Avian Flu Pandemic?

[-42-]

If they didn't make statements like that(which they do all the time, remember SARS?) then you would never hear about them.

And nothing would be done. It is a game of "Cry Wolf" where you need to do it to get any funding to work with the problems that are real(and just general funding to run the program). And you have to "Cry Wolf" to get the funding, in the end, it will probably bite them, but that is what they are doing.


What is that i'm hearing, uh, a branch broke THERE IS A WOLF.
Oh, i guess not anyways, just a deer.
What is that i'm hearing, uh, a branch broke THERE IS A WOLF.
oh, i guess not anyways, just a cow.

etc.

Of course, i may be pesimistic.

Contractable Disease:
300,000,000+ - Smallpox (20th Century)
200,000,000 - Black Death (worldwide, 1300s)
100,000,000 - Plague of Justinian (Europe 540-590) (disputed)
10,000,000 - 100,000,000 - deaths from diseases in Europe (millions) and the Americas (tens of millions) from diseases exchanged between continents after 1492
50,000,000 - Spanish Flu (worldwide, 1918 - 1919)
19,000,000 - AIDS (worldwide, 1981 - )
10,000,000 - Bubonic Plague (China, 1892 - 1896)
5,000,000 - Antonine Plague Roman Empire 165 - 180
4,000,000 - Asian Flu pandemic (worldwide, 1957)
1,000,000 - Hong Kong Flu pandemic (worldwide, 1968)
130,000 - North American smallpox epidemic (1775 - 1782)
60,000 - Great Plague of London (1665)
775 - Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) (Mostly East Asia, few cases in Europe, Canada and United States, 2002-2003)
677 - West Nile Virus outbreak (North America, 1999 - 2004)


Honestly, as far as contractable diseases go, I think really prefer a 'cry wolf' as opposed to the alternative. As far as the fear tactics, well... I suppose there are worse things to make people afraid of...

 

[Badly Shaved Monkey]

A rough guess? Sure: "Maybe soon".


The regular flu season in the northern hemisphere typically starts anywhere between now and a month or so from now, but as for avian flu, I don't know who would have been willing to stick their neck out far enough to make a specific prediction like that.

What would be your comment if I suggest that the lack of reliable human-human transmission now, in mid-October 2005, means that we are likely to have ducked the bullet for this year?

If we have, then, accepting your valid points about the economics and practicalities of vaccine and antiviral production, the likely horizon has been pushed back significantly and we have more time to sort ourselves out.

 

[TobiasTheViking]

Contractable Disease:
300,000,000+ - Smallpox (20th Century)
200,000,000 - Black Death (worldwide, 1300s)
100,000,000 - Plague of Justinian (Europe 540-590) (disputed)
10,000,000 - 100,000,000 - deaths from diseases in Europe (millions) and the Americas (tens of millions) from diseases exchanged between continents after 1492
50,000,000 - Spanish Flu (worldwide, 1918 - 1919)
19,000,000 - AIDS (worldwide, 1981 - )
10,000,000 - Bubonic Plague (China, 1892 - 1896)
5,000,000 - Antonine Plague Roman Empire 165 - 180
4,000,000 - Asian Flu pandemic (worldwide, 1957)
1,000,000 - Hong Kong Flu pandemic (worldwide, 1968)
130,000 - North American smallpox epidemic (1775 - 1782)
60,000 - Great Plague of London (1665)
775 - Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) (Mostly East Asia, few cases in Europe, Canada and United States, 2002-2003)
677 - West Nile Virus outbreak (North America, 1999 - 2004)


Honestly, as far as contractable diseases go, I think really prefer a 'cry wolf' as opposed to the alternative. As far as the fear tactics, well... I suppose there are worse things to make people afraid of...

Ehm, he asked predictions, how many of those were predicted?

And while we are at that SARS was not a pandemic, nor was West Nile Virus.

Of course vaccinations are a good thing, i'm not saying it isn't. I just don't think that we can properly predict it, and i am not convinced that the money is well spent there.

I also don't think they should stop their work, but i do think they should stop their hype.

 

[Corpse Cruncher]

I maybe wrong; but I thought more people have died of pneumonia this year than the Avian flu?

