The Trump Presidency (Act V - The One Where Everybody Dies)

[Skeptic Ginger]

Even if that was true, so what? Are they really saying that the pleasure they get from Beethoven's music is worth the misery of millions of women, millions of deprived children, and all the resulting harm? I mean I do actually listen to his music (Radio 3 are playing some right now) but I wouldn't be that selfish about it.

Touché.

 

[Minoosh]

Furthermore I think he might even experience a slight bump in numbers because there'll be a number of people who don't particularly care one way or another about the Dreamers but who will approve of him for being decisive.

You are right to challenge my opinion given how much of it is instinct or a "gut feeling." However, I am in the U.S. and I see anecdotal evidence of Trump support slipping. (Family members, Republicans, have soured on him).

I also may be unduly influenced by the fact that I'm often literally surrounded by Mexican/American youngsters, some of them born in places like Alabama or Arkansas where their parents did hard labor, possibly alongside white workers who have found Mexicans aren't so scary once you know them. DACA is popular if polls are to be believed, so there's that.

Even if Trump's personal support is solid that does not necessarily translate into votes for congressional candidates who answer to constituents. Even if gerrymandering favors them, I hope they're becoming a little bit spooked by what the future holds if they continue with more-xenophobic-than-thou campaign platforms.

DACA people are embedded in the U.S. now, serving in our military, studying for health-care careers or just being normal American teenagers. Even though they can't vote, there will be support from many white people, some religious organizations , chambers of commerce, probably the U.S. military and of course other Latinos who do vote. IMO Trump himself doesn't really have a problem with letting them stay and work, go to school etc.

I'm not a wonk on how gerrymandering works but I gather that the "safe" districts actually aren't safe by huge margins. Tipping points can be reached. I'd like to know more about it - from your understanding or links you can recommend.

 

[fagin]

Most famines in history could have been avoid if people had had access to safe birth control.

Or eat babies.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Or eat babies.

bad ratio of effort to sustenance.

 

[Craig B]

Or eat babies.

That's a rather Modest Proposal.

 

[The Don]

Even if Trump's personal support is solid that does not necessarily translate into votes for congressional candidates who answer to constituents. Even if gerrymandering favors them, I hope they're becoming a little bit spooked by what the future holds if they continue with more-xenophobic-than-thou campaign platforms.

I doubt that they are spooked - not least because in many districts, realistically the only thing standing between the incumbent and reelection is being "primaried" by a GOP candidate even more extreme than they are.

DACA people are embedded in the U.S. now, serving in our military, studying for health-care careers or just being normal American teenagers. Even though they can't vote, there will be support from many white people, some religious organizations , chambers of commerce, probably the U.S. military and of course other Latinos who do vote. IMO Trump himself doesn't really have a problem with letting them stay and work, go to school etc.

IMO President Trump doesn't really care about anyone or anything other than himself. He seems to have no personal convictions beyond looking after number 1. He's like a cushion, bearing the impression of the last person to sit on him. In this case this seems to have been Steve Miller who wants the DACA kids gone.

I'm not a wonk on how gerrymandering works but I gather that the "safe" districts actually aren't safe by huge margins. Tipping points can be reached. I'd like to know more about it - from your understanding or links you can recommend.

This is a nice primer but likely too simple for what you're looking for:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mky11UJb9AY

You are absolutely right that there is a tipping point where all of a sudden great swathes will swing to the party which has been the victim of gerrymandering. In Virginia, this tipping point was understood to be something more than 10 points, so to achieve parity statewide, the Democrats would have to out-poll the GOP 55-45, which is a heck of a margin. One of the surprises of the recent election there was how resilient and successful the gerrymandering was and so that the estimated 10 point tipping point margin may be significantly higher

 

[Minoosh]

I doubt that they are spooked - not least because in many districts, realistically the only thing standing between the incumbent and reelection is being "primaried" by a GOP candidate even more extreme than they are.

The more the merrier. I wonder how the Democrats are doing right now in terms of lining up talent and developing a marketing strategy.

As for Republicans - it's not a given IMO that the most extreme candidates will automatically prevail over moderates. Even Republicans might be getting tired of extremism. And I wasn't thinking solely of the 2018 election either. Times do change at some point. Plus, look what happened in Alabama.

