Who will win the Alabama Senate special election?

[LTC8K6]

Maybe the Trump voters didn't have ID's?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

You posted:


So I was just looking at the write-in numbers since SoS mentioned them.
They shouldn't matter, unless there's something we don't know about the ballots in AL. Are there any mail in ballots or early voting ballots that would not have been counted yet?

My point was he was dragging his feet, not that he had a legit case for a potential automatic recount.

 

[Cl1mh4224rd]

Are you guys confusing absentee ballots with write ins or military ballots? Because the write ins will not change the gap between Moore and Jones.

That's what it sounds like...

Write-in candidate:

A write-in candidate is a candidate in an election whose name does not appear on the ballot, but for whom voters may vote nonetheless by writing in the person's name.​

The focus on certifying the write-ins is a delaying tactic, I think; either delaying the official call, or delaying the constituents' "grief" by giving them a little false hope for a last-second win.

 

[WilliamSeger]

Turnout was massive, apparently. Over 40%.

Extreme voter suppression didn't work very well.

Not for lack of trying.

 

[EventHorizon]

That's what it sounds like...

Write-in candidate:

A write-in candidate is a candidate in an election whose name does not appear on the ballot, but for whom voters may vote nonetheless by writing in the person's name.​

And according to the Alabama Secretary of State, the absentee ballots have already been counted (those are actually the first votes reported according to him). Only the military ballots remain.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

https://ballotpedia.org/Recount_laws_in_Alabama

According to TV reports, results won't be certified for a couple weeks, after absentee ballots are counted, challenges are resolved, etc. Then there's a recount if the final numbers are close enough.

That's not my confusion, my confusion was over statements that the write-ins could change the margin of victory.

Now it appears people are conflating write-ins with absentee ballots.

 

[LTC8K6]

And according to the Alabama Secretary of State, the absentee ballots have already been counted (those are actually the first votes reported according to him). Only the military ballots remain.

That's that then.

Moore will have to concede and hopefully that's the end of his "public service" career.

 

[lobosrul5]

Turnout was massive, apparently. Over 40%.

Extreme voter suppression didn't work very well.

Which would be abnormally low in nearly any other democracy.

 

[acbytesla]

I'm betting that Donald Trump will graciously say the people of Alabama have spoken and that he is looking forward to working with Doug Jones.

 

[EventHorizon]

That's that then.

Moore will have to concede and hopefully that's the end of his "public service" career.

He can ride that horse into the sunset (though it sure looked more like that horse was riding him earlier today).

 

[thaiboxerken]

Maybe the Trump voters didn't have ID's?

It would be hilarious if that turned out to be the case!

 

[LTC8K6]

Which would be abnormally low in nearly any other democracy.

I checked and a 40% turnout is not that unusual for Alabama.

Look what was predicted:

Alabama's top election official estimates that turnout for the hotly contested U.S. Senate election now underway will likely be around 18 to 20 percent of registered voters.

Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill tells The Associated Press there's also a chance that turnout for the special election could be as high as 25 percent.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/latest-t...uld-reach-25-percent-142816299--election.html

 

[bruto]

Christian fundamentalism is a very old and totalist echo-chamber. They literally don't let their kids read "secular" books, or listen to "secular music", or watch any "secular" media. Just Jesus Camp stuff all day every day.

And that apparently includes that damned secular constitution.

 

[WilliamSeger]

Congratulations to the poll winners, by the way:
Crazy Chainsaw, GlennB, Phoenix, portlandatheist, snoop_doxie

 

[PhantomWolf]

Which would be abnormally low in nearly any other democracy.

Not for a by-election, as we'd call it.

Our last ones...

Electorate|Year of By-Election|Voter Turnout
Mt Albert|2017|27.6%
Mount Roskill|2016|39.7%
Northland|2015|64.4%
Christchurch East|2013|41.5%
Ikaroa-Rāwhiti|2013|33.1%
Te Tai Tokerau|2011|41.4%

 

[Segnosaur]

Voter Turnout: 40.46%

No one came close to predicting that.

Well, the Democrats did have to bus in a lot of illegal aliens from California to vote for Jones...

(Just kidding...)

 

[Foolmewunz]

Well, Moore did not even get half the votes Trump got in AL.

Elections in non-presidential years do not get that great a turnout in any state regardless of who the local candidates are.

Presidential Turnout 2016 - 2 million - And about 2 million plus voted in the Senatorial election on the same ballot.

You can't compare 2014 as Jefferson The Traitor Elf ran unopposed.

Presidential Turnout 2012 - 2 million - no senatorial election
Turnout 2010 in off-year senatorial election - 1.4 million

Turnout 2008 Presidential - 2.0 million
2008 Senatorial - 2.0 million

About half a million don't show up if only the state posts are under consideration. But there is no more or less turnout for this one, even with all the controversy. 1.3 million voted. Same as to 2010 off-year, but better than the 2014 Sessions unopposed.

That is why you cannot compare Moore/Trump or Jones/Clinton. This is why mathematicians invented ratios and percentages, perhaps. Jones didn't get the votes Clinton got but when you consider the 700,000 lower voter turnout, you wind up with a victory.

This is all just an exercise in "Fahgeddaboutit!" There's no positive Republican spin to put on tonight. The only positive Republican spin on the November off-off-year elections was "Hey, we won in Conservaville, Reactionary Creek and Deplorable Town." Trump carried them to losses elsewhere and lead the way in Alabama. Beaten by Moore in Alabama, he then pretends to have liked him all along and got behind a real winner, a winner he couldn't condemn because he's accused of the exact same things, so he loses twice in Alabama.... in one year.

Losing! It's not just for breakfast anymore!

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

He can ride that horse into the sunset (though it sure looked more like that horse was riding him earlier today).

It did look like that horse was going to buck him off. Calm, cool collected riding it was not.

 

[Foolmewunz]

Well, the Democrats did have to bus in a lot of illegal aliens from California to vote for Jones...

(Just kidding...)

Naaah, they voted from Pensacola, which according to Trump-think is the same as being in Alabama. Why would he hold a rally in Florida for the Alabama election, you ask? Simple he's got those good old alt-righters in Pensacola willing to give him the space for free and his staff put together the rally in a hurry because Donnie Johnny was having a bad week and they had to get him out to the mindless (and witless and largely toothless) adoring panhandle throngs.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Congratulations to the poll winners, by the way:
Crazy Chainsaw, GlennB, Phoenix, portlandatheist, snoop_doxie

On behalf of those of us who voted "too close to call" I accept the honorable mention trophy.