Perhaps I am missing the point here. How is this flu any worse than the normal stains of flu? Is this one a man-made variant?

 

[Capsid]

I maybe wrong; but I thought more people have died of pneumonia this year than the Avian flu?

Perhaps I am missing the point here. How is this flu any worse than the normal stains of flu? Is this one a man-made variant?

Around 60 people have died in SE Asia so far from this strain (H5N1). It's worse than other flu strains because of its pathogenicity, i.e it kills more numbers of birds/humans than others.

It's not a man made variant, perhaps you are thinking of the reconstructed Spanish flu virus that was reported recently.

 

[Corpse Cruncher]

Perhaps I was. I just wondered why this Avian flu had the same 'panic' attached to it.

 

[casebro]

Contractable Disease:
300,000,000+ - Smallpox (20th Century)
200,000,000 - Black Death (worldwide, 1300s)
100,000,000 - Plague of Justinian (Europe 540-590) (disputed)
10,000,000 - 100,000,000 - deaths from diseases in Europe (millions) and the Americas (tens of millions) from diseases exchanged between continents after 1492
50,000,000 - Spanish Flu (worldwide, 1918 - 1919)
19,000,000 - AIDS (worldwide, 1981 - )
10,000,000 - Bubonic Plague (China, 1892 - 1896)
5,000,000 - Antonine Plague Roman Empire 165 - 180
4,000,000 - Asian Flu pandemic (worldwide, 1957)
1,000,000 - Hong Kong Flu pandemic (worldwide, 1968)
130,000 - North American smallpox epidemic (1775 - 1782)
60,000 - Great Plague of London (1665)
775 - Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) (Mostly East Asia, few cases in Europe, Canada and United States, 2002-2003)
677 - West Nile Virus outbreak (North America, 1999 - 2004)


Honestly, as far as contractable diseases go, I think really prefer a 'cry wolf' as opposed to the alternative. As far as the fear tactics, well... I suppose there are worse things to make people afraid of...

To which I might add some things that were "Crying Wolf", remember:

Swine Flu?
Ebola?
SARS ?
AIDS? (still a life style disease, NOT in the general population, in First World counties, maybe 3rd world too)
Legionairres?

I think I see a lot of "Let's keep the people scared, they will then pay us to lead them to safety". Don't we see a lot of 're-defining' of diseases to raise 'awareness'? Now GUNS are a 'disease' too?

Can someone re-organise the upper list by date? Seems we just don't have Plagues lately. Isn't confidence in modern health care appropriate?

But then, I am a cynic as well as a skeptic.

 

[Dymanic]

What would be your comment if I suggest that the lack of reliable human-human transmission now, in mid-October 2005, means that we are likely to have ducked the bullet for this year?

The optimist in me is happy to agree, noting that my very presence here is in defiance of enormous odds already. The pessimist notes that worldwide surveillance for H5N1 has not really reached an optimum, and laboratory testing to confirm human infection is technically difficult, with some tests producing inconclusive or unreliable results. I think it would be prudent to proceed on the assumption that a pandemic could begin at any time.

If we have, then, accepting your valid points about the economics and practicalities of vaccine and antiviral production, the likely horizon has been pushed back significantly and we have more time to sort ourselves out.

However much time we have, I hope we use it well. I hope the lesson from Katrina will inspire large numbers of people to take a pro-active stance; to give thought to what preparations they personally need to make to deal with potential threats to their personal safety, rather than rely on government or anyone else to protect them or rescue them. If you don't work in a hospital, or hold an important government position, or drive an ambulance or a fire truck, you probably aren't one of the people likely to get an issue of antiviral or vaccine, but there may be other things you can do to increase your chances of being among the two-thirds or so of the population that won't become infected with the virus.

I also hope the Chinese don't use the time to breed resistance to Tamiflu into the bug by using it to treat chickens, and I also hope some of the gas station owners who charged twenty bucks a gallon for gas during the recent evacuations won't think of hoarding quantities of it in anticipation of peddling it on the streets for hundreds of dollars per dose once the pandemic starts.

