The Trump Presidency (Act V - The One Where Everybody Dies)

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The Don said:
The people who will be incensed at the deportations are IMO already vehemently anti-Trump.
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But they don't need to be incensed. They just need to know the GOP isn't going to lift a finger to stop some 800,000 very stupid, very unfair and wholly avoidable forced repatriations of beautiful children who are vitally important to our national interests.

Skeptic Ginger said:
I never said you weren't well informed or intelligent. And I'm sorry. I get carried away with my annoyance at seeing all the dishonest framing and marketing as the GOP effectively makes the narrative about the Democrats' failings and the Dems are very poor countering it.
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Thank you. I honestly haven't been following national news for the past few days. I agree that Democrats need to become much better with their message. What is their message?

Skeptic Ginger said:
That's not true. DACA was never in play until Trump annulled Obama's executive order. His motives likely included destroy anything Obama and please the base. Then when he looked really bad for that action, he went on to pretend the reason was to get legislation instead of an executive order.
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I'm not talking about just the past few months, I'm talking about issues in play for at least 10 years. The Dream Act was included in the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2007. When that bill failed to make it to the Senate floor the Dream Act in theory could have been revived and offered as a standalone bill but no one wanted to touch that in the run-up to a presidential election. I think it's different now.

Skeptic Ginger said:
Answer me why you are lumping the Democrats into to the group you blame and what should they have done differently?
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Who is the group I blame and how am I lumping them together? Could you quote me?

If Democrats wanted to pass legislation their only opportunity was in 2009-2010. Republicans could do it right now. Don't worry, any GOP claim that Democrats killed DACA is not going to stick because the question it raises is too freakin' obvious: Why doesn't the GOP just do it? The time to resolve this as a legal, political and even moral issue is right now. Good thing if it's not resolved, maybe. Rattle some cages, get some people to the polls. But I'd rather just see a standalone law passed now.
 
uke2se said:
Yes I do. Just because I can't easily identify the Trump base doesn't mean I can't define it. In fact, I already did. Why are we having this argument anyway? Is the difference between the Trump base and Trump voters really that arcane?
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You know who it describes, but you can't say who it describes?

I'm yet to be convinced that it's a meaningful term.
 
The amount of cognitive dissonance must be strong with this one.

In response to a question about why evangelicals are giving Trump a pass on his adulterous behavior when they came down so heavily on Bill Clinton, Franklin Graham said this:

"I believe Donald Trump is a good man," he said. "He did everything wrong as a candidate and he won, and I don't understand it. Other than I think God put him there."

The rest of the weaseling here: http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/24/politics/graham-evangelicals-support-trump-don-lemon-cnntv/index.html
 
uke2se said:
Yes I do. Just because I can't easily identify the Trump base doesn't mean I can't define it. In fact, I already did. Why are we having this argument anyway? Is the difference between the Trump base and Trump voters really that arcane?
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44% of the electorate voted for President Trump

His approval rating is still mid-30's percent.

There may be a vanishingly small number of people who voted for someone else but who now approve of him but to me it looks like 75-80% of those who voted for him, still support him.

Given everything that has happened in the last year, all the lies told, gaffes made, rounds of golf played, scandals and so on, anyone who still supports Trump is part of his base IMO. On that basis, his base consists of 75-80% of those who voted for him.
 
Squeegee Beckenheim said:
You know who it describes, but you can't say who it describes?

I'm yet to be convinced that it's a meaningful term.
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:boggled:

1. Do you understand what people are talking about when they use the term "Trump's base"?
2. Do you understand what people are talking about when they use the term "Trump voter"?
3. Do you understand that there is a difference between the two terms?
4. Do you understand what the difference is?
 
The Don said:
44% of the electorate voted for President Trump

His approval rating is still mid-30's percent.

There may be a vanishingly small number of people who voted for someone else but who now approve of him but to me it looks like 75-80% of those who voted for him, still support him.

