed by a retreat into "Show me"?

Add to this the NRC's determination of flawed acoustic and echo analysis by Dr. Barger's team, and the NRC's careful corroboration of Steve Barber's discovery of cross-talk.

Add to all of that Dale Myers' well-supported, film-synchronized conclusion that the officer's motorcycle was not close enough to the position where Dr. Barger's team set up microphones.

You've now been shown, which is to say that the broad outlines of the null hypothesis have been reiterated. Explain why your hypothesis is stronger.
 
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Once again, you are ill-equipped for this, whether by education or disposition. Just because Dr. James Barger speculated, in response to the National Academy's exhaustive and fully supported rebuttal, that two causes MIGHT account for the one-minute problem (needle-skip or over-recording) does not mean that his defensive speculations prove anything. Speculations gain no support simply because they are uttered by a scientist.

The argument comes down to thus:

If we assume that the acoustic evidence proves there were 4 shots, then we can dismiss all the arguments why the acoustic evidence claims are wrong.

For example, nothing HB McLain says can be considered true because it contradicts what is needed for the acoustic evidence to true. Photographic evidence shows that McLain wasn't where he needed to be? It must be wrong.

Where was McLain? He MUST have been in the right position, because the acoustic evidence is right. Any arguments to the contrary must be wrong. It's actually very bilblical in the apologetics.

Although I still want to hear this explanation for how you can still have a doppler effect when the source of the sound and the microphone are going the same speed. Actually, he needn't bother because it is obviously nonsense.
 
It's actually very bilblical in the apologetics.

Yes, it's an elevation of personal belief above evidence, and above the need to provide contrary evidence. When I suggest that CTists are ill-equipped for reason-based argumentation, it's because for years I have observed this kind of damn-the-torpedoes approach to proof. If they can come up with any sketchy suspicion or hypothesis, they will throw it against the great weight of the evidence and declare victory.

Null hypothesis, consilience, and burden of proof, these three. But the greatest of these is intellectual humility and evidentiary responsibility. Why, if truth were really the goal, would anyone prefer a thinly supported hypothesis to a well-supported, durable null hypothesis?
 
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More accurately: There is a difference in the time between the Decker and Bellah crosstalks as recorded on Channel I and Channel II. In particular, the time is about 30 seconds shorter on Channel II.
Donald Thomas says it is 59 seconds shorter on cha-2.

There is a simple explanation for this: the Channel II Gray Audograph stopped recording for some time while Channel I dictabelt did not.

NRC's response to Thomas states (p. 210):

"Both channels of the DPD recording systems were signal activated; i.e., if the transmission stopped for more than 3 or 4s, the recorder stopped recording until a new transmission occurred. Since a transmitter on Channel 1 (with the stuck-open microphone) was continuously transmitting during the relevant period, there was no dead time (even though there were long stretches with no voice), so the recording time on Channel 1 was the actual time elapsed. But Channel 2 may have had some dead time, and thus increments of the recording time on Channel 2 may be less than the actual time elapsed."
The key word here is, ”may”. BBN did a linear regression analysis of the dispatcher's time notations that indeed proves that the Audograph machine must have shut off for extended times prior to the assassination. But after 12:30, the approximate time of the shooting, the dispatcher's announced times and the actual elapsed time fall into very close agreement for the six minutes after the shooting.
”There did not seem to be any appreciable amount of time missing, and none between 12:30 and 12:32 when the relevant broadcasts were made and where a full minute of time is supposed to be missing according to the NRC Panel.” (Thomas, Donald, 2010)​

None.

Below is a video of a Gray Audograph in operation. I don't think it is the same model the DPD had at the time, but it is from the same company and from a similar time period. Notice that even when the machine is set to record, it only actually records when it is receiving an input.

No one is arguing against this.

Simple hypothesis: a recording device that was designed not to record continuously did not record continuously.

More than that, the above-cited NRC report analyzed the existing recordings for skips and repeats in order to correct for them.
But still, 59 seconds shorter.

One recording of Channel II had no skips or repeats in the relevant time (between "Go to the hospital" and the first apparent shot). Another one did have some, but correcting for them yielded the same conclusion. The apparent shots were not recorded during the assassination.
As I said, ”may” doesn’t equal ”did”, and BBN did the analysis and found no period of ”dead air” in the relevant time gap. Maybe beacause directly after JFK got shot and the channel asigned for the parade was like a hornets nest and the other available channel had a stuck mike interfering with it.

Synchronizing photographs and films of the assassination shows that McLain reached the location of the first shot after the last shot was fired. This was demonstrated in a video posted earlier in the thread.
Was it? What video and exactly how does it show what you are aserting?
 
Okay. I concur in Stamuel's explanation, based on evidence and lucid argument, at message #1487 above. He explains and supports the null hypothesis, noting the NRC-suggested difference between a stuck-open microphone, which recorded continuously, and a transmission-activated recording, which recorded, as designed, discontinuously. Hence the seeming time-gap. Do you see how that is a sensible, well-defended position? Do you see how vastly different it is from the mere assertion of suspicions and hypothesis, followed by a retreat into "Show me"?
You are the one making asertions, I’m the one providing evidence and good arguments.

Here: http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=12266138&postcount=1497

Add to this the NRC's determination of flawed acoustic and echo analysis by Dr. Barger's team,
Again, making unfounded assertions doesn’t get you anywhere. Evidence. Arguments. Does.

and the NRC's careful corroboration of Steve Barber's discovery of cross-talk.
No one has ever disputed that Barber discovered the Decker cross talk. The question was, and still is in some quarters, what it means.

Add to all of that Dale Myers' well-supported, film-synchronized conclusion that the officer's motorcycle was not close enough to the position where Dr. Barger's team set up microphones.
Mayers is a bad joke using fancy words to sell crap to the highest bidder. But, be my guest, explain how Mayers comes to his ”well-supported” (lol) conclusion that McClain was ”not close enough”.

You've now been shown, which is to say that the broad outlines of the null hypothesis have been reiterated. Explain why your hypothesis is stronger.
I have been shown a raw of faulty reasoning based on faulty data and faulty premises.

Do better next time.
 
Mayers is a bad joke using fancy words to sell crap to the highest bidder. But, be my guest, explain how Mayers comes to his ”well-supported” (lol) conclusion that McClain was ”not close enough”.

Ad hominem. Do you know what that means? Look it up if not. What "crap" is he selling, and what do you mean by "the highest bidder," except that it's probably just a phrase that occurred to you during your rant? "Lol" is not an argument. And misspelling the name of the person you call a "bad joke" does not inspire confidence in your familiarity with sources.
 
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