Cont: The Trump Presidency Part IV

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The Don said:
President Trump must be doing something right.

According to Gallup (yes I know they are flawed, but find me a better source that produces weekly figures split by party affiliation and I'll use it) his approval rating (39%) is higher now than at any point in the last 6 months, his approval rating among Republicans has risen from 77% to 82% in two weeks, among independents from 31% to 34% and even among Democrats from 7% to 9% in that same period.

http://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx

It seems odd to me, but it seems that getting an allegedly wildly unpopular tax bill passed has improved his approval rating significantly :confused:

  • Is the tax bill actually far more popular than we have been led to believe ?
  • Do people in the US approve of politicians who get things done, even if they are things they don't want ?
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I think the bump in the polls might be because of the perception that Trump saved Christmas. No, I’m not joking.
 
BobTheCoward said:
They can answer many questions about this without having a specific NDA. Does it come up? Is there any case history on this question? Is there any laws dealing with this? And so on.
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Yeah, that's a fair point - they wouldn't know in this specific case but they'd be able to make an educated guess and say what similar stuff they've seen in the past.

For myself, as not a lawyer and not someone that has ever scrutinized an NDA, I wouldn't be surprised if lies would break the agreement. It would make sense to me for the wording to include either a "don't lie about us" line specifically or a more general "don't talk about this stuff" line that doesn't specify whether or not you're *accurately* talking about it.
 
The Don said:
According to Gallup...his approval rating (39%) is higher now than at any point in the last 6 months, his approval rating among Republicans has risen from 77% to 82% in two weeks, among independents from 31% to 34% and even among Democrats from 7% to 9% in that same period.

It seems odd to me, but it seems that getting an allegedly wildly unpopular tax bill passed has improved his approval rating significantly :confused:

  • Is the tax bill actually far more popular than we have been led to believe ?
  • Do people in the US approve of politicians who get things done, even if they are things they don't want ?
Click to expand...
A few possibilities....


- The rise in republican support (and some independents) might actually be due to the tax bill. (These may have been people who wanted Trump to follow through on his promises and were dissatisfied with gridlock in congress)

- Some of it could be due to random sampling noise
- Some of it could simply be due to the christmas break... Politics (and the president) were pushed to the background in people's minds, many of the critics (including political satirists) were on hiatus

ETA: Keep in mind that while his current rating is higher than it was a few months ago, its still low compared to other presidents. And, there are some significant problems coming up that could further erode his support: Obamacare subsidy battles, possible cuts to medicare/medicaid, infrastructure spending.
 
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The Don said:
President Trump must be doing something right.

According to Gallup (yes I know they are flawed, but find me a better source that produces weekly figures split by party affiliation and I'll use it) his approval rating (39%) is higher now than at any point in the last 6 months, his approval rating among Republicans has risen from 77% to 82% in two weeks, among independents from 31% to 34% and even among Democrats from 7% to 9% in that same period.

http://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx

It seems odd to me, but it seems that getting an allegedly wildly unpopular tax bill passed has improved his approval rating significantly :confused:

  • Is the tax bill actually far more popular than we have been led to believe ?
  • Do people in the US approve of politicians who get things done, even if they are things they don't want ?
Click to expand...

I'm frankly amazed that his approval among Republicans ever fell to 77% in the first place.

It also wouldn't shock me if people have just already forgotten about the tax bill and are paying attention to the nuclear dick-wagging squirrel.
 
The consensus at the Washington post seems to be that Trump is just bluffing with threatening Bannon and the publisher of the book, ultimately Bannon would likely prevail if they actually filed a lawsuit.
 
Vox's take on the book

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/4/16845640/michael-wolff-trump-book

Overall, my advice for reading the book is to look closely at what Wolff reveals about the sourcing of each of his claim.

The most reliable stuff is, well, stuff people said on the record to Wolff directly. If the quotations directly quote people telling him things and identify them, they are probably accurate. (That doesn’t necessarily mean what these sources are saying is accurate, but the quotes themselves are probably right.) Again, Bannon really does seem to have said all that stuff.

Similarly, look for clues about which scenes Wolff was actually in the room for — even though, in the passages released so far, his opaque descriptions of his sourcing can make that rather difficult.

As the sourcing grows hazier, you should probably add grains of salt accordingly. Of course, anonymity is often crucial for sources to speak candidly. But it also can allow people to spread untrue or inaccurate information. And given Wolff’s weakness for gossip and the questions raised about some of his juicy tidbits so far, a skeptical eye seems warranted.
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Polaris said:
I'm frankly amazed that his approval among Republicans ever fell to 77% in the first place.
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Maybe not TOO surprising. After all, at least some republicans liked Trump's policies, but were upset that he was unable to enact them. That would have dropped his approval rating some.

And its possible that a small minority of Republicans actually do have morals and principles. Granted not many, but a few...
 
I would say that "a skeptical eye is warranted" is good advice for assessing news from any source, not just Wolff. I think what that author means is "Wolff has a reputation for making things up, which is something you should be aware of while reading this text".
 
The Don said:
President Trump must be doing something right.

According to Gallup (yes I know they are flawed, but find me a better source that produces weekly figures split by party affiliation and I'll use it) his approval rating (39%) is higher now than at any point in the last 6 months, his approval rating among Republicans has risen from 77% to 82% in two weeks, among independents from 31% to 34% and even among Democrats from 7% to 9% in that same period.

http://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx

It seems odd to me, but it seems that getting an allegedly wildly unpopular tax bill passed has improved his approval rating significantly :confused:

  • Is the tax bill actually far more popular than we have been led to believe ?
  • Do people in the US approve of politicians who get things done, even if they are things they don't want ?
Click to expand...

I think it's more likely that the results are just normal fluctuation, margin of error. I always hesitate to 'explain' something that may just be noise.

FiveThirtyEight has a weighted average using a mix of up to 30 polls. If you look a the trendlines, this movement is pretty much within the usual background fluctuation.

[How unpopular is Donald Trump?]

And be sure to check out the comparison to other presidents at the bottom of the page. Talking about these tiny bumps here and there is ignoring the fact that this is shaping up to be the least popular president of any president we have scores for.
 
Captain_Swoop said:
His lawyers said Mr Bannon had broken his employment agreement by speaking to Wolff about Mr Trump and his family, "disclosing confidential information" and "making disparaging statements and in some cases outright defamatory statements to Mr Wolff about Mr Trump, his family members, and the Company", the letter said.
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What company?
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
Guess it didn't dawn on them they might have considered slander instead.
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Probably would have even less chance of working, since
1) Trump is a public figure, which means there is even more leeway given to freedom of speech
2) The one who would have had a Non-disclosure agreement was Bannon. However, Bannon seems to be targeting others besides Trump, so Trump and his legal team may not have standing to go after Bannon.
 
The main problem that I see for Trump is that if Trump does try to legally surpress the book on the grounds that what is in the book because:

The book violates a non-disclosure agreement,
The book discusses personal conversations,
The book provides personal details,
or some such other thing,

Then Trump has, in effect, confirmed what is actually in the book.
 
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