Given everything that has happened in the last year, all the lies told, gaffes made, rounds of golf played, scandals and so on, anyone who still supports Trump is part of his base IMO. On that basis, his base consists of 75-80% of those who voted for him.
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I completely disagree. Using those definitions, the term "base" is completely meaningless. In a country like the US that is so partisan, it might be diffcult to discern the difference between "base" and "party voter", but that doesn't mean that there isn't a difference.
 
Minoosh said:
But they don't need to be incensed. They just need to know the GOP isn't going to lift a finger to stop some 800,000 very stupid, very unfair and wholly avoidable forced repatriations of beautiful children who are vitally important to our national interests.
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The shocking thing is that 30-40% of the US electorate take a completely opposing view. They see the Dreamers as foreigners, in this country illegally, who ought to be deported. If President Trump deports the Dreamers then his support among that 30-40% will harden.

An unknown (but IMO significant) percentage simply don't care enough about the Dreamers. There are many reasons for that. Some people are too busy making it from paycheck to paycheck to worry too much about other folk, no matter how worthy the cause. Others are so shallow that anything that doesn't affect them personally can be safely ignored. Others still are poorly informed and have no idea about (and have no desire to learn about) Dreamers.

As important as the Dreamers are to you, and as important as they should be, a significant proportion of the US electorate (very possibly the majority) either don't care enough about it for it to be a big issue for them or indeed want the Dreamers deported. That's why I think that if President Trump and the GOP deported the Dreamers their numbers would get a bump because a proportion of the "don't cares" would take it as a sign of strong leadership.

It's not "right", but that's the US these days (and I cannot honestly say, hand on heart, that the UK would be any different).
 
The Don said:
The shocking thing is that 30-40% of the US electorate take a completely opposing view. They see the Dreamers as foreigners, in this country illegally, who ought to be deported. If President Trump deports the Dreamers then his support among that 30-40% will harden.

An unknown (but IMO significant) percentage simply don't care enough about the Dreamers. There are many reasons for that. Some people are too busy making it from paycheck to paycheck to worry too much about other folk, no matter how worthy the cause. Others are so shallow that anything that doesn't affect them personally can be safely ignored. Others still are poorly informed and have no idea about (and have no desire to learn about) Dreamers.
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Jesus, when I just said this, you disagreed with me. :boggled:
 
uke2se said:
:boggled:

1. Do you understand what people are talking about when they use the term "Trump's base"?
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Not really, no. And it seems that you can't explain who it's supposed to describe, either.

I am yet to be convinced that it's a meaningful term.
 
uke2se said:
I completely disagree. Using those definitions, the term "base" is completely meaningless. In a country like the US that is so partisan, it might be diffcult to discern the difference between "base" and "party voter", but that doesn't mean that there isn't a difference.
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I thought the idea of "base" was the core support who would support him come what may.

IMO anyone who supports President Trump, after everything he has done, is part of the base because he hasn't done anything to encourage objective support. Around 20% of those who voted for President Trump no longer support him personally. I think these are the people who held their noses and voted the GOP ticket. The remaining 75-80% have IMO drunk the Koolaid and are fully on board.

What proportion of the US electorate do you consider to be President Trump's base ? How did you establish this figure ?

I accept that my number may be wrong but at least I've provided a rationale and showed my workings....
 
uke2se said:
Jesus, when I just said this, you disagreed with me. :boggled:
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Where ?

I realise that I worded my post badly, the

An unknown (but IMO significant) percentage simply don't care enough about the Dreamers. There are many reasons for that. Some people are too busy making it from paycheck to paycheck to worry too much about other folk, no matter how worthy the cause. Others are so shallow that anything that doesn't affect them personally can be safely ignored. Others still are poorly informed and have no idea about (and have no desire to learn about) Dreamers.
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....is in addition to the 35-40% who are opposed to the Dreamers.
 
The Don said:
I thought the idea of "base" was the core support who would support him come what may.
IMO anyone who supports President Trump, after everything he has done, is part of the base because he hasn't done anything to encourage objective support. Around 20% of those who voted for President Trump no longer support him personally. I think these are the people who held their noses and voted the GOP ticket. The remaining 75-80% have IMO drunk the Koolaid and are fully on board.

