Who will win the Alabama Senate special election?

[phunk]

I just watched Roy Moore spokesman Ted Crockett on with Jake Tapper. The man is an idiot. Crockett said that Moore was against Muslims serving in public office because it would be hypocritical for a Muslim to take the oath of office swearing in on the Bible.

He also said that Moore was in favor of making homosexual acts illegal. And that we should be following the Mosaic law. Tapper then asked him what the penalty should be and the guy dodged it. I wish Tapper had followed up on that answer by saying Mosaic law says that we are to stone him and if we should do that.

I saw that, and just... wow.

 

[acbytesla]

Not only that, but the gap is actually now close to the write in total.

What difference does that make? Nobody 'writes in' a name that is on the ballot.

 

[lobosrul5]

What difference does that make? Nobody 'writes in' a name that is on the ballot.

I have to wonder if they count or not.

 

[kellyb]

I saw that, and just... wow.

I know how they think, and they like the "community building" "community participation" aspect of stoning, as opposed to some masked executioner.

The theocrats are scary, scary people.

 

[phiwum]

Have the write in votes even been counted yet?

Probably not as they are simply counted as write in votes?

No, they haven't been counted yet, and it is conceivable they could trigger an automatic recount, but the odds are well against it.

You're sounding a bit desperate, frankly.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I just watched Roy Moore spokesman Ted Crockett on with Jake Tapper. The man is an idiot. Crockett said that Moore was against Muslims serving in public office because it would be hypocritical for a Muslim to take the oath of office swearing in on the Bible.

He also said that Moore was in favor of making homosexual acts illegal. And that we should be following the Mosaic law. Tapper then asked him what the penalty should be and the guy dodged it. I wish Tapper had followed up on that answer by saying Mosaic law says that we are to stone him and if we should do that.

Love the clip they are playing where he's stunned for 8 seconds when told you are not required to swear on the Bible to be sworn into office. These people really do live in a revisionist history world.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

No, they haven't been counted yet, and it is conceivable they could trigger an automatic recount, but the odds are well against it..

How?

Please share that math with me, curious minds want to learn. See also my post #459.

 

[phiwum]

What difference does that make? Nobody 'writes in' a name that is on the ballot.

If enough write-ins are eliminated (invalid candidate, for instance), then the percentage difference between Moore and Jones shrinks.

But you'd have to toss an awful lot of write-ins to shrink it to less than 1/2 %.

 

[EventHorizon]

Are you guys confusing absentee ballots with write ins or military ballots? Because the write ins will not change the gap between Moore and Jones.

 

[kellyb]

Love the clip they are playing where he's stunned for 8 seconds when told you are not required to swear on the Bible to be sworn into office. These people really do live in a revisionist history world.

Christian fundamentalism is a very old and totalist echo-chamber. They literally don't let their kids read "secular" books, or listen to "secular music", or watch any "secular" media. Just Jesus Camp stuff all day every day.

 

[LTC8K6]

Whether the write-ins are all certified or none of them are certified, it will not change the margin Jones has over Moore.

Please tell me what I am missing in your post about automatic recounts?

You posted:

plus the Alabama Sec of State is talking some garbage about the write-ins need to be certified and then there could be a recount

So I was just looking at the write-in numbers since SoS mentioned them.
They shouldn't matter, unless there's something we don't know about the ballots in AL. Are there any mail in ballots or early voting ballots that would not have been counted yet?

 

[Loss Leader]

Congratulations to Alabama. A bare plurality appeared to actually care about the morality of their candidate. I would have liked Jones to win by 96 points as people turn away from the man who had twice been removed from office four failing to carry out the rule of law. But 49% is good enough.

 

[LTC8K6]

Are you guys confusing absentee ballots with write ins or military ballots? Because the write ins will not change the gap between Moore and Jones.

Absentee, that's the word I was looking for.

Maybe SoS meant those?

 

[lobosrul5]

If enough write-ins are eliminated (invalid candidate, for instance), then the percentage difference between Moore and Jones shrinks.

But you'd have to toss an awful lot of write-ins to shrink it to less than 1/2 %.

Throwing out every single write in would only widen the margin (slightly).

 

[Bob001]

How?

Please share that math with me, curious minds want to learn. See also my post #459.

Under Alabama state law, a recount is automatically ordered when a candidate wins by no more than 0.5 percent of all votes cast for the office. Automatic recounts must begin within 72 hours after results are certified.[3]

https://ballotpedia.org/Recount_laws_in_Alabama

According to TV reports, results won't be certified for a couple weeks, after absentee ballots are counted, challenges are resolved, etc. Then there's a recount if the final numbers are close enough.

 

[kellyb]

Congratulations to Alabama. A bare plurality appeared to actually care about the morality of their candidate. I would have liked Jones to win by 96 points as people turn away from the man who had twice been removed from office four failing to carry out the rule of law. But 49% is good enough.

Please remember that the "bare plurality" includes folks who overcome probably the most extreme voter suppression in the western world.

 

[LTC8K6]

Congratulations to Alabama. A bare plurality appeared to actually care about the morality of their candidate. I would have liked Jones to win by 96 points as people turn away from the man who had twice been removed from office four failing to carry out the rule of law. But 49% is good enough.

Well, Moore did not even get half the votes Trump got in AL.

 

[WilliamSeger]

If enough write-ins are eliminated (invalid candidate, for instance), then the percentage difference between Moore and Jones shrinks.

But you'd have to toss an awful lot of write-ins to shrink it to less than 1/2 %.

I think you got that backwards; If the total votes goes down and the gap stays the same, the percentage difference goes up.

 

[phiwum]

Throwing out every single write in would only widen the margin (slightly).

Quite right, I'm mathematically inept.

 

[LTC8K6]

Please remember that the "bare plurality" includes folks who overcome probably the most extreme voter suppression in the western world.

Turnout was massive, apparently. Over 40%.

Extreme voter suppression didn't work very well.