 

[Armitage72]

It's a stupid argument, but some have suggested that Beethoven's mother was in a situation where she might have been advised to get an abortion, and thus might have done so, and thus etc. etc.

It reminds me of a comic strip I saw once in which various famous painters, writers, and composers throughout history ended up never creating anything because their parents put them on Ritalin when they were children.

 

[The Don]

The more the merrier. I wonder how the Democrats are doing right now in terms of lining up talent and developing a marketing strategy.

I can't tell from this side of the Atlantic, but the prominent Democrats do look awfully familiar and we hear very little from them.

As for Republicans - it's not a given IMO that the most extreme candidates will automatically prevail over moderates. Even Republicans might be getting tired of extremism. And I wasn't thinking solely of the 2018 election either. Times do change at some point.

At some point, perhaps, but IMO we're a long way from that point. There are still plenty of old white people who are angry that their rose-tinted version of the 50's is over and then there's two more generations of bigots behind them who have been newly invigorated by this Trump Presidency.

The party faithful are often the most extreme and are drawn to similarly extreme candidates. They'll be throwing up unelectable candidates for a decade or more before they even think about changing tack - or more likely before an influx of new party members drags the GOP in a different direction.

The Christian fundamentalist preachers are still pushing their message and the churches are still pretty well attended so I don't anticipate change any time soon. Heck the whitelash has barely begun.

Plus, look what happened in Alabama.

Alabama is IMO a case in point in exactly how far gone the GOP is. Had Roy Moore not been an alleged child molester then it's likely he would have won the election at a canter. It didn't matter that he had repeatedly ignored the constitution and held views on race and religion that had him at the extreme of the GOP. Even despite the (IMO well-founded) allegations, he still only lost narrowly.

 

[ponderingturtle]

The more the merrier. I wonder how the Democrats are doing right now in terms of lining up talent and developing a marketing strategy.

As for Republicans - it's not a given IMO that the most extreme candidates will automatically prevail over moderates. Even Republicans might be getting tired of extremism. And I wasn't thinking solely of the 2018 election either. Times do change at some point. Plus, look what happened in Alabama.

I doubt that. The right wing media is being very effective at moving the ballance further and further right.

 

[Tero]

No matter who runs, it’s going to be another Twitter election. I mean your message has to be that short. ”Foreigners” was better than Hillary’s ”it’s number 23 on the agenda list at my website.”

 

[phiwum]

No matter who runs, it’s going to be another Twitter election. I mean your message has to be that short. ”Foreigners” was better than Hillary’s ”it’s number 23 on the agenda list at my website.”

Yes.

 

[jnelso99]

No matter who runs, it’s going to be another Twitter election. I mean your message has to be that short. ”Foreigners” was better than Hillary’s ”it’s number 23 on the agenda list at my website.”

Ok, fine. I'LL run for president. Got some slogans already:

"Americans deserve some rest"
"You'll forget I'm President"
"I'm just doing this for the health insurance"

 

[3point14]

I've heard the argument that if abortion had been legal there would be no Beethoven. If we could abort babies with no brains, where would we find a president?

Ah yes, but abortions also prevented the birth of the wouldhavebeen infamous Boston babyeater, the Sacramento Schoolgirl strangler and the bloke that (would have) bombed the White House...

 

[Hellbound]

Ah yes, but abortions also prevented the birth of the wouldhavebeen infamous Boston babyeater, the Sacramento Schoolgirl strangler and the bloke that (would have) bombed the White House...

Any chance of getting that last one back?

(I kid! I kid!)

 

[Mumbles]

A decade ago, it might have been wrong to express things in such black-and-white terms. There were moderates on both sides, Republicans were willing to work with the Democrats, etc.

Back when Bush Jr. was president, I thought it was rather dumb to label him a "nazi". There might have been significant problems with his policies, but he never acted in a petty or overly racist manner (at least not that I can remember).

At the very most, Bush could occasionally be a racist in the "states a stereotype about another race" sort of way. As I've said before, he actively attempted to recruit nonwhite people into the GOP - although sometimes his administration did so by pushing for anti-marriage-equality initiatives onto state ballots, and some in his administration actively worked against this.

