Brexit: Now What? Part IV

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ceptimus said:
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It's the remain side that can't or won't say what they want. Of course what they really want is to remain, but given that we're leaving they don't seem to be able to suggest any coherent alternative arrangements that they can agree on.
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You are upset that the people who tried to talk you out of doing something really stupid aren't fixing your stupidity for you?
 
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No matter how much you want to negotiate and conclude the negotiations, you can't do it if the other side doesn't want to.

At the moment the EU just want offers of cash - and aren't prepared to say what we may or may not get in return for the cash until the size of the bribe has been agreed. They're not even willing to begin talking about trade till they've maximized the amount of money they can extort. They may just as well say, "We refuse to negotiate" as that is what their current negotiating tactics amount to.
 
quadraginta said:
You are upset that the people who tried to talk you out of doing something really stupid aren't fixing your stupidity for you?
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They need to start putting some figures on paper: "You can have trade with these specified tariff levels so long as you continue to pay us twenty billion Euros per year." That sort of thing.

Once we can see the size of the bill for maintaining "Free" trade (or the nearest thing to free they'll allow) we can decide whether or not it's worth it.
 
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ceptimus said:
No matter how much you want to negotiate and conclude the negotiations, you can't do it if the other side doesn't want to.

At the moment the EU just want offers of cash - and aren't prepared to say what we may or may not get in return for the cash until the size of the bribe has been agreed. They're not even willing to begin talking about trade till they've maximized the amount of money they can extort. They may just as well say, "We refuse to negotiate" as that is what their current negotiating tactics amount to.
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The Brexit bill they're trying to negotiate has nothing to do with what you get in return, its about existing commitments and pensions. They're absolutely right not to move on any future relationship until they see whether or not the British are going to act in good faith about the ending of the existing relationship.
 
quadraginta said:
April Fools' Day is going take on an entirely different meaning in 2019 in the U.K.?
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To be fair, the Financial year starts on that date, and we are used to new government initiatives starting then, but yes.
 
Strawberry said:
The Brexit bill they're trying to negotiate has nothing to do with what you get in return, its about existing commitments and pensions. They're absolutely right not to move on any future relationship until they see whether or not the British are going to act in good faith about the ending of the existing relationship.
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I wonder how many times now I've seen this exact point covered.
 
Strawberry said:
The Brexit bill they're trying to negotiate has nothing to do with what you get in return, its about existing commitments and pensions. They're absolutely right not to move on any future relationship until they see whether or not the British are going to act in good faith about the ending of the existing relationship.
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If it was about existing commitments we would be able to calculate the amount. The fact that no one will specify an amount is very telling.

May has already said that we will pay what we legally owe - but that is not good enough for the EU side.

Anyway, from a UK perspective it would be stupid to agree to pay, say, forty billion euros to begin trade talks, only to find that the trade talks result in no deal. Cheaper to just crash out, when people on both sides have already admitted that the continuing payments to the EU will then be little or nothing.

The EU must know this. We're not going to give them tens of billions of Euros that we don't have to unless we get something in return. They're either hoping that we will be stupid enough to do that, or they're hoping that by stalling the process for long enough it will get cancelled and then they'll be able to continue to suck on the UK money teat indefinitely.
 
ceptimus said:
If it was about existing commitments we would be able to calculate the amount. The fact that no one will specify an amount is very telling.



...snip...
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Wow!

In that case you must be able to tell me when Nigel Farage will die.

I'll not ask you for the actual day or even month - just the year please.
 
ceptimus said:
If it was about existing commitments we would be able to calculate the amount. The fact that no one will specify an amount is very telling.

May has already said that we will pay what we legally owe - but that is not good enough for the EU side.

Anyway, from a UK perspective it would be stupid to agree to pay, say, forty billion euros to begin trade talks, only to find that the trade talks result in no deal. Cheaper to just crash out, when people on both sides have already admitted that the continuing payments to the EU will then be little or nothing.

The EU must know this. We're not going to give them tens of billions of Euros that we don't have to unless we get something in return. They're either hoping that we will be stupid enough to do that, or they're hoping that by stalling the process for long enough it will get cancelled and then they'll be able to continue to suck on the UK money teat indefinitely.
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The EU has already presented its formula to calculate the figure Britain owes on the way out the door, its the UK who hasn't responded with a formula of their own or an agreement to the EU's one.

