Merged Paul Ryan to quit in January 2019

[dudalb]

Postdated? Ryan is staying until January 2019. There is a (nearly?) full election cycle ahead.

My bad, He stay until Jan. 19th.
But let's not get this whole semantic argument started again. I still maintain that Ryan's decisioin not to run amounts to a postdated resignation, though.

 

[RecoveringYuppy]

Yeah, it does seem like even though he's met the letter of the law regarding dates that he's still leaving the GOP with a bit of a late start.

 

[dudalb]

Correction... the GOP heads don't like what the guy will do to the party as a candidate.

We really don't know what the GOP heads actually think of him as a person, or what they think of his policies. They could be quite happy with the idea of a neo-Nazi in congress, but just don't like the optics of it.

Given the fact that those same GOP heads continued to work within the republican party after Donald "Mexican rapists" Trump became the presidential candidate, I think its right to assume they really aren't that opposed to racism, as long as it doesn't cause them to lose elections.

As much as I dislike what a lot of the GOP has become, I think a "Everybody in the GOP is Evil" viewpoint is a bit much.

 

[Crawtator]

The GOP has nobody but itself to blame. In 2009, in a panic after Obama won, they invited into the party a number of groups and individuals they has more or less frozen out the past. Now it is coming around to haunt them.

That;s the problem with making a Deal With Devil:he always comes around to collect.

or, if you prefer: Lie Down With The Dogs, Expect To Get Fleas.

And Ryan's district is considered, without Ryan and his incumbency factor, to be very competitive. If that asshat Nehlen does get the GOP nod, the Dems have a very good chance to win the district.
I suspect a lot of money is going to be poured into the distriect over the next few weeks by the GOP to prevent the Neo Nazi from getting the nomination. One Neo Nazi as an official GOP Candidate is enough....and in a way it's worse then Illinois because the GOP had little hope of winning that Illinois seat anyway.

Yeah, but I give the Wisconsin GOP a bit more pity then I do the Illinois GOP because the Ryan de facto resignation post dated to January did come out of the blue.
it's really hard to stop a nutcase from running in your party's primary.

I agree with this completely. If the Wisconsin GOP does not nominate someone, much like the Illinois seat issue, then I will condemn them for making a horrible choice and catering to Neo-Nazis. Until that happens, I think the rational approach would be "wait and see".

Question: can a party do anything about someone running as a candidate from said party? Does it have any recourse besides public disavowal?

 

[Dr. Keith]

I asked this in another thread that was probably not the right place for it: What does the Dem side look like in this district?

 

[Dr. Keith]

Question: can a party do anything about someone running as a candidate from said party? Does it have any recourse besides public disavowal?

No. If they meet the qualifications they get on the ballot. The qualifications do not have ideological tests, typically.

 

[Fudbucker]

As much as I dislike what a lot of the GOP has become, I think a "Everybody in the GOP is Evil" viewpoint is a bit much.

There are some, like George Will and Max Boot, who left the party. I don't ever agree with those guys, but they did see it going off the rails, and bailed.

Now that Trumpism has eclipsed the GOP's traditional small-government, free-trade, pro-democracy, family values platform, I have to wonder why anyone who doesn't like Trump is still with the party.

 

[dudalb]

No. If they meet the qualifications they get on the ballot. The qualifications do not have ideological tests, typically.

As an open Neo Nazi being the official GOP candidate for a house seat in Illinois shows...The GOP has no way of removing him from the ballot,although they would love to.

In many states, all you have do to be eligible for a party primaty is fulfill the residency requirements..generally you have to had been a legal resident of that district for a year...and register as a member of a party with the local election officials.

 

[dudalb]

I asked this in another thread that was probably not the right place for it: What does the Dem side look like in this district?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randy_Bryce

Bryce is well known in the Wisconsin Democratic Party, and is heavily favored to win the Democratic primary.
He would have given RYan a run for his money,and now his prospects look even better.
If the Wisconsin GOP messes up and let's Nehlen win the district..IMHO very unlikely..then it's pretty much game over for the GOP in that distreict.

 

[Dr. Keith]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randy_Bryce

Bryce is well known in the Wisconsin Democratic Party, and is heavily favored to win the Democratic primary.
He would have given RYan a run for his money,and now his prospects look even better.
If the Wisconsin GOP messes up and let's Nehlen win the district..IMHO very unlikely..then it's pretty much game over for the GOP in that distreict.

There was mention of Priebus taking swing for the GOP. If Bryce was looking competitive to Ryan, I can't imagine Priebus would have much of a chance. But then I don't know the district.

ETA: I don't see the GOP letting Nehlen take the nom. I'm trying to see how the Dem will measure up who they can put in place on short notice.