Dolt 45 is obviously a white supremacist, and this has been known for decades, which is why his initial staff was slopping over with ethnostate proponents. People like Stephen Miller is barely smart enough to avoid tying himself directly to nazi aficionados and KKKers, and Gorka and Bannon didn't even manage that, with Bannon in particular actively working to bring KKK ideology into the GOP mainstream via Breitbart.

It's not "black-and-white" thinking just because a set of particular objects is at #000000 hex.

 

[Belz...]

Of course. The root of his deep-seated psychoses is a devastating sense of inferiority which he must compensate for.**

**The standard disclaimers apply.

No, I think you're right on the money, and I've been saying that for a while. No one who's confident would say the things he does about himself.

 

[ponderingturtle]

At the very most, Bush could occasionally be a racist in the "states a stereotype about another race" sort of way. As I've said before, he actively attempted to recruit nonwhite people into the GOP - although sometimes his administration did so by pushing for anti-marriage-equality initiatives onto state ballots, and some in his administration actively worked against this.

And he did not have direct ties to nazis. For all the sins and crimes I put on W racism and Islamophobia are not ones I would give much credence to.

Here was Trump unashamadly citing nazi propaganda.

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/nov/23/donald-trump/trump-tweet-blacks-white-homicide-victims/

 

[Mumbles]

They don't care about any of that. They think they're getting what they think they want.

That's all that matters.

Morals, ethics, whatever few personal standards they may claim they have ... all of that is cast aside as long as they think they are getting what they think they want.

That Trump is legitimizing public displays of sexism, racism, bigotry and general churlishness is just an added benefit as far as they are concerned.

It means they can quit pretending.

To paraphrase many other people, you can't think that white supremacists are "voting against their interests" when they've shown again and again that feeling superior to "the darkies" is their main political interest. As long as black/"Arab"/"Mexican" people are worse off than they are, they're perfectly happy to live in squalor and be angry and resentful.

Black people get into their schools? Shut down the school system, murder reporters. "Next thing you know, they'll be marrying our daughters!"Forced to integrate your pool? Fill it in with concrete, even if you're in the deep south and have no AC. they won't give up their seat for the superior white man? Just get rid of public transit entirely. Black folks are forced to provide free labor for rich people? Well, join up with the "slave patrols". Lincoln was elected? Time to go to fight and die for someone else's money. White dude gets shot in his hotel by a crazed cop that took "warrior cop" training? Well, that's awful, he should be shooting "thugs" like Tamir Rice, and harassing those dirty Mexicans, too! Darkie has no job? He's lazy and living off of white people's money! Darkie gets a job? It's Affirmative Action, dammit!

The truth is, Trump is giving them exactly what they want.

 

[Minoosh]

At some point, perhaps, but IMO we're a long way from that point.

I think perhaps not but we'll see!

There are still plenty of old white people who are angry that their rose-tinted version of the 50's is over

A caricature I resist. I'm living on the campus of an old folks' home and I see anti-Trump bumper stickers. The actual old people (relative to me ) watch MSNBC and CNN in the exercise room. They're mainly white but quite a few are gay. The church-owned campus passed out leaflets urging residents to fight Obamacare repeal. There is a Christian Left and they vote too.

Some pessimism is healthy but so is positivity. Can't believe I'm saying that.

and then there's two more generations of bigots behind them who have been newly invigorated by this Trump Presidency.

They're outnumbered. If millenials/Latinos/African-Americans/gay/lesbian/bisexual/transgender people vote, that is. Not to forget that saving Social Security and Medicare will interest them. I'm not saying all these people vote as a bloc, nor should they. But in schools I see gay Latino boys snogging at lunchtime and white Okie boys who would kick ass if anyone gave them trouble.

I'll rustle up quantitative data if I'm not too lazy.

They'll be throwing up unelectable candidates for a decade or more before they even think about changing tack -

One hopes.

Heck the whitelash has barely begun.

I won't tempt fate by disagreeing.

Does it sound like I'm just looking for an argument? Well that's true too! I agreed with you that complacence was going to be a problem in the 2016 election. Not so much 2018. Si se puede! That's Spanish for "Trump sucks Putin's balls!"