What proportion of the US electorate do you consider to be President Trump's base ? How did you establish this figure ?

I accept that my number may be wrong but at least I've provided a rationale and showed my workings....
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I would use the hilited definition as well. I'm just not convinced that all the people who now support Trump belong to that category. I certainly don't hope so.
 
The Don said:
Where ?

I realise that I worded my post badly, the



....is in addition to the 35-40% who are opposed to the Dreamers.
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I objected to your saying that DACA was something everyone wanted and that the Democrats made a bad deal by trading for it by saying that the Trump base didn't want DACA. Here you are saying essentially the same thing about the Trump base, although you spent the last page disagreeing with me about Trump's base.

Are we having communications trouble?
 
Squeegee Beckenheim said:
You know who it describes, but you can't say who it describes?

I'm yet to be convinced that it's a meaningful term.
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Personally I think that there is a meaningful difference between Trump Voters and Trump Supporters. I'm not sure that there is a meaningful difference between Trump Supporters and Trump Base.

At least some people who voted for President Trump did so solely because he was the GOP candidate. They would equally have voted for a cabbage or a tub of lard if it was the GOP candidate. They may dislike the man personally, think he is a bad President, but they voted for him because they always vote for the GOP Presidential candidate. There are other people who voted for Donald Trump because they wanted to "shake things up a bit" and have subsequently looked on in dismay as his Presidency has unfolded. These IMO are examples of people who were Trump Voters but who are not Trump Supporters or part of the Trump Base.

The thing that has shocked me was that I thought that the Trump Base was actually quite small (less than 20% of the electorate) but as his approval has held steady, it's clear to me (and very worrying) that it's nearly twice that size :jaw-dropp
 
uke2se said:
I objected to your saying that DACA was something everyone wanted and that the Democrats made a bad deal by trading for it by saying that the Trump base didn't want DACA. Here you are saying essentially the same thing about the Trump base, although you spent the last page disagreeing with me about Trump's base.

Are we having communications trouble?
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There is a sizeable number of people who are simultaneously in favour of DACA and who would be quite happy to see those covered by DACA deported. It's the same kind of cognitive dissonance which has people very happy with the ACA but at the same time wants it repealed and replaced with something far worse.

If the GOP goes ahead and continues to allow DACA then there will be a significant number of GOP supporters who will be unhappy because they want all illegals deported but there also seems to be a significant number who want to see the Dreamers' efforts rewarded.

Then again, if President Trump deports the Dreamers, those opposed to DACA will be thrilled and those that support DACA will still approve of the President because heck, if they still approve of him now, they'll support him regardless. They will still, IMO account for less than 50% of the US electorate.
 
uke2se said:
I would use the hilited definition as well. I'm just not convinced that all the people who now support Trump belong to that category. I certainly don't hope so.
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If someone still supports President Trump now, after everything that has happened in the last 18 months, I can't see how they're not part of his base.
 
The Don said:
There is a sizeable number of people who are simultaneously in favour of DACA and who would be quite happy to see those covered by DACA deported. It's the same kind of cognitive dissonance which has people very happy with the ACA but at the same time wants it repealed and replaced with something far worse.

If the GOP goes ahead and continues to allow DACA then there will be a significant number of GOP supporters who will be unhappy because they want all illegals deported but there also seems to be a significant number who want to see the Dreamers' efforts rewarded.

Then again, if President Trump deports the Dreamers, those opposed to DACA will be thrilled and those that support DACA will still approve of the President because heck, if they still approve of him now, they'll support him regardless. They will still, IMO account for less than 50% of the US electorate.
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But it's not just about Trump. It's also about Senate and House Republicans. They don't share Trump's seeming invincibility. They might be primaried if they support DACA. That's why a deal on DACA might be a good thing to do and should not be seen as conceding something for nothing.
 
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