 

[Capsid]

If you don't work in a hospital, or hold an important government position, or drive an ambulance or a fire truck, you probably aren't one of the people likely to get an issue of antiviral or vaccine....

The current vaccine is unlikely to protect you against H5N1 anyway.

 

[Iamme]

On the Robert Scott Bell talk radio show...when I happened to stumble across this show that I never heard before... he was talking about this very flu. He thinks that it is not most likely going to happen, and he spoke on this. Unfortunately, now I can't remember what he said as I was too interested in trying to remember his name while driving and what to say about him when I got here to post. You can call the radio show now if you want and talk to Bell, AND his guest by phone from Kiev, Ukraine...Kevin Trudeau, by calling 1-800-449-TALK. Or, maybe you could find some interesting reading on his website at rsbell.com.

 

[Iamme]

To which I might add some things that were "Crying Wolf", remember:

Swine Flu?
Ebola?
SARS ?
AIDS? (still a life style disease, NOT in the general population, in First World counties, maybe 3rd world too)
Legionairres?

I think I see a lot of "Let's keep the people scared, they will then pay us to lead them to safety". Don't we see a lot of 're-defining' of diseases to raise 'awareness'? Now GUNS are a 'disease' too?

Can someone re-organise the upper list by date? Seems we just don't have Plagues lately. Isn't confidence in modern health care appropriate?

But then, I am a cynic as well as a skeptic.

NOW I remember; Bell brought up the same thing...about SARS, for comparison.

Let's just pray? and hope, that Bell and you are correct in your assertions. I never could figure out why a creator who had the power to create us and all things would allow either a pest or a disease to overwhelm us. Remember..I am not some wacked out fundamentalist, and I ponder these issues as any skeptic would. It sounds so unreasonable to believe that everything under the sun just so happened just because it just so happened. Yet, at the same time, when you hear of the recent Pakistan earthquake, Katrina, the tsunami, 9-11, Black death...etc., one really wonders exactly what this god is that we are dealing with..if there is one. Or, could this be the Bible speaking the truth of this vindictive God that doesn't appreciate the way we are treating the earth and behaving on the earth, and we are in the prophesized 'end days'? If you want to get into this further, there are the apropriate threads, of which I am a part, over in the religion and philosophy forum.

 

[luchog]

To which I might add some things that were "Crying Wolf", remember:

SARS ?

SARS was identified early, and major efforts were made to isolate and quarantine any outbreaks; including stepping up hospital safety and disease identification procedures in areas with a significant number of Asian immigrants and travellers. Without that reaction, it could have been far, far worse. I had aquaintances working in Vancouver, BC hospitals during the outbreak; and they were really coming down hard on safety procedures.
[/quote]

AIDS? (still a life style disease, NOT in the general population, in First World counties, maybe 3rd world too)

AIDS is not a "lifestyle" disease. And it is becoming a major problem in the Third World; not exclusively from sexual contact, but through other avenues, such as poor safety procedures in hospitals. Plus, the lack of testing availble makes it more likely that the disease will be passed on before it is detected. The highest infection rate is currently in adult heterosexual females.

The only reason that it hasn't become the sort of pandemic that various Flu strains have is it's extremely low transmissibility. It can only be transmitted through direct, significant exchange of bodily fluids, and the virus cannot survive for more than brief periods outside the human body or a similarly hospitable environment. Influenza virii are highly transmissible, in several different modes, including airborne; and can survive for significant periods outside the body or similar host environment.

I think I see a lot of "Let's keep the people scared, they will then pay us to lead them to safety". Don't we see a lot of 're-defining' of diseases to raise 'awareness'? Now GUNS are a 'disease' too?

There's a huge difference between the two. Guns as a "disease" is a meaningless semantical construct, and is created purely for propaganda purposes; the actual problem is cultural and in no way analogous to a true disease. It is, at best, junk science. Influenza viruses, however, are a true disease, by the accepted medical definition; and carry a well-documented and quantifiable risk. The "scare tactics" are based on a scientific evaluation of that risk. It is not an exact science, and there is still a lot that we do not know, and cannot possibly predict with a high degree of accuracy (being based on random natural processes). However, we do know enough to be able to calculate probabilities with a reasonable amount of accuracy, and base our responses on those probabilities.

