Brexit: Now What? Part IV

[GlennB]

This is a continuation from here. As is usual, posters are free to copy & paste from previous iterations of the thread.

Posted By: Agatha

Poor analogy choice as it implies that some could go down the slide while some remain behind.

This was a group choice. Of those that chose to vote, the majority of the group were in favour and the group leaders subsequently announced that they agreed with the decision and were determined to carry it out. The attitude of most of the group remains, "Just get on with it!" A vocal minority are still trying to reverse the decision by any and all means possible.

But they didn't know about the spike, did they? Being able to take in new information, change one's mind and admit error is the way adults are supposed to behave, not least when the future of the entire country is in peril.

 

[ceptimus]

In terms of your analogy, I think there isn't a spike. Project Fear was warning of knives, rotating blades, boiling oil, demons, and so on - even before the vote was taken. After the result went against their personal preference they've continued to invent other imagined hazards to try to get people to change their minds.

To get back to the real issue, the problem is that the constant moaning by remainers isn't actually preventing the Brexit process - but by dangling the prospect of a non-Brexit in front of the negotiators (on both sides) it is allowing them to be more comfortable with their lack of progress - and this will ultimately benefit no one. It would be much more productive if the people on the losing side of the decision just got on board and helped to make the process as smooth and successful as possible.

 

[Rat]

In terms of your analogy, I think there isn't a spike. Project Fear was warning of knives, rotating blades, boiling oil, demons, and so on - even before the vote was taken. After the result went against their personal preference they've continued to invent other imagined hazards to try to get people to change their minds.

To get back to the real issue, the problem is that the constant moaning by remainers isn't actually preventing the Brexit process - but by dangling the prospect of a non-Brexit in front of the negotiators (on both sides) it is allowing them to be more comfortable with their lack of progress - and this will ultimately benefit no one. It would be much more productive if the people on the losing side of the decision just got on board and helped to make the process as smooth and successful as possible.

The most that 'getting on board' could consist of would be saying nothing. I cannot be cheering it on because I don't believe that any form of it could be anything other than catastrophic, and I have seen no evidence that would suggest otherwise. But you think that when I (rightly or wrongly) see my country as being led into disaster, the right thing for me to do would be to encourage that?

 

[Pixel42]

Apparently the right thing to do if you're locked in a house with people who have just set fire to it is to help them burn it down.

 

[jimbob]

In terms of your analogy, I think there isn't a spike. Project Fear was warning of knives, rotating blades, boiling oil, demons, and so on - even before the vote was taken. After the result went against their personal preference they've continued to invent other imagined hazards to try to get people to change their minds.

To get back to the real issue, the problem is that the constant moaning by remainers isn't actually preventing the Brexit process - but by dangling the prospect of a non-Brexit in front of the negotiators (on both sides) it is allowing them to be more comfortable with their lack of progress - and this will ultimately benefit no one. It would be much more productive if the people on the losing side of the decision just got on board and helped to make the process as smooth and successful as possible.

Er, the problems with the UK leaving the EU will only happen once the UK has left the EU. All that happens beforehand is that people factor in the likely effects and, say the currency gets devalued, so that inflation rises.
to use the slide analogy, we've been on the slide since March 31, 2017 but the ride is only going to get bumpy after March 31, 2019. Pretending anything else is just silly.




As for the problems ahead:

Do you have any idea how many goods are transported between the UK and the EU? Do you have any idea hoe the UK customs are going to deal with this on April 1st 2019? Do you have any idea what is going to happen with flights to the EU27 on April 1st 2019? Do you have any idea what is going to happen with perishable foods travelling either direction on April 1st 2019?

If you do, please could you inform Theresa May. If you do, can you also explain how these are not going to be disasters?


Pretending that this is the fault of the people who are pointing this out is even sillier.

Pretending that Theresa May has a clear negotiating position is rubbish - she is being ambiguous, because as soon as she is clear on her position she'll lose support. However that is not tenable when we have until March 2019 to finalise everything.

ETA: and I have reported this thread for housekeeping as it's getting long

 

[Wudang]

It would be much more productive if the people on the losing side of the decision just got on board and helped to make the process as smooth and successful as possible.

Oh good. How? As a software engineer should I start work on the IT systems for HMRC to handle the WTO tariffs at ports? Perhaps I should hack into the Home Office systems and make them fit for purpose? Either should only take me a few decades. No other bugger seems to be doing it.