 

[crescent]

I asked this in another thread that was probably not the right place for it: What does the Dem side look like in this district?

"It feels like the first day of spring"

Can Democrats Really Win Paul Ryan’s District?

Randy Bryce saw the same reports everyone else did on Wednesday morning: House Speaker Paul Ryan will retire at the end of the year. “The first thought I had was, ‘I have to see him say these words for myself,’ ” Bryce told me by phone, after months of rumors that Ryan wouldn’t run for re-election.

Once Ryan made it official? “It feels like the first day of spring,” said Bryce, the mustachioed steelworker who had previously been waging a long-shot campaign to unseat Ryan this fall. “The birds are singing; the sun is shining.”

The Cook Political Report on Wednesday reclassified the race from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican,” signaling that Ryan’s exit creates a legitimate opening for Democrats despite the district’s GOP tilt

It’s a comfortable advantage, but Republicans still need to find a suitable replacement for Ryan on the ballot. Their choice today is between Paul Nehlen, an avowed white nationalist who is too far right for even some white nationalists, and Nick Polce, who began the year with about $4,000 in his campaign bank account. (Remarkably, Nehlen would not be the Republicans’ only anti-Semitic nominee.*) But with the filing deadline not until the start of June, Republicans still have time to go shopping, possibly for someone like Robin Vos, the speaker of the Wisconsin state Assembly.

 

[Dr. Keith]

"It feels like the first day of spring"

Can Democrats Really Win Paul Ryan’s District?

Thanks!

 

[Garrison]

Of course it means the Republicans have to invest serious time and money in a race they were probably expecting to be a lock.

 

[Segnosaur]

Of course it means the Republicans have to invest serious time and money in a race they were probably expecting to be a lock.

I wonder if there's a chance the republicans could just "give up" on trying to win the house (expecting the Democrats have enough momentum to win regardless of what the republicans do), and concentrate all their efforts on the senate.

It would also have the secondary benefit of having the Democrats in at least partial control of Congress if/when the economy starts to go tank thanks to Trump's trade wars and the republican tax plans. "See? This is what happens when you give Democrats any power!"

 

[dudalb]

I wonder if there's a chance the republicans could just "give up" on trying to win the house (expecting the Democrats have enough momentum to win regardless of what the republicans do), and concentrate all their efforts on the senate.

It would also have the secondary benefit of having the Democrats in at least partial control of Congress if/when the economy starts to go tank thanks to Trump's trade wars and the republican tax plans. "See? This is what happens when you give Democrats any power!"

No way.You do not concede either house of congress.
And the Party controlling the White House always takes the rap when the economy goes south.

 

[BobTheCoward]

No way.You do not concede either house of congress.
And the Party controlling the White House always takes the rap when the economy goes south.

Five thirty-eight gives them a generic ballot advantage of 6 points based on Gerrymandering. Even in a wave, democrat have to beat the generic ballot of 53-47 to tie. That is huge.

 

[Garrison]

No way.You do not concede either house of congress.
And the Party controlling the White House always takes the rap when the economy goes south.

Not to mention that the Republicans have had enough trouble getting legislation through with control of both houses.

 

[ddt]

As an open Neo Nazi being the official GOP candidate for a house seat in Illinois shows...The GOP has no way of removing him from the ballot,although they would love to.

In many states, all you have do to be eligible for a party primaty is fulfill the residency requirements..generally you have to had been a legal resident of that district for a year...and register as a member of a party with the local election officials.

As far as I understand from the previous discussions on this topic, indeed, there's nothing the GOP (or the Democratic party) can do to keep someone from running a their (primary) candidate. Those are the election laws, and they've undoubtedly participated in writing them that way, so they've consciously invited that way Neo-Nazis to run as GOP candidates.

I note, for completeness' sake, that in Wisconsin, election law treats major party candidates equal to third party candidates or independents for ballot access: anyone needs 1,000 signatures to get on the ballot as House candidate.

 

[ddt]

No way.You do not concede either house of congress.

Not to mention that, due to gerrymandering, Republican control over the House is much easier than over the Senate, where they're now virtually tied.

I think Paul Ryan's retirement is great news. If secretly, fear for a bad GOP result in the midterms played into his decision, then it's certainly a self-fulfilling prophecy. As an incumbent, and a very high-profile one at that, he had a huge advantage.

And from what I've seen in the links in this thread, his likely opponent Bryce looks like a great guy.

 

[Tsukasa Buddha]

Not to mention that, due to gerrymandering, Republican control over the House is much easier than over the Senate, where they're now virtually tied.

Eh, I don't think this is right, at least for 2018. The entire House is up for re-election, whereas only 1/3 of the Senate is at a time, and most of the seats Senate in 2018 are current Democrats. The House is meant to be more responsive to swings in public opinion.