 

[Dymanic]

On the Robert Scott Bell talk radio show...when I happened to stumble across this show that I never heard before... he was talking about this very flu. He thinks that it is not most likely going to happen, and he spoke on this.

LMAO!

Good one.

 

[RandFan]

AIDS is not a "lifestyle" disease.

...

It can only be transmitted through direct, significant exchange of bodily fluids, and the virus cannot survive for more than brief periods outside the human body or a similarly hospitable environment.

I personally would not call it a lifestyle disease but I'm curious, what percentage of aids is transmitted via sexual intercourse?

 

[casebro]

The highest infection rate is currently in adult heterosexual females.

I think you have that wrong- I believe it goes "The group with the fastest rate of increase is heterosexual females". And that statistic may be out of date, it could have leveled off by now. Isn't the overall rate in the US something like 1:5,000? With a prety stable number now? Does the word "Epidemic" even apply?

I guess any infectious disease could mutate and spread like wildfire through what has become a world wide mono-culture of humans. Tuberculosis, pneumonia, chicken pox, mumps, could all mutate. And each kills more people today than Avian flu, or Ebola, or SARS, or "Flesh Eating Bacteria"....Whats to get head up about with the disease o'the day?

 

[Badly Shaved Monkey]

Whats to get head up about with the disease o'the day?

(I don't normally bother with grammar errors, but you might genuinely be interested that the word "head" in that sentence should be "het", if I am grasping your meaning correctly)

 

[Bowser]

h5n1 is most certainly not part of this year's vaccine, and I doubt it will be part of next year's either. The limited h5n1 vaccine eventually available will be a two-shot series and unlikely to be combined with anything else.

h5n1 is endemic in the wild bird population. It has caused major dieoffs among the wild populations, and it is being spread via migration. Domestic fowl are vulnerable to exposure to wild birds, for instance from droppings. It does not appear possible to isolate h5n1, so we have to hope that the strains are not nearly so virulent.

Even if h5n1 becomes viable this year, its success may not be a good indicator of what happens in future winters. The 1918 flu started off slowly; it was not a major killer until at least the second year.

 

[drkitten]

I just don't get the logical jump from 110 cases to a billion? There have been human cases of H5N1 even before 1997 and it has not yet mutated into a human-to-human disease.

Yes, that's exactly why there haven't been a billion cases yet.

At the risk of indulging in a bit of hyperbole -- either the virus is capable of being transmitted easily from human to human, or it isn't. Mutations either happen or they don't, but you never get 2/3 or a mutation. In the case of the influenza virus, we know more or less what a typical transmission pattern looks like -- and H5N1 doesn't display it. Yet.

One way of looking at it that may help. We know of a plausible scenario where H5N1 causes a few dozen cases per year -- that's basically the current situation. We also know of a plausible scenario where H5N1 causes a billion cases per year -- that's the scenario where H5N1 acquires a more typical influenza-like transmission pattern (which it could easily do via it's high mutation rate, or via gene-swapping with other strains of flu). I can't come up with a plausible situation where H5N1 causes 10,000 cases per year. For H5N1 to increase in transmissibility enough to cause 10,000 cases would almost require easy human-to-human transmission capacity, but as soon as you get that, you're back to the billion case scenario.

Normally a billion cases of flu a year aren't a problem -- they're typical. But the death rate from "normal" strains of flu isn't anywhere near 50%. That's the problem. H5N1 is different from normal flu in two major ways -- it doesn't transmit from human to human well, and it kills a hell of a lot of its victims. When those two ways drop to one.... well, that will be a problem.

 

[geni]

I think you have that wrong- I believe it goes "The group with the fastest rate of increase is heterosexual females". And that statistic may be out of date, it could have leveled off by now. Isn't the overall rate in the US something like 1:5,000? With a prety stable number now? Does the word "Epidemic" even apply?

The US is a pretty small percentage of the world population. Looking at international rate it appears that the word Epidemic does apply.

Tuberculosis, pneumonia, chicken pox, mumps, could all mutate.

They all have a pretty low mutation rate.

 

[alfaniner]

Why is this one so much worse than the regular flu?