This is one of the sillier mantras from brexiteers - that if we all come together and sing Kumbaya all these nasty factsessss will just disappear and we'll begin again in a golden land of opportunity and adventure.

 

[jimbob]

Apparently the right thing to do if you're locked in a house with people who have sprinkled petrol around the house and have got some matches out, but haven't yet lit them is to avoid pointing out that this is a bad idea but that they needn't light the matches have just set fire to it is to help them burn it down.

A slight modification, that makes it less pithy, but I think improves the analogy. Not that yours was incorrect.

 

[ohms]

Oh good. How? As a software engineer should I start work on the IT systems for HMRC to handle the WTO tariffs at ports? Perhaps I should hack into the Home Office systems and make them fit for purpose? Either should only take me a few decades. No other bugger seems to be doing it.

This is one of the sillier mantras from brexiteers - that if we all come together and sing Kumbaya all these nasty factsessss will just disappear and we'll begin again in a golden land of opportunity and adventure.

Indeed, this summers NAO report on the new Customs Declaration Service software made worrying reading.

 

[ceptimus]

Remember the ludicrously-over-hyped "Y2K bug" ? The fears over Brexit are of the same type. Of course, there was nothing that people fearful of Y2K could do to stop it happening - they just had to stock up with essential supplies, retreat to their bunkers and worry. People with similar irrational fears over Brexit think that they might actually stop it happening - and they do their best to convince other people to share in their fears.

I suppose there's nothing to persuade them that they're wrong - they'll see after Brexit how unfounded their fears were, but by then they will have already damaged the process and made things worse for themselves and everyone else. Their doom-laden predictions will push us towards a sort of tragic self-fulfilling prophesy.

The only thing the rest of us can try is to do our best to ignore the nay-sayers and soldier on.

 

[Pixel42]

Speaking as someone who helped fixed it I can confirm that the Y2K bug was real, and would have caused real problems if it hadn't been fixed. The equivalent with Brexit would be to prevent Brexit happening, so the real problems it would cause never materialise.

 

[ohms]

Same. I remember getting my budget approved then fixing/replacing and testing hardware and software months in advance. Pretty much the opposite of what's happening with Brexit where the Customs will be using a system that hasn't been tested at the levels that may be needed after we leave the EU...assuming it can even be delivered on time.

 

[The Don]

Remember the ludicrously-over-hyped "Y2K bug" ? The fears over Brexit are of the same type. Of course, there was nothing that people fearful of Y2K could do to stop it happening - they just had to stock up with essential supplies, retreat to their bunkers and worry. People with similar irrational fears over Brexit think that they might actually stop it happening - and they do their best to convince other people to share in their fears.

That's the typical ill-informed nonsense you hear from people who don't rely on "experts". Like Pixel42, I worked on Y2K-related projects for the best part of a decade. Most of it wasn't critically safety related, mostly it was finance and accounting systems which would have caused major inconvenience but no loss of life.

One notable exception was the amount of effort that went into ensuring that Scottish Hydro's systems would stay online - a lack of electricity would have been disasterous.

The reason why the Y2K was such a damp squib in the end were the millions upon millions of hours of effort put in over the course of decades by highly skilled and experienced engineers, IT professionals, managers, risk planners and so on.....

Tbh it's the same kind of thinking I've heard repeatedly when clients say "I don't know why I bothered to have a project manager, they were a waste of money because nothing went wrong".

 

[Rat]

Indeed I can't take seriously someone who says that the Millennium bug was overhyped nonsense. It was a very serious problem that thousands of people worked hard to put right, and if they hadn't it would indeed have been disastrous.

 

[Hubert Cumberdale]

I suppose there's nothing to persuade them that they're wrong - they'll see after Brexit how unfounded their fears were, but by then they will have already damaged the process and made things worse for themselves and everyone else. Their doom-laden predictions will push us towards a sort of tragic self-fulfilling prophesy.

The only thing the rest of us can try is to do our best to ignore the nay-sayers and soldier on.

Oh yes, its all the remoaners fault that Brexit went wrong. If only they had "got on board"

 

[GlennB]

Remember the ludicrously-over-hyped "Y2K bug" ? The fears over Brexit are of the same type. Of course, there was nothing that people fearful of Y2K could do to stop it happening - they just had to stock up with essential supplies, retreat to their bunkers and worry.