May's agreement to pay what they owe is nice and vague but doesn't get anywhere near agreeing what they do legally owe.

Crashing out with no deal is not a viable option for the UK, for reasons that have been amply explained to you in this thread. The EU know this, which is why they're not rolling over for Britain's bullying demand that they negotiate a trade deal before deciding on the divorce agreement. Sooner or later, Britain will have to get real, stop posturing, and deal with the three issues the EU wants dealt with - money, people, and Ireland.

Only then will trade negotiations start.
 
You're saying no one can calculate the cost of pension plan without a time machine to know when that person will die?

And it's not just one person - it will be averaged over hundreds (thousands?) of them. That's what actuarial tables are for.

Give me a break. This is supposed to be a critical thinking forum. Start thinking critically.
 
It would be simplest and cheapest to just cancel the pensions of MEPs. They'll have the standard old age pension and means tested benefits to fall back on - just like the people who would otherwise be paying for their bloated pensions. Most of them are probably pretty wealthy anyway. Farage could just write a few books (or have some hack ghost write them for him) if and when he finds he can't afford food and shelter.
 
jimbob said:
How I stopped worrying and learned to love Brexit
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There’s a great lesson about this in Alice in Wonderland – the classic story of a little girl exploring a post-fact world. I’m sure you remember the bit in which the Queen tells Alice that you can believe pretty much anything if you practise: “When I was your age, I always did it for half-an-hour a day. Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.” This is good advice for everyone. Instead of starting your day with mindfulness exercises, start by practising mindlessness. Once you’ve increased your capacity for tolerating nonsense you’ll find Brexit starts to make a lot more sense.
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Words to live by.

We can use this here in the States to get us through the Trump Presidency, too.
 
ceptimus said:
You're saying no one can calculate the cost of pension plan without a time machine to know when that person will die?

And it's not just one person - it will be averaged over hundreds (thousands?) of them. That's what actuarial tables are for.

Give me a break. This is supposed to be a critical thinking forum. Start thinking critically.
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That means you are now happy with estimated figures?
 
Strawberry said:
The EU has already presented its formula to calculate the figure Britain owes on the way out the door
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Evidence?

Crashing out with no deal is not a viable option for the UK
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There's some confusion on this.

The nightmare scenario is 'no deals on anything', which is extremely unlikely. This is not the same as no future trade deal.
 
There's a bit of a furore at the moment about leaked accounts in a German newspaper of Theresa May's meeting which was, according to the UK government, so productive.

Theresa May will update MPs about Brexit talks amid a row over an alleged leak about a dinner with EU leaders in Brussels last week.

Her ex-adviser Nick Timothy accused EU official Martin Selmayr of being the source of an account in a German paper claiming Mrs May was politically weak and had "begged for help" at a dinner.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41720244

As usual, the idiots who are mishandling the negotiations are not interested in addressing the issue or indeed progressing the talks but are instead intent on spreading the "poor little Britain being picked on by those horrible Europeans" narrative.
 
The Don said:
There's a bit of a furore at the moment about leaked accounts in a German newspaper of Theresa May's meeting which was, according to the UK government, so productive.
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It's not so much the meeting as Juncker's depiction of May.

Here's the full article translated:

https://medium.com/@ninaschick/brexit-negotiations-not-without-pain-cb3705974bd6

Earlier this week, May and Juncker met again for dinner, this time in Brussels. But now everything was quite different. May did not talk herself up, she begged for help. She talked about the risk she had recently put herself at when she gave up the hard Brexit course, asking the EU for a transitional period of two years, in which everything is going to remain the same. She reminded him that she had moved on the delicate issue of finances. And she told him that, at home, friends and enemies are breathing down her neck, waiting for her to fall. She had no room for manoeuvre, said May — so the Europeans would have to make it for her.
Theresa May seemed anxious to the President of the Commission, despondent and discouraged. A woman who hardly dares trust anybody, but is not ready for an act of liberation either. May’s facial expressions and appearance spoke volumes — that’s how Juncker later described it to his colleagues. Everyone can see it: the Prime Minister is drawn from the struggle within her own party. She has deep circles under her eyes. She looks like someone who does not sleep for nights on end. She rarely laughs, though clearly, she has to for the photographers. But it looks forced. Previously, May could literally pour out laughter — her whole body shaking. Now she has to use her utmost strength to avoid losing her composure.
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