Bilge.

I worked for 12 months solid on Y2K - for one client - to fix s/w problems before they had a chance to bite. And it wasn't legacy software, by any stretch of the imagination. Countless other people did similar work.

eta: And, just in case you were being ironic, Y2K problems within a given system could be identified years in advance. With Brexit we have yet to learn quite what needs fixing.

 

[The Don]

Oh yes, its all the remoaners fault that Brexit went wrong. If only they had "got on board"

Well tbh that's where all the actual expertise is.......

 

[quadraginta]

<snip>




As for the problems ahead:

Do you have any idea how many goods are transported between the UK and the EU? Do you have any idea hoe the UK customs are going to deal with this on April 1st 2019?

Thay have that covered. I read about it in an article posted upthread (Er, last thread).

They're gonna build a parking lot*. Already setting aside the money for it.

Do you have any idea what is going to happen with flights to the EU27 on April 1st 2019?

A really, really big parking lot?

Do you have any idea what is going to happen with perishable foods travelling either direction on April 1st 2019?

<snip>

That's easy. A parking lot with a farmer's market.

--------------------------

*: I'm not sure how that does anything but make space for the problem to get bigger. A parking lot would act as a reservoir, sure, but reservoirs work on the principle that there are periods where the storage can be relieved. If they don't have a system to do that then a parking lot only gives more shipments a place out of the way to wait, until it fills up. If they can't process as fast as the stuff is coming through it won't make any difference. Sooner or later they're gonna run out of parking.

 

[GlennB]

Thay have that covered. I read about it in an article posted upthread (Er, last thread).

They're gonna build a parking lot*. Already setting aside the money for it.

A really, really big parking lot?

That's easy. A parking lot with a farmer's market.
--------------------------

*: I'm not sure how that does anything but make space for the problem to get bigger. A parking lot would act as a reservoir, sure, but reservoirs work on the principle that there are periods where the storage can be relieved. If they don't have a system to do that then a parking lot only gives more shipments a place out of the way to wait, until it fills up. If they can't process as fast as the stuff is coming through it won't make any difference. Sooner or later they're gonna run out of parking.

It's called Kent.

 

[ceptimus]

You're all missing the point again.

The problems with the Y2K bug were real. There was no way of avoiding Y2K so people got on with the job and fixed the problems.

The problems with Brexit are real. Instead of getting on with it and solving the problems people are instead trying to prevent Brexit happening.

To listen to some people talk, there'll be no planes flying on the day after Brexit. Clearly this sort of thing is ludicrous as planes fly between EU and non-EU countries all the time. This is the sort of issue that could be resolved in days if only people got on with the job instead of trying to use the "impossibility" as an excuse to get what they want instead of what the democratic majority wants.

 

[jimbob]

You're all missing the point again.

The problems with the Y2K bug were real. There was no way of avoiding Y2K so people got on with the job and fixed the problems.

The problems with Brexit are real. Instead of getting on with it and solving the problems people are instead trying to prevent Brexit happening.

To listen to some people talk, there'll be no planes flying on the day after Brexit. Clearly this sort of thing is ludicrous as planes fly between EU and non-EU countries all the time. This is the sort of issue that could be resolved in days if only people got on with the job instead of trying to use the "impossibility" as an excuse to get what they want instead of what the democratic majority wants.

This is the remit of the Brexit ministry. Who is in charge of that, a remoner? I thought David 3-day-week Davis was just a lazy dullard with no sense of how far out of his depth he is, I didn't realise he was consciously trying to sabotage Brexit.

I have heard (and it is eminently plausible) that the civil servants in the Brexit ministry are being advised to take copious notes for the inevitable public inquiry once the fiasco has occurred, and people want to know what went wrong.

ETA: The highlighted part. I think it was me that raised this. If the agreements were put in place between the UK and the non-EU countries outwith the remit of the EU, those flights could continue. However there is no such agreement for flights to the EU27. At the moment such flights would be illegal on April 1st 2019. This is one of the many problems that needs to be fixed before we leave. A competent government would have set in place a ministry of Brexit with the remit of scoping out and reporting what needed doing *before* pressing the A50 button. That is not how this government does things.